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If you haven't gotten in your Halloween activities yet, you're probably going to get soaked if it involves being outdoors the rest of this evening. A large area of rain moving out of West Virginia will soon overtake the area. While we saw some showers earlier, this will be a much more widespread and heavier rain ... though not a torrential one. Most places in our region are expected to get 1/2 to 1 inch. Once this rain pushes out, the week ahead looks like a treat, with dry weather, cool mornings and warm days. A prolonged period of mild to warm and dry weather may be in the offing the next 10 days or so ... but last week's projected dryness was spoiled by a storm that fired in the Gulf. We'll just have to see if there are any spoiler this week.

Winter is getting an early start in the Rockies and High Plains, where "the biggest snowmaker to hit Colorado's Front Range in October since 1997" is under way. Click here to read the Associated Press article. This same powerhouse low could become a severe weather producer the next couple of days  and also spread more heavy rain through the central U.S. It will pull a Pacific cool front through our region by the weekend, triggering a few showers around Halloween.

There appear to be no ... wet extremes anywhere on the horizon.

What dummy put these words on his blog Saturday ... oh yeah, it was me, and I was taunted by it today with 13 hours of rain on a 13 hour, 20-minute drive from Arkansas to Virginia Tuesday.

It just goes to show you that we are in the time of year when you can't take your eyes off the pattern even for a day or two. What looked like a fairly weak disturbance a few days ago ended up spinning up a strong low that has spread Gulf of Mexico moisture northward, creating a rainy Tuesday over much of the East.

If this is a sign of the El Nino-driven winter ahead ... and this kind of wet storm is very El Nino-like ... we'll have lots of interesting things to watch in the weeks and months ahead -- though many of them may just be wet like this.

Kevin is driving through soggy Tennessee on his way back to Virginia today. He will be back Wednesday to talk about how this week's weather has defied expectations.

-- Erica Myatt

A cold front pushing into our region and low pressure to our northwest is likely to trigger rainfall, especially tonight (sorry, high school football fans). This morning's rainfall projection map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center forecasts the potential for about an inch of rain in much Western Virginia through the next 48 hours. It might be just warm enough (in the 60s) that this front could even trigger a few thunderstorms with gusty winds. The first half of Saturday look soggy too, but rain should start to diminish into the afternoon. This front is more of a "cool" front than a cold one, as temperatures will cool down but not return to last week's frosty/mountain snow flurry levels, at least for the next few days.

Highs of 76 in Blacksburg and 78 in Roanoke today were well above the normal highs for this date of 63 and 67, respectively, but fell well short of the record highs of 81 for Blacksburg (1993) and 85 for Roanoke (1941). The morning started just a degree above freezing in Blacksburg at 33, 3 degrees below normal, and 42 at Roanoke, only a degree below normal.

We'll see a similar day on Thursday, though the cool start will be about 5 to 8 degrees warmer. 

Rain and cooler weather is still on the way over the weekend. A little further down the road, the 6-to-10 day and 8-to-14 day temperature maps from the Climate Prediction Center depict the progessive pattern well, as cooler than normal temperatures expand from the central U.S. early next week toward the east later in the week.

The timing isn't working out for anyone who wants a sunny Saturday. The sunny, warm days will be today and Thursday ... highs in the 70s, generally, after cool mornings in the 40s. Rain returns Friday with the next cold front -- Friday night football games look to be soggy right now -- lingering into Saturday.  Sunday, though, looks like it may be nice with sunshine, highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s, perhaps a good leaf-peeping day.

This is a result of the progressive jet stream pattern we are in, with fronts pushed across the nation about every 5 days, a few days warmup followed by a cooldown. For now, it appears most of the fronts are of Pacific origin, so no extreme chill-outs are likely. Very typical October weather.

Roanoke's official low fell to at least 32 briefly this morning, the first freezing temperature of the 2009-10 cool season. Blacksburg dropped to 28 and was below freezing for a few hours, indicating a growing season-ending freeze probably occurred in many areas away from the Roanoke metro area, especially north and west of Roanoke. While the first hard freeze of the year renders additional freeze warnings unnecessary, similar temperatures on Tuesday morning have led the National Weather Service in Blacksburg to issue a frost advisory for the second consecutive morning for locations from the Roanoke Valley south and east.

My storm chasing friend Dave Carroll from Blacksburg ventured up to Salt Pond Mountain today (the one Mountain Lake is on). He saw a little light snow blowing around and shot some photos of a wintry mountaintop with an autumn background. My favorite, small at the left and a larger version linked here, showns rime ice on tree branches above 4,100 feet at Bald Knob. Riming is caused by winds blowing water droplets in clouds against surfaces that are below freezing. He also shot a picture of a wee bit of snow accumulation on some of the many ferns found on the mountain. Just a hint of winter today at the area's highest elevations.

Some more snow showers are possible overnight at elevations generally above 3,000 feet (possibly creeping lower into the New River Valley after midnight) as another disturbance swings through. The bigger issue will be the potential for a growing season-ending freeze tonight and again Sunday night over most of Southwest Virginia west and north of Roanoke. Freeze warnings and watches have been issued.

A late week snow set records for earliest on record in some states to our northeast.

This taste of winter won't last long, as gradually warming temperatures are expected through the coming week.

It appears that the airport at Hot Springs ... actually located on top of the mountain above the town and The Homestead ... experienced some snow overnight and this morning as temperatures dipped to just above freezing.

And it appears almost certain that Roanoke will set an Oct. 15 record for coldest high temperature today ... and it likely won't even be close. We're sitting at 44 this morning, the record is 53 set in 1978 and 2002, and rain is moving in as cold air damming maintains its hold on our region.

A cold front and some more snowflakes, especially in the higher elevations, are still on the way for Friday and Saturday. If a flake or two blows into the Roanoke Valley, Saturday morning would be the best bet.