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A hot, dry summer out West -- very different than ours -- has helped a massive wildfire grown near Los Angeles, where it threatens homes. Meanwhile, to the south, Category 4-nearly-5 Hurricane Jimena is threatening Baja California (a part of Mexico) with a projected path toward the southwestern U.S. as it weakens. Can Jimena deliver some needed rain to southern California? Or will it fan more fire-spreading wind from east and northeast as it passes by through Arizona?

Yes, cooler, more-fall like air is settling in to our region. With clouds and some showers, Monday might not make it to 70 in a lot of areas, and lows at night will be in the 50s to possibly upper 40s in some valleys both Monday and Tuesday night. But, just like last week's cold front, this front is getting to a point not far east of us and hanging up(farther, this time, off the coast, as this forecast weather map for Wednesday shows, courtesy of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center), blocked by high pressure over the North Atlantic. So rather than a long cool, dry push, we will be more likely to see warmth and moisture gradually returning by week's end, and there may be ripples of low pressure along the stalled front from time to time that could spread some showers into oure area. It will be more fall-like this week, especially early in the week, but definitely more like early fall, not an early preview of frosty, leaf-changing time.

Meanwhile, it looks quite likely that Tropical Storm Erika will from soon form in the Atlantic east of the Caribbean. Click on the National Hurricane Center for the latest on tropical weather.

Danny has been entirely removed from the National Hurricane Center's map now. But ... of importance primarily to me ... Tropical Storm Kevin has formed in the open Pacific. This story could even become better if this disturbance in the open Atlantic becomes Tropical Storm Erika, which is my wife's name (though  spelled with a "c" instead of a "k").

The National Hurricane Center reports this morning that what was Tropical Storm Danny is becoming absorbed into a low along a front and that a reconnaisance plane could not locate a surface circulation center. It's all rapidly moving north-northeastward as an extratropical system. Tropical storm watches have been discontinued. It still could be pretty breezy along the coast from North Carolina to Maine, but it will be more of the nor'easter-like system that region commonly gets in the cooler months.

Good-bye Danny, we hardly knew ye.

Meanwhile, expect today and Sunday to be the last of the summer-ish, warm, sticky stuff for a while before cooler air settles in for the coming week. It could be a damp kind of cool on Monday, with a new low developing that will spread moisture into surface air that, with rain and clouds, might not even make it to 70.

The center of Tropical Storm Danny is farther west than expected and, this morning, actually has been moving due west at times. That would sound quite threatening except that Danny is flailing for its very life, with its weakened circulation center (40 mph winds, just barely a tropical storm) having moved out front under its convection. The National Hurricane Center notes two possibilities in its 11 a.m. discussion: Either Danny's circulation center continues to remain west of its convection, or its center reforms farther east amid the convection. Either way, the North Carolina coast would benefit: A circulation center without convection, or a circulation center forming farther away from the coast.

In any event, Danny certainly appears like a storm totally incapable of flinging large bands of rainfall our direction. But we don't need it: We're getting rain from a more common source, an upper-level low-pressure system moving through. (Click here for latest National Weather Service radar). It's a forerunner to a large cold front that will bring a rather dramatic shift in our weather early next week, as I write about in today's Weather Journal.

As we watch whether the current Tropical Storm Danny will become a hurricane, and whether it will move close enough to affect the coast from the Carolinas to Maine, you may be scratching your head thinking that you have heard about a Hurricane Danny in the past.

Indeed, there have been two Hurricane Dannys that made landfall in the United States, each of which were Category 1 storms coming ashore in the north-central Gulf of Mexico before the remnants crossed the Southeast. The August 1985 Hurricane Danny came ashore in rural southwest Louisiana with 90 mph winds, but its main effects were inland flooding due to heavy rain and a prolific outbreak of tornadoes in the Southeast, including 34 in Alabama alone. Three people died from Danny's effects. More detailed National Hurricane Center information related to Danny 1985 is linked here. (Gotta love those 1980s-era typewritten reports!)

The July 1997 Hurricane Danny, with a very small area of hurricane-force winds around its eye, crossed the Mississippi River delta of Louisiana before making a second somewhat stronger landfall near Dauphin Island/Fort Morgan, Ala.  The slow-moving storm dumped more than 30 inches of rain in parts of south Alabama, and then spread heavy rain and a smattering of tornadoes northeastward through the Carolinas into the Tidewater area of Virginia. A total of 4 people were killed. Danny 1997 did a very unusual thing, re-intensifying into a tropical storm over southeast Virginia before it re-emerged into the Atlantic. A more detailed National Hurricane Center synopsis of Danny 1997 is linked here.

