October ends warm; November will begin coldPosted Oct31, 2006 at 11:22 AMThis last day of October will be the second in a row with temperatures in the low to mid 70s, about 10 degrees above normal for high temperatures this time of year. It won't be enough to stop October from finishing as the second month in a row with below normal temperatures overall, though. This mild weather is left over behind the weekend storm system that brought so much rain then wind to the area. That system brought in air of Pacific origin rather than from Canada. Canadian air begins getting re-established in the area on Wednesday, and particularly for the weekend, as a couple of fronts move through. These fronts will be mostly dry. Expect highs by the weekend to be in the 50s with lows near or a little below freezing. Climate change conferences in our area this weekPosted Oct28, 2006 at 11:27 PMThere will be a couple of events this week on climate change issues, including an all-day series of panel discussions in Blacksburg on Thursday and a lecture on hurricanes and climate change in Roanoke on Friday evening. You can click above for more information on each event. Everyone knows it's windyPosted Oct28, 2006 at 05:57 PMThe strong southern stream low pressure system that punched through a lot of rain on Friday has passed, and strong whips are whipping through the area behind it. This map from the National Weather Service shows areas that are under high wind warnings and wind advisories through the night. The winds, with some gusts topping 50 mph, will be strong enough for scattered damage to trees and some power outages, especially in higher elevation areas. Comma-shaped storm = exclamation point rainfallPosted Oct27, 2006 at 03:27 PM
The "deformation zone" is the name for the comma head part in Missouri, where the precipitation band "deforms" on the back side, gradually moving/diminishing from the west. A month or two from now that would probably be a major clocking from snow ... imagine trying to play a World Series game through that! For today, it's just a cold miserable rain. It's a pretty chilly rain here too. Click here for a map of projected rainfall totals across Southwest Virginia from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg. Big Colorado snow wallopPosted Oct26, 2006 at 05:02 PMParts of central and eastern Colorado are experiencing a huge winter storm today, on the back side of this mass of rain that will be affecting us the next couple of days. Click here for snow reports from Colorado, and here for a look a few highway webcams. Another southern-stream soaker on the wayPosted Oct25, 2006 at 06:36 PM
Once again, this is the kind of system that, were it only about 6 weeks down the road, would be tricky for forecasting precipitation type. This early in the season, it's still hard to hold the cold air in, so we will just get a chilly rain. It will be interesting to see if the cold air from Canada and the wet El Nino-inspired southern stream systems keep being timed this closely as we approach winter. A system like this would have snow changing to freezing rain written all over it. More cold-weather recordsPosted Oct25, 2006 at 06:29 PMSome cold-weather records set across the National Weather Service-Blacksburg's forecast area the past couple of days: * Blacksburg, lowest high temperature for Oct. 24 -- 41, breaking previous mark of 44 set in 1999. Also of note: Quinwood, W.Va., in Greenbrier County picked up 2 inches of snow on Monday night and Tuesday, with about an inch in some other parts of the county. Snow is backPosted Oct23, 2006 at 09:22 PMAfter about a 7-month absence, snow has returned to Western Virginia this evening with snow showers common west of Interstate 81 and even a few quick snow flurries here in the Roanoke Valley. I saw some with my own eyes tonight on U.S. 220 just south of Roanoke. Coldest Oct. 23 on recordPosted Oct23, 2006 at 06:11 PMRoanoke and Blacksburg set records for the coldest high temperature ever set on this date, according to the National Weather Service in Blacksburg. The weather service's statement on the record "low maximums," also including records at Danville and Bluefield, W.Va., is below: RECORD EVENT REPORT ...NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET OR TIED IN VIRGINIA AT BLUEFIELD WEST VIRGINIA THE HIGH TODAY WAS 40 DEGREES...THE OLD AT BLACKSBURG VIRGINIA THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY WAS 42 AT ROANOKE VIRGINIA...