...Advertisement...

...Advertisement...

Weather Journal

with Kevin Myatt

Roaring winds

Strong winds are going to be whipped up across our area by the powerful storm, aided by our abruptly rising and widely varied terrain. This map from the National Weather Service on Thursday evening shows expected top wind gusts across the region.

A middle-U.S. mess

Click here for a weather map depicting today's ongoing weather. Can you find any kinds of inclement weather that are NOT happening today.

That will be coming our way on Friday ... expect some very gusty winds, brief heavy rains, maybe some thunder, and then a dramatic end to the recent warmth.

When the Arctic meets the Gulf of Mexico

tempmapsmall1129.png

It's not hard to see on this map of Wednesday high temperatures where the cold front lies. (Click here for a bigger version) Temperatures drop from the 70s to the 30s in a very short distance in Oklahoma and Texas. This collision between cold, dry Arctic air and warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico is helping fire a large storm system that is triggering severe thunderstorms in the region this evening, and will likely produce a large winter storm with several inches of snow in the same general area come Thursday.

Click here for a map of winter weather watches and warnings.

It's headed our way later in the week for an abrupt change in the weather. The potential exists for heavy rain and severe weather on Friday. Will there be snow by late in the weekend? Stay tuned.

Warmth will end spectacularly

The warm spell will be ending late this week (Thursday or Friday) with lots of snow and severe thunderstorms across the nation ... though there's a pretty good chance we won't get either one. A strong low will wind up along a cold front in the middle part of the nation as Arctic air from Canada and warm air from the south collide. In our area, we'll probably see some gusty winds and rain on Thursday night and Friday as the front begins slamming through. Don't be surprised to hear some thunder, though, and don't be surprised to see a few flakes of snow later in the weekend after the front goes by.

A few links for the latest projections on the developing storm:

Latest rainfall forecasts from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

Latest winter weather outlook from Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

Latest severe weather outlook from Storm Prediction Center

Warm days, cold nights

You may have noticed that even though the last couple of days have been unseasonably mild in the afternoon, the mornings have still been cold and frosty. Roanoke's low on Sunday was 32, and it fell to 35 this morning, before rebounding into the upper 60s each day. The atmosphere is extremely stable and dry right now, which allows for quick heating and loss of heating, depending on the sunlight or lack thereof. A more humid atmosphere warms and cools more slowly, as the water vapor absorbs heat more slowly but holds on to it longer. As the week progresses, the atmosphere will slowly moisten, so nighttime lows will gradually moderate as the warmup continues through at least Wednesday.

November will end warm

Our two-month string of averaging below normal temperatures for the month is over. Already more than a degree above normal for the month at Roanoke Regional Airport, every day remaining in November is likely to be several degrees above the normal high temperatures in the low to mid 50s. I wouldn't even rule out temperatures challenging some record highs in the low to mid 70s on a couple of those days, though mid and upper 60s will be the rule.

Next week is likely to be a very dynamic weather week nationally. A strong low pressure system will be poised to wind up in the nation's heartland, causing a blizzard over the northern Rockies and northern Plains, and touching off heavy rain and severe weather in the South. For a few days, this low will do nothing but pump warm air our way, as we enjoy mostly sunny weather. Late in the week, though, we'll pay the piper as the low drags a strong cold front through, and on the heels of rain, wind and storms, temperatures will take an abrupt tumble to start December.

What a snowstorm this could have been

radar1122.gif

If you're a snow lover, today could go down in the annals of "what could have been." For the sake of holiday travel, it's a good thing we didn't get a snowstorm out of this pesky coastal low. But, sitting here with a 39-degree rain tonight, and having seen a bit of sleet and a few slushy near-snowflakes plop down on my windshield returning from Blacksburg today, it's not hard to imagine what could have been. If this storm had pulled in a richer vein of Arctic air, or even just a bit more air from continental Canada, I have no doubt that our Thanksgiving would be white. If this storm had occurred just a few weeks later, the ambient cold air of the winter season would have probably been deep enough to squeeze out wet snow instead of cold rain. Blow this storm up in mid-January with deep Arctic air being pulled down, and fluffy snow is blowing everywhere. This nor'easter certainly goes down as a peculiar weather event, with its flooding rains and strong winds along the coast, a general nuisance. If it is a harbinger of things to come, this could be an interesting winter indeed. If it is one of a kind, snow lovers throughout Southwest Virginia will look on it for months to come and wonder, "What if ..."

