2009.09.09
Complex dance of storm systems may bring storms, cooler weather
An upper-level low slipping southeast from the Ohio Valley will likely trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms today, especially from the Roanoke Valley westward. The atmosphere is pretty thick with moisture, so locally heavy rain will be possible, as will gusty winds and some hail in the stronger storms, especially with a pool of cold air aloft that these storms may be able to bubble up into. The best chance of hail or high winds is over far Southwest Virginia no farther east than Wytheville, and not enough to rate a slight risk of severe weather (only a "See Text") by the Storm Prediction Center.
The coastal low is still there, though more offshore and weaker. Nonetheless, it is likely to affect our weather Thursday and Friday, as it meanders a bit back to the west, by pulling cooler air from the northeast into our area. Though the forecast for Thursday now is for highs in the 70s, it might not get out of the 60s if a thick bank of moisture, fog and clouds develops.
Speaking of the coastal low, David Sobotta, who goes back and forth between homes on a mountain overlooking the Roanoke Valley and the Crystal Coast of North Carolina (he has a local blog, View from the Mountain), measured 8.3 inches of rain on Labor Day from the coastal low. Here is a blog post he made about that.
The good news is that the National Hurricane Center no longer considers this low even a slight tropical development risk ... and distant Hurricane Fred is not going to get close to any significant land mass before sputtering out in the high-shear upper winds that are killing Atlantic tropical systems left and right this season.
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We got a pretty decent storm last night, though I slept through most of it. Several days of travel and long drives took their toll...I could have slept through a hurricane I was so exhausted.
Comment by Other John — September 9, 2009 @ 11:24 am
Radar looks pretty mean right now. Hefty storms that are training substantially as they wrap around the low center, looks like a lot of rain will fall this afternoon in places that get it. My drive home might be nasty...I knew I should have gotten my new tires already.
Comment by Other John — September 9, 2009 @ 3:50 pm
Yes, the rotation with the low is obvious on radar loop:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=FCX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Comment by Kevin Myatt — September 9, 2009 @ 3:56 pm
Downpour in south and east parts of Roanoke, stretching into downtown. The Walnut Street bridge has collected over an inch in an hour, with Mill Mountain getting about 2/3 of that amount in the same time.
http://www.afws.net/data/va/Roanoke.HTM
Flash flood warning now in effect for city of Roanoke.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — September 9, 2009 @ 7:33 pm
It was weird yesterday for us. The system looked to sling potent storms into the Radford area around 5 PM, but they fizzled out just west of there almost completely. A new line fired west of Blacksburg around 4, but also fizzled quickly and didn't drop much rain where I was at. When I drove home, I passed through the area where the new storm hit, but my house was dry. All we got later in the evening was a few sprinkles. I guess the storms died and the outflow boundary spawned the new line...because the temps dropped a good 20 degrees.
Comment by Other John — September 10, 2009 @ 8:09 am