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Weather Journal

with Kevin Myatt

Storminess subsides, but may re-fire today

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The severe storms have cooled down for the evening, after numerous reports of wind damage (the blue dots) and hail (the green dots) in Virginia and North Carolina on this Storm Prediction Center severe reports map for Thursday. (Click here for a look at the entire map, with listings of each report.) There may well be more rain and thunderstorms overnight and into the day, with some potential for strong to severe storms again in the afternoon as the heating builds, particularly from the Blue Ridge eastward. Many locations may also get some much-needed rainfall. While a few spots actually got too much in a short time this week, the overall moisture picture for most of this region is still one of dryness and near-drought.

Cooler, drier weather is still on tap for the weekend and early next week.

Storms blow into Roanoke, other areas

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Ominous storm clouds blow over downtown Roanoke

As scattered severe thunderstorms have developed over Southwest Virginia this afternoon, there have been reports of wind damage in several locations. Trees have been reported at Carter Road and at Edgewood Road in Roanoke, according to reports turned into the National Weather Service in Blacksburg. Trees have also been reported down from storms in Wythe, Floyd, Pulaski and Carroll counties. Click here and scroll down for a list of storm reports turned in to the weather service.

I got a pretty neat photo (click here for a bigger version of inset photo) of a shelf cloud pushing out on outflow winds from a storm over Roanoke shortly after 5 p.m. that was carrying a severe thunderstorm warning at the time. We had heavy rain and wind gusts around 40 mph in the downtown area, but obviously some folks had a little bit higher winds.

The severe thunderstorm watch continues until 11 p.m.

Severe thunderstorm watch until 11 p.m.

A severe thunderstorm watch covers all of western Virginia through 11 p.m. Unlike the last several days of sparse thunderstorms that were locally strong and moved very slowly, today's storms will be much more organized and will be moved along by a bit stronger wind dynamics aloft as a cold front approaches from the west. High winds and some hail are the main threats.

Click here for additional information on the watch from the Storm Prediction Center

Click here for the latest from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg

More organized storminess may be on the way

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A thunderstorm in Buena Vista on Wednesday produced winds that blew the roofs off of two businesses in town. We've had several days of these kind of pop-up storms, where a few isolated areas get really serious storm effects while most people don't get much. By Thursday evening into Friday, there may be more organized storminess in the area as a pretty strong cold front approaches the area. The Storm Prediction Center as of Thursday evening had put most of Virginia from our area northward under a slight risk of severe weather with the expectation of storm clusters that could produce strong winds and hail. The storms are likely to linger into Friday, but then cooler and drier weather will settle in for most of the weekend into early next week, before the heat and humidity will begin to build again.

Persistence

Today, and probably Wednesday and Thursday, look to be carbon copies of Sunday and Monday ... warm to hot, sticky, with afternoon thunderstorms. A few of the storms will become severe and produce damaging winds and large hail over localized areas while most people just hear thunder and get a little rain. Rockbridge County seems to have bore the brunt of strong thunderstorm winds on Monday evening, with scattered reports elsewhere.

The daily humidity and storms are keeping this from being an extremely hot period as it had the potential to be, as the daily cumulus clouds, wind gusts and rain keep tempreatures from building well into the 90s. We get to the mid or upper 80s, maybe low 90s, and then the storms start rumbling. But the trade-off is more humidity, with dew points near 70, which off set the not-quite-as-hot temperatures.

By Thursday evening, a cold front is slated to move through the area, and this could trigger a more organized round of storms. Behind it, cooler, drier weather is expected just in time for the weekend.

By the way ... while every drop of rain from these spotty storms helps, it's not making much of a dent in the overall near-drought situation. While a few locations get an inch, 2 inches or even more rain, most folks are getting well under a quarter-inch. We need to take the heavy rain and spread it out into a moderate rain for many hours to ease the dryness.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms

Hail up to 1 inch in diameter was reported at Fairlawn in Pulaski County and some wind damage has occurred in storms from Grayson County southward. Blacksburg had 0.88-inch hail, according to one report from the public, and that same storm moved over the Roanoke Valley, prompting a severe thunderstorm warning, though the storm weakened as it moved over. Still, some lightning, heavy rain and a few stiff breezes in parts of the Roanoke metro area.

When we're dealing with the kind of heat and humidity we're going to have this week, it is not surprising to have some severe storms from time to time. Again, each day this week, some people will get strong storms, others will just hear thunder in the distance. The pattern still looks to turn cooler and drier by late in the week.

