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If you haven't, be sure and read Mason Adams' story on water levels at area lakes and reservoirs. It does a good job of answering some questions you may have been wondering about regarding how recent rain and snow have affected water tables, and how normal rainfall this spring would put our region in pretty good shape to escape the drought ... provided we have normal rainfall, of course.

You may have also read my Weather Journal column for today, and the two pieces may seem to contradict each other. But note that my column was referring to dryness regionally and nationally over the December to February period, while Mason's story was more about the effects of rain and snow locally over the past 2 1/2 weeks. I probably could have made my last paragraph a little clearer to note that.

Speaking of a dry spell ... I'm taking a few days away from Weather Journal, both the blog and the column. This week's weather looks pretty straightforward: After a warm day today, there will be a few showers with a cold front Thursday, then cooler and dry (50s for highs, 30s for lows Friday) and gradually warming by dry through the weekend.

I will pop back on the blog if something extraordinary happens or is forecast, but otherwise expect me to back on the blog early next week and back in print next Wednesday.

Beyond a chance of showers with a rather average cold front on Thursday, we appear to be in for a long stretch of mild and dry weather through this week and into the early part of next. We might see 70 on Wednesday, but will cool just a bit after that.  There really looks to be no extreme cooldowns or heat waves, or any heavy precipitation makers of any kind, through at least this time next week.

This is just what it looks like on radar: a line of pretty vigorous showers and some thunderstorms. It marks the back edge of today's precipitation shield, and also the location of a weak cold front pressing eastward. These showers and storms may drift into the New River Valley in the next couple of hours and perhaps farther east, even into the Roanoke Valley and points east, after that, but may start to weaken with the downsloping effect east of the Blue Ridge. Don't be surprised to hear some heavy downpours and maybe a few rumbles of thunder with this cluster of showers and storms.

After that, it looks like drier weather will settle in for most of this week, with temperatures pushing into the 60s.

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

While my Monday column in the paper is going to say there won't be much rain this week beyond showers on Thursday, we actually have one more disturbance in this current series yet to come through on Monday afternoon. That could deposit a little more rain onto the widespread 1 to 3 inch totals that have fallen over the region this weekend. (Click "Read More," if you are in full blog mode, to see a 48-hour listing of rainfall totals through 3 p.m. Sunday). Overall, the trend will be toward milder and drier weather through midweek ... until a new cold front brings some showers on Thursday, followed by slightly cooler weather for next weekend that will be close to the seasonl norms of upper 50s for highs and upper 30s for lows.

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Below I have published a list of rainfall totals of an inch or more across the area from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg as of 9:21 a.m.  (Click "Read more" if you are looking at the full blog.) Steady to locally heavy rain is likely to continue for several more hours as moisture continues to override a slowly warming but still cold dome of air at the surface. Yes, it is heavier and more continuous than I indicated was likely in the previous blog entry, as the solid rain shield has worked farther north. All the better, because while it is dreary and chilly, this is much needed drought relief -- not a cure for the long-term deficits, but certainly a help, and major relief for short-term surface dryness.

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UPDATE 12:05 AM: Not much reason to put up a whole new blog post, as today will be similar to Friday and Saturday. Rainfall amounts of a half to 1 inch are common across the area from steady rain in a few waves Saturday. We will likely get another wave or two on Sunday, but it will probably rain less often and lighter amounts, tapering to drizzle. The temperature may struggle all the way into the 40s too. The coming week looks mild and dry. END UPDATE

UPDATE 11 AM, 3/14: The freezing rain advisory has been lifted, though the National Weather Service notes there may still be a few pockets of icing at the highest elevations along the Blue Ridge. For the most part, this is just going to be a cold, raw rain. Roanoke's official high and low temperature on Friday were separated by two degrees (38 and 36) and today won't be much different. Just think ... it was sunny and 83 last Saturday! END UPDATE

UPDATE 10 PM, 3/13: A freezing rain advisory is in effect for most counties north of Roanoke and a string of counties along the Blue Ridge from Roanoke south. The advisory is mostly for higher elevations, but temperatures have dipped a little most everywhere this evening, so it is possible for other local areas to get to 32 and start to see icing from drizzle and light rain. Click here for the latest from the National Weather Service. END UPDATE

What you see is pretty much what you get in terms of weekend weather. Temperatures aloft have warmed up enough that no more snow and sleet is occurring from Roanoke south (and it will be diminishing to the north and west), just cold, dreary rain (and a few pockets of freezing rain at higher elevations). That's going to be the main course for the weekend, as a series of weak disturbances throw moisture over a cold dome of air at the surface. Off-and-on chilly dreariness could linger into Monday, before milder and drier air starts to move in. But folks, we still need the rain.