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY WAS 49 DEGREES. AT DANVILLE VIRGINIA...THE HIGH TODAY WAS 54 DEGREES...THIS TIES THE Snowflakes in the air?Posted Oct23, 2006 at 12:57 AMWhile it's possible you may see a few snowflakes this morning in the highest elevations, a more widespread threat of very early-season snow enters the picture tonight and early Tuesday. A disturbance moving around the base of the low pressure trough, or the jet stream dipping far to the south over the eastern U.S, could trigger snow showers across much of the area tonight and early Tuesday. The best chance will be in the higher elevations west of I-81 ... some areas near the Virginia-West Virginia line and points west could even get a white ground out of it, especially above 3,000 feet. But don't be surprised to see some flakes fly along the Blue Ridge and even in the Roanoke Valley. This promises to be a fitting start to a cold week ahead that will likely clinch a second straight month of below-normal temperatures for the area. Foliage fest!Posted Oct21, 2006 at 12:13 AMI hope you will get out this weekend and enjoy the fall foliage display in our area. This is by far the prettiest foliage season we've had in at least 4 years. Today looks to be a fall classic in Western Virginia: Bright sunshine and blue skies, highs in the 60s, lows in the 30s and 40s. Winds of changePosted Oct19, 2006 at 09:30 PMFriday morning will probably be a bit gusty in our area. The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has put out a wind advisory for counties along and west of the Blue Ridge, including the Roanoke and New River valleys. Expect some gusts to top 50 mph, especially along the highest ridgetops. This will be the result of a cold front that is triggering showers in the area tonight. It's the first in a series of fronts that will eventually drop temperatures back below freezing at night by the middle part of next week. For the next couple of days, though, expect seasonably cool weather as the fall foliage approaches its peak. Warm weather returnsPosted Oct18, 2006 at 05:21 PMRoanoke and Blacksburg were each 3 degrees off record highs today ... 80 in Roanoke, 77 in Blacksburg. We'll see similar warmth on Thursday, but then a new cold front will begin moving in with a chance of rain on Friday. Much deeper cold air arrives early next week, and the overall pattern could allow for another prolonged colder-than-normal temperature regime through much of the rest of the month. (Click here for the latest climate forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center) Rainy system has an El Nino look to itPosted Oct17, 2006 at 06:29 PMHere is an update on rainfall amounts from the storm system that has moved across the southern U.S. Here is a map showing severe weather reports on Monday. This is the kind of southern stream system that seems like it might have El Nino's fingerprints on it. If the southern branch of the jet stream does get cranking like it does in many El Nino years, we may see many of these soggy storm systems ... or icy/snow storms if they catch some cold air later on. Amounts of rain in our area today (midnight-5 p.m.) include 0.79 inch in Roanoke and 1.18 inch in Blacksburg. A cool last half of October?Posted Oct16, 2006 at 03:45 PMIf today's Climate Prediction Center temperature forecast map is to be believed, it looks like the last half of October will trend cooler than normal. Roanoke's first freezePosted Oct15, 2006 at 11:58 PMSunday morning was the first official freezing temperature of the season in Roanoke, with a low of 32. That's at the airport -- your house elsewhere in the Roanoke Valley may have seen a colder temperature, or gone below freezing on Friday or Saturday. Everybody in the New River Valley and points west has gone below freezing the past few days. For comparison and contrast, here are the first-freeze dates for Roanoke in recent years: For the record ... our coldest, snowiest winter among the years listed above was 2002-03, which was preceded by the latest first-freeze date ... so don't read too much significance into this. Rainy weather on the wayPosted Oct14, 2006 at 11:37 PM
This is the kind of system, forming the Gulf of Mexico and moving northeastward into the Carolinas, that would have us watching closely for snow and ice potential were it about two months later. But it's too early to hold on to that kind of cold, so this will be all rain, though a chilly one with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. This system could be showing the beginning of a more active southern jet stream, which is often a hallmark of an El Nino pattern. Or this system could be a one-time thing that won't be repeated much. We'll just have to wait and see. If in about 8 or 10 weeks we start getting Arctic air shots like last week combining with Gulf of Mexico storm systems like this coming week, it could be an interesting winter. Where did the freeze warning go?Posted Oct13, 2006 at 06:25 PM