Click here, and scroll down, for a listing of severe weather reports in the National Weather Service-Blacksburg forecast area

Change by the end of the week?

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For the next few days, it's typical summer stuff: Highs in the 80s and 90s, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with most folks staying dry while a few get a downpour. Toward the end of the week, though, there may be a significant change in the weather pattern that will bring cooler than normal temperatures to our area. A "backdoor" cold front appears primed to slip southward from eastern Canada, allowing cooler temperatures to build into the Eastern U.S. while the West heats up. The Climate Prediction Center, which is still projecting extreme heat just west and just east of us a few days this week, is now calling for below normal temperatures in our area during the 8-14 day period, which would start next weekend. So blazing mid-summer heat may not be quite ready to settle in for weeks to come.

Hot and dry ahead

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This map from the Climate Prediction Center shows threat areas of extreme heat just west and just east of us during the next week. That means, while our heat may not meet the definition of "extreme," it will be plenty hot. Building high pressure over the area promises to bring warmer than normal temperatures and below normal precipitation over the next 6-10 days. Precipitation will be limited to some scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms on a few days when heat and humidity will combine with weak disturbances or fronts ... Saturday has some potential. This is not very good news considering we are now at the lip of true drought conditions across the area, as this map shows us in "abnormally dry" conditions. When hot and dry weather builds in and dries the ground and vegetation out, it becomes increasingly difficult to break out of drought, usually requiring something unusual in the atmosphere. Last year, we got that something unusual with several days of late June rain as a tropical fetch blew against the mountains. Nothing like that is on the horizon, at least for now. Feel blessed if you get a shower.

Returning home to storms

My wife and I rolled into town late Tuesday after a 10-day trip to the central and western U.S. (vacation this time, not storm chasing, though we did see a few storms) to find a lightning show over the mountains of Southwest Virginia. Several reports of severe weather were turned into the National Weather Service in Blacksburg today, including a tree blown across the intersection of Franklin Road and Avenham Avenue in Roanoke during the afternoon, several more trees blown down in and around Rocky Mount this evening, and numerous reports of hail and high winds from the Tazewell County area this evening.

Also: Link here for an article on a SUV hit and pinned by a tree blown down in a storm in Alleghany County.

We'll get a couple days break from storms as a weak cold front moves through overnight. The next pretty good chance of thunderstorms arrives over the weekend. Overall, we're still pretty dry, so we could use the rain.

Typical June weather ahead

Most of Saturday's severe storm reports were well to Roanoke's south, as this map shows. The rest of this week will feature warmer temperatures and daily chances of afternoon thunderstorms, the greatest chance on Tuesday as a weak cold front approaches the area.

Slight risk of severe weather today

With a moderate amount of spin moving through the mid to high layers of the atmosphere, the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Virginia south of Roanoke, extending into adjacent parts of North Carolina, under a slight risk of severe weather today for the threat of storm clusters that could produce local wind damage and some hail.

Click here for the latest from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg.

Stuck in the wedge

Cool, damp air is being pushed southwestward against the mountains by high pressure in Canada, resulting in fog, drizzle and temperatures that, for June, could be described as "chilly," 50s and 60s. It's not unusual for Virginia to get a couple of setups like this during the course of a summer, and just like most other times, this one won't last long. The "wedge" of cool, damp air will be in evidence on Friday before temperatures gradually warm over the weekend and a more typical summertime regime sets in.

Looking back at some big storms

I'm taking a break for a few days, so the blog won't get many new entries ... I won't entirely rule it out though if something of meteorological substance is happening.

But if you're looking for links to the big storm last week that went through Pulaski, Floyd, Franklin and Henry counties, dumping lots of hail and blowing trees down, here and here and here are some places to click.

And if you want to look back on Storm Chase 2007 ... which I'll be writing about in a Weather Journal column later this week ... then click here for the blog entries and photos and here for some additional photos.

After that my column on storm chasers runs this week, Weather Journal will be on hiatus in the newspaper until June 23.

In the meantime ... enjoy summer sunshine and a few thunderstorms now and then.

Some severe reports on Friday

Once again, Franklin County seems to have bore the brunt of severe storm reports, but this time on the northern side of the county. Hail up to .88 inch in diameter was reported and some trees were blown down from northeast of Boones Mill toward Burnt Chimney, according to reports turned into the National Weather Service in Blacksburg.

Somewhat cooler weather will move in for the weekend, and showers and thunderstorms will become even more widely scattered.

