Fourth of July weatherPosted Jun30, 2006 at 11:17 PMAppropriately, for the Fourth of July holiday period ... much longer than a weekend, since it stretches through Saturday through Tuesday ... our weather will be typically summer, all the way. We'll have sunny to partly cloudy days, with hot temperatures, exceeding 90 in many areas this weekend. That afternoon heating, combined with some moisture, could cook up some scattered afternoon thunderstorms. That means it could be a downpour if you happen to be under one, but others not far away will barely notice. By the middle part of next week, another front could sink southward and kick off more widespread thunderstorm activity. We'll worry about that later. Meanwhile, I'm going to take a few days off from writing about weather to enjoy the holiday. Drought has been easedPosted Jun29, 2006 at 04:54 PM
The inset map shows only a little yellow, or abnormally dry conditions, creeping into Southside Virginia. Western Virginia is clean and white, signalling no drought problems. Click here for the full map. Still, much of the central U.S. and parts of the Southeast are experiencing abnormally dry conditions. The Southern Plains area has had some improvement since early in the spring, but with the heart of summer setting upon us, the dry situation looks bleak in many parts of the country. For now, we're not one of those areas. A couple of months of dryness could get us back there, though. Roanoke is still officially 3 inches below normal in precipitation for the year, while Blacksburg is about one inch above normal. Some pretty storm cloudsPosted Jun28, 2006 at 10:50 PMSome thunderstorms did end up firing around the Roanoke and New River valleys this afternoon, producing some beautiful scenes of orange-backlit thunderheads ... hope to have some pictures up in the near future. (These are NOT those pictures above, as you can read in the accompanying blog entry). One report of 3/4-inch hail, which would be marginally severe, from just east of Blacksburg was reported to the National Weather Service. Looks like we're back to typical summer fare for several days ... partly cloudy, warm to hot days, with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms todayPosted Jun28, 2006 at 12:51 PMThe leftover moisture from days of rain, both already in the air and evaporating from the surface, may allow for some thunderstorms to fire today as daytime heating continues. With cooler, drier air aloft for the warm, moist air to bubble into, and a weak cold front moving toward the area, the potential will exist for some isolated severe thunderstorms with hail and gusty winds. A few heavy downpours are possible, but not on the scale of recent days, though any heavy rain on wet soils and swollen streams will carry a flooding risk. The Storm Prediction Center has put our area in a slight risk zone for severe thunderstorms today. UPDATE 4:35 P.M.: We are no longer in the Storm Prediction Center's slight risk, but some storms are starting to develop just east of Roanoke. If you are in eastern Roanoke County, Bedford County or Franklin County, you may see some lightning, gusty winds, small hail or heavy downpours in the next hour or two. Final rain tallyPosted Jun27, 2006 at 09:58 PMBelow (click on "Continue reading" if you are reading the full blog) are the final rainfall totals ... unofficial observations, for the most part ... for the last 5 days from a number of sites across the area, as reported to the National Weather Service in Blacksburg: The end is nearPosted Jun27, 2006 at 03:44 PMDry air is finally punching eastward, pushing the pesky stationary front and the tropical moisture clinging to it eastward. At 3:30 p.m., the western edge of the rain area was across the Roanoke Valley, shifting eastward. This will bring the flooding rains to an end across the area. However, many creeks and rivers will continue to rise for hours to come as runoff from several days of heavy rain continue. Current projections are for the Roanoke River to rise to between 13 and 14.5 feet around 6 p.m. this evening, according to the National Weather Service. It was sitting at 12.4 feet at the Walnut Street gauge at about 3:30 p.m. One more day of delugePosted Jun27, 2006 at 10:33 AMWe needed and wanted rain a week ago ... and as we feared beforehand, got too much of it too fast. Again, there are just too many advisories and warnings out for me to summarize here. Click on the National Weather Service-Blacksburg Web site for a full report on those. A flash flood watch remains in effect for the area through this evening. Of interest to Roanokers ... the Roanoke River is now projected to crest at 13.2 feet this afternoon. Flood