The chill is backPosted Sep29, 2007 at 06:03 PMA low of 48 this morning, a rather average high of 77 today and probably another similar temperature range on Sunday will ensure that this month does not go down as the warmest September on record. It will probably rank among the top dozen or so in the 59 years of official weather record-keeping at Roanoke Regional Airport, but won't finish as the hottest. Warm weather is still expected through most of the next two weeks. Check out the Climate Prediction Center forecast map. Finally, some cooler weather -- or at least less warmPosted Sep27, 2007 at 11:57 PMWe avoided 90 on Thursday in Roanoke, only reaching 87 -- still a full dozen degrees above normal. Bluefield, W.Va., experienced its fifth consecutive day of record high temperatures, reaching 83 after a week of sweltering late September weather. The cold front that has moved through will carve some numbers off the thermometer for the next several days. We might even see some nights back in the 40s, certainly the low 50s, with highs eventually falling back into the 70s. The long-term look for the next 2-3 weeks is still warm and dry, though. A stormy transition this eveningPosted Sep27, 2007 at 03:41 PMAs a cold front finally moves out some of this summerlike air this afternoon and evening, it may produce some springlike storms. In fact, a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect just north of our region in parts of West Virginia and central and northern Virginia. See where storms are firing now on National Weather Service-Blacksburg radar. Same hot song, 53rd versePosted Sep26, 2007 at 05:29 PMIt was yet another 90-degree day in Roanoke with a record-tying high of 91. That makes 53 days this year at or above 90, and 10 days this month, just one short of the September record. Thursday will have some chance to hit that mark even though it's expected to be just a few degrees cooler. Blacksburg nearly hit 90. Its high of 89 topped the old record for Sept. 26, 86, set in 1970. A cold front will bring somewhat cooler weather for the weekend. Yet another record blazing hot dayPosted Sep25, 2007 at 04:27 PMRoanoke's high temperature hit 93 degrees today, breaking the old record for the date of 92 set in 1970. It is the 52nd day this year that Roanoke has crossed 90, which is tied for the fourth most on record. Tropical storms Jerry and KarenPosted Sep25, 2007 at 01:23 PMTropical Storm Karen has formed in the Atlantic east of the Windward Islands. It's probably going to take a turn more out for the open water of the Atlantic, but still too far away to take our eyes off of entirely. Tropical Storm Jerry, we hardly knew ye. It developed over the weekend way out in the central Atlantic and strutted its hour upon the stage before poofing out in the last 24 hours. More on the Atlantic tropical season on the National Hurricane Center Web site. The official first day of fall is more like summerPosted Sep23, 2007 at 11:44 PMOK, I was wrong when I said the 90s were over earlier this month. Roanoke hit 90 today (Sunday), our 51st day at or above 90 in 2007. It was three degrees below the date's record high of 93 ste in 1970. Blacksburg's high of 88 set a new record for the date, breaking the old Sept. 23 record of 87 set two years ago. Expect two or three more days with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s ... possibly low 90s ... before cooler weather moves back in late in the week. Scraping close to 90 againPosted Sep23, 2007 at 12:31 AMAs expected, summerlike warmth has returned. Roanoke hit 89 on Saturday, and we might challenge 90 again the next three or four days, until a new cold front arrives. Fall is gonna struggle to get established. The long summer of 2007 wants to stretch on well into fall. Depression comes ashore without strengtheningPosted Sep21, 2007 at 08:34 PMTropical Depression 10 has moved ashore over the Florida Panhandle without strengthening into a tropical storm. It will bring some rain to parts of Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi and Louisiana as it continues moving west-northwest. Many of these areas need the rain, but it's not going to be a drought-buster. We probably won't see any rain from the system. The tropical storm/hurricane threat is mostly over for the Gulf coast, but forecasters will still keep an eye on the circulation center just in case it drifts back over the water. Depression goes tropicalPosted Sep21, 2007 at 02:20 PMAs of 1 p.m., the previous subtropical storm in the northeast Gulf of Mexico has obtained tropical characteristics and is known as Tropical Depression 10. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for much of the central Gulf coast, and the system is expected to become Tropical Storm Jerry by the evening. (It would be Karen if a central Atlantic system becomes a tropical storm first) Subtropical depression forms in Gulf of MexicoPosted Sep21, 2007 at 11:07 AMThe system that has been monitored the last couple of days as it moved west across Florida has become a subtropical depression in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. To refresh your memory, a subtropical system is one displaying characteristics both tropical in nature and those more like a regular low pressure system. The circulation is broader than a purely tropical system. It is expected to mature into a tropical storm later today, either Jerry or Karen depending on whether it or a circulation out in the central Atlantic develops into a storm first. The central Gulf coast will be affected by the storm. The next Atlantic tropical storm?Posted Sep19, 2007 at 06:59 PM