Severe weather possible this evening

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UPDATE, 7 p.m.: The line isn't holding together extremely well, breaking down into scattered storms as it moves east. Other storms continue to pop up ahead of the broken line. Isolated areas of high winds and hail are possible throughout the evening with any of these storms.

ORIGINAL ENTRY, 4:30 p.m.: A few pop-up storms have become severe this afternoon to our south in Henry and Franklin counites, but a more widespread threat of severe weather may arrive this evening as a cold front slams into the near-record heat we're experiencing. A line of thunderstorms is already moving across states to our west, as the inset radar shot shows, and a row of severe thunderstorm watches to the west as well. I would not be surprised to see a watch placed for us as this line moves eastward. High winds will be main threat from storms that move in tonight, but heavy rain, hail and frequent lightning will also be threats as well.

Latest from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg

A little sizzle, then a few rumbles

Looks like a hot day on tap for Friday, with temperatures topping 90 in many locations from Roanoke south and east. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 95 readings down in Southside. The warm air aloft will be hard to for the rising hot air at the surface to punch through, but if that cap is broken, a few big thunderstorms could erupt in the late afternoon and early evening. (Read my column from Wednesday on the importance of capping in thunderstorm development) Adding to the threat is a weak cold front expected to make its way into the area Friday evening or early Saturday. So you'll probably break a sweat if you're outdoor much on Friday, and that heat and humidity might help break the cap for a few thunderstorms later in the day.

Hail photos from Tuesday's storm

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Hail piles up on a Leslie Hollandsworth's deck in western Floyd County

Leslie Hollandsworth, of Indian Valley in western Floyd County, sent me a series of photos showing the hail-hammered aftermath on her property following Tuesday night's severe storm that moved east-southeastward across Southwest Virginia. I've posted three of them, including a big version of the inset photo show hailed piled up on a deck, and two others: one showing hail stacked up after running off her roof, and another showing more piled-up hail and a plant that didn't fare so well in the onslaught. Be sure and check out the story by Sheila Ellis on the Virginia section front in the newspaper and roanoke.com about the family in Franklin County whose home and cars were crushed by a tree that was blown down in the storm.

Tuesday's ferocious storm

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Scott Frye shot this photo of the storm moving into the Pulaski area late Tuesday. The ominous lowering is known as a "shelf cloud" and marks the leading edge of rain, wind and hail with the storm.

Hail covered the ground like snow in parts of Floyd, Franklin and Henry counties on Tuesday night. (Some conflicting information on earlier reports about plows being used to clear U.S. 220 of hail ... we're checking into this.) Though it wasn't extremely warm and humid at the surface, we had much colder air aloft than we've had, and this allowed hail to form abundantly. Also, the wind dynamics higher in the atmosphere were stronger than we've had recently, so the storm that moved across Bland, Pulaski, Wythe, Floyd, Franklin and Henry counties moved faster and kept its intensity going longer than the pulse storms we've had the last few weeks. Wind damage and large hail reports were widespread along this path.

Click here for a larger version of inset photo, and here for a second photo from Scott Frye in Pulaski County

If you have any storm photos that you don't mind me using, please email them to me at kevin.myatt@roanoke.com.

Severe thunderstorms move through

This map from the Storm Prediction Center shows today's reports of severe weather (3/4 inch or larger hail, 58 mph or greater winds, any tornadoes). Notice the reports lined up from Kentucky into Southwest Virginia south of Roanoke. Severe thunderstorm warnings are ongoing in Southside Virginia, spreading from Martinsville eastward. There were a number of reports of hail as large as an inch in diameter covering the ground, as well as reports of trees blown down by high winds in Franklin, Henry, Floyd and nearby counties. Considering the isolated, long-lived nature of the storm and some indication of rotation on radar at times, the storm may well have been a supercell.

More on the latest warnings from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg.

Click here and scroll down for severe weather reports in Southwest Virginia

Watching to our west

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You may have noticed some pretty big gusts of wind in the Roanoke and New River valleys around 10 or 10:30 last night. That was an "outflow boundary" from storms earlier in the day in West Virginia. The storms puffed out a blast of air that continued to travel eastward even after the storms themselves had died.

Storms are breaking out in Kentucky this afternoon, where a severe thunderstorm watch has been placed into effect. We'll see if these storms can work into our area overnight, or whether they will kick out another outflow boundary toward us. The disturbance responsible for firing these storms may kick up some new ones as it moves through on Wednesday.

