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Today in my Weather Journal column I gave a few of my thoughts about the winter ahead.

(By the way, I intended to predict a first snow on Dec. 13 for Roanoke, not Dec. 3 as was published. However, since it published that way, I am stuck with that as my pick. As it's published, I actually picked an earlier date for Roanoke to get a 1-inch snow than Blacksburg, by one day, which I would not have done.)

But today is also the first day I'm taking entries for the snowfall prediction contest, now in its second year. Austin Broyles of Lord Botetourt High School won last year's contest, with school kids completely dusting the adults for the top spots.

The instructions to enter are below.

(1) You must give the following information to be entered:

Your name

City or town of residence (nearest town or section of county if rural). School affiliation is OK for students.

Projected date of first 1-inch snow in Roanoke, as reported by the official snowfall measuring station at WDBJ (Channel 7) studio.

Predicted total inches (rounded to nearest whole number) of snowfall between Nov. 15 and April 15 in Roanoke.

Projected date of first 1-inch snow in Blacksburg, as reported by the National Weather Service office.

Predicted total inches (rounded to the nearest whole number) of snowfall between Nov. 15 and April 15 in Blacksburg.

(2) E-mail above information to weather@roanoke.com before the end of Friday, Nov. 6. Entries will not be accepted after midnight on Nov. 7.

(3) Each entrant’s score will be calculated by adding the number of inches off each snowfall seasonal prediction and the number of days off the first 1-inch snow predictions. The lowest score wins.

It is OK to send multiple people’s entries on one e-mail, such as a family or a classroom. It is also OK to send an attachment … such as a Word document or an Excel spreadsheet … with many individual entries, as long as you identify the group they are coming from (such as a school).

The first 1-inch snow means the date on which there is at least 1 inch of snow on the ground. That means that if it snows nine-tenths of an inch before midnight on Dec. 12 and one-tenth of an inch after midnight on Dec. 13, Dec. 13 is the date that will count.

We are using official statistics, which means that sleet also counts as snowfall. If there is an inch of sleet, it counts as a 1-inch snowfall whether or not there are any snowflakes mixed in, because it will be recorded as an inch of snowfall in official records. Glaze ice from freezing rain does not count as snowfall.

Winter is getting an early start in the Rockies and High Plains, where "the biggest snowmaker to hit Colorado's Front Range in October since 1997" is under way. Click here to read the Associated Press article. This same powerhouse low could become a severe weather producer the next couple of days  and also spread more heavy rain through the central U.S. It will pull a Pacific cool front through our region by the weekend, triggering a few showers around Halloween.

Roanoke's official low fell to at least 32 briefly this morning, the first freezing temperature of the 2009-10 cool season. Blacksburg dropped to 28 and was below freezing for a few hours, indicating a growing season-ending freeze probably occurred in many areas away from the Roanoke metro area, especially north and west of Roanoke. While the first hard freeze of the year renders additional freeze warnings unnecessary, similar temperatures on Tuesday morning have led the National Weather Service in Blacksburg to issue a frost advisory for the second consecutive morning for locations from the Roanoke Valley south and east.

My storm chasing friend Dave Carroll from Blacksburg ventured up to Salt Pond Mountain today (the one Mountain Lake is on). He saw a little light snow blowing around and shot some photos of a wintry mountaintop with an autumn background. My favorite, small at the left and a larger version linked here, showns rime ice on tree branches above 4,100 feet at Bald Knob. Riming is caused by winds blowing water droplets in clouds against surfaces that are below freezing. He also shot a picture of a wee bit of snow accumulation on some of the many ferns found on the mountain. Just a hint of winter today at the area's highest elevations.

Some more snow showers are possible overnight at elevations generally above 3,000 feet (possibly creeping lower into the New River Valley after midnight) as another disturbance swings through. The bigger issue will be the potential for a growing season-ending freeze tonight and again Sunday night over most of Southwest Virginia west and north of Roanoke. Freeze warnings and watches have been issued.

A late week snow set records for earliest on record in some states to our northeast.

This taste of winter won't last long, as gradually warming temperatures are expected through the coming week.

