Flash flood warning in a droughtPosted Aug31, 2007 at 10:38 PMSlow moving showers and thunderstorms have been pouring rain off and on for hours roughly along the Blue Ridge from Rockbridge County south into the Roanoke Valley. A flash flood warning has been issued for parts of Roanoke city, Roanoke County and Bedford County until 2:30 a.m. as ongoing heavy rain has created the potential for localized flooding in these areas. That's right -- a flash flood warning in the middle of a drought. Welcome rain, but maybe a little too much at once. Latest National Weather Service radar (a little difficult to see with ground clutter) My counting got off somewherePosted Aug31, 2007 at 09:55 PMThere have been 27 days at or above 90 in August -- not 28 as I was saying earlier. I've gone back and recounted them. I got off somewhere. It's still a record, though. Blessed downpoursPosted Aug31, 2007 at 08:09 PMShowers and thunderstorms have been dumping some decent rains in parts of the Roanoke Valley this evening. I watched a gusty gullywasher in south Roanoke County about 7 p.m. only to return to a still-dry downtown. Now, it's raining here. It's still not the kind of widespread, general rain we need across the area, but maybe it's a good sign as we leave a hot and dry August behind and enter September. Another 90-plus day seals the record bookPosted Aug31, 2007 at 06:12 PMThe overachieving heat wave of 2007 continues, as the high today hit 91, the 28th day of 90s in the month of August. With a low of 68, the all-time monthly heat record for Roanoke has been set: 82.2 degrees for the average temperature, 93.7 for the high and 70.6 for the low. The deal is sealed: The hottest month on recordPosted Aug31, 2007 at 12:09 AMToday may well be the coolest day of August 2007, but that would only require it getting no higher than 86. It won't matter, though. Unless it starts out in the 30s and doesn't rise above 67 -- our low might not even be that cool -- this day will conclude Roanoke's hottest month on record. It appears we'll end the month with an average temperature near 82 degrees, an average high above 93 degrees and average low above 70 degrees. By monthly climate standards, none of the records are likely to be close, no closer than half a degree to the previous standards. Also, the 27 days at or above 90 this August is a runaway record for greatest number of 90-plus days in a single month. The previous record of 23 days occurred in July 1987. It's taken me most of the month to get all that counted, but I made it in time for the end of the month. More on all this in Saturday's Roanoke Times. Another hot day fires some big stormsPosted Aug30, 2007 at 05:32 PMRoanoke hit 93 today -- the 27th day out of 30 this month to reach or exceed 90 -- but we are seeing some storms that have been putting out some big rains in a few areas. In fact -- parts of Roanoke and Montgomery counties, to the south of Roanoke city and southeast of Blacksburg/Christiansburg, are under a small stream advisory right now because of heavy rain in a short time. Yes, you can be in a moderate drought and still have localized flooding from a few heavy donwpours. Unfortunately, we won't be able to spread this rain out for everyone. Hottest month record: It's a lockPosted Aug29, 2007 at 05:50 PMHighs of 93 today and 90 on Tuesday -- making an amazing 26 of 29 days at or above 90 in Roanoke for August -- and much-above-normal lows of 74 and 71 those days have made it pretty much a lock that this will be Roanoke's hottest month on record in all three categories: average high, average low and overall average temperature. The average high record would have the most chance of not being obtained -- our highs the next two days would have to average 81 degrees to stop that from happening. With a high in the low to mid 90s likely for Thursday, that is extremely unlikely. We'd have to have some temperatures in the 40s the next two days to stop the average low and overall average records from happening. Barring a planetary cataclysm, that's not gonna happen. Through today, the current averages for the month are 93.8 degrees for a high, 70.7 degrees for a low, and 82.3 degrees for the overall average. The records to beat are 93.0 for a high (July 1977), 69.6 for the low (July 2005) and 80.2 for the overall average (July 1993). A two-degree margin for an overall monthly average temperature record is a runaway. Closing in on the hottest month on recordPosted Aug28, 2007 at 09:55 AMWhile today through Friday will most likely be considerably cooler than what we saw through much of the first four weeks of August, the current projections are that the temperatures will not be cool enough to keep Roanoke from completely rewriting its hottest monthly temperature record book. If the National Weather Service's point forecast for Roanoke as of 9:30 a.m. verifies for temperature the next four days (89, 90, 88 and 84 for highs; 66, 68, 66 and 63 for lows), the average high temperature for August will be 93.2 degrees, the average low 70 degrees and the average overall temperature 81.6 degrees. Should this verify, that would be a triple crown of monthly heat records, as the previous records are 93 degrees for the average high in July 1977, 69.6 degrees for the average low in July 2005, and 80.2 degrees for the overall average temperature in July 1993. I could see the possibility that clouds and