Stunning scene over Roanoke

RoaSkyscapeThumb1121.jpg

This is a neat skyscape I just caught over downtown Roanoke, as taken from the roof of The Roanoke Times building. This is actually the back edge of that big coastal low I've been writing about. Mid-level clouds are streaming back to the west, with some precipitation trying to fall out of them, but drying on the way to the surface. The late evening sun was reflecting orange and pink off those clouds. An absolutely stunning scene! Click here for a larger version of the photo.

UPDATE 11/22, 5 P.M>Click here for a similar shot taken by David Gravell on Tuesday evening near Shawsville

Snow photos from Monday

snowtreesthumb.jpg

I took off south on the Blue Ridge Parkway about mid-morning Monday, and started hitting snow showers near the Roanoke-Franklin County line. It snowed on me off and on through the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon, never very hard, but more than a flurry. There was a bit of scattered accumulation at Rocky Knob, a higher-elevation recreation area (about 3,600 feet) on the Parkway in Floyd County. Here are a few photos are linked below:

Snow on the trees (bigger version of inset photo)

Snow on the rocks

Snowflakes in the air, reflected by sunlight, with my dog Cindy at a parkway overlook

Coastal storm

3dayrain1121small.gif

This 3-day projected rain total map (click here for full size) from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows about all you need to know if you're traveling toward the Outer Banks for Thanksgiving. Expect a lot of rain, up to 10 inches over a 3-day period, and a lot of wind and some big waves that will cause beach erosion. A strong low pressure system off the coast is continuing to wrap up, and with its upper level support becoming cut off from the jet stream, the storm will slowly drift northward the next few days. This chilly storm will be worse than any tropical system that hit the U.S. this season.

Parts of South Carolina saw some snow, even briefly heavy snow, this morning as the system began to push its rain shield inland, but for the most part, the cold air isn't deep enough and there isn't enough of a connection to the Arctic for this to become a major winter storm. Most of its effects will slip east of our area, with only a few showers and some chilly north winds spinning around it.

It's an impressive cold-season storm, nonetheless.

Some snow, but not much

Snowflakes were in the air overnight this morning in a lot of areas to the west and southwest of the Roanoke Valley. Temperatures in the valley hovered around 40 degrees, so if anything did make it down this far, it was probably just a few sprinkles. Snowfall amounts of no greater than about an inch have been reported even in the favored upslope snow belts along the Virginia-West Virginia border. So this one played out about like it was expected to.

The next big weather story will likely be the development of a strong low pressure system off the southeast coast that may not go anywhere very fast. It doesn't look like it will be cold enough for winter weather concerns, but could be a travel mess of wind and rain especially if you have plans toward the coast of North Carolina or Virginia. More on this later.

Upslope snow event

SunMonsnow1118.gif

This is looking more and more like a typical upslope snow event, and not a very serious one at that. It appears the bulk of the snow that will fall Sunday night and Monday will occur in those typical western upslope regions as northwest winds blow up the mountainsides and the lift squeezes out the very limited moisture. This map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center targets a sliver from near Bluefield, W.Va., south through the Virginia Coalfields and then south through the Smoky Mountains along the North Carolina-Tennessee border for a slight chance, 10-40 percent, of 4 inches or more of snow. More likely, some areas of eastern West Virginia, far western Virginia along the border and the far southwest part of the state will see 1-3 inches, with flurries in the New River Valley and maybe a few flakes or sprinkles here in the Roanoke Valley.


TuesPrecip1118.gif

A much larger storm winds up off the coast by Monday night into Tuesday. This HPC map shows a bullseye of heavy precipitation on the Outer Banks of North Carolina ... rain, not snow. If it were snow, it would be easily a foot-plus, but with rain, an inch-plus is still significant, especially as strong northeast winds wrap around the developing low. So, as I talked about in today's Weather Journal column, we're too dry, maybe not quite cold enough, and the low pressure systems gets its act together too late for signficant snow in most of Southwest Virginia this time around.

