2009.06.18
Some storm risk, but likely drier the next couple of days
Although there is a slight risk of severe weather today, it may in fact be a drier day overall today with the bulk of rain and storms both east and west of Southwest Virginia. Friday, during the day, also looks fairly dry for now, with only scattered showers and thunderstorms. But there is growing concern that severe weather organizing in the Ohio Valley on Friday will affect the region Friday night and Saturday, which could mean another shot of widespread heavy rain, too, before cooler and drier air settles in for early next week.
Here's a link to a story in today's Roanoke Times about rising rivers in the area
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One caveat is that these storm clusters forming in the Ohio Valley and Upper Mississippi Valley can each change the dynamics a little bit. The one in Indiana this morning appears likely to dive southward toward eastern Kentucky instead of more this direction. If any of these take a different turn or change the dynamics in some way to foster storms farther east (such as throwing out an outflow boundary that triggers new storms), the weather over Southwest Virginia could become stormy fairly rapidly. Still ... likely to be between the larger storm clusters today.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — June 18, 2009 @ 10:15 am
Been watching the progress of the cluster coming through KY, and while Roanoke areas ought to stay dry, it appears that the eastern edge will catch the western parts of the NRV. Still can't determine if it will graze Pulaski County or not, but it certainly looks like Wytheville and west will get rained on today.
Comment by Other John — June 18, 2009 @ 3:46 pm
The question lurking for late tomorrow is not whether we will get grazed, but whether the core of one of these bow echoes will roar across the mountains into western Virginia ... jury is still out, waiting to see how today's activity sets up in the upper Midwest.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — June 18, 2009 @ 5:55 pm
Has been relatively tame this afternoon; we'll have to see how the downslope component, in conjunction w/ the lingering moisture, will combine w/compression to form T-storms this afternoon or evening. Doesn't look like much right now. Never the less, tomorrow is another day (as Scarlet O'Harra would say) and we'll have to wait and see what the afternoon MCS from OH Valley brings our way... Derecho now removed from NWS discussion. Will be an interesting afternoon, no doubt!
Comment by Julie — June 18, 2009 @ 8:46 pm
That was an interesting article about the area rivers. I'm wondering how much more rain it would take to really cause some severe problems.
Comment by Brandon R. — June 19, 2009 @ 1:06 am
Ther next closest system looks to miss north. After that, not a lot is organized yet, but I'll be keeping an eye on things, I have some work to do outside later today,
Comment by Other John — June 19, 2009 @ 8:35 am
Glancing back at the Radar loop, and considering how the system yesterday behaved, I'd say Roanoke and maybe the NRV both have a good shot of being clipped this afternoon. The system yesterday fired a bunch of new storms to the south of the main system, and on the current track, the SW edge of the existing system would just catch the eastern parts of the area. If any new storms fire like yesterday as the system progresses SE, I'd say we could get a quick shot of some heavy rain and wind. We did get some rain yesterday, just 0.02 inches, but it was pretty breezy before that went through. The eastern edge of the storm even brought sprinkles to parts of Montgomery County.
Comment by Other John — June 19, 2009 @ 9:35 am