On the weather front, it's probably a good time to take a long break, before winter gets rolling. I might jump back on here if something extraordinary is happening, but otherwise, don't expect to see blog posts for nearly 3 weeks.

While Ida is unlikely to affect the U.S. as an organized tropical system, there's some chance its subtropical moisture could get pulled into the U.S. as new Pacific cold fronts and low-pressure systems move across in the next 7-10 days or so.

Near-freezing temperatures are expected in the Roanoke Valley on Wednesday morning and sub-freezing temperatures are likely in many other parts of Southwest Virginia as a dry air mass and lengthening nights allow for rapid temperature dropping after sunset. Freeze and frost advisories have not been issued since cold mornings on Oct. 19 and 20 effectively ended the growing season in most areas. Still, if you have any plants you've put back outside in some of the sunny, warmer days, get them in tonight.

(By the way, I intended to predict a first snow on Dec. 13 for Roanoke, not Dec. 3 as was published. However, since it published that way, I am stuck with that as my pick. As it's published, I actually picked an earlier date for Roanoke to get a 1-inch snow than Blacksburg, by one day, which I would not have done.)

But today is also the first day I'm taking entries for the snowfall prediction contest, now in its second year. Austin Broyles of Lord Botetourt High School won last year's contest, with school kids completely dusting the adults for the top spots.

The instructions to enter are below.

(1) You must give the following information to be entered:

Your name

City or town of residence (nearest town or section of county if rural). School affiliation is OK for students.

Projected date of first 1-inch snow in Roanoke, as reported by the official snowfall measuring station at WDBJ (Channel 7) studio.

Predicted total inches (rounded to nearest whole number) of snowfall between Nov. 15 and April 15 in Roanoke.

Projected date of first 1-inch snow in Blacksburg, as reported by the National Weather Service office.

Predicted total inches (rounded to the nearest whole number) of snowfall between Nov. 15 and April 15 in Blacksburg.

(2) E-mail above information to weather@roanoke.com before the end of Friday, Nov. 6. Entries will not be accepted after midnight on Nov. 7.

(3) Each entrant’s score will be calculated by adding the number of inches off each snowfall seasonal prediction and the number of days off the first 1-inch snow predictions. The lowest score wins.

It is OK to send multiple people’s entries on one e-mail, such as a family or a classroom. It is also OK to send an attachment … such as a Word document or an Excel spreadsheet … with many individual entries, as long as you identify the group they are coming from (such as a school).

The first 1-inch snow means the date on which there is at least 1 inch of snow on the ground. That means that if it snows nine-tenths of an inch before midnight on Dec. 12 and one-tenth of an inch after midnight on Dec. 13, Dec. 13 is the date that will count.

We are using official statistics, which means that sleet also counts as snowfall. If there is an inch of sleet, it counts as a 1-inch snowfall whether or not there are any snowflakes mixed in, because it will be recorded as an inch of snowfall in official records. Glaze ice from freezing rain does not count as snowfall.

There appear to be no ... wet extremes anywhere on the horizon.

What dummy put these words on his blog Saturday ... oh yeah, it was me, and I was taunted by it today with 13 hours of rain on a 13 hour, 20-minute drive from Arkansas to Virginia Tuesday.

It just goes to show you that we are in the time of year when you can't take your eyes off the pattern even for a day or two. What looked like a fairly weak disturbance a few days ago ended up spinning up a strong low that has spread Gulf of Mexico moisture northward, creating a rainy Tuesday over much of the East.

If this is a sign of the El Nino-driven winter ahead ... and this kind of wet storm is very El Nino-like ... we'll have lots of interesting things to watch in the weeks and months ahead -- though many of them may just be wet like this.

-- Erica Myatt