2009.09.03
El Nino's effects on our winter
In Friday's Weather Journal column, I take a look ahead at winter by taking a look back at how other El Nino winters have played out in Roanoke. The results might surprise you.
About this blog
Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States."
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Might want to factor in el Nino's three flavors - weak, moderate, and strong.
Comment by Sirius...The Star Dog — September 4, 2009 @ 12:02 pm
Agreed ... I allude to that just briefly near the end of my column ... when we get closer to winter and get a better idea how this El Nino looks like it's going to play out, it would be good to revisit that aspect. The Climate Prediction Center's forecasts have already backed off quite a bit on how strong this El Nino is expected to be.
General idea on a cursory glance: The strong El Nino years (72-73, 82-83, 91-92, 97-98) have a better chance of being warm and wet, as the El Nino-induced subtropical warmth overwhelms the pattern. 91-92 and 97-98 certainly fit this bill; 72-73 was warm and wet early and then pretty normal in January and Februrary; 82-83 had the one huge snowstorm in February but was pretty normal otherwise. Still some variance even at that, though.
There is some diagreement among sources on the strength of El Nino/La Nina in varoius years. Here's a Web site I typically go to for a quick reckoning of El Nino/La Nina years based on consensus view of 4 sources:
http://ggweather.com/enso/years.htm
Comment by Kevin Myatt — September 4, 2009 @ 12:33 pm