2009.10.16
Winter forecasts: General consensus toward cold, moist
As I write about in today's Weather Journal column, there was no big shock when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (the overseeing agency for the National Weather Service) came out with its winter forecast, which is basically a textbook moderate El Nino pattern. Cooler than normal temperatures with near average precipitation would be the general call for our region, based on the forecast maps.
I alluded to Accuweather.com's forecasts, which are widely followed, and are very robust on snow potential for the East this winter (as they seem to be quite frequently). I've added a few links to those forecasts and one other from some private forecasters ... all thanks to my readers who have watched out for these forecasts while I've been otherwise occupied this fall.
It does remind me a bit of the buildup to a football season ... it's all hype until the pigskin flies and the pads pop. And when it comes to snow, there have been several losing seasons recently for the region's winter fans.
Accuweather.com compares its forecast to that released by NOAA on Thursday ... overall pretty similar.
Accuweather.com's Joe Bastardi going very big on winter snow forecasts for our region.
Accuweather.com's Henry Margusity calls for 46 inches of snow for Roanoke in big Eastern winter
Forecasters Hunter Outten and Mike Petro with a similar snowy outlook (Adobe Acrobat required)
Meanwhile, winter fans, enjoy any snowflakes you see tonight or Saturday, especially in higher elevations and locations west of I-81. I will get to my thoughts ... and introduce the Winter 2009-10 snowfall prediction contest ... in two weeks.
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There's that sports analogy again ;). Accuweather (in my opinion) is very entertaining and it fun to get your hopes up for snow,snow and more snow..but like I've said before..I've yet to see all of the predicted snow.
I'll still read it though!
Comment by Angela — October 16, 2009 @ 10:58 am
I need your help. I am getting married next weekend...outside...can you tell the weather forecasters to please give me sun or at least no rain next weekend! It's not looking good right now!
Comment by Bill — October 16, 2009 @ 2:35 pm
Next weekend won't really come into much clarity until about Tuesday or so. I got married on a rainy October weekend in 2005 ... but it broke off 2 hours before our ceremony.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — October 16, 2009 @ 3:31 pm
I just clicked on the cpc.ncep.noaa.gov etc website, and it shows our area being normal for both temps and precip for the 3-month outlook, although the cooler than normal region is immediately to our south. The graph differs from what your article today showed, I think. How can that be? It also showed November being neither cool/warm, nor wet/dry. Frankly, I agree with you and the rest of the long-range forecasters, that this winter will be at least colder than normal. And I got a big laugh from your reaction that you posted on the 14th about Bastardi and winter snowfall predictions for the East. If someone keeps predicting something that will ccme true once in a while, eventualy he/she will be right. That does NOT make someone a good predictor. He was way, way off last winter. Or is it more like 2 or 3 winters in a row?
Comment by Doug Griggs — October 16, 2009 @ 10:14 pm