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Weather Journal

with Kevin Myatt

Hail reports this afternoon

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A thunderstorm cloud towers in the sky southeast of Roanoke at 6:30 p.m. This storm carried a severe thunderstorm warning for Franklin County. Wind damage was reported in Rocky Mount about the time of this photo.

Hail of 3/4 to 1 inch has been reported in some parts of Blacksburg this afternoon, according to the National Weather Service, as sporadic pop-up thunderstorms are briefly reaching severe levels. These storms are slow moving and pretty much pour out all they've got over small areas.

UPDATE 5 p.m.: A small storm dropped some 3/4 to 1 inch hail on Brambleton Avenue in Roanoke, according to reports turned into the National Weather Service.

Click here and scroll down for latest storm reports

Click here for more on current warnings for Southwest Virginia.

Click here for current National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

Picture it: Typical summer weather

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For a few days we're in what could be called a typical summer weather pattern, even though it's not really summer yet (though many of you count Memorial Day as the start of summer). Heat, haze and humidity will be the rule the next few days, with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms here and there. I got this photo of a cumulonimbus, or thunderstorm cloud, scraping the sky west of Roanoke late Tuesday. Somewhere under this, there was probably a quick hit of heavy rain, lightning and maybe some gusty wind and hail, not unlike what a localized area of downtown Roanoke experienced on Monday. But from where I was, it was only a pretty cloud rising up in front of the late evening sunlight.

The summerlike weather pattern may change over the weekend as a new front moves in, giving us a better chance of more organized thunderstorms, and eventually, some cooler temperatures.

Memorial Day severe weather reports

Two area reports of severe weather from thunderstorms have been turned in to the National Weather Service: a tree blown down in Southwest Roanoke, and 3/4-inch hail west of Rocky Mount, shortly after 2 p.m. These came on a Memorial Day where some folks got awesome deluges of rain laced with lightning, while others a few distance away stayed dry while only hearing the thunder.

Click here for a complete listing of today's severe weather reports nationally.

Strong wind gusts, heavy rain possible

Much of Virginia from here eastward and northward has a slight risk of severe weather today, according to the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., primarily for the threat of strong wind gusts. A similar episode of storms, triggered by a weak cold front and heat and humidity, triggered numerous reports of wind damage through northern and eastern Virginia on Sunday.

Also of note this weekend: Roanoke Regional Airport received a Saturday afternoon deluge of 1.34 inches of rain in an isolated thunderstorm, while much of the rest of the Roanoke Valley got little or no rain. I drove right smack into that downpour on the last leg of my trip ... I guess that was the last "storm intercept" of the 2007 storm chase.

Wrapping up Storm Chase 2007

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What a trip this has been! We saw at least two tornadoes, several massive supercell thunderstorms spinning like flying saucers over South Dakota, Kansas and Texas, felt the force of 60-plus mph winds as it whipped dust and debris across Illinois prairies, got pinged by hail three times (but not too much), had some great meals of catfish and steak, and visited Mount Rushmore and Palo Duro Canyon. We scored six successful storm intercepts with no busted chases.

Though we are keeping an eye on severe weather possibilities along our route and to the north as we head eastward today across Arkansas and Tennessee, most likely the chase part of this trip is in the books.

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I'll leave with you a couple of photos to link to from some of our other chasers, including a closeup shot from Virginia Tech student Daniel Burton of the funnel cloud near Hill City, Kan., a bigger version of the inset photo. Earlier we had filmed this same tornado when it was more of a cone shape to our north as we drove through dusty Kansas back roads.

Also, here's a link to the inset photo from North Carolina-Asheville student David Ramsaur, our group's student trainer. The photo shows our chase team and vans under a swirling supercell structure over Kansas on Tuesday.

Click here for additional photos from the chase trip.