stage is 10 feet, and was reported at 11.2 feet at the Walnut Street Bridge this morning. If the crest is realized, it will flood the Roanoke City Mills, the Norfolk and Western railroad tracks, and, yes, enter Victory Stadium one last time, at least partially. (UPDATE 11:50 a.m.: THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE ROANOKE RIVER, AS IT HAS STARTED RECEDING ... HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ARE HEADED TOWARD THE AREA, SO THINGS COULD CHANGE YET AGAIN) Roanoke Regional Airport has received 4.08 inches of rain on Monday and has had 5.34 inches since the rainy period began Friday. So this rain event is comparable to the remnants of hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in September 2004. (A listing of other rain totals across the area since Friday is at the end of this entry ... click "Continue Reading" if you're reading the full blog) The good news is that, while there will likely be plenty of rain today, the end is in sight. A dipping low pressure trough to our west will have enough push to start shoving this stalled front, and the thick tropical moisture, northeastward. Drier southwest winds will kick in late tonight and Wednesday, and the rain episode will taper to showers. Raindrops will be few and far between for at least a couple of days. Stormy day, another rainy nightPosted Jun26, 2006 at 07:58 PMBetween Roanoke and Boones Mill shortly after 4 p.m. today, I ran though an intense thunderstorm with frequent lightning and some of the heaviest rain I've ever seen since I've lived in this area. Water was overflowing ditches onto U.S. 220 in just a few minutes. I was not surprised when a flash flood warning was issued for Franklin County. I had heard the tornado warning for Henry County and was trying to get where I could see that storm. I didn't get far enough south to see any of the funnel clouds reported around Martinsville, but I saw some roiling storm clouds on the south side of the Franklin County storm. (I have been shooting a few photos during this rainy episode, and hope to have some up eventually ... I'm using old-fashioned film with a digital camera being repaired, so it'll be a few days, if I have anything worth posting.) There are so many flood warnings and advisories out now that I won't even attempt to summarize them here. Go to the National Weather Service-Blacksburg Web site, linked here, for a complete rundown of those. We may end up with a similar setup tonight as last night, with a broad area of constant rain, interspersed with heavy downpours. With each time this happens, the potential consequences get worse, as at least the outer soil is now saturated and many streams are running near bank full. Today's tornado warning in Henry County also signals a new factor: Increased wind shear aloft. This could cause more storms in Tuesday's daytime heating to become severe, with localized high wind downbursts the main threat. An isolated tornado is also possible in this highly steamy tropical environment, with the potential for shearing winds aloft (moving in different directions, potentially causing rotations) and low cloud bases. This wet pattern could begin to break by Wednesday. Heaviest rain in months ... more to comePosted Jun26, 2006 at 12:14 PMIn the 24 hours ending at 8 a.m., Roanoke has received 3.06 inches of rain, according to the National Weather Service.About two inches of that fell since midnight. That cuts about a third out of our annual rainfall deficit ... but it also caused some scattered, mostly minor flooding problems, more serious up toward Covington and Lexington, where a number of creeks and even some rivers are out of their banks. In Roanoke, that's our heaviest 24-hour rain total since 4.17 inches fell with the remnants of Hurricane Jeanne on Sept. 28, 2004 -- you probably remember the major flooding from that. That came three weeks after 4.40 fell in a day with the remanants of Hurricane Frances. The last time we had anything close to this was when we got 2.95 inches in a 48-hour period of Oct. 7-8, 2005, which I remember vividly since it ended 3 hours before my wedding. We had almost 5 inches in 6 days during that October episode. There's more to come. A flash flood watch remains in effect, and afternoon heating combined with a wind flow reaping rich tropical moisture off the Atlantic will cause additional showers and thunderstorms to fire this afternoon, some with very heavy rain. Scroll down this listing on the National Weather Service Web site for flood reports across the area last night. Click here for photos and a local news report on flooding Below (click the "continue reading " link if you are reading the full blog) is