2009.11.04
Yes, there's still an Atlantic tropical season going on
Tropical Storm Ida has formed in the Carribean near the Central American coast. It will likely soon move over Nicaragua and Guatemala, and though the National Hurricane Center is giving it some chance of regaining tropical storm strength later this week as it nears the Gulf of Mexico, there's a good chance it will rain itself out over the higher terrain of those countries. Late season tropical systems flooding the higher terrain of Central America can be very deadly, the extreme example being the 11,000-plus killed in 1998's Hurricane Mitch.
While Ida is unlikely to affect the U.S. as an organized tropical system, there's some chance its subtropical moisture could get pulled into the U.S. as new Pacific cold fronts and low-pressure systems move across in the next 7-10 days or so.
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They now show it emerging in the Gulf by early next week and moving northward toward the AL/MS coastal areas. If it does so, it could make it to a hurricane if it doesn't get clobbered over the terrain. And if that happens, we might wind up with a shot of a slug of tropical air and moisture the weekend after next or so. That would help to wipe out the slight dryness we've had since Sept. 1
Comment by Other John — November 5, 2009 @ 4:19 pm
I would wonder if the upper-air pattern over the U.S. would shear it too much for it to be a hurricane. Certainly doubtful it would be more than a Category 1.
Getting moisture from it is a much higher chance. Quite likely, I'd think, over the Gulf states, perhaps funneling into our region.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — November 5, 2009 @ 10:06 pm
Current National Hurricane Center forecasts expect shear and cool water in the northern Gulf of Mexico to limit any strong development potential of Ida as it moves north ... in fact, the NHC projects Ida will be extratropical by midweek as it's swept into a upper-level trough ... still could contribute to some heavy rains for the Southeast.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — November 6, 2009 @ 11:32 am
I saw that during my lunch break, they also have it projected to turn more toward Florida than going due north, so it might get swept mostly away from our area. I'll be doing a long road trip back to the area Tuesday night, so given its forward speed and the new projections, it looks like that will be relatively rain-free, unlike your trip a short while back. I hate driving in rain like that.
Comment by Other John — November 6, 2009 @ 1:38 pm