Threat of a killing freeze?Posted Mar31, 2007 at 07:02 PM
The Climate Prediction Center is also warning about threat of a killing frost over a wide area of the central and eastern United States. Click here for larger version of inset map. Tornado photos/video from March 28 outbreakPosted Mar31, 2007 at 06:52 PMStorm chasers were out in full force for Wednesday's massive tornado outbreak in the High Plains. Some of the most enthralling footage is from the Web site of KOTV Channel 6 in Tulsa (there may be a TV promo before the chase footage begins) as a pair of chasers literally do just that ... chase behind a tornado for miles. Additional still photos and video from some storm chasers -- a very small sample of what is available, just a few I was able to pull off the Web in a few minutes -- are linked below:
That cooldown is still comingPosted Mar30, 2007 at 06:01 PM
A look back at a stormy WednesdayPosted Mar29, 2007 at 10:12 AMAs we get a clammy day to break up the recent unseasonable warmth, let's take a look back at a very stormy Wednesday locally and, moreso, nationally. 
Meanwhile, a deadly outbreak of tornadoes occurred in the western Plains. This map from the Storm Prediction Center depicts severe weather reports on Wednesday ... look particularly at the red dots, signifying tornado reports, lined up from Texas to Nebraska. Click here for the Associated Press report on Wednesday's tornadoes. My first storm chase of 2007Posted Mar28, 2007 at 07:06 PM
Some of you got a little more rain and hail than you bargained for ... others are wondering what the fuss was all about. But a few crackles of thunder in the distance should have let everyone know that, without a doubt, spring is upon us, and many more months of warmth, humidity and occasional days of thunder are ahead. If you have photos from today's storms -- either as they were happening or the aftermath -- please feel free to send them to me at the email address linked here. Hail reportsPosted Mar28, 2007 at 05:24 PMSeveral locations in Southwest Virginia have reported hail larger than 3/4 inch this afternoon, which is one criterion that qualifies a thunderstorm as severe. Below (click on "Continued" line in full blog mode) is a list from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg, as of 5 p.m., of several reports of large hail. Severe thunderstorm watch south of RoanokePosted Mar28, 2007 at 03:50 PMA severe thunderstorm watch has been issued until 10 p.m. for most of Southwest and Southside Virginia to the south of Roanoke.(Click here for map and more information)The New River Valley is included in the northern edge of this watch, but the Roanoke Valley is just north. A severe thunderstorm watch means conditions are favorable for the development of thunderstorms with 3/4 inch or larger hail and 58 mph or greater winds. Map of current watches and warnings in National Weather Service-Blacksburg forecast area Some storms starting to popPosted Mar28, 2007 at 02:02 PMThe Storm Prediction Center is noting a potential for hail and gusty winds with thunderstorms now developing in our region, but does not expect to issue a watch at this time. Click here for more information. Latest National Weather Service radar Latest severe weather information from National Weather Service at Blacksburg Slight risk of severe weather in Southwest VirginiaPosted Mar28, 2007 at 09:37 AMMost of Southwest and Southside Virginia south of Roanoke is under a slight risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening, according to the Storm Prediction Center. According to the SPC, there is a 15 percent chance of severe-level hail (3/4 inch or larger) occurring within 25 miles of any given location in the risk area, a 5 percent chance of severe-level wind (58 mph or greater) and a 2 percent chance of tornadoes. Thunderstorm threat this afternoon and eveningPosted Mar28, 2007 at 12:32 AMWith an abundance of early spring heat, increasing moisture, an upper-level disturbance approaching from the west and a cold front attempting to push southward, the squeeze will be on us this afternoon for the potential of the biggest thunderstorms we've seen in months. Probably, we're talking mostly some lightning strokes, a few rumbles and some locally heavy rain, but hail and high winds cannot be ruled out. We'll just have to see if things fall in place for a threat of severe thunderstorms today, and later, this weekend when the bulk of the coming cooler air slams into the balmy air mass that's taken up residence here for several days. Another "hot" dayPosted Mar27, 2007 at 12:13 PMThe morning low in Roanoke of 63 was one degree warmer than our average high temperature for this this part of March. It also set a record for the warmest low on the date, by 4 degrees over the 59 set 3 years ago. Blacksburg also set a record for warmest March 27 low at 51, a degree warmer than the 50 of 1959. Now 78 degrees at noon in Roanoke ... I am wondering if we can give today's lofty record of 84 in 1998 a run for its money. You can follow the hourly temperature at Roanoke Regional Airport here to see if we make it. UPDATE 6:18 PM: Roanoke's high today was 83 ... missing the record by a single degree. The records keep on comingPosted Mar26, 2007 at 03:50 PMSomething I noted on Friday, that temperatures would back off a little over the weekend, didn't really come to pass. Instead, several records were set in Southwest Virginia on Saturday and Sunday. Three for Roanoke and Blacksburg are listed below: * Roanoke's high of 82 on Saturday broke the previous record for March 24 of 78 set in 1994. Ronaoke's March average temperature through Sunday is 51.1 degrees. With a warm week ahead, the month's average temperature appears likely to rank among the top 10 or so warm Marches on record ...the warmest March on record, 52.5 degrees in 1977 (coming after a very cold winter), is not out of range. March appears as if it will continue the pattern dating back to last July where each month ranks among the warmest or coldest few on record. April still looks to start cold. Next weekend's April fool's jokePosted Mar24, 2007 at 06:13 PM