the National Weather Service-Blacksburg office's list of 24-hour rain totals across the area through 10 a.m. Keep in mind that these amounts are on top of whatever fell in the given areas Friday and Saturday. Continue reading "Heaviest rain in months ... more to come" » Rainy nightPosted Jun26, 2006 at 01:11 AMThe rain has finally arrived in earnest in Roanoke overnight ... in fact, as I write this early Monday morning at about 1 a.m., an urban and small stream flood advisory is in effect until 2:45 a.m. for a swath of counties along the Blue Ridge, the Roanoke Valley, and the Allegheny Highlands. The National Weather Service in Blacksburg reports that 1 to 3 inches of rain has been common across these areas, with rain continuing to fall. Heavy rain has caused at least one mudslide in Grayson County and caused creeks to overflow onto Route 18 at Covington, according to reports listed by the National Weather Service. What we've been experiencing in Roanoke and surrounding areas overnight is upslope-enhanced showers, as southeast winds lift dense, tropical moisture up and over the Blue Ridge, condensing the moisture into clouds and showers, with a few claps of thunder now and then. We'll continue to see this upslope effect off and on the next day or two, with afternoon heating increasing the chances of more intense thunderstorms with torrential downpours. Roanoke still missing most of itPosted Jun25, 2006 at 06:49 PMRoanoke continues to come up on the light end of the moisture-rich weather pattern, as only .32 inch has been squeezed out on the regional airport between Friday and 5 p.m. today (Sunday). Except for some areas near Salem, Glenvar and around Bent Mountain that may have caught heavier storms on Friday evening, amounts are probably pretty similar across the Roanoke Valley. Meanwhile, Blacksburg totalled another 1.01 inches on Saturday to run its total up to 2.77 inches of rain through 5 p.m. today ... and radar shows some additional rain has likely fallen there since then. Lynchburg collected 1.35 inches today. Amounts vary greatly across the area (see other 2-day amounts through 10-day Sunday here) The next 36 hours or so, through early Tuesday, are likely to be the peak of this rainy period, as abundant tropical moisture, southeasterly upslope flow and a weak subtropical circulation get involved along with the stationary front just to our west and occasional weak disturbances moving along it. I'm guessing the Roanoke area will finally get nailed by some pretty decent rain during the upcoming couple of days. Spotty rainsPosted Jun24, 2006 at 09:32 PMSo far, the spotty nature of the much-advertised heavy rain threat has been obvious. Blacksburg received 1.76 inches of rain on Friday and is getting soaked again tonight by an evening thunderstorm. Roanoke, officially at the regional airport, has had only .20 inch since Friday. The wet could get wetter, or the fortunes could turn around entirely as this moist period continues. Still, the threat for torrential downpours exists throughout our area, and that's why the flash flood watch will continue through at least Sunday night. Flash flood watchPosted Jun24, 2006 at 01:26 PMA flash flood watch is in effect for most of western Virginia, including the Roanoke and New River valleys, through Sunday night. Heavy rainfall of 3 to 4 inches in an hour could occur in some of the heavier thunderstorms that develop over the next couple of days, and this would be more than enough to overwhelm drainage ... especially in areas that received heavy rain on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop across the area, and will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and evening. For more details, see the web site for the National Weather Service at Blacksburg. The soaking begins ... and here's whyPosted Jun23, 2006 at 11:47 PMThe first of what likely will be several days of rain and thunderstorms in Southwest Virginia dumped some torrential rainfall amounts on some areas while just barely wetting the ground in others. Radar estimates show that parts of Henry County just south of Martinsville had the heaviest rain, with amounts near 3 inches. A similar amount appears to fallen near the Peaks of Otter, with 1-2 inches over parts of Montgomery County, southern Roanoke County and northern Franklin County. The areas with the heaviest rain also line up with where there were the most severe weather reports of high winds and large hail. We may do this again today (Saturday) ... and then again Sunday, Monday, etc. Different areas may get the downpours each day, and there could be some more localized damaging winds and hail in some of the heavier thunderstorm downdrafts. 
