A rainy start to '07Posted Dec31, 2006 at 12:05 AMIt's going to rain New Year's Eve. It's going to rain New Year's Day. And then by the end of next week, it's going to rain again ... all with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. The storm that caused the snowstorm in the Rockies will be dragging a lot of Gulf of Mexico moisture across us the next couple of days, and then a new storm will do much the same at the end of the week. It looks a lot like an El Nino pattern should look like. The question is how much longer the mild weather can hang on, or if the cold weather will make a comeback. It will get cold this winter ... and when it does, the wet pattern could pose a big ice/snow risk. I think we're still at least 10 days off from ANY threat of that, and there's really nothing out there that looks promising/threatening (depending on your perspective on winter weather). National Weather Service's Top 5 events of 2006Posted Dec30, 2006 at 05:24 PMI picked my Top 10 area weather events of 2006 today. At the same time, the National Weather Service was picking its Top 5 events, and our top two match. The weather service's picks for No. 3 and No. 4, the Bull Mountain fire and Pittsylvania County tornadoes, occurred outside The Roanoke Times' readership area, so I didn't include those. The National Weather Service at Blacksburg covers not only much of Southwest and Southside Virginia, but also parts of southeast West Virgnia and northwest North Carolina. I also did not include the weather service's No. 5, April 7 severe weather, but you could argue I should have with damage and and an injury at Buchanan. If you want snow ... go to ColoradoPosted Dec27, 2006 at 11:34 PM
New Year's travel won't be any better than Christmas travel ... it seems likely that Denver's airport will get backed up again. The skiing in the Colorado Rockies, though, will be superb. So winter is not missing everybody. Give it another month or two, and this whole thing may flip around where Denver is basking while the eastern U.S. is shivering and shoveling. But it will be at least that long. Don't look for any big winter storm threats or prolonged cold outbreaks in our area until at least mid-January. Brief cooldowns and small winter weather threats, maybe. But for now, the real action is to our west.
Christmas Day tornadoesPosted Dec27, 2006 at 12:14 PMIn 1982, my family and I spent a Christmas Eve night in northeastern Arkansas hiding out in the bathroom as tornado sirens blared and numerous tornadoes descended on the state. The closest one got to our house was 10 miles, but it made for a frightening night. Florida experienced at least 4 Christmas Day tornadoes with widespread damage. Here is an article from the Tampa Tribune on the weather factors leading to the destruction. No Arctic air in sightPosted Dec26, 2006 at 09:30 AMEven in West Virginia, the snow potential looks less potent than it did earlier this week ... maybe 3-5 inches in some of the highest mountains near Snowshoe and Canaan Valley. The lack of true Arctic air and the low moving a bit farther west than initially expected will keep the upslope effects to a minimum there. Here, it will eventually turn breezy and cooler, but not particularly cold. There is no wholesale change in sight to this generally mild pattern. It appears to be many days, if not weeks, before true Arctic air will be able to crash through. If it were colder ... a Yuletide ice storm?Posted Dec25, 2006 at 03:29 PMThere are those who would say that we are missing a nice Christmas snowfall with all this moisture today. Actually, what we are missing with the current weather pattern is a major Christmas ice storm. Had colder air been in place today with all this warm, moist air overrunning it aloft, freezing rain and sleet would have been more dominant than snow. So, though it's a chilly, dreary Christmas, we should all be thankful we don't have power outages to contend with. West Virginia's mountains are still in line for a good douse of snow over the next couple of days as the winds turn to the west and northwest and the upslope flow begins. It probably won't make it over the mountains much to us, as the low appears to be taking a farther west track than earlier prognostications. Cold, rain today will give way to a partly cloudy but windy day on Tuesday with a few rain showers in the Roanoke Valley, mixed with more snow the farther west and higher in elevation you go. Could it snow a little for Christmas?Posted Dec24, 2006 at 03:00 PMYes, Virginia, there is a chance of a little snow for Christmas ... but not much. Yes, West Virginia, there is a good chance of a LOT of snow AFTER Christmas. Mostly, it will be a cold wet Christmas as warm air aloft overtakes cold air at the surface. At the onset of the precipitation late tonight or early Chirstmas Day, there may be enough dry air that the initial precipitation will evaporate, chilling the atmosphere to the point that some sleet or even snow could make it to the surface late tonight or early Christmas before the atmosphere warms entirely for rain. By Christmas night, the strong low causing this bout of rain will wrap up tightly as it passes through. Strong winds behind the storm will sweep in cold air, changing the rain to snow from west to east. Late Christmas night and early Tuesday, some of that snow could sneak into the New River and Roanoke valleys. The mountains of West Virginia look to get clocked by heavy upslope snows much of Tuesday and into Wednesday. I would not be surprised to see a few 10-inch-plus totals, especially in the mountains near Snowshoe and Canaan Valley. Even as close as Greenbrier County, the higher mountains could get 6 inches plus. Everybody is likely to see very gusty winds by late Christmas night and into Tuesday, gusting over 50 mph in many locations. One rainy day gone, another to comePosted Dec23, 2006 at 12:49 PMWe came out of Friday with .87 inch of rain in Roanoke and no real flooding problems anywhere. The rain came slowly and steadily for the most part and didn't cause bad runoff. It looks like another rain system will be headed our way on Christmas, and there could be a threat of heavy rain. Any wintry precipitation at this point would be limited to brief freezing rain or sleet at the start and maybe a few snow showers at the end. I think slowly and surely, the pattern is evolving into a more wintry one, but with so much mild air in place there's probably a few more inches of rain between now and first snowfall. Late week toward New Year's bears some watching, but at this point, I'm thinking another cold rain. Flood watch for FridayPosted Dec21, 2006 at 04:27 PMA flood watch is in effect on Friday for parts of Southwest Virginia generally along the Blue Ridge from Roanoke southwestward, including both the Roanoke and New River Valleys. Expect 1.5 to 3 inches of rain. Click here for the latest from the National Weather Service.