It's 50 degrees in Roanoke at 4 p.m., but the dew point is 6 degrees. And there lies the issue tonight as we teeter on the edge between a significant snowfall and a cold rain. As moisture continues to stream into the area, precipitation will begin to fall into the very dry air near the surface. The resulting evaporational cooling ... heat being taken out of the air, used to evaporate the moisture ... will cause temperatures to drop throughout the atmosphere. Eventually, the precipitation will reach the surface. If it is below freezing all the way from cloud to very near the ground, snow will fall. Sleet and freezing rain are also possible in pockets, but it is likely that either rain or snow will dominate a given area for a few hours early Friday. The Hydrometoeorlogical Prediction Center is highlighting most of Southwest Virginia, including both the Roanoke and New River valleys, for a slight risk of 4-plus inches of snow tonight and early Friday. That is probably the upper end of what could happen if precipitation falls heavily enough and temperatures cool fast enough. The National Weather Service in Blacksburg is favoring light accumulating snow in counties just north of Roanoke and Blacksburg ... including Botetourt, Alleghany and Rockbridge ... and has issued a winter weather advisory for those counties. Meanwhile, the weather service is calling for mainly a rain-dominated wintry mix in the Roanoke Valley, with more snow in the New River Valley, but minor accumulations of an inch or two.

A factor working against accumulation is the warm state of the ground from several recent days of sunshine, including days near or above 80 degrees. I've seen plenty of cases where snow falls heavily enough to overcome that, but it can be a limiting factor, especially with lighter snow. A factor working for accumulation is the timing of the precipitation in the morning hours. Even though the sun is behind the clouds, its radiation is absorbed by the surface later in the day, and that degree or two is sometimes very critical in whether it snows or not, and how much accumulates.

It's another winter weather cliffhanger as the season stubbornly refuses to give way to spring, even after a small taste of summer. We may not know much about how this one plays out until it starts happening overnight. I don't expect this to be a widespread hazard, but heavier bands of snow could make some areas slick quickly. For those who get snow, it will probably just be a pretty coating on what, in some cases, are already budded trees.

There  is a narrow window of borderline opportunity for possible snow in Southwest Virginia late Thursday night and early Friday. It all depends on the mix of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the depth of cold air following an Arctic cold front. The window, give or take a few hours, is from about midnight Thursday to noon Friday, when moisture overrunning a dome of cold air a the surface could trigger snow, sleet, freezing rain or plain ol' cold rain. More likely, most places will get some mixture of two or more of those precipitation types.

Any snow that falls should be very wet and slushy, with any accumulations primarily on grassy surfaces and exposed objects that don't hold the many days of 70- and even 80-degree heat in. A period of heavy snow might spread the accumulation around more by cooling the air and surface a little more and by falling faster than it can melt for a short period of time, but it looks most of the precipitation will be light to moderate. The higher in elevation you are, the better chance you have at seeing a few inches. Most folks will see an inch or less.

While slightly milder air will overcome the cold enough over the weekend to get us back to all rain, some forecast models depict a possible storm system in the Monday-Wednesday timeframe next week that could again bring some snow to the area. Let's take things one system at a time! It gets harder and harder to snow with each passing day, but it's still possible if the right pieces line up in the sky.

It may be hard to believe with Wednesday's highs near 70, but snow is back in the forecast as soon as Friday. A cold front moving through Wednesday night will return chilly air to the region, with Thursday's highs possibly not topping 50 and Friday's highs struggling to crack 40. Meanwhile, some Gulf of Mexico moisture will overrun that new cold air at the surface Thursday night and Friday, and, especially overnight into the morning hours, it may be cold enough for some snow. Don't expect anything like last time ... this looks pretty weak and temperatures will even be more marginal than before ... but some wet snowflakes may plop down. The overrunning Gulf of Mexico air will gradually warm things over the weekend just enough to get us out of snow-making temperatures, so any snow threat will probably be brief and probably wont' accumulate much.

There could be another shot of snow showers late Tuesday into Wednesday with a new cold front. That one doesn't look like too much either, from this distance.

Today and Wednesday should be mild to warm, with highs ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. Thursday will likely be in the 50s, but the 60s can't be ruled out. Beyond that, colder than normal weather begins to leak back into our region, and it's likely to hang on for about a week. Keep in mind that normals this time of year are highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid 30s, so below normal doesn't necessarily be frigid. It looks like there might be some wet periods during the cold spell. Some snow can't be ruled out, but some chilly rain is more likely.

By the way ... in case you missed it ... here's how the snowfall prediction contest is shaking out right now. If you're a legal adult, you're out of the running!