Keying the numbers on the map: (1) A slow moving front is expected to stall along the Appalachian Mountains for several days. This front will act as a focus for moisture, help provide lift for daily thunderstorm development, and also act as a guide wire for low pressure systems moving to the northeast, each providing more moisture and instability for storms. Wind damage, large hail reportedPosted Jun23, 2006 at 06:59 PM8:37 p.m.: An urban and small stream flood advisory is in effect for Henry County and the city of Martinsville. Reports of nearly 3 inches of rain have been received south of Martinsville with heavy rain continuing to fall, according to the National Weather Service. 7:55 p.m.: Hail 3/4 to 1 1/4 inches in diameter has been reported in Henry County, according to the National Weather Service in Blacksburg. Follow the latest storm reports by scrolling on the weather service's Public Information page. 7:17 p.m.: Severe thunderstorm warnings are now in effect for Montgomery and Giles counties as well, effective until 8:15 p.m., for storms near Blacksburg and Eggleston. (UPDATE 9:05 p.m.: Wind damage was reported at 7:40 p.m. at Elliston, where several large limbs were blown down, according to reports made to the weather service) 7 p.m.: Severe thunderstorm warnings are ongoing for Franklin and Henry counties, and the National Weather Service in Blacksburg is reporting that trees have been blown down between Rocky Mount and Burnt Chimney. Strong thunderstorms firingPosted Jun23, 2006 at 04:23 PMScattered thunderstorms are firing around Southwest Virginia this afternoon. A few minutes ago, a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for southeast Roanoke County until 5 p.m. as a storm near Bent Mountain moves eastward. (It was originally issued for Roanoke city as well, but then cancelled as the track will be to the south of the city.) Expect storms to continue developing through the afternoon and evening, with locally heavy rainfall, strong gusty winds and frequent lightning as the main threats. You can follow them on National Weather Service radar, linked here. UPDATE, 5:11 p.m.: The severe thunderstorm warning for Roanoke County was lifted about a half-hour after it was issued. Storms in this upper air environment with weak winds will tend to strengthen and then dissipate rapidly. This was a very small cell that only covered a few miles. Please email me or add a comment here if you live in south Roanoke County near Poages Mill or Bent Mountain and experienced any severe weather this afternoon. Tropical downpours?Posted Jun22, 2006 at 07:05 PMThere could be a new player in our potential for heavy rainfall the next several days. This is from a 5:30 p.m. Tropical Weather Outlook statement from the National Hurricane Center: PRESSURES ARE GRADUALLY FALLING NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. This disturbance could move toward the East Coast next week and throw deep tropical moisture against the stalled front that, by itself, will be a focus point for rain and thunderstorms through the next five days or so, at least. Whether this will strengthen into a named tropical storm, we'll have to wait and see. Either way ... it looks like some interesting weather over the next several days. Record high in RoanokePosted Jun22, 2006 at 05:30 PMToday's high at Roanoke Regional Airport as of 5 p.m. is 97 degrees ... beating the old record of 95 in 1988. Blacksburg's high of 88 came up 5 degrees short of a record. I don't know what the record is for Staunton, but the 5 p.m. temperature there was an even 100. This will be another short-lived heat wave, as temperatures will cool back to more seasonable levels over the next several days with daily showers and thunderstorms. Record heat possible todayPosted Jun22, 2006 at 12:53 PMWe used to have a saying in Arkansas: "If it's 90 at noon, it'll be 100 pretty soon." It was 91 at noon at Roanoke Regional Airport. 100 today ... probably not ... but today's high temperature likely will make a run at the June 22 record of 95, set in 1988. Blacksburg's record of 93 in 1964 will be harder to get to, as it was only 86 at the home of the Hokies at noon. High pressure ridging aloft will cause temperatures to soar today, before low pressure aloft and a slow moving cold front cut into the high on Friday and especially during the weekend. Therein lies the heavy rain risk that I discussed a couple of blog entries earlier. And if you haven't had enough heat, here's a link to an Associated Press story about the National Academy of Sciences concluding the planet is hotter now than it has been in the last 400 years. I'm not connecting today's heat to that ... we've actually been cooler than normal for most of the last two months ... but it's another item to consider in the ongoing global warming debate as you sweat out a hot early summer day. One hot night!Posted Jun21, 2006 at 07:19 PMThe temperature at Kearney, Nebraska, jumped from 70 degrees to 93 in less than hour Tuesday ... between 4 and 5 a.m! I'll let the National Weather Service at Hastings, Neb., linked here, explain the phenomenon of heat bursts. Drought relief coming?Posted Jun21, 2006 at 06:09 PM
This Hazards Assessment map from the Climate Prediction Center depicts that potential for this weekend. An upper-level low pressure system digging into the eastern United States might be able to lift enough Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture north and northwestward into a slow-moving frontal boundary that a prolonged rain event will be possible. It would take a ton of rain for widespread flooding to be possible. Localized flooding can occur with any heavy downpour too fast for drainage to handle, regardless of how dry it's been, but I would be skeptical about large-scale flooding with Roanoke more than 9 inches below normal for the year in rainfall, and more than a foot below normal dating back to last year. So overall, widespread and/or heavy rain would be a good thing for this area ... and other dry areas. Compare the two maps below: the 6-10-day projected rainfall probability map from the Climate Prediction Center and the current drought map from the National Drought Mitigation Center. The first map shows the probability of regions having above normal or below normal precipitation; the greener the color the more likely it will be wet late next week, with yellow and brown hues representing dry conditions. The second map shows current drought conditions, with yellow and brown as light drought, and deeper shades of orange and red as extreme drought. 
