2009.11.01
Let's try again on that dry, mild week
Well, this time last week I was suggesting that the week ahead would have pleasant temperatures and little or no rain. Instead, we had a couple of rounds of soaking rain. Let's try again this week: Once more it looks like a week of fairly normal temperatures (cool 30s and 40s in the morning, up in the 60s in the afternoon) with little or no rain, possibly through next weekend. There is more reason to be confident this week because there isn't a front hanging around along the coast and into the Gulf of Mexico that could serve as a focus for a low to develop, and high pressure looks to have firmer grasp on much of the nation. After last week's active weather week that included flooding rain, snow and severe weather across much of the country, this looks like a quiet week ... but we'll see if it changes.
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Hi Kevin,
Just sent in my predictions for our upcoming snowy (I hope) winter. I noticed you mentioned the elevation difference between Roanoke and Blacksburg as more than 1000 feet. Virginia Tech's airport is listed at 2,133 feet while Roanoke Regional Airport is listed at 1149, a difference of 984. Here on Peakwood I am just under 1500 feet or 633 feet lower than the VT airport.
Comment by Steve Murray — November 2, 2009 @ 2:06 pm
Steve: You are right. I should have said "about 1,000 feet." In my head I was thinking about downtown Roanoke down near the river, not the airport, which would be more than 1,000 feet difference. As we've seen in the past, snow totals can vary substantially just through the varying elevations of the Roanoke Valley.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — November 2, 2009 @ 4:14 pm
I am still working on my snowfall predictions but I think we are headed for a winter like 1993-1994. Not necessarily huge snows, but a VERY cold winter and a VERY wet winter. We had 3 or 4 crippling ice-storms of which we have not seen the likes of since then. I will be fit to be tied if winter 2009-2010 turns out to be mild and dry....it's been since 1996...something's FINALLY got to give. Bring on the SNOW!!!!!
Comment by Scott Saunders — November 2, 2009 @ 4:30 pm
Yes, the official Roanoke elevation on the Rand McNally travel maps, is 948'......probably a downtown measurement. The Roanoke Regional Airport at 1,149' is one of the higher places in the city limits of Roanoke.....excluding Mill Mt.
Comment by Rick — November 2, 2009 @ 5:20 pm
You'll have to let us know if the youngsters once again are much more conservative on the snowfall forecast than the grown ups. I don't live in the Roanoke area now (grew up there), but my guess would be 8 inches for Roanoke, first inch on Jan 7, and 14 inches for Blacksburg, first inch on Dec 16. And, I'd regard that as a bullish forecast. I have to think that sometime just by random chance that favorable conditions will lock in for 2-3 weeks to bury the area, but "the trend is your friend" in forecasting generally and the last 13 years can't be ignored. I think a big snow, though, is more likely than a very cold winter; temperatures will likely be at least 1 degree F above average. There may not be a cold snap more than a couple of days long.
Comment by KevinL — November 3, 2009 @ 1:28 pm
From what I see so far, the young folks are very much lower on average than older folks. They don't remember a very big winter: 2002-03 and to a lesser extent 03-04 are the only winters in recent years that at least resembled the big ones of the past, at least in the fact that there were multiple 4-plus snow events each of those winters. The question about the 13-year trend: Is it the start of a very long-term trend, or is it due to flip like the similar trend from 1947 to 1960. Time will tell.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — November 3, 2009 @ 5:04 pm
It's because I moved here 13 years ago, from Nebraska.......and we haven't had a decent winter yet!!
Comment by Rick — November 3, 2009 @ 6:06 pm
The mention by Scott of the ice storms gives me chills. My power was off 4 days in one and 5 days in another. Ugh..... That reminds me I never did buy that generator I swore I would buy!
Comment by Johnny — November 3, 2009 @ 6:16 pm
I am just half-heartedly predicting some major ice-storms, I am far from a trained meteorologist...lol...but just having fun. I certainly hope I am wrong and that we receive the 46" of snow Henry Margusity is predicting. Shoot, I'll be tickled pink if we get the 24" that Kevin is predicting. That is just a hair above normal, but would seem like a "hard winter" compared to the last 13-14 years. I do lots of weather research, read many journals from almanacs and other meteorologists and I honestly do think we are heading in a colder 1960s style cycle, especially dealing with solar activity and climatological changes. I think we will get at least 15" this winter, but that is not my official tally for the contest! I am in my 30s and would like to see one more "good ol' fashioned winter ala 1977-78,1978-79,1979-80,1982-83,1986-87,1993,1993-94(ICE STORMS and BRUTAL COLD) and 1995-96 before I get too old...lol!!!
Comment by Scott Saunders — November 4, 2009 @ 12:43 pm