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Virginia Tech student Anthony Phillips was in my van for storm chase trips to the Plains both in 2005 and 2009. He and his fiancee, Sarah Prescott, are leading a project to better improve flash flood warning capability in the New River Valley. Click here to read Amy Matzke-Fawcett's article about the project that appeared today in The Roanoke Times' New River Valley Current.

Here's something I'm summarizing in Wednesday's short Weather Journal column, but is better told in its full format as written by Scott Harper of The Virginian-Pilot in Norfolk: Tides ranging half a foot to 2 feet above normal expectations have been observed along the East Coast. Some scientists think it could be a new decade-long phase taking hold in the Atlantic.

There are two main ways the temperature is held down in mid to late July. One is for an abnormally strong blast of cool air from Canada to dive southeastward. We've had several of those this month. The other is for clouds and rain to hold the temperatures down. That's what happened Monday, when Roanoke's high was only 72 after a low of 60.  The day's average temperature of 66 was 11 degrees below the normal for July 20, and chopped another 0.3 degrees off July's average temperature, dropping it to 72.6 as it vies among the coolest Julys in the past 97 years of weather records.

Today is likely to be another cooler than normal day as moist winds from the east and southeast against the mountains. The chances of heavy rain like we experienced early Moday will be reduced, though not eliminated, but showers, low clouds, and fog will be challenging for the sun to burn through. If it does, 80 is possible, but if rain is more widespread than expected earlier in the day, it might be another day with a mid 70s high, and the month's average temperature might be shaved a little further.

Looking down the road, it is likely that temperatures will work closer to the 88/66 norms by week's end. but on out to 10 days, below-normal temperatures are expected to centered in the Great Lakes with no better than normal temperatures expected in our region.

Instead of a gradual transition from the weekend's mild, dry air mass to more of a showery situation, it happened quite suddenly with heavy thunderstorms moving northward along the Blue Ridge this morning. A flash flood warning is in effect until 1:30 p.m.  for the Roanoke Valley and points southward along the Blue Ridge (western and central Franklin County, eastern Floyd County southwest Botetourt County in addition to Roanoke, Roanoke County and Salem). Reports of water over roads were received earlier by the National Weather Service in Blacksburg from Mudlick Road in Southwest Roanoke and from Virginia Route 116 near the Franklin-Roanoke County line southeast of the city. There was also a report of up to quarter-sized hail at Hollins earlier this morning. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches have been reported in Roanoke and central and eastern Roanoke County.

A flash flood watch has recently been issued for most of Southwest Virginia. There will be a threat of continued showers and storms today as moisture continues to converge along the Blue Ridge, thanks to a slow-moving upper-level disturbance to the west and east winds being drawn off the Atlantic up the slope of the Piedmont and Appalachians.

Latest National Weather Service radar

Rainfall totals at remote sensors in the Roanoke area

Rainfall totals at remote sensors throughout western Virginia

After another mild, dry, day more like late September that late July on Sunday, moisture will start building through the week as high pressure to the northeast starts sweeping in east and southeasterly winds. While a lot of that moisture will be concentraed along a stalled front off the coast, some of it will work inland up the slopes of the Appalachians for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the work week. Saturday night's 5-day rainfall potential map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center projects rainfall amounts near an inch over much of our region. So while it will be getting more humid, clouds and rain on many days will still keep daytime highs down as July likely continues a path toward possibly being one of the coolest in the last century in Southwest Virginia.

The advance of a reinforcing shot of unseasonably cool, dry air into the hot, humid air that moved in on Thursday triggered a round of thunderstorms this morning, some of which were severe. It appears there has been widespread wind damage in the southern half of Campbell County near Brookneal, and the storms continue to march eastward where they may gain strength with daytime heating. Closer to home, here are reports of severe weather (mainly wind damage, with 1 big hail report) turned into the National Weather Service in Blacksburg this morning.

* Burnt Chimney, Franklin County: 71 mph wind gust, roof of trailer ripped off, numerous trees uprooted.
* 2 miles north of Pittsville, Bedford County: Two trees blown down
* 6 miles south of Moneta, Franklin County: Trees blown down at Brooks Mill Road and Scruggs Road
* 2 miles south of Boones Mill, Franklin County: Large tree blown down at Leaning Oak Road and Green Level Road
* 7 miles south of Moneta, Franklin County: Trees blown down at Route 122 between Harmony School Road and Hardy Road.
* Burnt Chimney, Franklin County: Several large trees down.
* 2 miles south of Callaway, Franklin County: Large trees blown down on Old Forge Road.
* 3 miles south-southeast of Boones Mill, Franklin County: Hail 1 inch in diameter.
* 3 miles east-northeast of Callaway, Franklin County: Limb 4 inches in diameter ripped off walnut tree.
* 4 miles north-northwest of Fries, Carroll County: Large trees blown down, Route 94 and Ivanhoe Road.

UPDATE SATURDAY 7PM: It should be added to this report that an EF-1 tornado was confirmed just north of Pittsville in Pittsylvania County, with damage mainly to trees; one tree was blown onto a home.

"This is the first day of summer," somebody told me in the Roanoke Times office a little while ago. With a high of 91 ... only the fifth day at or above 90 this entire year to date ... and a dew point in the 60s (some 70s dew points in the New River Valley), it did indeed feel like a real July day.

Don't get used to it. A new cold front moving through will cut the legs out from under July heat once again, with temperatures likely at least 5 degrees cooler on Friday. Saturday will be about as pleasant as you can expect for the historical peak of summer heat, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Every day for about the next week (at least) is likely to be below normal for afternoon highs (normal this time of year is 88 at Roanoke, 83 at Blacksburg).

Even with today's heat, July is averaging only 73.3 degrees in Roanoke through the first 16 days. If the month ended today, it would be tied for sixth coolest (with 2000) among all Julys dating back to 1912. The record coolest July averaged 71.7 degrees in 1947. The expected upcoming weather pattern, featuring a deeply dipping jet stream over the East, and a few rainy days along the way holding highs in the lower half of the 70s could put that record in play.

Morning showers and storms, plus debris clouds from activity to our west, may again cut off any effort for temperatures to climb to 90 today. That may be made up for, though, by humidity in the air as temperatures push into the 80s with any sunshine that breaks through. Showers and storms will be possible throughout the day with heat and humidity and an approaching cold front, but a larger chance exists on Friday when the Storm Prediction Center has put most of Virginia (mainly from Roanoke eastward) in a slight risk of severe weather, even mentioning the potential for rotating storms and a few tornadoes as winds may shift with height as a low pressure system develops along the front.

That will lead into several days of below-normal temperatures. Don't be surprised if a day or two this weekend fails to hit 80 at what is, historically,  the peak of the year's heating cycle.

Clouds and showers stymied the climb of temperatures today. it did make it to 85 in Roanoke, still 3 degrees below normal; other locations stayed much cooler.  A warm front pushing through overnight into early Thursday may set us up for a run at 90 on Thursday ... not particularly impressive in a typical summer, but a rare event this summer. After that, there are signals that a prolonged cooler-than-normal period will set in at what is typically the peak of summer, with the potential for an upper-level low to get hung up just to our west for several days. There is still August, but it appears unlikely that July will produce any kind of significant heat wave for Southwest Virginia.

We might actually see 90 degrees Wednesday and Thursday in Roanoke. But then comes a new cold front, a chance of thunderstorms, and a return to cooler than normal temperatures (highs around 80, lows in the 50s and low 60s). And judging by the 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, these kind of temperatures might continue for a while.

So as July begins to move toward the end, we wonder: Will this continue to be the year without much of a summer.