 Notice how well the projected rain areas line up with the current drought areas, not just in the east, but in Texas and the Southern Plains? Bad weather storiesPosted Jun20, 2006 at 12:54 PMSome news stories today from elsewhere in the nation and world that should make us appreciate our benign weather pattern: Giant waves, churned by a distant Pacific storm, in Central America A few storms todayPosted Jun19, 2006 at 11:08 AMWith deeper moisture back in the area today, daytime heating along with a weak cool front moving through will likely trigger a few thunderstorms around the area. Some of the storms could be strong, with brief gusty winds, small hail and heavy downpours. Upper level winds are not favorable for a lot of severe weather, though an isolated severe thunderstorm (57-mph-plus winds, 3/4-inch hail) cannot be ruled out. Follow local National Weather Service radar for the location of storms as they develop. The front that moves through will only be a brief speed bump for the week's temperatures. Expect highs to return to the upper 80s and low 90s by midweek, with only scattered afternoon thunderstorms. A new front approaching by the weekend could bring more widespread, organized thunderstorm activity. The big blue "H"Posted Jun16, 2006 at 05:44 PM
That "H" marks the center of a high pressure system that will bring warm, stable air over us for the next few days, especially on Saturday. As a result, daytime highs will soar toward 90, maybe beyond it, and there will be little or no rain through the weekend. Air rotates clockwise around the "H," so that is also sweeping Gulf of Mexico moisture northward and northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico toward the nation's mid-section. That is an important development since there hasn't been much deep Gulf moisture at all since the big upper low in mid-May scoured the atmopshere clean of it, all the way to the Yucatan Peninsula. The return of Gulf moisture, banging up against a cold front, has brought a rash of severe weather today from the Texas Panhandle to the Dakotas ... the Plains acting like the Plains are supposed to in late spring. See Saturday's Weather Journal column, on Virginia page 2 in print and on Roanoke.com, for a more in-depth discussion of the high pressure system over us and its implications. Raleigh gets soaked -- but not the 'NokePosted Jun14, 2006 at 08:57 PMRaleigh-Durham has been in the throes of a drought for several months, running many inches of rainfall below normal. On Wednesday, thanks to the remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto, Raleigh caught up on months of rain in one day. With more than 5 1/2 inches of rain at the airport, Raleigh's rainfall total for the year jumped to 19.89 inches ... 0.21 inch ABOVE normal. Not in Roanoke. We got a whopping 0.01 from Alberto ... leaving us at 11.42 inches for the year, more than 8 inches below normal. Some other rainfall totals as of early Wednesday evening in Virginia and North Carolina, courtesy of Alberto: VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA Waterspouts/tornadoes in Outer BanksPosted Jun14, 2006 at 03:23 PMThe remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto have spun off a whole frenzy of waterspouts near Cape Hatteras this afternoon. One crossed over the island near Frisco, officially classifying it as a tornado since it made land. I wonder if there is someone from this area vacationing near there who might have a photo of one of these 'spouts. Let me know if you know of anyone. Alberto likely to slip eastPosted Jun14, 2006 at 12:55 AM
You can link to the HPC yourself later today to see how the forecast may have changed. (Current 24-hour rain map) We'll see if Alberto can throw a little moisture back to the Blue Ridge as it takes a path east across the Carolina coastal region and off the coast near Hampton Roads. Who will Alberto visit next?Posted Jun13, 2006 at 09:57 AMTropical Storm Alberto didn't quite make it to hurricane status. Mostly, it is a big, spinning slug of heavy rain this morning ... rain that is actually welcome in many drought areas. Any travel south or southeast of Roanoke the next 48 hours, especially toward Myrtle Beach or the Outer Banks, will take you into Alberto's downpours as the storm weakens to a tropical depression. Parts of the eastern Carolinas will get several inches of rain ... 