2009.08.30
This cold front will be another sticky wicket
Yes, cooler, more-fall like air is settling in to our region. With clouds and some showers, Monday might not make it to 70 in a lot of areas, and lows at night will be in the 50s to possibly upper 40s in some valleys both Monday and Tuesday night. But, just like last week's cold front, this front is getting to a point not far east of us and hanging up(farther, this time, off the coast, as this forecast weather map for Wednesday shows, courtesy of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center), blocked by high pressure over the North Atlantic. So rather than a long cool, dry push, we will be more likely to see warmth and moisture gradually returning by week's end, and there may be ripples of low pressure along the stalled front from time to time that could spread some showers into oure area. It will be more fall-like this week, especially early in the week, but definitely more like early fall, not an early preview of frosty, leaf-changing time.
Meanwhile, it looks quite likely that Tropical Storm Erika will from soon form in the Atlantic east of the Caribbean. Click on the National Hurricane Center for the latest on tropical weather.
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Kevin and Erica/Erika ...... how very cute!! Adorable even. But the tropical storms are the opposite of you two, I bet. They are volatile and stormy ..... Kevin, I really feel that the chances of this winter being a big one are much improved by El Nino. Definitely I opine that it will continue to be well above normal in terms of precip., and with the cool summer (YAY!!!!)and possible early autumn (unlike 1997, the autumn before the last strong El Nino), we could be looking at cooler than normal temps going into the winter. I know, I know, the game plan for El Nino is increased precip but also chances of warmer than average temps, but I am worried and your snow lovers should be optimistic about the winter of 2010.
Comment by Doug Griggs — August 31, 2009 @ 9:09 am
I don't see much rain for this week, and I'd like some please. In Wytheville, we've only gotten about 0.30 in the last 10 days after having a wet early August.
Comment by Rick — August 31, 2009 @ 9:28 am
I'm not really ready to jump on a "big" winter just yet, Doug, but just being a wet winter alone (if indeed it is, per a typical El Nino) would increase the odds that at least some of that "wet" would be snow and ice.
If we keep having cold fronts move through and stall off the coast, providing a tether line for waves of low pressure to develop in the Gulf and move up the coast later in the season, then yes it could be a big winter weather season. A long way to go and much weather to be played out before then.
Rick: No, not a lot of rain expected, but we will have to keep an eye on any ripples of low pressure that can develop and move up the stalled front. These can surprise sometimes.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — August 31, 2009 @ 9:55 am
Oh ... and "Kevin" in the Pacific isn't looking very volatile this morning ... it got downgraded to a tropical depression ... I'm not sure it's gonna last long enough to share the atmosphere with Erika.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — August 31, 2009 @ 11:11 am