The light blue on the map signifies a freeze warning, for areas northeast of Roanoke mainly, where temperatures are expected to drop below freezing for several hours overnight. These areas did not reach freezing on Friday morning, so tonight's freeze will end the growing season there. Roanoke and points south and east are under a frost advisory, as temperatures near freezing, light winds and clear skies could result in some scattered frost. More on current conditions at the National Weather Service at Blacksburg Web site. Buffalo-ed by snowPosted Oct13, 2006 at 05:44 PMBuffalo, New York, gets a lot of snow ... so it's impressive anytime you can say a storm sets snowfall records there, in this case for heaviest snow so early in the season Freeze watches and warningsPosted Oct12, 2006 at 06:04 PM
Click here for a closer view of the map from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg, with dark blue representing a freeze watch, light blue a freeze warning and the middle shade a frost advisory (mostly southern West Virginia and Kentucky). First snowflakes? Maybe notPosted Oct12, 2006 at 01:28 PMWhen the bulk of the Arctic air mass begins arriving late tonight and early Friday, there's a pretty good chance that the first snowflakes of the season will be observed in some parts of Southwest Virginia. It depends on how much moisture is left over for the cold air to squeeze out. We're not talking a lot ... perhaps a slight chance of a dusting on the ground at elevations above 3,500 feet ... but I think there will probably be some snowflakes in the air Friday morning, here and there. If you see snow, let me know. (Email me or comment below) UPDATE 5 P.M. It's looking a lot drier with the arrival of the cold air late tonight and Friday. I still wouldn't rule out a flurry or two in the highest mountains, but the winds will probably switch from northwest to west and southwest too quickly to keep a steady upslope flow to produce more widespread snow showers. Let me know if you see any ... but that may be a "first of the season" for a later date. Grayson severe weatherPosted Oct11, 2006 at 11:18 PMOne particularly intense thunderstorm moved across Grayson County tonight, with a report of 60 mph winds and 3/4 inch hail at Independence, according to the National Weather Service. This was triggered by the strong cold front plowing eastward into warmer, more moist air to the east. We could see some more showers and a few rumbles of thunder overnight and through the day Thursday, before the cold air hits us broadside by Thursday evening. How low will it go by Saturday morning? Freeze potential is looking even more widespread. Cold still on the wayPosted Oct10, 2006 at 06:22 PMI haven't seen fit to change much since my previous post on a shot of cold air -- true Arctic air -- headed our way for late this week, probably arriving in earnest on Friday. Most everyone in Southwest Virginia will drop into the 30s; some folks in the deeper mountain valleys could see several hours in the 20s on Friday night, effectively ending the growing season. The map linked here, from the National Weather Service at Blacksburg, shows average first freeze dates across the area. A first freeze on Friday would actually be later than normal in some of the counties west of Roanoke, but would be right on time through the middle of the area. Early taste of winter on the way?Posted Oct06, 2006 at 07:30 PMThe strong low pressure system that's wrapping up off the coast, swirling some rain and chilly winds back our way, could have been quite the snowstorm had it done this in January. But that's not really what the title of this entry is referring to. 
Short-lived warm spellPosted Oct04, 2006 at 05:45 PM
Record severe weather yearPosted Oct03, 2006 at 02:56 PMThe National Weather Service in Blacksburg reported today that, at least since this particular kind of reporting began 11 years ago, there were more severe weather reports in Blacksburg's county warning area in the past year (313 reports) than there have been in any previous year. For severe weather purposes, the year is defined as Oct. 1-Sept. 30. The relatively short period of record and the improved storm reporting network in recent times certainly are most significant in this record. But it has been a pretty robust year for severe weather, with a number of summer microburst events, hailstorms and wind damage as recently as last Thursday, and three reports of tornadoes. The weather service's statement is shown below. An aftertaste of summerPosted Oct02, 2006 at 05:43 PMWarm, southwest winds blowing downslope off the mountains are going to bring a taste of summer back to Southwest Virginia the next couple of days, with highs expected to reach the mid 80s in Roanoke. Record highs for this time of year are in the upper 80s. This comes after a month of September that averaged 2.6 degrees below normal in average temperature, and more than 4 degrees below normal in average high temperature. But the warmth will be short-lived as another cold front pushes through late in the week. Moisture will be limited, so we may not have a repeat of last week's Thursday thunderstorms. |
About this blog
Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States." .....Advertisement.....
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