2009.05.24
Storm Chase Day 3: Good forecast, busted chase
OGALLALA, Neb. -- We targeted North Platte, Neb., for possible severe weather today.
This afternoon, a tornado touched down 15 miles east of North Platte, very close to Interstate 80.
But we weren't there.
We made a decision to sink south into better instability as showers and weak storms began to fire along a diffuse boundary between warm and cool air. It would prove not to be a good decision.
It was doubtful we would have been well placed to view the brief tornado even if we had headed west. But the only severe storms -- marginal as they were -- in the region occurred in Southwest Nebraska. We were not there, even though our initial forecasting was very good on where the best chance of severe storms would be in this extremely severe-challenged weather pattern.
Lesson learned: Don't venture too far away from the frontal boundary in this environment of limited shear and limited instability. Storms can't survive without the help that boundary provides.
We'll likely try again Sunday, probably somewhere in western Nebraska, eastern Wyoming or southern South Dakota, as the boundary lifts back to the north. Conditions for severe weather look slightly greater, but still marginal.
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Not only that, some of these storms were unusual in terms of direction. I don't think I've chased too many storms moving to the NORTHWEST. With these crazy storms and limited road networks, you gotta keep thinking on your feet to see anything at all!
Comment by Seth Price — May 24, 2009 @ 2:00 am
kevin what do you yhink the weayjer will be like for lexington tomorrow say from 8:00 til 4:00. its not going to be a washout is it, just hit and miss showers
Comment by chris — May 24, 2009 @ 7:02 am
Chris: The earlier the better for Lexington on Monday. Showers and storms will be building through the day and may be widespread by afternoon. That's my best stab at it looking at weather data but currently being 2,000 miles away.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — May 24, 2009 @ 9:21 am
Seth: Agree entirely. With such weak steering currents, it's not much different than pulse storms in the East in mid-summer. We just got locked into a duller period for severe weather. It happens.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — May 24, 2009 @ 9:32 am
kevin from what i am seeing on radar it looks like one part of the storm is moving west of us and the other part may just clip us if the radar continues moving in the way it is right now. is there a possiblity that we may not get as many showers as they are predicting?
Comment by rob — May 24, 2009 @ 1:09 pm
i agree with rob
Comment by jeff — May 24, 2009 @ 1:17 pm
kevin from what i am seeing on radar on part of the storm is heading west and appers to stay to the west of us and the other part might clip us but dosent look badl is there a chance that we might not have as many showers as they are predicting
Comment by rob — May 24, 2009 @ 1:27 pm