showers could keep high temperatures farther down than expected a day or two this week to barely keep the record monthly high temperature intact, but I don't see anything that's going to drop the lows enough to keep the monthly average low temperature from being broken. Our lows often tend to be a few degrees warmer than forecast. And the overall average temperature record looks to be a runaway. The August records are a virtual lock to be broken. Current August records are 90.6 for the high (1959), 68.7 for the low (2005) and 79.1 for the overall average temperature (1959). Meteorological fall starts Saturday, the first day of September, and it still looks like it will much cooler well into early September, possibly below normal. Keep in mind that last September, Roanoke set a record for coolest average September high temperature. What a difference a year can make. A new streak beginsPosted Aug27, 2007 at 04:31 PMWith temperatures only in the mid 80s in Roanoke during this late afternoon, this appears as if it will be our second day in a row with high temperatures below 90 -- the first time that's happened since late July. With overnight lows not going much below 70 most of this week, and probably at least one more day of 90-degree weather likely around Thursday, it still looks like we're or a headlong rush for a record hot August. It's still mighty dryPosted Aug26, 2007 at 07:16 AMThe last U.S. Drought Monitor map shows most of western Virginia in either moderate or severe drought. We've gotten some spotty rains during the past several days and we'll see if we can cook up some more today as a cold front presses into the area from the northwest. Today probably will not be quite as hot as Saturday. The week ahead looks to be mostly near normal in temperature, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s, though we'll probably creep back into the 90s near midweek. Much cooler weather appears likely by next weekend, and it could set in for a while. But still ... though there will be showers and storms on some days, there's no real widespread, general rainfall in sight. It did it again -- 100 degreesPosted Aug25, 2007 at 06:13 PMRoanoke's high temperature hit 100 degrees today, smashing the record for the date of 95 set in 1993. It was also the fourth day this month that temperatures hit at least 100 degrees. Blacksburg also set a record with a high of 93, breaking the record of 90, also from 1993. I believe this is the last day it will get to 100 in Roanoke this year, as the weather pattern begins to change in the next few days, gradually at first and then more dramatically after that. Thunderstorms are popping up this afternoon, some severe. Hail fell for 10 minutes northwest of Lewisburg, W.Va. earlier this afternoon. A cool thought on a hot dayPosted Aug24, 2007 at 11:57 PM
Unless Sunday can provide a heat repeat before a cold front and its associated storminess arrives, today just might be the last extremely hot day of 2007. Expect a high between 95 and 100 today, though afternoon storms may again interrupt the heat before it has a chance to climb into triple digits. Roanoke's record high for today is only 95, so this day will probably go into the record books. If you don't like the heat -- and I've only met a handful of people who do like it -- just hang on a few days more and relief will be on the way. A record high -- then rumblesPosted Aug24, 2007 at 03:53 PMRoanoke has set a new record high for the date of at least 95 -- but today was much more humid than many of the hot days in recent weeks, and many storms have fired, several of which have become severe. In the Roanoke Valley, the south half once again is getting the best rain, quite a downpour in many places. Blacksburg also set a record high of 94 before wind gusts from a storm dropped temperatures. Click here for the latest from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg. Record high today would not be a big dealPosted Aug24, 2007 at 09:58 AMWhen it comes to record highs for Roanoke, Aug. 24 is the low hurdle on the track. The record high for this date is only 93, set in 1998. It's a curious anomaly, the lowest record high for any date in August, and in fact lower than the record high for all but two dates in the first 19 days of September. It's just so happened that in the previous 58 years of record-keeping at Roanoke's airport, a period of extreme heat has never fallen just right to include Aug. 24, even in 1983, when Aug. 20-22 were 104, 105 and 104. There's a good chance the record will be tied or exceeded today as heat builds back into our area after a mid-80s break on a mostly cloudy Thursday. The record high for Aug. 25 is also nothing special, 95 set in 1993, and it is quite likely to fall as Saturday is poised to make a surge toward 100. Also curiously, this is a rare day when the record highs for Roanoke and Blacksburg are the same. Blacksburg's record high for Aug. 24, 93, was set in that blisteringly hot year of 1983. Blacksburg probably won't quite make it to a record today. A little more heat, then a pattern changePosted Aug23, 2007 at 05:55 PMToday's high of 86 in Roanoke was only the second day in 23 so far this month we failed to reach 90. The next two days, with high pressure building overhead again and less in the way of marine-type low clouds and fog, promise to be very hot. I wouldn't rule out 100 on Saturday. 