But to get from the almost-summerlike weather we've been having to a touch of April chill, we will probably have to go through a round of rain and potential thunderstorms. It looks like a very stormy week in the Great Plains -- destructive tornadoes ripped through parts of New Mexico and west Texas on Friday night. When the Arctic air makes it move, it will slam into warm, moist air in the nation's mid-section, and with a lot of strong winds blowing different directions high in the atmosphere, the stage will be set for widespread severe weather. I would not rule out the possibility of strong thunderstorms later this week in our area. It looks like a very active weather week ahead as summer and winter wrestle once again. That's what late March and early April is often about. In the meantime, enjoy the mild to warm week ahead. Record high temperature set for March 23Posted Mar23, 2007 at 06:19 PMRoanoke's high did more than challenge 80 ... it blasted past it. The high of 82 degrees set a new record for the date. The arrival of a weak cold front, possibly kicking up some showers and thunderstorms, will take the edge off the warm weather during the next couple of days. Most of the next week looks to have highs in the 60s rather than the 70s and 80s. Challenging 80 todayPosted Mar23, 2007 at 10:45 AMRoanoke's record high for March 23 is 80 degrees, set in 1994. We have a good chance of hitting that mark or topping it today, as temperatures should at least make the upper 70s. We hit 79 a couple of days earlier this month, but haven't hit 80 since Oct. 5. Spring outlookPosted Mar21, 2007 at 06:20 PMThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its annual spring forecast about a week ago. Click here for a look. One chilly dayPosted Mar21, 2007 at 09:35 AMThe long-term warmup is still on ... but it won't feel like it today. Northeast winds behind a cold front that passed through are banking cooler air against the mountains, the familiar cold-air damming setup we get. So today, temperatures will hang in the 40s today. Normal highs for this time of year are near 60. But a warm front moves through on Thursday, and warm weather will move in behind it, stretching through the weekend into next week. Spring-loaded temperaturesPosted Mar20, 2007 at 12:40 AMMonday was an interesting day with our temperatures. In Roanoke, we started at a chilly 24, some 13 degrees below normal, before valuting to a high of 62, 3 degrees above normal. Blacksburg made a similar jump, from a low of 18 to a high of 55. Milder air is taking our weather back over, for the foreseeable future. There will be a little up and down bounce, but frosty weather doesn't look likely between now and month's end. It doesn't get much redder than thisPosted Mar19, 2007 at 10:54 AMI don't recall ever seeing the continental United States painted as red as it is on the Climate Prediction Center 6-10-day temperature forecast map. The map depicts a 60-70 precent chance of above normal temperatures across almost all of the contiguous 48 states, the only exceptions being far south Florida and Texas where there is only a lowly 40 percent chance of above normal temperatures. The balance can be found in Alaska, where below normal temperatures are expected. Chill won't lastPosted Mar16, 2007 at 11:59 PMIt may be chilly on this St. Patrick's Day ... but it won't last long. This 6-10 temperature forecast map from the Climate Prediction Center has lots of red on it in the continental U.S, signalling warmer than normal temperatures, targeted on the Ohio Valley just to our west. Snow is closer than you may thinkPosted Mar16, 2007 at 03:55 PMSnow has been working its way south through the Shenandoah Valley, as far south as the Staunton area. It might work into Lexington soon, if it hasn't already. If you're traveling north on I-81 this afternoon and evening, be aware. Up to 4 inches has fallen around Winchester in the northern tip of the state. The rain is likely to wrap up here before enough colder air arrives for much snow in the Roanoke and New River valleys. If this storm had hit a month ago today during that cold spell, we'd be shoveling for the next month. Weather is all about timing. Wintry precipitation already happening for somePosted Mar16, 2007 at 09:46 AMThe airport near Hot Springs in Bath County -- on a ridgetop at more than 3,700 feet --has been reporting snow off and on since the early morning hours. Click here for weather conditions at Hot Springs Please comment on one of my blog entries or email me if you observe any wintry precipitation falling, notice some icing, or, conversely, any significant flooding in your area. Flood watch for all, freezing rain advisory for a fewPosted Mar16, 2007 at 09:40 AMAll of Southwest Virginia remains under a flood watch until 4 p.m. today, as steady to occasionally heavy rain will dump 2 to 3 inches in many areas. A freezing rain advisory is in effect for elevations above 2500 feet in Botetourt, Rockbridge, Bedford, Alleghany and Bath counties. Light icing is expected to develop in the higher elevations as temperatures drop to freezing or below during the day. Click here for the latest from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg. Some wintry intrigue, believe it or not ...Posted Mar15, 2007 at 07:19 PM
