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Weather Journal

Storm Chase Day 1: Where do we gamble?

Click here for more on the trip from the Virginia Tech "Hokie Storm Chasers" site

DALE, Ind. -- "Every hand's a winner, and every hand's a loser," sang Kenny Rogers in his 1980s hit song "The Gambler."

In storm chasing, we know that every hand can be a loser. Even in the most potent tornado outbreaks, veteran chasers are sometimes left behind without much to show for the day because of bad positioning, sudden changes in the weather pattern, or just bad luck.

This year's hand dealt by the weather pattern is full of junk (for storm chasers ... residents in Tornado Alley are pleased!). Almost every conceivable factor that could be working against large-scale severe weather in the central U.S. has been in play. But can that hand prove to be a winner for the Virginia Tech Storm Chase team? We've managed to pull off spectacular supercells every year despite being dealt some very poor cards.

We see a few clues that could lead to a little bit of heightened interest in the High Plains, all the way from Dakotas to northeast New Mexico. But pinpointing an area that might have at least an outside shot at severe, preferably rotating, storms is extremely difficult. It's a big gamble. Tomorrow, we will try to set ourselves up to move toward an area that might have a better chance of severe weather come Saturday and Sunday.

Tonight, we're in Dale, Ind. We ate a good home-style, Midwestern meal at Windell's Cafe in Dale. We met tonight and looked over some weather parameters, and will again in the morning before deciding on where to roll the dice. Tomorrow will be a travel day, and, hopefully, if we gamble correctly, we will be chasing something thunderous on Saturday.

4 Comments »

  1. I hope you guys get to see something.

    Comment by Brandon R. — May 22, 2009 @ 2:48 pm

  2. kevin i am posting the same question here in case you dont see the other one from the blog about memorial day weekend. i am supposed to go fishing at lake robertson monday morning probably around 9 or 9:30. what do you think the weather will be like and how much rain do you think we will have to dodge.

    Comment by jacob — May 22, 2009 @ 10:19 pm

  3. I'm curious what type of internet access (if any) y'all have while chasing in your vehicles. Do you use EVDO cards or some other type of technology for connectivity?
    Thanks

    Comment by Wayles — May 22, 2009 @ 11:05 pm

  4. Wayles: We use Autonet, an in-vehicle mobile router that attaches to the cigarette lighter and works on cell phone signals. We were a beta-tester for Autonet last year, and have continued to use it, as it greatly simplifies our Internet needs.

    Comment by Kevin Myatt — May 23, 2009 @ 1:03 am

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About this blog

    Mug of Kevin Myatt

    Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States."

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Comments

    • Other John: I saw that during my lunch break, they also have it projected to turn more toward Florida than going due...
    • Kevin Myatt: Current National Hurricane Center forecasts expect shear and cool water in the northern Gulf of Mexico...
    • Kevin Myatt: I would wonder if the upper-air pattern over the U.S. would shear it too much for it to be a hurricane....
    • Other John: They now show it emerging in the Gulf by early next week and moving northward toward the AL/MS coastal...
    • Other John: We definitely fell to below freezing overnight and had a solid coating of frost on everything when I left...