We've got a few miles to go before we sleep on that. Today's somewhat cooler high chopped less than half a degree off our monthly average high and overall temperature, while our average low didn't budge much on another muggy night in the 70s. We're 1-2 degrees above the reigning record on each of those averages. Can we piece together enough low 80s highs and 60s lows next week to keep us from rewriting the monthly record book? I don't think we can, but I've been wrong many times in this very hot August. It's struggling to reach 80 todayPosted Aug23, 2007 at 12:05 PMLow clouds with a mass of slightly cooler, moist air from the northeast banked against the mountains are holding temperatures way down today. Unlike many recent days when it has been in the 90s at noon, Roanoke is only at 77. It's just a matter of how long these clouds can hold in. If they hold in all day, we might have our first below-normal high temperature of the month -- our normal high this time of year is in the mid 80s. If the sun breaks out fairly soon, we would still have a chance to make 90. It still looks like the next couple of days will be a return to much-above-normal temperatures as high pressure rebuilds, but there are increasing signs that a total break from the hot pattern may be in the works late next week or near the Labor Day weekend. 90, yet again -- Is there any relief in sight?Posted Aug22, 2007 at 05:39 PMRoanoke barely made it to 90, but it was enough for the 21st day out of 22 this month at or above 90 degrees. With the upper-level ridge building back, it's quite likely we'll make it 24 of 25 days by Saturday. It'll take some cooler-than-normal days next week to keep this from being the hottest month on record in Roanoke. Major cooling next week seems doubtful, but long-term, as this Climate Prediction Center 8-14-day map shows, there may be some relief by early September as cooler-than-normal temperatures are forecast in the central U.S. and near-normal temperatures in the East, with the heat shifting out west. Showers stymie the heatPosted Aug22, 2007 at 02:09 PMCount yourself blessed if you got in on some of the showers and thunderstorms today. There was a pretty nice rain for about half an hour in south Roanoke County late this morning, but it looked like much less fell on the north side of the Roanoke Valley. Still, showers and clouds are holding temperatures down. After peaking at 88, it appears unlikely Roanoke will hit 90 today, which would be on the second day this month that the high failed to reach 90. But there's still a couple more hours for the sun to come out and pump the temperature up before we can declare that for sure. A hope for rain?Posted Aug22, 2007 at 10:13 AMAn area of rain and thunderstorms in West Virginia, crossing into far western Virginia, that is being fired along a stationary front could bring some meaningful rain to some parts of Southwest Virginia this afternoon, potentially including the Roanoke and New River valleys, if it can hold together and continue moving southeastward. It could also slow or stop the upward climb of our temperatures today. A new day, another high in the 90s?Posted Aug22, 2007 at 01:23 AMLet's see today if some scattered soil-wetting rain on Tuesday and the threat of a few more showers and thunderstorms with a meandering front just north of us can keep temperatures from running past the forecasted low 90s for Roanoke. My bet would still be on about the mid 90s. The record for Aug. 22 is again almost certainly out of reach -- 104 in 1983. With an average high so far of about 95, an average low of 70 and overall average of 82, this month is looking like a runaway winner for the hottest month on record in all three categories. It will probably take some unseasonble cool next week to stop this runaway train. That doesn't appear to be likely. The heat turns angry, puffs out some big stormsPosted Aug21, 2007 at 05:11 PMLots of wind damage reports are pouring in from afternoon thunderstorms, mostly east of Roanoke. You can peruse the reports from Virginia on the National Weather Service's Public Information page, linked here, or from Virginia and elsewhere on the Storm Prediction Center's severe reports, linked here. 