Which brings this up: Roanoke's official National Weather Service forecast reads as follows: "FRIDAY...RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND FREEZING RAIN AT ELEVATIONS OVER 3000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON." The translation is that some of the higher mountain areas along the Blue Ridge Parkway, Catawba Mountain, Bent Mountain, Poor Mountain, etc. might see some ice develop during the day on Friday as colder temperatures are pulled southward by the developing low. Hard to believe after a day in the 70s, but quite believable with this strength of a low pressure system. This map from HPC puts our region in a slight risk of significant ice on Friday ... though I would say it's mostly intended for higher elevations, not here in the depth of the Roanoke Valley. The farther north you go, the lower in elevation the ice might get. You don't have to go far north of us ... Winchester area, on up into Pennsylvania ... to hit winter storm watches for heavy amounts of ice and snow. Much of inland New England is likely to be pummeled by one of the worst snowstorms of the season. Some of Maine's coast is expecting heavy snow, followed by ice and 60 mph wind gusts. Once again, we're likely going to barely miss a large winter storm in this area, as impossible as that may seem after such a warm week. It bears some caution, just in case the cold air is pulled in faster than expected, but at this point, it looks like a long soaking rain ... which is not entirely a bad thing, considering how dry things have become. We won't be worrying about brush fires for at least a few days. Flood watch for all of Southwest VirginiaPosted Mar15, 2007 at 04:31 PMThe National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for all of Southwest Virginia on Friday, as heavy rain, dumping 2 to 3 inches, is expected to move into the area. Click here for the latest from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg. A pre-spring deluge on the wayPosted Mar14, 2007 at 10:43 PM
Considering we're a few inches below normal in rainfall, we could use some of this rain. The relative dryness means it will take a whole lot of rain to get much flooding going. Cold air floods in behind the front late Friday, so much that the mountains could see some snow before the precipitation leaves. A cold weekend is in store. Sorry, warmth lovers. Not quite 80, but darn closePosted Mar14, 2007 at 05:20 PMRoanoke hit 79 for the second straight day. The record high for today was 86 in 1990, so that wasn't challenged. Still, this is the warmest it has been since Oct. 4. Blacksburg set a new record high for the date with a high of 77, topping the 76 recorded in 1990. Danville did top 80 today, with a high of 81. Roanoke's record low for this date, of 16, dates to 1993 -- when the infamous Superstorm pummeled all of Virginia with snow measured in feet. A much different scene today. A jolt of cold on the wayPosted Mar14, 2007 at 09:51 AMSorry to break this to all the folks hoping the recent warm weather will hang on to the weekend, but it won't. The jet stream is getting wavy enough to allow not only this warmup, but a sharp cold front behind it. This will mark a return to highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s by Saturday. Before then, the collision of warm and cold will bring some rain and maybe some rumbles of thunder. Can't rule out a few snowflakes once the cold air arrives, but it looks now as if the most of the moisture gets out of the way before the cold sets in. A gradual warmup is likely on tap for next week. All quiet on the Eastern frontPosted Mar12, 2007 at 11:15 AMI haven't posted a new entry on the blog for a few days because the weather scene is extremely quiet right now ... looks like a long period of mild, mostly calm weather ahead. A few showers may occur by mid-week, with a slight cooldown behind that. We're firmly in this zonal pattern where the jet stream flow is mostly just west to east rather than dipping far north and south for sharp warmups and cooldowns. We'll see how long we can drift on this placid stream before the rapids bounce us around again, as they almost inevitably do in spring. Let's just say it: Winter is overPosted Mar07, 2007 at 04:50 PM
So I probably won't be using the "Winter weather" category much more between now and the fall, unless I'm posting about something happening somewhere else. But this winter -- warm early, cold late, with a total of 3.9 inches of snow in Roanoke -- looks to be in the history books. Yet another Alberta clipper slips our wayPosted Mar06, 2007 at 09:56 AMWe've had lots of these systems this year ... and except for the snow on Feb. 6, most have done just what they usually do, dump some light snow in the higher elevations to the west and less in the lower elevations and spots east of I-81. Another low pressure will dive southeastward overnight into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be marginal, so a rain/snow mix will be the most likely result ... more rain in the lower elevations, snow in the higher elevations. Still, a few areas could get an inch or two of wet snow out of this ... sort of like Sunday morning's system did in a few areas. Something to keep an eye on. A touch of winter returnsPosted Mar03, 2007 at 05:22 PMA strong cold front is bringing another short but sharp taste of winter over the next couple of days, with gusty winds, snow showers, lows in the 20s and highs struggling to make 40. The mountains over in West Virginia could get 1-3 inches, maybe even more up toward Snowshoe and Canaan Valley (map linked here). Winter isn't going to hang on long this time, as temperatures gradually warm through the week. There is some potential that banking Arctic air high in the northern latitudes -- Alaska and western Canada look to be colder than normal as we warm up the next 7-10 days -- could spill southward again later this month. So I'm not quite willing to declare the absolute end of winter just yet. But with each passing day, it will become harder and harder for cold air to be intense or sustained enough for much in the way of winter precipitation. A chilly, rainy day in late March doesn't really qualify as winter, now does it? |