Weather Journal columns related to the chase trip can be clicked on here (June 2) and here (June 13)

Once again, here is a list of the members of our 2007 chase team:

Dave Carroll, co-leader, Pulaski County High School teacher and Virginia Tech adjunct instructor
Kevin Myatt, co-leader, Roanoke Times weather columnist
David Ramsaur, student trainer, University of North Carolina-Asheville
Sandy LaCorte, University of North Carolina-Asheville
Tegan Hamblin, Pulaski County High School
Alicia Bayse, Pulaski County High School
Amanda Chambers, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Florida (she is from Buchanan)
Ross Hudnall, Virginia Tech
Daniel Burton, Virginia Tech
Zach Olin, Virginia Tech
Alex Jochym, Virginia Tech
Adam Smith, Virginia Tech


Audio: Click the play button to hear Dwayne Yancey talk with Kevin Myatt about the final leg of his Midwest storm-chasing trip.


Another big supercell -- maybe another tornado

Our group of storm chasers caught another spectacular supercell Wednesday before sunset in the northeast corner of the Texas Panhandle. Unlike Tuesday, when we were almost constantly on the move, we were able to pull along a roadside and watch the rotating storm for about an hour without moving. It appears we may have observed and filmed another tornado (click here for still frame) ... also detected on radar and reported by a sheriff's deputy in the same time frame ... but it wasn't as immediately obvious to us as Tuesday's tornado was. In any event, it was a spectacular show of atmospheric violence amid the peaceful pastures of Texas.

Photo of supercell storm


Audio: Click the play button to hear Dwayne Yancey talk with Kevin Myatt about the stormy weather Kevin has seen.

Images from a great, grueling chase day

I'll be working on getting images and video from Tuesday's chase in northwest Kansas for many days -- especially since we're expecting another potentially very active chase day today in southern Kansas. We targeted an area along and north of Interstate 70 between Hays and Colby, near and just west of WaKeeney. By 4 p.m., storms began to fire just west of where we were waiting for them, and we spent about the next five hours chasing storm structures of incredible beauty and power over the open plains of Kansas. We did see a tornado, as you can see in the middle of the attached video and also in the still shot linked below. Below is a sampler of some of what we saw, beginning with a big image of the "mother ship" supercell in the inset photo ... the structure of the storm rounded by powerful winds aloft.
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"Mother ship" supercell

Tornado in Graham County, Kansas

Rotating wall cloud near silos

Chaser Amanda Chambers of Buchanan photographing precipitation shaft and "rain foot"

Audio: Click the play button to hear Dwayne Yancey talk with Kevin Myatt about the stormy weather Kevin has seen.

Tornado, hail and more

I could write a book on today's storm chase, which included 5 hours of hard chasing on Kansas back roads, golfball-sized hail, numerous other-worldly supercell thunderstorms, and, almost as an afterthought, a tornado. But pulling in late to McPherson, Kan., late after an exhausting day, I'm much too tired to write much now. Hope to get some photos and video up soon.

A serious gamble

We weren't sure we had a bird in the hand with expected severe weather in the Dakotas on Monday, but even if we did, we still would have probably let it go for a whole flock of birds in the bush here in Kansas. By mid-afternoon Monday, our group of 12 storm chasers made a decision to entirely forego chasing in the Dakotas in order to get an early jump on placing ourselves in Kansas for what may be a big severe weather event, with the potential for powerful supercells and tornadoes, today. So Monday became a travel day, and we arrived at Hays, Kansas, late Monday. We'll likely travel a bit more southward toward Dodge City or so today as we set up in the best place where instability, wind shear and moisture will be maximized. This could be a huge storm day ... or a huge bust day. So it is when you follow the whims of weather.

NOTE: We seem to be having some trouble getting our location to show on the tracking map. We're unsure what the problem is. Hopefully, this can be corrected later today as we get near more digital repeaters that would pick up our signal.

Today's tornado potential from Storm Prediction Center


Audio: Click the play button to hear Dwayne Yancey talk with Kevin Myatt about chasing storms in Kansas.