There were some television reports that some people may have seen a tornado in the Forest-Lynchburg area. I can't vouch for that one way or the other, but I did notice a couple of lowerings on these storms that may have indicated some weak rotation as they neared the parkway.  In any event, quite a stormy afternoon with lots of heat to fuel it. Roanoke's high hit 98 today before the gusts hit. A race between 100 degrees and big stormsPosted Aug21, 2007 at 02:07 PMRoanoke has already gone as high as 97 degrees today ... but thunderstorms are firing toward the west, some severe, and moving our way. They should be moving through the New River Valley soon. We'll see whether the mercury can hit 100 today in Roanoke, or whether storms can cut the rising mercury off a few degrees short. It might make 100 and storm. Hurricane Dean pummels Mexican resort coastPosted Aug21, 2007 at 10:33 AMAs expected, Hurricane Dean slammed ashore this morning along the eastern coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 5 storm with 165 mph sustained winds ... making it the strongest storm to make landfall in 20 years. That's right, stronger than Andrew, and much, much stronger than Katrina, which was only a Category 3 hurricane (after weakening slightly from Category 5) when it made its devastating hit on Mississippi and New Orleans in 2005. You have to go back to Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 to find a stronger hurricane at landfall. Gilbert followed a similar track as Dean but slightly more northerly, directly running over Jamaica and striking the Mexican coast farther north near Cancun. More on the storm here from Associated Press. I will note down near the bottom of the story AP is reporting this as the third worst hurricane in Atlantic history based on central barometric pressure, trailing the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and Gilbert. They are forgetting that Hurricane Wilma in 2005 surpassed both of those storms in central pressure, so this would actually be the fourth worst storm. How hot can it get today?Posted Aug21, 2007 at 08:36 AMWe started the morning with a low cloud deck, but that already appears to be burning off over the Roanoke Valley. It was such a low cloud deck -- caused by cooler, moist breezes from the east banking against the Blue Ridge -- that helped keep Lynchburg's high below 90 on Monday while Roanoke shot up almost to 100. If the low clouds dissipate rapidly and we don't get a lot of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, I think there's a very good chance we'll shoot past the "around 90" in the National Weather Service forecast. It's just so dry and the ground is retaining so much heat, it won't take much sun to fire the mercury upward into the mid 90s -- especially if a downslope west wind kicks in like the forecasts are calling for. No record for Roanoke today -- this is the 24th anniversary of Roanoke's all-time record high, 105 on Aug. 21, 1983. Almost certainly not for Blacksburg, either, where today's record high of 98 was also set in 1983. It's never got to 100 in Blacksburg, at least since official weather records began there in 1953. The all-time record high of 99 dates to Aug. 23, 1983, and July 15, 1954. Dean stays away as Erin's remnants scrape byPosted Aug20, 2007 at 09:38 PMHurricane Dean is far out of our weather picture, but it will likely make a catastrophic hit on a portion of the Yucatan Peninsula coast in Mexico the next 24 hours. It's just shy of Category 5 status. The remnants of Tropical Storm Erin, which have contributed to widespread and deadly flooding in parts of the Midwest, are expected to drift just north of our area on Tuesday, interacting with a stalled front to cause thunderstorms and heavy rains in Ohio and Pennsylvania. We might get enough effects for an increase in thunderstorms on Tuesday, but it will still be a hot, sticky day that might push well into the 90s. Another blazing hot dayPosted Aug20, 2007 at 04:55 PMRoanoke reached a high temperature today of 99 -- hotter than expected, again, and another sign of how dry things are and how much heat is being retained by the surface from weeks of extremely hot weather. It's so easy to drive the temperature up right now. It's unlikely