2009.07.30
Threat of severe storms for Virginia on Friday
A strong disturbance spinning through the southern states triggered an unusual out-of-season outbreak of tornadoes and damaging winds near Memphis today (tornadoes are more common in January in that region than in late July). That disturbance will be swinging northeastward overnight and into Friday, with a cold front also dragging through during the day. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop Friday morning, and there may be enough wind support this time for some supercells and possibly isolated tornadoes in parts of Virginia ... primarily east of the Blue Ridge, where instability will be stronger and daytime heating will have a better chance to take hold. It's just close enough that it bears some watching in our neck of the woods for a few severe storms, particularly in the late morning to mid afternoon period. A warm, sticky pattern with occasional bouts of storminess in our area is projected to continue through next week.
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The slight risk area for severe weather is shifted a little west this morning to include the Roanoke and New River valleys.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Comment by Kevin Myatt — July 31, 2009 @ 10:09 am
Light rain in Blacksburg now, and radar doesn't show anything potent yet, though later today that could easily change. It's awful soupy out there.
Comment by Other John — July 31, 2009 @ 10:27 am
I think there's a good chance the rain and clouds will hold the heating and instability in check today along/west of I-81 ... east of the Blue Ridge, central Virginia, eastern Virginia, much better chance of potent storms.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — July 31, 2009 @ 11:36 am
The gap between the two squall lines is really causing the western line to explode with heavy rain.
Comment by Nate — July 31, 2009 @ 12:30 pm
More rain moving in, but yep, it looks like the storms will be east of here. I haven't even heard any thunder out of this round.
Comment by Other John — July 31, 2009 @ 12:56 pm
Just had an outflow boundary/gust front (25ish winds, nothing huge) blow through here just ahead of the broken line of showers ... that probably effectively removes the threat of severe weather here (Roanoke Valley, points west) ... that boundary might be able to bounce against some warmth and humidity farther east and fire bigger storms.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — July 31, 2009 @ 1:58 pm
Severe threat now very far east per Storm Prediction Center.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Comment by Kevin Myatt — July 31, 2009 @ 4:30 pm