2009.05.18
Storm Chase 2009: Delayed on the launch pad
Each of the last four years on the annual storm chase trip, we have had some period of time that resembles the current weather pattern: strong western/central U.S. high pressure, deep dip in the jet stream to the east, cold front entering or crossing the Gulf of Mexico. Such a pattern shuts down the typical spring thunderstorm pattern in the central U.S., as moisture flow from the Gulf is cut off and storm systems from the west that could trigger severe weather are largely blocked by high pressure.
Last year, we sat out a 7-day mid-trip lull similar to this pattern. Dead periods lasting 3 to 5 days occurred in the 2005, 2006 and 2007 trips.
But this year, Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll and I, after days of watching forecast models converge on a solution that would almost inevitably lead to several days of quiet weather, made the unprecedented decision to delay the trip four days, leaving on Thursday and remaining out as much as four days later than scheduled on the back end. We expect to return on or before June 3.
Part of the decision to delay was simply because we could, due to the scheduling flexibility of everyone on board. The biggest reason is that this pattern looks especially negative for severe storm development, essentially anywhere east of the Rockies. An added factor is the potential for a strong low to develop in the Gulf of Mexico later this week, which threatens to further cut off moisture return flow to the Plains that would otherwise be expected to develop.
There was no point spending four days worth of gas and lodging, with the chances of significant storms appearing to be just about nil, when we could save that for four more days at the end of the trip, when the pattern might be different. There is no guarantee of that, and the forecast models are offering very mixed signals, none of which, as of now, portend any kind of classic severe weather outbreaks.
But, as Dave likes to say, we don't need an outbreak, just one supercell.
Prospects for storms in the open Plains do begin to increase by late this week into the weekend, though in some atypical ways that do not scream "severe" at us. That's when we'll go and roll the dice. Storm chasing is always a gamble based on our best guesses at uncertain factors. We learn from the hits and misses.
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I'd be very interested if a meteorology program developed at VT. I started at NC State and they have a program, but I transferred to VT after my first year and took the intro class while I was here. I've always loved weather, and if the program came to reality, I'd be inclined to at least take a few classes to learn some more, or maybe see about getting a degree in it, finally.
Comment by Other John — May 18, 2009 @ 1:14 pm
You could end up on one of these trips, Other John. It's a 3-hour VT course, now. The offerings for meteorology are already expanding. I could get you in touch with Dave Carroll if you want to know more.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — May 18, 2009 @ 1:34 pm
I'm an undergrad currently and plan on going to grad school to study meteorology. I'm in Richmond and plan on going to VCU after I get my AS, but I'd be willing to come back to Blacksburg if a meteorology BS program appeared. I took a meteorology class in high school with Dave Carroll way back in the day and loved it.
Comment by DanGo — May 18, 2009 @ 1:54 pm
Though well intended, VT adding a meteorology degree program may be doing a disservice to students that graduate with a meteorology degree (both at VT and elsewhere), and the profession in general.
I have worked as a professional meteorologist for 29 years, 15 of which I was directly responsible for hiring at the organization I spent most of my career with. Starting in the mid/late 1980’s (four years after The Weather Channel first went on the air) the meteorology profession saw a noticeable uptick in the number of graduates with a meteorology degree. As a result, there are far, far, FAR more individuals seeking a job in the meteorology profession then there are jobs to go around. This remains the case today. At one point in time I would receive a handful of resumes whenever a job listing was posted. More recently, the number of resumes received in response to a listing is closer to 40.
When I speak to a young person interested in studying meteorology, I encourage him/her to consider a second major in addition to their weather curricula. The odds of finding a job in the weather business are stacked against them. And not just in difficult economic times. This has been the case year in, year out, for more than two decades. Having a second degree to fall back on will serve them well.
I fully understand that it is the job of those that make decisions at colleges and universities to do what they feel is appropriate to increase their business, i.e. draw students to their school. However adding to the number of individuals seeking a job in a field that already has many more candidates than jobs, is adding to an ever-growing list of students with a meteorology degree working outside of their chosen field.
Comment by Jp — May 19, 2009 @ 7:07 am
Thanks for letting me know Kevin. I'll have to keep an eye on the course offerings and see if I can squeeze any of them in. Most likely, I'll have to wait a while due to schedule conflicts, but I'd still love the chance to take more classes and broaden my knowledge, and even get to participate in one of these events in the future.
Comment by Other John — May 19, 2009 @ 9:27 am
Interesting point, Jp. I don't really have the information at hand to really agree or disagree with your point. My degree is in journalism, which may have its own struggles for future graduates in the changing media/economic scene. Personally, for many reasons, I am very glad I went into journalism as a career rather than meteorology (though in a way I get to both now!), so I understand your case for recommending another degree for students.
I suppose one thing I would say is that, from the standpoint of the state of Virginia, why should state residents who are interested in such a degree program, whatever its merits for future employment, be required to go to North Carolina or Pennsylvania to get such a degree and not be able to do so in-state?
The proximity of the National Weather Service to Tech (potential joint research, internships, etc.) and the desire to take a different focus on emerging technologies than traditional meteorology programs appear to be driving forces in the push for a meteorology program at Tech. Perhaps Tech's geography department believes it can come up with something new that will give its graduates an edge.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — May 19, 2009 @ 10:36 am