we'll set any records through Wednesday. That's because Aug. 20-22 was the 104-105-104 stretch in 1983. Blacksburg has at least tied a record this afternoon with a high of 92, equalling the record set there in 1988. Hot, sticky, tropical week aheadPosted Aug19, 2007 at 09:05 PMSaturday's day off from the 90s in Roanoke was just that -- 1 day off, and only 1 day. Today's high hit 96 in Roanoke, missing the record for the date by 1 degree (97 in 1983). Blacksburg tied its Aug. 19 record of 93, previously set in 1988. A warm front moved through the area and became stalled just north of us. That stalled front will play a role in our weather much of this week. This looks to be a hot, sticky week, as remnant moisture from what used to be Tropical Storm Erin drifts our way from the Plains states, where it has caused severe flooding in already-soaked Oklahoma. Here, it will not be anything close to that, but it will ramp up our chances of daily showers and thunderstorms. This week appears as if it will be neither quite as hot as last week -- some days will struggle to make 90 -- nor likely to produce the kind of rain needed to make a substantial dent in our drought. But we could a few dust-settling showers and some locally heavy downpours as hot, sticky weather settles in. Hurricane Dean is whipping Jamaica now and will be headed west toward Mexico and, if it gets a northwest bump, possibly Texas. It's remnant moisture may well exacerbate the flooding problems in Texas and Oklahoma even if it doesn't directly hit the Texas coast. For the latest on Hurricane Dean, click on the National Hurricane Center Web site. Run of 90s ends; focus shifts elsewherePosted Aug19, 2007 at 08:09 AMRoanoke only made it to 87 on Saturday, ending a run of 17 consecutive days at or above 90 degrees, tied for the second longest streak on record with a period in August 1959. The longest streak of 90s in Roanoke is 22 days, from June 23 to July 14 in 1966. The heat wave appears to be winding down in much of the South and Midwest, as most areas that were blazing above 100 cooled below the century mark on Saturday. The weather attention has shifted to the tropics, where Category 4 Hurricane Dean is closing in on Jamaica. See the National Hurricane Center Web site for the latest on Dean. 90-degree streak appears to be overPosted Aug18, 2007 at 03:21 PMWith a 3 p.m. temperature of 84 degrees in Roanoke, it appears unlikely that it will hit 90 degrees this afternoon, and if that's the case, our streak of 90-plus degree weather will end at 17. The urban heat island effect --- lots of concrete radiating heat -- kept Roanoke's official overnight low at the airport near 70 while many areas dropped into the 50s overnight. Another pretty cool night appears to be in store for Southwest Virginia, and perhaps even Roanoke will drop into the 50s. Changes are afootPosted Aug17, 2007 at 06:35 PMWe probably should call these "dry" fronts instead of cold fronts. The one that went through today is dropping our dew points. That will lead to a cool night with many areas dropping into 50s (closer to 60 in Roanoke), but Saturday's highs will warm quickly with bright sunshine in the dry air. The National Weather Service is saying we won't get out of the 80s on Saturday, but if it's like the last two similar events, the sun and the dry air could push it to 90 and extend our streak of 17 days at or above 90 in Roanoke. 
I think we're done with 100-degree stuff for this summer, but would doubt that we'll see an early appearance of fall like we did last year as the calendar turned from August to September. The hot, dry pattern may soon give way to a sticky, tropical pattern, but if that happens, hey, at least we'll get some rain and start easing the long-term dryness. 90s for the 17th day in a rowPosted Aug17, 2007 at 02:20 PMWe've been sitting at 92 in Roanoke the last couple of hours, but that's enough to make this the 17th day in a row we've hit at least 90 in the Star City. That ties the second longest streak on record, Aug. 12-28, 1959, and trails only the 22-day 90-plus streak of June 13-July 14, 1966. Lest you think we're the only ones that have been sweltering, here's an Associated Press article about the extent and severity of this August heat wave. |