Lots of wet ... but a chance of white?Posted Dec20, 2006 at 07:19 PM
I will hold out one carrot of hope for all the snow lovers. A low pressure system is expected to form in the Gulf late this weekend and move northeast. If the amount of cold air available were anywhere close to what is typical, this would be a major winter storm threat. It's NOT. Not by a long shot. But we are in late December, so there is some chance that this low might draw on enough cold air high in the atmosphere, transporting it to the surface with the precipitation, or even pull down enough marginally cold air from Canada for some snow Christmas afternoon and Christmas night. The National Weather Service in Blacksburg currently gives us a 40 percent chance of snow on Monday night, Roanoke's highest snow probability so far this season. There are many, many problems with this scenario beginning with the lack of cold air. The track of the low may also end up being too far west, also, keeping us on the mild side of the low. Every now and then, one of these marginal storms unloads a heavy dump of wet snow in a narrow band, so it's certainly worth keeping an eye on. Numerous computer models have been showing some version of this storm, with slightly varied strength and movement, over several computer runs for a few days now. For Roanoke, at this point, I would expect yet more rain on Christmas with maybe a tiny bit of sleet or snow at the end. Higher elevations to our west stand a better chance of eeking a white Christmas out of a dismal pattern for winter weather. A chilly, wet Christmas will please almost no one. Big snowstorm in the PlainsPosted Dec20, 2006 at 04:30 PM
For our area, the position of this large storm to the west and northwest of us will only serve to reinforce mild air, as south and southwest winds pulled into the counterclockwise rotating storm pull in warmer air from the subtropics and the Gulf of Mexico. To get us back into anything resembling a winter weather pattern, it's going to take major changes in the overall weather pattern that just don't seem to be anywhere on the horizon, at least through the remaining days of 2006, Click here for the latest Associated Press report on the blizzard Latest winter weather forecasts from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center More about 2006 recordsPosted Dec20, 2006 at 10:11 AMIn today's Weather Journal column, I discuss Roanoke's temperature records for 2006, that included 21 records for warmest high or low for a given date and only six records for coldest high or low for a given date. An even more dramatic example of 2006 temperature records is Bluefield, W.Va. In that city at the southern tip of West Virginia, there were 45 warm temperature records in 2006 and only three cool temperature records. Those 45 include 25 record high temperatures and 20 record "high minimums," or the warmest low for a given date. The three include two low maximums, or the coldest high recorded for a given date, and just one record low, set a couple of weeks ago on Dec. 8.