An All-American storm chase day

Sunday was the best day of our storm chase trip so far, as we succeeded in catching a supercell thunderstorm as it blew off the Black Hills over Rapid City, South Dakota. We targeted western South Dakota and southeast Montana as the area most likely to have significant severe weather despite limitations in moisture and deep atmospheric shear, or changing winds with height. But as we approached Rapid City, this storm (click here for larger version of photo) was already firing, and somewhere it was finding enough spin in the atmosphere to become a supercell. What we saw was a textbook look at a "low precipitation supercell," or "LP" as it's known in weather geek talk. It produced little rain but spit out quite a bit of hail in the Rapid City area, and a few larger stones dinged our vans as we headed southward to observe the storm. For a time, the storm produced a rotating lowering known as a wall cloud (click here for video still frame), which in some situations can be a precursor to a tornado. In this case, though, there wasn't enough low-level spin and the cloud base was too high for a tornado ... a very good thing for Rapid City!

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A supercell thunderstorm dominates the sky over Rapid City, South Dakota

We moved south and the storm passed us to the north, headed east. Later in the day, it would be part of a large complex of storms known as a "mesoscale convective system" or "MCS" ... a fancy way of saying an organized cluster of storms. We actually caught back up with it by mid-evening.

In between ... we found we were only 15 miles away from a great American landmark, so the chase vans pulled in for an afternoon stop at Mount Rushmore. Here I am below the presidential quartet set in stone.

It's hard to beat a day like this, but the severe weather outlook continues to look more active for the next 3 or 4 days. So the best may be yet to come.

Click here to check out a lightning photo from Virginia Tech student Daniel Burton taken at Murdo, South Dakota


Audio: Click the play button to hear Dwayne Yancey talk with Kevin Myatt about stormy weather in South Dakota this weekend.

Another small chase; big chase days loom

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We did catch up to some storms today that fired in north-central Nebraska, actually farther southeast than the official forecasts indicated they would. We sniffed out the location of a cold front from the wind changes we noted approaching the Nebraska-South Dakota border. We watched as the cumulus clouds grew into cumulonimbus clouds (such as the one linked here, with one of the chase vans and its occupants in the foreground) and eventually produced marginally severe storms. We even encountered marble-sized hail for a bit, slowly backing off each time to make sure something bigger wasn't looming.

We're in Chamberlain, South Dakota, tonight facing a confusing, but potentially very active, severe weather forecast the next few days. Sunday may yet produce a chase day in the Dakotas, and the Monday-Thursday time frame may produce several opportunities. For the first time during this trip, tornadoes become a serious possibility on Sunday, and that potential only grows as the week goes along.

Maybe some action today?

No matter what the tracker map shows (link at upper left), we're in North Platte, Nebraska, this morning after pulling in early, a great meal at a steakhouse and a relatively early bedtime. We're drifting north toward South Dakota today on the lookout for isolated storms firing along a frontal boundary. There looks to be some chance of storms each of the next five days, with the best chances still focusing on Monday-Wednesday when widespread severe weather may occur advancing eastward from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley.

I've heard it's oddly chilly back home in Virginia.

We're in a holding pattern

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Alicia Bayse of Pulaski County High School takes a photo over Palo Duro Canyon on a pretty West Texas day ... but a slow day for storms.

When there aren't storms to chase (there were better storms in Southwest Virginia than in the Plains on Thursday), we chase things that don't move -- like canyons. As we continue to wait for a more potent severe weather pattern to develop early next week, and it is looking likely that at least a moderately potent such pattern will develop, we do the tourist thing. Our highlight Thursday, as soon as it was obvious that convection over eastern New Mexico was pretty puny, was a visit to the Palo Duro Canyon south of Amarillo, Texas. (Click here for a bigger photo of the canyon, and some of our group) It was a cool, windy, dry day more like October than May ... good for a sightseeing trip, not for storm chasing.