For the latest national snow forecasts, including projected areas of heavy snow, visit the HPC's Winter Weather Page.

Sunday-Monday snow chances

In Weather Journal today, I wrote about the chances of snow in our area for Sunday night and Monday. They're not especially good, but some things are in place that if a little changes here and there, some snow could fall in many parts of the area. This map that ran with the column (click here ... it's a PDF) shows what will be in place and what needs to happen to change things. Personally, I think we're at least 3 weeks away from widespread measurable snow in this area ... but I'll keep watching this, as promised, and let you know if anything changes.

How much rain fell?

The strong storm system that moved through Wednesday and Thursday brought heavy rainfall to our region, generally 1 to 3 inches, with scattered reports of flooding. Below is a list from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg of rainfall amounts in its forecast area, that includes much of Southwest Virginia, southeast West Virginia and northwest North Carolina.

Continue reading "How much rain fell?" »

A rough night

Southwest Virginia had some scattered reports of flooding and wind damage from overnight heavy rain and a few thunderstorms ... but states to our south experienced much more destructive and deadly weather overnight. Click here for story.

Big storm moving in

satsmall1116.jpg

It has that classic comma shape on this satellite image (click here for a bigger version). In fact, it looks a lot this storm back in October. A strong low pressure system, centered over western Tennessee early this evening, is continuing to wrap up and move to the northeast. It's pulling up tons and tons of Gulf of Mexico moisture that will result in heavy rain and some thunderstorms in our area late tonight and early Thursday. States to our south have experienced severe thunderstorms today. On the backside of the storm, signficant snowfall might work as far south as Missouri tonight. Certainly, this is a big-time autumn storm that promises to bring gusty winds and heavy rain to much of western Virginia and surrounding states tonight and Thursday, ending with even a few mountain snow showers Thursday night and Friday.

A few maps to click on:
Watches and warnings for our area, as of early evening.
Projected 24-hour rainfall
National radar, as of early evening

Stay tuned to the latest on the National Weather Service-Blacksburg Web site. You can follow the specfics of this particular storm by clicking here.

Powerhouse storm

A powerful low pressure system is getting ready to wind up in the nation's mid-section that will bring a variety of weather to the nation ... severe weather today in the lower Mississippi River valley, snow for parts of the Rockies today and even as far south and east as the middle Mississippi River valley near St. Louis on Wednesday, and a boat load of rain for us come Wednesday night into Thursday.

When one storm system is doing all of that, you know it has a lot of energy and temperature difference in it.

High winds at Fancy Gap

There are reports of multiple trucks being blown off the road tonight on Interstate 77 at Fancy Gap in Carroll County. The National Weather Service estimates the wind gusts at 60 mph, and has issued a high wind warning for Carroll County. There were pretty gusty winds many other places today after a cold front moved thorugh Saturday night, but nothing on that order. The atmosphere has a lot of energy right now. More topsy-turvy weather is likely the next several days.

Record highs, two days straight

Roanoke's high of 78 on Friday beat the old record of 75 in 1975, and today's high of 79 beat the old record of 77 set in 1985. Blacksburg also set a new record today, hitting 74, topping the old record of 72 in 1975.

A week ago, Roanoke set a record low of 24.

The seesaw continues ... the cold front is on the way tonight with showers and some thunderstorms (maybe a little late for the Virginia Tech game, blowing my call of that game as the "bad weather game of the week" on TimesCast), then colder weather for Sunday. Snow will fly in the highest mountains along the Virginia-West Virginia border and points west.

Up and down it goes, where it stops, nobody knows.

Temperature rollercoaster

We set a record low last weekend ... we could challenge a record high today in Roanoke. The record high for Nov. 10 is 75 set in 1975, and we've got a chance to tie or break that, though I'm guessing we'll fall a degree or two short.

Then, after rain on Saturday in front of an approaching cold front, the bottom falls out again, though not as far as week. Expect blustery winds and chilly weather to return Saturday night and Sunday, just cold enough for a few snow showers in those favored mountain upslope areas.

Cold start to November

Through Tuesday, Roanoke's average temperature for the first week of November is 5.3 degrees below normal.