Another tropical storm identifiedPosted Dec18, 2006 at 11:24 PMThe National Hurricane Center has just identified a new tropical storm ... that occurred on July 17-18. In reviewing satellite and other data from those days, the hurricane center has determined that a tropical storm briefly developed off the Northeast U.S. coast and moved toward Nova Scotia. This runs the 2006 Atlantic tropical season to a total of 10 systems that achieved at least tropical storm status. Click here for the full report on the unnamed tropical storm from the National Hurricane Center. As expected, a record highPosted Dec18, 2006 at 11:09 PMRoanoke's high of 73 clobbered the old record for Dec. 18 of 68 from 1990. Blacksburg came up short, with a high of 66, compared to the record of 70 from 1984. Record high likely today in RoanokePosted Dec18, 2006 at 10:51 AMIt's very odd that Blacksburg's record high for Dec. 18 is actually higher than Roanoke's. Blacksburg's record high for the day is 70, set in 1984; Roanoke's is 68, dating to 1990. In Roanoke, we'll probably go above 68 today for a new record. It's less likely that Blacksburg will top 70. Lynchburg's record is 79 set in 1924. That will almost certainly not be challenged. Lynchburg's period of record dates to the early part of the century, while Roanoke's only goes back to 1948. It does show that there were some very warm late fall/early winter days in Virginia's past. The temperatures will cool off back to close to what is normal ... upper 40s/low 50s in the day, upper 20s/low 30s at night ... for most of the rest of the week. Still no frigid Arctic air in sight. December continues on the mild sidePosted Dec16, 2006 at 09:46 PM
As I've noted in today's Weather Journal column and in a blog entry from Friday, there are subtle signals of change that could trigger a pattern shift in the next several days. But the warmth will try to hang on stubbornly, powered in part by strong high pressure over the Atlantic to the southeast of the U.S. When this feature holds firm, it easily deflects winter's advances. It will have to be eroded or knocked down before we have any serious winter storms or Arctic air masses. Most of the coldest Arctic air is banked up in a region from the north pole southward across the Bering sea into far eastern Russia, eastern China and Japan. The air around most of the other northern latitudes is average to mild to downright warm, relative to normal, like Europe has been. This will be an active week across the U.S., once again focused on the central states, where heavy rain, heavy snow and severe storms will all be possible. But as for any large-scale invasions of Arctic air or big East Coast winter storms, the coast looks to be clear for several days at least.
Mayhem in the Pacific NorthwestPosted Dec16, 2006 at 05:54 PMA powerful Pacific storm system has brought high winds to much of the Pacific Northwest region, with lots of tree and power-line damage. (Click here for story) The weather has continued to hamper the search for three missing hikers on Mount Hood. As I discussed in today's Weather Journal column, storminess in the Pacific Northwest is not like most El Nino winters. The dominoes start to fall?Posted Dec15, 2006 at 11:14 AMSome excerpts from this morning's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center long-range forecast discussion portend some changes in our nation's weather regime. Quoting the HPC directly, using their system of abbreviations: "THE RECENT SERIES OF STRONG NERN PAC STORMS AFFECTING THE PAC NW Translation: The jet stream pattern that has continued to drive big storms into the Pacific Northwest, and then kept the jet stream far to the north bringing mild air to much of the nation, will be shifting. "MORE TROFFING OVER ERN NOAM" means "more troughing over eastern North America" .... in other words, colder weather. There is also this gem: SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE UNDER THE MID LEVEL CENTER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEV OF THE SRN APPLCHNS FRI." The "SRN APPLCHNS" ... the "Southern Appalachians" ... is our area generally. So a week from today, if this pans out (a big "if" so far out), we may be talking about a snow threat, at least for the higher elevations. Lots of time to consider that. Enjoy the warm sunshine until then. It's late November all over againPosted Dec13, 2006 at 05:37 PMWe're in another warm spell, and it looks a whole lot like the one that lasted through the last couple of weeks of November, peaking with record highs on Dec. 1 before collapsing into a rather sharp Arctic outbreak that ultimately brought some record lows to the area. A broad southwest flow aloft will continue to bring mild Pacific systems through for at least the next week, and any cold fronts will be of Pacific origin, bringing brief cooldowns rather than frigid weather. According to the Climate Prediction Center, much above normal temperatures appear likely into next week. Don't write off winter yet. On the meteorological calendar, it's only two weeks old. On the astronomical calendar, it hasn't even begun yet. Again, no record in RoanokePosted Dec09, 2006 at 05:33 PMRoanoke bottomed out at 20 for the second straight night. Danville set a new record with a low of 15, and Lynchburg and Blacksburg each fell to 14. The Roanoke Valley, or at least the airport, often seems to be in a strange little heat island like this. Record lows won't be an issue for many, many more days, if not weeks. We're headed back into a pattern very similar to what we had in late November, with a southwest flow high in the atmosphere. This pattern might carry us all the way to Christmas, or even beyond. Patience, warmth wishers ... it's comingPosted Dec08, 2006 at 05:58 PM
December is a polar bear for the moment, but it will probably be remembered as a teddy bear before it's over. Some records, but not in RoanokePosted Dec08, 2006 at 01:06 PMBluefield, W.Va., at 9 degrees and Lynchburg at 12 degrees each set record lows this morning, breaking the previous Dec. 8 records of 10 and 15, respectively, set in 1977. Roanoke's temperature, which was 21 at midnight, stalled at 20 this morning. The previous record was 14. The Dec. 9 record is 15. I'm thinking we again come up a few degrees warm for that. Some got more snow than expectedPosted Dec07, 2006 at 11:35 PM
