2009.03.29
Our weather is on an even keel this week
Roanoke had four very even days of rainfall from Wednesday to Saturday: 0.28, 0.26, 0.29 and 0.28. Throw in .04 early today, and that's 1.15 inch of rain ... just about an ideal amount of rain. It only takes about .82 inch of rain a week for us to meet the annual "normal" of 42.49 inches, and getting a little more than that is well and good considering (1) 4 years of deficits totalling more than 30 inches and (2) the likelihood for lengthy dry spells in summer.
Even is a good way to describe the weather pattern ahead. It will not be very warm or very cool, with temperatures most days this week with a few degrees of the normals of highs in the low 60s and lows in the low 40s. The overall jet stream pattern will be "progressive," which means regular low-pressure troughs, or jet stream dips, pushing fronts across the nation at regular intervals. For us, that will mean solid chances of rain Tuesday night/Wednesday and Thursday night/Friday, with neither looking likely to produce torrential downpours or widespread severe thunderstorms.
Yes, spring is looking amazingly "normal" as we reach the end of March and head into April. Quite a contrast from the dizzying seesaw early in the month, with snow, lows in the single digits and teens, and highs in the 80s all within the first week.
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Not only a normal early spring, but a beautiful one, too. These multi-day precip events on 3 of the past 5 weekends have made a huge diff. Also, we got a LOT more rain up here than what RRA received. On two consecutive evenings I checked on what Sugar Loaf Mntn received for the previous 24 hours, and we had received 0.84 the first night and 0.64 on the 2nd evening, which was very late Saturday night as I remember it. Or maybe it was Thursday evening and Friday evening.
In a blog discussion roughly a week ago, someone had pointed out how wonderful it would be (in terms of drought relief) if we were to receive 1.5 inches per week, and both you and I agreed, KM. But that would be slightly over 6 inches per month. Today I looked up the stats for RRA for each of the 36 months between January 2006 and December 2008, and in only one month, June 2006, did we receive at least 6 inches. RRA was inundated for 8.51 inches in that month, with almost 7 inches coming between June 25-28. In only 2 other months, Oct. 2006 and October 2007, did RRA get over 5 inches. Yet in three of those 36 months we got less than an inch, in three others we received between 1 and 1.5 inches, and in six others we received between 1.51 and 2 inches. So in 1/3rd of the 36 months we received less than 2 inches of precip. And in another 7 months we received greater than 2 inches but less than 2.5!!! In 8 of 2008's 12 months we received 2.27 inches or less. I would be happy if we could simply get a string of months going in which we receive at least 3 inches.
Comment by Doug Griggs — March 30, 2009 @ 12:35 am
We got just under an inch and a half total, but we didn;t get hardly anything Saturday like they were calling for. It looked like the storms south of here kept the moisture from moving up, so all we got was some light showers and drizzle, but even the frontal passage was uneventful save for a few sprinkles and some wind. But, looking at this week I see the NWX calling for more rain Tuesday night to Wednesday adding up to a half inch or more, and more toward the end of the week, so keep it coming. I just hope I can get my mower fixed so I can start cutting things down this weekend!
Comment by Other John — March 30, 2009 @ 9:21 am
WOO HOO! Looks like a nice weekend ahead!
Comment by elliot — March 30, 2009 @ 1:23 pm
Kev - The Tue/Wed system seems to be still causing a lot of variance on the models with HPC and NWS keeping tabs on all possibilities. The models diverge significantly on QPF for our area. It looks like we could get off to a good start Tue. night but maybe get dry-slotted if the flow turns more southerly early Wed., or if convection in the south cuts off the flow from the gulf, or maybe the wedge might be stronger and moisture sticks around longer. It's looking like some interesting dynamics for the next several days!
Comment by Julie — March 30, 2009 @ 4:28 pm
It is now 8 PM. Saw a TWC segment on Fargo's situation at 7:25. The cold, sub-freezing weather they are having there now is a blessing in some ways. Makes the sand bags and snow drifts that compose the levies much stronger -- being from Massachusetts, I can vouch for that. Trouble is, they are having a very windy snowstorm (blizzard?) which is causing the water to have waves that pound the dikes, weakening them. And the added snow will melt at some point in the future, thus lengthening the number of days that the Red River will remain above flood stage. But the snowstorm is a lot better than a heavy, mild rainstorm. Stephanie Abrams also reported that all of the previous record floods in Fargo had occurred in April, and of course it is still March this year. If they continue to receive lots of precip, this flood situation could last two weeks or more! Those poor folks. Something like 3 million sandbags were created in the past two weeks.
Comment by Doug Griggs — March 30, 2009 @ 8:12 pm
Wish I could say the same about calm weather here in Denver.
We were expecting flurries to a dusting this morning but ended up with five inches in a short amount of time. The airport was shut down briefly. Numerous wrecks out there on the roads.
Weather changed quickly and without warning. Guess it's time to get used to it.
Comment by Brandon — March 30, 2009 @ 10:38 pm