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Weather Journal will be taking an extended break due to a death in the family. I hope to be back in about a week or so.

I wrote in Friday's Weather Journal column about fall foliage, talking to Virginia Tech forestry expert John Seiler (thanks to blog commenter Nate for the suggestion!). What are you seeing with fall colors so far? And how do you expect the foliage to be in Southwest Virginia when it peaks?

The last day Blacksburg was below 50 or Roanoke below 55 for a low was June 1 (49 at Blacksburg, 53 at Roanoke). The second day of September could be even a little cooler than that if the clouds overhead now break up and a clear, calm night happens. Wednesday night/Thursday morning could be similarly cool, owing to a cool, dry Canadian air mass that has settled in. It will gradually warm and get a little more humid toward the weekend, but no extreme heat for this time of year appears to be on the horizon. Normals this time of year are highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s for Roanoke, and highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s for Blacksburg. Those kind of tempeatures are likely most of the next several days after the cool shot moderates.

A squall line has formed in West Virginia and is approaching the Virginia state line. We'll see how much juice this line, which has prompted several severe thunderstorm warnings, has to get over the mountains into the Roanoke and New River valleys soon, but at least some places in Western Virginia should see some gusty winds, heavy rain and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning with this line in the next hour or two. This is the kickoff of several days worth of scattered showers and storms, as frontal systems stall and disturbances move through a more humid air mass. Temperatures will hold near normal in the 80s for highs and 60s for lows this week.

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

I'm taking advantage of a  somewhat quieting weather pattern (yes, there will be a few thunderstorms most days, which is typical this time of year) to take a bit of a personal break from the weather blog. I'll be back on if something really big happens, but otherwise, enjoy the early summerlike weather pattern.

We were near the end of the life cycle of Friday's mighty storm cluster that caused widespread damage in Missouri, Kentucky, southern Illinois and parts of several surrounding states. Had this thing rolled through here at 4 p.m. instead of 11 p.m. it might have been a different scene. The swirling winds and cold air aloft with the passing upper-level low were perfect for strong to severe thunderstorms, some of which rotated and dropped tornadoes. But it was a little cooler and stable near the surface for the kind of high-end severe weather that could have happened at the peak of daytime heating.

We'll continue to watch the next couple of days as daytime heating, lingering moisture and some disturbances moving through could trigger additional storms.

In the ongoing tale of zigzagging temperatures, Friday will be a damp and chilly day with some rain showers and temperatures stubbornly climbing into the upper 30s and low 40s. Some freezing rain may be possible early in the day in a few spots, but it probably won't amount to too much. Then it's mild again for Saturday and Sunday (mid 50s to lower 60s) and only a little cooler through the middle of next week. It's after that when it may get at least seasonably cold again, and questions grow regarding a pattern change.

Winter storm watches and winter weather advisories are up for eastern West Virginia counties just west of the border with Virginia as Round 3 of mountain snow showers begins (the first round was a week ago today, the second late Thursday and early Friday). Up to 10 inches may fall in western Greenbrier County, West Virginia ... the Quinwood area. As usual, a few snow showers may bleed over into the New River Valley, possibly even a ground-whitening snow squall or two, while a few flurries or even briefly heavier snow showers could drift into the Roanoke Valley. Let me know if you get measurable snow at your location.

Snows produced by upslope winds over the mountains, streaking southeastward, have added to those produced by an upper-level disturbance that moved through overnight, especially in the region from the far Southwest Virginia coalfields eastward through the Wytheville area and the southern New River Valley, where many places have 2-4 inches of snow with as much as 6 at Burkes Garden. It looks like another 1-2 inches in most of the New River Valley, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the flurries pick up and some locally heavier snow showers even in the Roanoke Valley later today, as the radar trends seem to show more of the snow squall streaks headed this direction, though probably little in the way of accumulation. The sunshine may act to create a wee bit of instability in the very cold air aloft ... I noticed some bubbly looking white cumulus clouds as I went out to walk my dog in some light flurries this morning. Those could be indicative of some instability-enhanced heavier snow showers developing

Much of the area west of Roanoke is under a winter weather advisory. 

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

It may take a little longer to get the rain going tonight that first thought, and it may last longer into Saturday. We are awaiting a strong cold front pushing in from the west, and also whatever showers can develop as an upper-level disturbance lifts Gulf of Mexico moisture northward this evening. Some showers and storms have occurred east of us today, and as this 48-hour rainfall forecast map shows, we might be in a gap again with 1/2 to 3/4 inch amounts and larger amounts both east and west.

So the short answer for anyone with outdoor plans tonight, including high school football playoffs: Showers may develop at anytime, but the heaviest rain may hold off until late tonight or early Saturday.

Latest national and regional radar