Snow showers will linger in the mountain regions along the Virginia-West Virginia border overnight and well into Friday, with some locations in eastern West Virginia picking up as much as 5 inches. The big story tonight and Friday night will be the cold, with temperatures ranging from 10-20 across the area on Friday night. With at least a little snow cover now laid down, I wouldn't be surprised to see some single-digit lows in the mountain valleys, possibly including the Blacksburg area, once the winds calm down and the sky clears on Friday night. Snow moving in this afternoonPosted Dec07, 2006 at 04:33 PMI've received a few reports from the New River Valley of some heavier snow squalls moving through ... with gusty winds whipping the snow and some light accumulation. A few flurries are now occurring in the Roanoke Valley. The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement (below) suggesting some of these snow squalls could move east into the Roanoke and Bedford areas earlier this evening, reducing visibilities and possibly causing some brief, light accumulation. Record warmth to record cold in a week?Posted Dec07, 2006 at 12:39 PMIt could happen. Current forecasts are for lows in the mid teens in the Roanoke Valley by Saturday morning ... Roanoke's record low for Dec. 9 is 15 set in 1992. Recall that we were basking in a record high of 77 last Friday. The Dec. 8 record low of 14 was set in 1995. Friday morning's low probably will not challenge that, though it will quite possibly be in the upper teens. Blacksburg is usually colder than Roanoke, but don't expect to beat any records there. The record lows for Dec. 8 and Dec. 9 are 2 and 1, respectively, set in 1995. It usually takes snow cover and clear skies to get that cold. Tornado hits London, England -- 6 injuredPosted Dec07, 2006 at 12:35 PMNeedless to say, this is bizarre. Click here for AP news article. 3-5 inches of snow not far awayPosted Dec07, 2006 at 11:51 AMThe National Weather Service is forecasting 3-5 inches of snow, with locally heavier amounts, for the areas of eastern West Virginia right across the state line that typically get the best upslope snow when Arctic winds howl from the northwest. A new Arctic cold front, the last in this current series, is moving through today. For Virginia, expect perhaps 1-2 inches in the highest elevations along the border ... places such as Mountain Lake in Giles County and Potts Mountain in Craig County ... but mainly just snow showers with little or no accumulation elsewhere tonight and Friday morning. Upslope snows, dropping temperaturesPosted Dec06, 2006 at 07:37 PM
Cold but dry this weekPosted Dec03, 2006 at 10:04 PMIt certainly "looked like snow" today ... a gray overcast, cold day. Radar did in fact pick up some precipitation falling from those clouds for a while today, but it was light and evaporated quickly in the dry air closer to the surface. This is called "virga" and is a common phenomenon in our winters. So just because you see green over your location on radar doesn't mean you'll see flakes, pellets or raindrops. This looks like a cold, dry week with temperatures below normal. It will be plenty sunny most days and the skies will be blue, but it won't warm up much, in the 40s most days with 20s at night. There are mixed signals about whether or not there will be any kind of precipitation event toward next weekend. Hopefully, we can sort that out some as the week goes along. It seems likely that we'll move to a milder weather pattern for the second week of December. It's fairly common to get a significant storm system to develop near or during a pattern shift. We'll see. Mackerel skies, but nothing fishy is upPosted Dec02, 2006 at 05:42 PM
Altocumulus clouds create a "mackerel sky" Links to the photos are below: Altocumulus clouds form rows in the sky over downtown Roanoke Late weekend coastal storm?Posted Dec02, 2006 at 12:27 AM
That said, it's important to keep an eye on things for possible surprises, and this coming week will offer the season's first solid week of the kind of cold -- not frigid, but certainly winterlike -- that could support ice and snow. The first thing to keep an eye on is the potential development of a coastal low Sunday and Monday. I've included a frame from the GFS model run (click here for larger version of inset frame) depicting the development of such a system (the broad black-line circle inside a blob of green representing precipitation) just off the East Coast in the Sunday overnight-early Monday morning period. As you can see, the model is depicting this storm to be too far east of us ... and mostly rain along the Virginia and Carolinas coast. (The blue-dotted lines very roughty depict where the thickness of cold air is projected to be about right for snow, and as you can see, our part of Virginia is near where the red dotted lines give way to the blue ones). Several computer model runs have handled this storm the same way, as atmospheric energy approaching from the west encounters dry air over us and kicks this storm up too late. But I also remember what the models were showing on a coastal storm just before Thanksgiving ... and then what we ended up with. At first projected to miss most of the coastal storm, we ended up getting a nice slug of rain as it developed and moved farther west than expected. So keeping that in mind in our very recent past, this is still worth keeping an eye on ... though this low probably won't be nearly as strong as that one was, won't be subject to the same jet stream situation in becoming "cut off," and even if it does something surprising, we'll still be close to the rain-snow fence, or the snow-dry air fence, this far west. I expect nothing. Midwest winter storm was rough, but ...Posted Dec01, 2006 at 10:50 PM
The weather was even more troublesome in other parts of the world ... such as the typhoon-induced mudslides of volcanic ash in the Phillippines and continual heavy rains causing severe flooding in East Africa. |