With a week or two of frequent mild to warm weather likely as the jet stream roars in off the Pacific Ocean, it will be interesting to see if November can become the third month in a row with below normal temperatures in Roanoke. That will probably hinge on what happens beyond this mild spell ... whether it will be reinforced for the Thanksgiving holiday and beyond, or whether cold air will return. Still mixed signals on that.

Tornado kills 9 in Japan

Tornadoes are very rare in Japan, but the one that hit there today was the most deadly on record for the island nation. Click here for story.

Click here for photo purported to be of tornado in Japan.

Rain signals regime change

jetstream1104.jpg

The changing flow of the northern branch of the jet stream

A rainy day is in store today in Southwest Virginia. This rain marks the transition we will be experiencing between cold air of Arctic/Canadian origin from last week, and a renewed push of milder Pacific air that we will be under for the next several days. This rain is coming in on another vigorous system in the southern branch of the jet stream. (Click here for a graphic depicting the northern and southern branches of the jet stream) Meanwhile, the northern branch of the jet stream is shifting north into Canada, blasting the Pacific Northwest and western Canada with heavy precipitation. What it means for us, after the rain, is much warmer weather than we've been having, with temperatures possibly as much above normal late this week as they were below normal late last week.

Record lows for Nov. 4

Roanoke's low of 24 set a new record for Nov. 4, beating the old record of 25 set in 1991.

Lynchburg also set a record, with a low of 21, colder than the previous record of 23 set in 1966. Danville, with a low of 23, tied its record low, also set in 1966.

The frost was so thick in many areas this morning, it looked like a light snowfall.

The warmup is coming. I promise. Give it a few days.

A typical early January day

Roanoke's high today was 46, some 16 degrees below normal for Nov. 3, and the low was 30, 10 degrees below normal. Blacksburg's high of 41 was 18 degrees below normal and the low of 24 was 10 degrees below normal.

Compare these readings to the normal for the first week of January, when the temperature spread averages 45/27 at Roanoke, and 41/21 at Blacksburg.

Another extreme feature of today's weather was how dry it is. The 5 p.m. dew point at Roanoke is 9 degrees, making the humidity 24 percent. Click here for latest hourly observations at Roanoke Regional Airport.

In the freezer

If for some reason you have any tender vegetation outside after all the cold nights of October, get it in now. The next three or four nights will see temperatures drop well into the 20s over most of Southwest Virginia, and I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see an 18 or a 19, maybe even a 15 or 16, from some remote mountain location.

That warmup is coming, but it'll take a few days.

Rain moving in

The next cold front is shoving some pretty heavy showers toward our area tonight. (Click here for current National Weather Service radar). Behind this comes a few days of cold, crisp, clear air in this extremely gorgeous fall season. Then, the warm air I wrote about below ... which in a strange way, might help the trees hold their colors for a longer time than usual.

Red states

610temp1101small.gif

Never mind the election ... most of the continental United States is colored red in the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day forecast for the likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures. The weather pattern that has brought us cooler than normal weather through most of September and October, with one more stretch of that this week, is about to break down entirely. The core of coldest air will relocate from near Hudson Bay west to the west coast of Canada up into Alaska, and high pressure will build over much of the U.S. This is likely to bring above normal temperatures until about mid-month. (Click here to look at the 6-10-day forecast temperature map)

We'll have to see then whether the cold air can re-establish itself as we approach Thanksgiving.

Search


Weather bulletins

Recent comments

  • Power just went out in the Stoneledge area right on the Roanoke/Botetourt county line.more - Brandon R.
  • We had a pretty strong storm blow through early this afternoon that dropped hail 3 ...more - Other John
  • 1:14pm 6/22 We are getting a pretty heavy t-storm. Nickel sized hail in Radford/Christiansburg area ...more - Nathan
  • I'm greatful for chasers such as yourselves who actually got good video of this tornado ...more - CraigM
  • Thankfully that storm fizzled out as it crossed into Pulaski County, but we did get ...more - Other John

Kevin Myatt's weather columns

About this blog

Mug of Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States."

E-mail Kevin

RSS feed

.....Advertisement.....