Things look to change by Monday, and the next couple of day we will mainly be preparing for that. Unless something pops up in eastern Colorado today, we will not be chasing storms again until Sunday night at the earliest, and more likely, Monday onward, when we will likely have three or more very tiring days.


Audio: Click the play button to hear Dwayne Yancey talk with Kevin Myatt, in Liberal, Kan., about storm-chasing in the Great Plains.

Chasing flying bread

Wednesday was a travel day as expected, headed west. The highlight of the day was a stop at Lambert's Cafe in Sikeston, Mo., where servers hurl rolls across the room to dinner guests ... the famous "throwed rolls." (Catching the roll in the video is David Ramsaur, a senior majoring in meteorology at North Carolina-Asheville and our group's trainer and lead forecaster.) We like to throw in a little tourist type stuff in the long downtimes between storms.

We're in Shawnee, Okla., just east of Oklahoma City this morning. We're going to be headed west toward the region where Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, Colorado and Kansas meet, watching for storms to fire on moist flow up the higher terrain and then translate southeastward. We're not expecting much severe weather, just some photogenic clouds and maybe lightning in the early evening.

The big thing for us now is the Sunday-Wednesday period next week when a potent severe weather setup may be developing in the Plains. Getting positioned for that will be the most important thing for us.


Audio: Click the play button to hear Dwayne Yancey talk with Kevin Myatt about storms, travel and flying rolls.

An ill wind blows through Illinois


On Tuesday, we caught up to a severe storm just outside of Champaign, Ill., that hurled 60-plus mph winds at us, shaking our vans and hurtling dust across the fields of central Illinois. We were outside when the wind kicked in and could barely stand up against it. We got back in and watched leaves and dust and debris whisk past us for several minutes. My still photos don't do this justice -- it demands video.

Wednesday looks to be a travel day as we head toward the western High Plains to see if we can get any upslope thunderstorm action and to wait on potential weather pattern changes early next week that could turn things very active.


Audio: Click the play button to hear highlights of Kevin Myatt's trip

Stormy day in Iowa

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We had been talking about Iowa as a potential storm chasing target for more than a week. Though we ended up in extreme southern Minnesota for a short while, it was Iowa that proved to be fertile ground for a pretty decent opening storm chase on the 2007 chase trip. After doubling back, we played tag with a severe storm in central Iowa for a couple of hours late Monday. The storm produced several reports of large hail near Webster City, Iowa, which we (barely) managed to avoid. We were able to get quite a few nice photos of this storm, including this one (big version of inset photo) depicting a rain foot, or an area where outflow winds have pushed the rain shaft out near its bottom.

Today, we head to central Illinois to follow the cold front responsible for Monday's storms farther south. Central Illinois provided a particularly memorable storm chasing experience on last year's trip, as this blog entry from May 17 recalls.

Once again, you can follow our progress via the link on the upper right corner of this page. Sometimes, the radio signal necessary to update it isn't received for a few hours by the necessary receivers. For instance, as I write this, it marks us as in Waterloo, Iowa; actually, we are in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.


Audio: Click the play button to hear highlights of Kevin Myatt's trip

A long drive

We left Blacksburg around 9:30 a.m. and arrived in Moline, Ill., on the eastern shore of the Mississippi River, at midnight Central time (1 p.m. Eastern). We made an 800-mile first-day journey to set us up for a possible storm chase in western or northern Iowa, perhaps eastern Nebraska, today. A cold front will be moving into warm, moist air in the region, but there are mixed signals on the upper air wind dynamics. So we're not sure yet if there will be a lot of severe thunderstorms or just a few isolated ones. But with even lesser prospects for storms later in the week, we're going all out for this event. Will let you know tonight or Tuesday whether our long drive was fruitful or futile.

You can follow our position, relative to the map and to the radar, on the storm tracker page linked at the upper right of this blog.

Storms here ... will we find storms out there?

