2009.06.26
Maybe not hot as a firecracker for the Fourth of July
The weather pattern has been pretty stagnant this week, with hot high pressure in the south-central U.S. deflecting any fronts and significant storm systems up and over it. Here in Southwest Virginia, we've been on the eastern edge of the high, so we've not really got into the really hot stuff but have been a little above normal with very little rain, the most occurring today with a few scattered thunderstorms aided by a passing weak front. There are signs of a pattern shift later this week, with the high pressure in the central U.S. shifting westward. This would allow its clockwise circulation to pull down some cooler air from Canada toward our region by mid to late next week. The 6-to-10-day temperature forecast map from the Climate Prediction Center reflects this expectation, with its blue colors over most of the nation east of the Mississippi River (except Florida and parts of nearby states). As for rain expectations around the Independence Day Weekend: we're on the borderline between normal and above-normal.
But there is something lurking that could play with this forecast. The National Hurricane Center is watching a system in the northwest Caribbean that has at least some chance of developing into a tropical storm as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. Something to watch, but nothing to lay a heavy bet on, yet. The storm's name would be Ana if it becomes a tropical storm.
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We had a nice storm blow over our house this evening. I spent the afternoon dissecting and trying to diagnose an ignition problem in my lawn tractor...to no avail. Afterward, we too my in-laws dog down to Bissett Park for a walk, and just as we were leaving, the clouds thickened up. As we walked, we got pelted with a few sprinkles and headed back. Within about 2 minutes of returning home, the bottom fell out and we got a quick quarter inch of very heavy rain, gusty winds, and some nasty lighting strikes nearby. About 15 minutes later, we had blue skies again.
Comment by Other John — June 28, 2009 @ 10:40 pm
Kevin,
Maybe this question should be submitted to journal, I am not sure, but I would like to hear your thoughts on this. Last week a guy named Mark Vogan entered a blog on accuweather in the Meteo Maddness section, and basically he warned of significant cold and snow for a large portion of the lower 48 this coming winter. His basis was on several La nina paterns, and last years strong La nina, followed by this years developing El nino. He said that there was building cold, and the larger the cold gets, the colder it gets, and so on. He wrote that the expansion of cold is so large and so cold, that the only way to get rid of now would be for a major cold outbreak, one that many on the eastern seaboard hve not seen for 2o years to take place this winter and several winters to come. I am all for cold and snow, and I was just curious if you had read this, or heard anything like this from anyone else.
M
Comment by Matt — June 29, 2009 @ 11:48 am
Matt: I'm always a little dubious about anyone's 6-month or longer predictions for winter. I think a better indicator will be the predominant weather patterns when we get closer to winter. El Nino is developing, that is almost certain. Lots of folks think warm and wet for winter when they hear El Nino, but if certain other factors come into play, it can be cold and wet for the East, which would likely lead to snow and ice potential. The North Atlantic Oscillation is the big key. If we get in a pattern where there are frequent "negative" phases of the NAO ... blocking high over Greenland, forcing the jet stream southward over the U.S ... combined with a moderate El Nino, winter could turn very snowy. 2003 was something like this, which was our only above-normal snowfall winter in the last decade (and would have been one for the ages if the President's Day snowstorm had been about 200 miles farther south).
I would not be surprised at all if we had a cold/snowy winter in the near future or even several of them, and that's regardless of whatever may or may not be happening with global warming. For several winters, the jet stream has not flexed southward over us during mid-winter very often to optimize our chances of severe cold/snow. But it has done so in other parts of the country, and it has done so in our region at other times of the year. So I figure it's just a matter of time til that southward buckle happens for a considerable period of time during winter. This winter, next winter, several winters ... it's a crap shoot, just like picking out 2 weeks in spring months in advance to hit a stormy pattern in the central U.S. on our storm chase.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — June 29, 2009 @ 12:09 pm
Other John: Saw your storm on radar. Downsloping westerly winds kept there from being a lot of storms like that. Looks like another dry week ahead with maybe an afternoon or two when an isolated storm is possible. Highs in the 80s, lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s, pretty normal stuff.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — June 29, 2009 @ 12:14 pm
It definitely looks to be a great week. I'm going to catch up on my gardening work and get the house aired out well with the nice days and pleasantly cool nights. I'd been waiting for things to dry out enough, but the hot weather last week kept me from accomplishing much. Now, finally, the right combination of nice but not hot days, dry enough ground, and a spell of days without any major rain prospects.
Comment by Other John — June 29, 2009 @ 12:22 pm
btw ... the system that was being watched for possible development in the Caribbean is no longer considered to be of interest by the National Hurricane Center ...
Comment by Kevin Myatt — June 29, 2009 @ 5:51 pm