2009.09.02
Another autumnal early September night
After a low of 51 in Roanoke and 48 in Blacksburg this morning -- indeed, the coolest since the first day of June -- very similar lows are expected tonight with clear skies, calm winds and low dew points. Thursday and Thursday night might be yet another repeat, with highs in the 70s and lows once again in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Looking farther out, a very long period of placid, normal to slightly cooler than normal weather appears in the offing, with highs on many days in the mid 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Hurricane Erika could change that ... but it doesn't look like it will have a much of chance, between shearing winds aloft and running over land masses in the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center forecasts Erika to drop off to a depression and then a remnant low approaching the Bahamas by Sunday.
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Ok, now we're getting some fall weather, with 47.1 at my house in Wytheville and a 45.5 at the nearby Kings Weather Station. But these temperatures are nothing unusual for early September. It's not even close to breaking the earliest freeze I have known here, and that was 31.0 on September 5, 1997.
Comment by Rick — September 3, 2009 @ 9:58 am
It's not necessarily "unusual" but it is below normal.
Roanoke's record low for Friday morning is 48, but I don't think we'll get there.
Meanwhile ... Erika has not only weakened to a tropical depression, but is heading straight for the "hurricane-killing" mountains of Hispaniola. The tropical season is certainly living up to its weak billing during an El Nino.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — September 3, 2009 @ 5:02 pm
This morning's lows were 53 in Roanoke and 48 in Blacksburg, by the way. That marks the first back-to-back sub-50 mornings in Blacksburg since May 21 was the last of five consecutive days with lows below 50 (including three in the 30s). The same stretch of five days was also Roanoke's last back-to-back sub-55 lows.
Normal high and low are 82 and 60 for Roanoke, 79 and 55 for Blacksburg. Roanoke's highs have been 77 and 79 the last couple of days, Blacksburg's have been 72 and 76. So, like I said, definitely below normal, but not bizarre chill.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — September 3, 2009 @ 7:40 pm
My wife Nancy and I are up here in Burlington, Vermont, only about 50 miles south of the Canadian border, and north of the 44th parallel, and we have been a couple of degrees warmer than Roanoke both yesterday and today. Highs of about 82 / 83 !!! No biggie, because dew points are in the 50s, and absolutely no clouds since we arrived here, with only very light winds in the early afternoon. The locals are telling us that this has been by far the best streak of weather all summer up here and throughout New England, which was unusually wet and cool for nearly all of the summer, especially June and July. If this area is also likely to get heavier than normal precip during an El Nino wnter, they may get buried in snow. Burlington gets a little lake effect snow, too, sitting on the east side of Lake Champlain.
Comment by Doug Griggs — September 3, 2009 @ 10:08 pm
I just read your excellent Wednesday Roanoke Times article about the lopsided effects of the jet stream on the two halves of the North American continent, Kevin. And I have noticed these effects for years, like you have. I will reply more on this after I return to beautiful SW Virginia, and can do some research. What I have noticed (and I think that you have explained the following yourself in previous winters) is that with a few rare exceptions, the lopsided effect -- once entrenched -- will remain generally unchanged for as little as two weeks or up to 6 or 7 weeks, but rarely longer than that. So if the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast have been unusually cold for 4 weeks or so, a change to warmer-than-normal temps is likely soon if not immediately. And vice-versa.
Comment by Doug Griggs — September 3, 2009 @ 10:30 pm