The irony today: I spent most of the day in Blacksburg, getting our two storm chase vans wired up for our trip that begins Sunday, and while I'm away, a severe thunderstorm blows up very near my south Roanoke County residence.

Hail up to golfball-sized was reported in parts of Franklin County, just east of Callaway, as the storm that formed near the south edge of Roanoke this evening moved southward. Other reports of wind damage and hail have been received mostly in areas east and south of Roanoke from scattered thunderstorms.

As for our storm chasers ... we head out early Sunday in the general direction of Iowa, where a severe storm outbreak may be possible late Monday.

Follow the storm chasers

NOTE: Technological problems have rendered our tracking page kaput, so I have removed this from the home page for the blog.

This isn't really your typical weather bulletin ... I just want to keep the link for the storm chase tracking page in the upper right corner of my blog for the next two weeks so I don't have to repeat it in every blog entry.

Click here for the current tracking of the storm chase team The page has been constructed by Ben Mills, a Virginia Tech engineering student and amateur radio enthusiast.

There may be a few times when we're out of radio range and the page isn't current ... but every year, the gaps in coverage get smaller and smaller, so it should have us pinpointed most of the trip.

Come ride along with us -- virtually!

It's almost time to chase storms again

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For the third consecutive year, I will be helping lead a storm chase team of high school and college students led by Pulaski County High School meteorology teacher Dave Carroll. We are planning to leave Sunday for about two weeks. The pattern over the central United States looks pretty quiet to start, but things might change as we go along. We may be chasing at least some severe storms over the Upper Midwest (think Iowa/Illinois area) as early as Monday, but many particulars on that remain to be seen.

You can follow our progress on the Web site linked here, created by Ben Mills, an engineering student and amateur radio enthusiast at Virginia Tech. I will also be updating this blog from time to time as we go along.

Chase team members are listed below:

Dave Carroll, co-leader, Pulaski County High School teacher and Virginia Tech adjunct instructor
Kevin Myatt, co-leader, Roanoke Times weather columnist
David Ramsaur, student trainer, University of North Carolina-Asheville
Sandy LaCorte, University of North Carolina-Asheville
Tegan Hamblin, Pulaski County High School
Alicia Basye, Pulaski County High School
Amanda Chambers, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Florida (she is from Buchanan)
Ross Hudnall, Virginia Tech
Daniel Burton, Virginia Tech
Zach Olin, Virginia Tech
Alex Jochym, Virginia Tech
Adam Smith, Virginia Tech

Click here for a closer look at our chase trip poster. I shot this photo of a rotating wall cloud, with the sun shining under it, in a supercell thunderstorm near Maroa, Ill., on last year's trip.

It has a name, but not quite a tropical storm

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The National Hurricane Center has named the storm off the Southeast coast Andrea, but it is a "subtropical" storm, not quite a fully fledged tropical storm. As I discussed as a possibility in the last blog entry, it has become a sort of "hybrid" storm with characteristics both of a synoptic low pressure system and of a tropical system. Subtropical storm Andrea, with winds of up to 45 mph, is meandering aimlessly east of Florida and Georgia. The best thing it could do would be to sit and spin out a couple of days rain on the fire- and drought-plagued areas of the Southeast. It is still expected to have no direct effect on our weather in Southwest Virginia as it is gradually absorbed into the larger wind flow aloft and eventually carried off to the northeast.

Click here for a larger version of the inset satellite photo

More on subtropical storm Andrea on the National Hurricane Center's Web site.

