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Weather Journal

with Kevin Myatt

Day 1: Driving away from severe weather

NORTH LITTLE ROCK, Ark. -- There were 20 tornado reports from Ohio to Georgia on Sunday, and scores of hail and wind reports, some from our own backyard in Southwest Virginia.

But our group of 12 storm chasers drove away from all of that.

We encountered a brief round of gusty squalls with a few flashes of lightning in northeast Tennessee. That was it for storms on the first day of Storm Chase 2008.

What we ran through over northeast Tennessee was the same cluster of storms developing that would later affect Southwest Virginia. A split in the morning precipitation shield, followed by some breaks in clouds in some areas allowing the sun to shine, cause the atmosphere to destabilize more than earlier expected much farther north than severe storms had been forecast. With upper air wind currents blowing strongly in different directions, this caused many storms to develop rotating updrafts, which led to hail, gusty winds and even some tornadoes.

But these storms were racing 50 mph or greater through hilly, tree-covered terrain. And we wanted to be in position for a possible Tuesday intercept of what may be a very potent severe weather situation in the open plains of Texas and Oklahoma.

So, though we monitored and watched the severe weather situation unfold, we only briefly connected with today's storms, and kept moving west. Our student leader, Sandy LaCorte of North Carolina-Asheville, even alerted family and friends as she watched on radar as a tornadic storm moved close to them on the outskirts of Charlotte, N.C.

Going for the two in the bush rather than one in the hand, maybe. More likely, we are opting for a flock in the wide open Plains rather a couple of fast-moving, hard-to-see tweeters in the Eastern U.S. thicket.

MONDAY: Likely a travel day west from our overnight abode here in North Little Rock, Ark., to near the Red River between Oklahoma and Texas, getting us in position for a possible severe weather outbreak on Tuesday.

Is it doing the Southwest Virginia split?

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Some forecast models showed that something like this might happen. The initial rain band with the strong low pressure system moving across the Ohio Valley today is splitting into two parts -- one to our northwest, one to our south -- with only a thin band of showers entering Southwest Virginia this morning. Additional showers and some thunderstorms may develop later today, and the National Weather Service in Blacksburg still has a flood watch for counties mostly east of Roanoke. But we've seen this morning's phenomenon many times before with storm systems, whereby the best storm energy goes north and the best moisture stays south, used up by stronger storms.

Another element of this storm: The potential for strong winds. A high wind watch is in effect for many counties tonight and Monday, including the Roanoke and New River valleys. Click here for the latest watches and warnings from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg.

I'm about to hit the road for Storm Chase 2008, but I'll keep tabs on Southwest Virginia weather along the way, as well.

Another deadly day in the nation's mid-section

The tornado death toll continues to climb this spring, with at least 19 killed in Oklahoma and Missouri today. This is the same storm system that will bring a threat of heavy rain to Southwest Virginia on Sunday. A flood watch has been issued for several counties just east of the Blue Ridge, where the rain was heaviest on Thursday night and will face a greater flood risk with additional rain.

Round 2: More rain, probably not many severe storms

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The second of three expected strong low pressure systems is set to move to the northwest of the region on Sunday. While it will drag abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture northward, and upper air winds would certainly be favorable for severe weather, cooler, drier air wedging in from the northeast will probably render the severe thunderstorm threat minimal to non-existent on Sunday. As a result, we can expect rain, including some hard showers and perhaps a few mild thunderstorms, but probably not the repeat of Thursday night's severe weather outbreak. The greatest risk of severe storms will be much farther south, in Georgia and South Carolina. Rainfall amounts through our area could be quite substantial, as this map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows.

For Storm Chase Trip 2008 ... it means we may be headed through some heavy rain in the morning on the way out, and we may look for the possibility of some stronger storms as we enter eastern Tennessee late in the morning.

Storm chaser arrest triggers controversy

After our 2007 storm chase trip, I wrote a Weather Journal column about the growing number of storm chasers in the central U.S. and the occasional tension with local aw enforcement officials. An incident in Crane County, Texas, earlier this week has brought that into the limelight.

A man leading a commercial storm chasing tour, while also reporting storm information to the National Weather Service, was arrested by a deputy sheriff and charged with obstruction of a highway. (Click here for article, along with video clips and photos.) The storm chaser and at least one witness says he was safely parked in a roadside park, not obstructing anyone. The sheriff's office later issued a statement saying they were acting to protect the man and his tour group from tornadoes, and also that he wasn't reporting storm information to the local emergency office.

The storm chaser community is outraged; a discussion thread goes on for many pages on the storm chaser Web site Stormtrack. It sounds as if there might be a protracted legal battle over this incident.

Our dealings with law enforcement over the years have been, without exception, extremely positive. Most of the time, law enforcement officials in small towns throughout the central U.S. just come and chat with us when they see our vans with the magnets and the antennas.

Faced with a similar situation, I have no doubt that we would have unquestionably complied with the officer's order to move to a different location, even if it meant sacrificing a better storm viewing spot. We want to be seen in the best light possible, and it certainly wouldn't be worth the trouble with two vanloads of college and high school students.

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Weather bulletins

  • Storm Chase Trip 2008 -

    Recent severe weather in our region has only heightened both the interest level and the seriousness we have in the subject as we prepare to head out on the 2008 storm chase trip Sunday morning (May 11). It is quite possible we will be heading into some threat of severe storms almost right out of the gate on Sunday in Southwest Virginia and eastern Tennessee, though our main goal is to get far enough west by Tuesday for a possible Southern Plains severe weather outbreak.

    Below is a link to the main chase page that includes our position mapped on radar and a link to a blog being kept by the students on the trip:

    Storm Chase 2008 tracking page

    Of course, I will be providing daily updates here on Roanoke.com as we head into a very confusing and uncertain weather pattern.

    Storm chase team members are listed below by residence and school/professional affiliation
    :
    Dave Carroll (Blacksburg), Pulaski County High School teacher and Virginia Tech adjunct instructor, leader
    Kevin Myatt (Roanoke County), Roanoke Times weather columnist, co-leader
    Sandy LaCorte, (Davidson, N.C.) North Carolina-Asheville graduate (as of May 10, officially a meteorologist!), student trainer
    Morgan Weeks (Floyd), North Carolina-Asheville meteorology student
    Jennifer Henderson (Pearisburg), Virginia Tech instructor in interdisciplinary studies
    Jessica Burchard (Greensboro N.C.), Virginia Tech student
    Trevor Owen (Danville), Virginia Tech student
    Jordan Rollins (Seaford, Del.), Virginia Tech student
    Andrew Smith (Mechanicsville) Virginia Tech student
    Taylor White (Blacksburg), Virginia Tech student
    Marielle Taft, (Cabin John, Md.) Walt Whitman High School (Bethesda, Md.) student
    Joel Willis, Pulaski County High School student

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About this blog

Mug of Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States."

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