There were also Dannys in 1991 and 2003 that remained over open water. You see a pattern here: Every 6 years, there is a new Danny. That's because the National Hurricane Center's storm name lists are rotated every 6 years. Names are removed only if the World Meteorological Organization determines that a storm had such a major impact that no other storm should carry that name, for at least 10 years (though effectively, the retirement has been permanent). It's a Hall of Fame of sorts, or rather, a Hall of Infamy. Here is a listing of retired storm names.

Danny, neither in 1985 nor in 1997, has been deemed worthy of name retirement. We'll see if it does something in the next days to get taken off the list. Othewise, it will be re-appear for the fourth named storm of the 2015 Atlantic tropical season.

An upper-level low pressure system along the Gulf Coast is lifting northeastward, and this is likely to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms in Southwest Virginia Friday and Saturday as moisture builds under it. This upper-level low will also be what nudges Tropical Storm Danny northward away from the Eastern Seaboard. Our region's effects from Danny will likely be indirect at best, maybe a little more moisture from the southeast when the storm is still off the Carolinas, and as of now it looks like the coastal areas closest to us will escape a major impact from Danny. There is always some level of uncertainty so if you have travel plans to the coast, monitor the situation and be sure forecasts haven't changed before hitting the road. (The National Hurricane Center is linked here. Just click on the symbol for Danny on the map for the latest forecast.)

Meanwhile, today may be the hottest in several days, possibly even the rest of 2009 if the developing southern dip in the jet stream becomes a long-lasting pattern. A high of 90 is possible today in Roanoke. Expect temperatures to cool rather dramatically by early next week as a strong cold front plows through. This one will be vigorous enough not to get hung up just east of us, and will truly bring a taste of fall to Southwest Virginia.

Tropical Storm Danny has formed, as expected. The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Danny, now east of the Bahamas, intensifying to hurricane strength and scraping the Eastern Seaboard from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward. If this track is close to correct, we probably won't have a huge impact from the storm, maybe some showers before it gets north of our latitude as it sweeps some moisture against the mountains. The bigger weather story for us is likely to be a deep plunge of cool air early next week.

The next potential tropical system  just northeast of the Caribbean bears watching as its west-northwest track could bring it close to the East Coast in a few days. As of very early this morning, the National Hurricane Center gives it a moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Should it do so and then gain at least 40 mph winds, it would become Tropical Storm Danny. (Unless the system near Central America, given a slight risk, were to strengthen first. The next name after Danny on the Atlantic list is Erika.)

Speaking of tropical weather, the discussion has been continuing about hurricane mitigation on my blog entry following the front page Roanoke Times story about a local entrepreneur with a proposal to force ocean upwelling to reduce hurricane strength. Click here for the blog entry, to link to the article and to add your comments.

In the meantime, relatively hot weather is going to make a faster return than previously thought with widespread highs in the 80s today and possibly some 90s on Wednesday and Thursday before a new cold front kicks off more widespread showers and storms. We'll see if the tropical system plays a role in our weather by the weekend or into next week.

This week is not going to be quite as cool and dry as it appeared it might be earlier, but still not a scorcher. The influence of Hurricane Bill and high pressure to the east stalled the cold front just east of us, with the front washing out entirely Monday. The front didn't get a good clean push through allowing as much cool, dry air to come in from Canada. Moisture is still hanging in, too, and will build a little more with some east winds off the ocean on Monday. So we have maintained a little more of the warm, sticky weather with afternoon showers and storms. Monday and Monday night may be the closest to what was envisioned earlier, with highs mostly in the 70s and lows in the 50s most places around. But we will see 80s for highs and 60s for lows most of the week, with scattered afternoon showers and storms.

The overall air pattern remains favorable for new intrusions of Canadian air, and a new cold front will likely approach later in the week, triggering more widespread showers and storms. Within the next couple of weeks, I still expect one of these cold fronts to push through with at least a couple days of fall-like weather. It usually takes quite a few pushes to get cooler, drier in during late August.