Sorta looks like a tropical system

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A strong low pressure system has wrapped up off the Southeast coast. For now, that's exactly what it is, a cold-core low forming at the intersection of clashing air masses. It's spinning a lot of wind and waves offshore. It looks a little bit like a tropical system, but right now, it's not one. There is some chance,though, that as the storm gradually weakens, enough convection could fire near its core to spin it up a little more as a hybrid between a cold-core low and a tropical system. Instead of drawing its energy solely from the collision of air masses, the storm may begin drawing some of its energy from the warm water. If that occurs in sufficient amount, there is a slight chance this storm could become the Atlantic's first tropical depression or tropical storm of 2007, nearly 4 weeks before the June 1 official start of hurricane season. That would be a judgment call for the National Hurricane Center, which is monitoring this odd storm. The coast from the Carolinas to the Florida will experience increased waves and possibly some wind and rain from this storm as it makes a close shave later this week. One limiting factor on tropical development is that sea surface temperatures are generally in the low 70s, when 80 and above is much more conducive for tropical development. Tropical or not, this little pinwheel of wind and rain will spin rather aimlessly for a few days to our southeast, but should have little direct effect on Southwest Virginia weather.

A couple of cold nights

Though the overall pattern this week is for more sunshine and gradually warming days, the drier air that has moved in will also allow for temperatures to drop sharply at night. Temperatures tonight could be around 40 in the Roanoke Valley and as low as the mid 30s in outlying areas. That is why a frost advisory has been issued for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge. Some patchy frost is possible tonight, especially in the lowest valleys away from urban areas. This will not be the major killing freeze like happened a month ago, but you might want to take a few tender plants inside. Monday night will also be pretty colder, just a few degrees warmer than tonight.

Aerial photos of Greensburg, Kansas, damage

The aerial photos of what Friday night's tornado did to Greensburg, Kansas, are jaw-dropping in their severity.

And the region from Texas to South Dakota had another rough severe weather this afternoon into the evening. We'll see what the light of day reveals on Sunday about the new damage.

Deadly night for small town in Kansas

Greensburg, Kansas, was hit by a large tornado on Friday night, with at least seven people killed. (Click here for story) Tornadoes can be deadly at any time of day, but are particularly frightening after dark when they can't easily be seen.

It looks like another dangerous day in the central Plains. Much of central Kansas and Nebraska are under a high risk of severe weather today, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

Another dank day ... then improvement

The current regime of cool, showery weather will hang on one more day before a warm-up and dry-out last several days begins Sunday..

Meanwhile, several days of severe thunderstorms and heavy rains are affecting the central U.S.

It is May.

More or less normal

Thursday's temperature readings in Roaoke are an example of why you have to take "normals" with a dose of salt. It was a day that averaged only 1 degree below normal even though afternoon temperatures were stuck in the low to mid 50s on an afternoon that's typicall in the lower 70s. The high of 68, 5 degrees below normal, was recorded just after midnight ... temperatures fell the rest of the day in chilly rain and breezes behind a cold front. The low, in the late evening just before midnight Friday, was 52 ... actually 3 degrees above the normal low of 49.

It did not feel like a "normal" May day outside.

The month of April is similar: It ended up essentially a normal month in temperature, averaging 0.2 degree below normal. It was very warm a few days early, very cold in the middle, and very warm again at the end.

Normal is the average of extremes, once again.

Does this count as a "widespread, soaking" rain?

... there is little indication our area will experience any kind of widespread, soaking rain in the next week or so.
So I wrote in my Wednesday column.

Since I've been writing Weather Journal, I've learned the easiest way to get something to happen is to write that it won't or can't happen.

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Today's rain is certainly more widespread than was expected a couple of days ago. Warm, moist air overriding the now nearly stalled cold front that moved through from the north on Wednesday is producing a steady, light rain across the Roanoke and New River valleys. This rain is certainly beneficial for an area that could soon be teetering on the brink of drought. Amounts are pretty light overall, so I would not say this is a rain that would save us from future dry days, if they come about. But combined with any more small to medium rain events that could develop in the next couple of weeks, it could help forestall any tendency to slide toward drought that may develop later.

It's certainly a widespread rain, and for some, it may be a soaking rain. Though many of you don't like this chilly, dank day after so many warm, sunny ones, it is certainly a welcome and needed rain, and one we may appreciate even more if the Southeast drought begins expanding northward in the weeks ahead.