A couple of months ago I opened the blog up to comments about a Roanoke inventor's proposal to weaken hurricanes (a subject I will return to in Weather Journal as promised a long time ago, hopefully next week).  Well, here's a different weather intervention idea: The mayor of Moscow, Yuri Luzhkov, wants to seed clouds so that they dump some of their snow outside of the city instead of burying the Russian capital. He is finding lots of opposition from environmentalists, political opponents and people who live in surrounding areas that would -- if his questionable plan works -- get much more snow.

"If it works out, Chicago or Montreal may want to copy us," said Kremlin-linked lawmaker Sergei Markov, according to the Associated Press article.

So how does that idea grab you?

As I write about in today's Weather Journal column, there was no big shock when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (the overseeing agency for the National Weather Service) came out with its winter forecast, which is basically a textbook moderate El Nino pattern. Cooler than normal temperatures with near average precipitation would be the general call for our region, based on the forecast maps.

I alluded to Accuweather.com's forecasts, which are widely followed, and are very robust on snow potential for the East this winter (as they seem to be quite frequently). I've added a few links to those forecasts and one other from some private forecasters ... all thanks to my readers who have watched out for these forecasts while I've been otherwise occupied this fall.

It does remind me a bit of the buildup to a football season ... it's all hype until the pigskin flies and the pads pop. And when it comes to snow, there have been several losing seasons recently for the region's winter fans.

Accuweather.com compares its forecast to that released by NOAA on Thursday ... overall pretty similar.

Accuweather.com's Joe Bastardi going very big on winter snow forecasts for our region.

Accuweather.com's Henry Margusity calls for 46 inches of snow for Roanoke in big Eastern winter

Forecasters Hunter Outten and Mike Petro with a similar snowy outlook (Adobe Acrobat required)

Meanwhile, winter fans, enjoy any snowflakes you see tonight or Saturday, especially in higher elevations and locations west of I-81. I will get to my thoughts ... and introduce the Winter 2009-10 snowfall prediction contest ... in two weeks.

Chilly, rainy weather is on tap through the weekend with some cold-air damming from the northeast and an active jet stream bringing a series of storms across the country that will sling Gulf of Mexico moisture over that cooler air. The rain is on the Roanoke Valley's doorstep right now (click here for local National Weather Service radar).

And by the weekend, higher elevations in our area may see the first snowflakes of the season behind a cold front.

It will take me a few days to get back in the weather groove. I've barely paid attention during the past week after being in Arkansas for my dad's funeral.

I do know that, suddenly, the weather pattern looks a lot like winter.

The New River Current ran a weekend story focused on energy bills. National Weather Service meteorologist Robert Stonefield is quoted, stating that El Nino increases the chances of having a milder than normal winter. And I've stated the same thing myself a few times before in Weather Journal columns over the years.

But a few weeks ago, I looked back on El Nino winters historically and found that it wasn't that clear-cut. In fact, winter months in previous El Nino winters were about evenly split between significantly above normal and significantly below normal in temperature, with a few close to normal. For Roanoke, El Nino winters have included our snowiest month (January 1966) and coldest winters (1977-78) on record, as well as a massive snowstorm in February 1983. The years of stronger El Ninos, like 1991-92 and 1997-98, tended to have a warmer and wetter winter than the more moderate El Nino winters, which this is projected to be as of now.

So I don't know if I'm quite ready to say that less money will be needed for heating this winter based on previous El Nino winters. Historically, wet seems a somewhat stronger bet than warm. Maybe in about another 4-6 weeks we can have a better idea how strong El Nino will be and what other factors might come into play.

In Friday's Weather Journal column, I take a look ahead at winter by taking a look back at how other El Nino winters have played out in Roanoke. The results might surprise you.

It was a chilly morning across Southwest Virginia this morning. A repeat, maybe a tad colder, is likely on Tuesday morning. The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a frost advisory for most of the New River Valley. A freeze warning is in effect for some of the mountainous counties to the north along the Virginia-West Virginia border. Don't even be surprised if the Roanoke Valley dips below 40 tonight.

The dry air that has settled into the area is allowing nighttime temperatures to plunge to near the very low dew point. The flip side is that that same dry air will warm more quickly in the day as the week goes along, and we will probably top 80 by Thursday. Warm days and cool nights, with wide departures between high and low temperatures, are likely to be the mode this week.