3 or more, quite likely, locally 8-plus. As for our area, it's a close call whether we'll get direct effects from Alberto. The storm may sling a few rainbands westward into the Piedmont on Wednesday. From the Blue Ridge westward, it doesn't look like anything more than a few showers or scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday ... and even those may be more due to an upper level disturbance diving southeastward rather than Alberto directly. Another Florida hurricane?Posted Jun12, 2006 at 12:06 PMTropical Storm Alberto found some mojo in the Gulf of Mexico and unexpectedly blossomed into a storm with 70 mph winds this morning. That puts it on the verge of hurricane strength (74 mph). The National Hurricane Center has raised hurricane warnings for a part of the western peninsula and the eastern panhandle of Florida, as the posted graphic shows. If Alberto reaches hurricane strength and strikes Florida as expected, it will become the eighth hurricane to strike the state in three years ... and this expected busy hurricane season will be off to a powerful start very early. While it will be a "weak" hurricane, likely a minimal Category 1, Alberto will be strong enough to blow down tree limbs and power lines, toss loose objects around, and rip off a few shingles. Think of how much damage 60-mph thunderstorm winds can cause around here blowing for just a few minutes. 75-mph hurricane winds blowing for hours will cause that much more damage. Alberto will also dump torrential rains. The good news with that is that Florida is in a long-term drought and has suffered many wildfires, so to an extent, the rain will be welcome and beneficial. But 10 inches of rain in a few hours can still overwhelm drainage and cause flash flooding even in the most parched areas. Alberto probably will not have time to develop the classic look of a hurricane, with an eye and perfect spiral bands. It did become a more rounded storm with rain and thunderstorms nearer its center overnight; this helped it develop rapidly into the near-hurricane it is now. Once it makes landfall, it will move over the southeastern U.S., dumping flooding rains on Georgia and South Carolina, and probably spawning a few tornadoes. It looks like it will pass east of our area with little or no effect. If you're traveling to Myrtle Beach or the Outer Banks the next couple of days, expect some squally, stormy weather. Update on Alberto, severe weatherPosted Jun11, 2006 at 09:16 PMQuick update on what we've been following the last couple of days. Tropical Storm Alberto has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, northwest of Cuba. It's expected to head toward Florida, where it's primary effect will be to dump tons of heavy rain ... several inches to locally a foot or more. It is unlikely that Alberto, now with 45 mph maximum winds, will become the Atlantic season's first hurricane (74-plus mph winds). It's poorly organized and has actually become more poorly organized during the day. The bulk of its rain and wind are far to the east of the actual circulation center, which has been hard for forecasters to pinpoint. And it's fighting strong winds aloft blowing out of the southwest that will likely keep the storm from intensifying. (Latest Gulf of Mexico satellite image) Closer to home, severe weather did break out as expected along the North Carolina-Virginia border and points south this afternoon. There has been one reported fatality already: Lightning hit a tree and knocked it onto a motorcyclist on Interstate 85 near Durham. Lots and lots of large hail and wind damage reports are coming out of North Carolina, with a few in extreme southern Virginia. Later tonight, a strong complex of storms in Kentucky may blow into the Roanoke and New River valleys with some gusty winds, heavy rain and a little thunder, but it will probably weaken some as the setting sun takes away the daytime heating. Link to the National Weather Service in Blacksburg for the latest forecasts, watches and warnings, and local radar. Updates on severe threat, new depressionPosted Jun10, 2006 at 06:10 PMSunday severe weather: North Carolina looks to be a better bet than our area, with greater heating, moisture and instability present down there. This is usually the way it works with severe thunderstorm chances in our area. But the upper atmospheric wind dynamics look pretty strong, with strong winds aloft, and changing directions and speeds with height known as shear. This could get storms that do erupt to spin, increasing the chances of large hail, high winds and even tornadoes. Link to the Storm Prediction Center for the latest on risk areas and severe weather watches, and to the National Weather Service in Blacksburg for local warnings and radar. Tropical depression: The disturbance I showed you Friday is now a tropical depression, the first of the season in the Atlantic, with wind speeds of around 35 mph. Right now, it is a big mass of soaking rain that could give parts of Cuba up to 2 1/2 feet ... yes, I said FEET ... of rain over the next 48 hours. Overall, the warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico favor strengthe |