Good rain for our area ... but we still need more

Most areas of Southwest Virginia got 1-2 inches of rain on Sunday ... with even greater amounts at some higher elevations (click on the "Continued" line below for a National Weather Service list of weekend precipitation totals in the area). But our region could still be susceptible to drought (see Cody Lowe's article from today's newspaper) if we trend toward hot/dry weather in the long term, and there are signs that's exactly the direction we will head toward the end of this week. Whether it's long term for the summer or just another short-term weather shift remains to be seen.

Click here for the latest drought map from the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Neb.

Continue reading "Good rain for our area ... but we still need more" »

Close call on big rains for Southwest Virginia

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Roanoke (shown by dot) is projected to get .50 to .75 inch of rain (the dark blue shade)

As the depression named Barry barrels up the east coast over the next 24 hour, it will try its darndest to spread a shield of rain back to the west, against the Blue Ridge. That will put our area, particularly along and east of I-81, on the cusp between just a showery/rumbly kind of day sorta like we've had of late and a significant (and for anyone who hasn't got an isolated flooding downpour lately, a much needed) rainfall. This map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center on Saturday afternoon projects 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain over much of our area by Sunday evening, with a little less just west of Roanoke. A little shift west in the projected track of this system could bring more rain than that, but it is moving pretty fast, so don't expect it to stall and soak us like these kind of tropical has-beens sometimes do.

Latest national and regional Doppler radar

Latest National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar

Latest from National Weather Service-Blacksburg

Lots of storm images

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Updraft base of "mothership" supercell storm in northern Kansas

I've added three more storm photos to the photos I've already posted from Storm Chase 2007, which I write about in my Saturday, June 2, Weather Journal column. Below, I've also re-linked several other locations on the blog with video and photos of storms both locally and from the various storm-chasing trips to the central U.S. that I've made the last couple of years. From each of these three photos, you can see the "striations" or layers in the storm clouds indicating the effects of high-level winds in sculpting and spinning the storms. As I explain in my column, these high-level winds are often what are missing from our local thunderstorms. You can click on a bigger version of each of these pictures here: top photo, middle photo, bottom photo.
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Suspicious lowering beneath updraft base of Kansas supercell

We did see a couple of tornadoes during the course of this trip as you can see on these links: funnel in Kansas, cone tornado in Kansas, late-evening tornado in Texas. And click here for a wide variety of storm photos and video from our 2007 trip (and if you scroll far enough down, from 2006 too) as well as a day-by-day account of our trip (and some of my other storm chase outings, if you scroll down far enough).

But I also have lots of interesting shots from local storms, taken by me and others. For instance, a fierce thunderstorm late last September that dumped copious hail just to the north of Roanoke.

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High-precipitation, or HP, supercell in Texas Panhandle

And a July storm that sailed over downtown Roanoke with an impressive shelf cloud. Here's an interesting shot from the Blue Ridge Parkway last June. I chased a storm along the North-Carolina-Virginia border in September. If you saw the Saturday paper, you would have seen this May 10 shot of a thunderstorm blowing up on Roanoke's northern horizon. And just last Tuesday, I shot this cumulonimbus shrouding the late-day sun.

I just wanted to put a large variety of storm shots online in connection with today's column. There are always amazing things to see in the sky, whether it's pulse storms in our mountains or supercells in the Plains.

Tropical Storm Barry, a soaking where it's needed

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Tropical Storm Barry has formed in the northeast Gulf of Mexico with 45 mph sustained winds. This storm probably isn't going to become any kind of memorable beast, almost certainly won't be a hurricane, but it is likely to deliver significant rainfall in fire-charred areas of northern Florida and southern Georgia. After that, it is expected to track northeastward along the East Coast. We may be a bit too far west to get much out of it, but it bears watching. Anyone traveling east toward the Carolina coast or Hampton Roads should be aware of the potential for heavy rain by late in the weekend.

Thunderstorms again developing, some severe

Once again, thunderstorms are developing here and there through the area as daytime heating bubbles the moisture upward into somewhat cooler air aloft. Franklin and Floyd counties have been placed under severe thunderstorm warnings in the past half an hour (as of 2:20 p.m.). Expect scattered storms similar to Thursday with some area under the heaviest storms getting gusty winds, hail and very heavy rain.

Click here for the latest from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg.

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  • Power just went out in the Stoneledge area right on the Roanoke/Botetourt county line.more - Brandon R.
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About this blog

Mug of Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States."

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