Warm and dry aheadPosted Sep19, 2007 at 12:21 AMBoth the 6-to-10-day and 10-to-14-day forecast maps from the Climate Prediction Center depict above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for our area. We'll start seeing our highs creep into the 80s possibly as early as Thursday. Ingrid goes kaputPosted Sep17, 2007 at 09:08 PMNot terribly surprising, Tropical Depression Ingrid (formerly a tropical storm) is dissipating east of the Windward Islands, far, far away from the U.S. The National Hurricane Center put out its last public statement on Ingrid at 5 a.m. today. Our coolest weather in months continuesPosted Sep17, 2007 at 10:05 AMRoanoke's high of 69 on Sunday was the first sub-70 high temperature since June 15 -- and cooler than our low temperature was two days last week. The high of 69 and low of 44 averaged to 11 degrees below normal, the farthest below normal our daily temperatures have been since April 10, back during the peach-killing cold snap. Temperatures this week will only slowly warm, with highs mostly in the 70s, and lows rising into the 50s after perhaps another night in the 40s tonight. We might get into the 80s by the weekend. I still think we've seen our last 90-degree day. A little bit nippy this Sunday morningPosted Sep16, 2007 at 09:09 AMJust three weeks and 12 hours after our last 100-degree afternoon, I had to put on my hooded sweatshirt to walk my dog this morning. It appears Roanoke's low has dipped as far as 44 -- not quite a record, which was 42 in 1984, but still 13 degrees below normal. Blacksburg has fallen to at least 39 -- the record there was 35 in 1985. At least one area city has set a new record low: Bluefield W, Va., fell to 39, breaking its old Sept. 16 record of 40 set in 1970, and is particularly notable since Bluefield has practically re-written its record book on the warm side for highs and lows in the past six weeks. Another night of chilly weather appears on tap tonight, with lows again in the 40s, with a few localized upper 30s, and temperatures will only gradually warm in the week ahead. Chill in the air -- where has summer gone?Posted Sep15, 2007 at 08:14 PMSunday morning will be by far the coldest we've experienced in Southwest Virginia since at least May. Roanoke's low is now forecast to reach the lower 40s. It hasn't been in the 40s since a low of 45 on May 19. (The last time it was in the 30s: a low of 39 on May 8). If the weather service forecast is on the money, the Sept. 16 record low of 42, set in 1984, could be challenged. Some deeper valleys in the New River Valley and points west could see some lows in the 30s with even scattered frost possible, according to a hazardous weather outlook from the National Weather Service. Several cities in the upper Midwest set record lows this morning, and frost and freeze warnings are up in the central and eastern Great Lakes area for tonight and Sunday morning. Where has summer gone? The turn in the thermometer is amazing considering how many different heat records we've set the last 6 weeks. Current Roanoke weather observations Updated rain totals for FridayPosted Sep15, 2007 at 12:14 AMBelow, in the extended entry, is a list of rain totals through 10 p.m. Friday for locations across much of Western Virginia and parts of Southside Virginia. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches were widespread, with heavier amounts of 2-8 inches in parts of Franklin, Henry and Patrick counties. The Roanoke Regional Airport ended up with just shy of an inch, at .91, but a couple of automatic gauges along the Roanoke River caught 1.4 and 1.2 inches, respectively, as you can see in the list. Though the rain didn't end the long-term drought for everyone, it was certainly what the doctor ordered to curb the dryness some. A nice rain for many, maybe a little too much for somePosted Sep14, 2007 at 06:47 PMThe extended entry below contains a long list of rainfall totals from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg as of 4 p.m. today. As you can see, the heaviest rain is generally to the south and east of Roanoke, where over an inch is common is Franklin and Henry counties, with 2-7 inches common across Patrick County. Roanoke and New River valley amounts have generally been 1/2 to 1 inch. Rain will continue off an on into this evening as a cold front sweeps through the area. Continue reading "A nice rain for many, maybe a little too much for some" » Some tornado threat not far to our southPosted Sep14, 2007 at 04:49 PM
Though even Franklin and Henry counties are in the area marked by the Storm Prediction Center, I don't really expect tornadoes to be an issue in our region this evening. We're just getting a darn good rain, though it has been a little too much at once down toward Patrick County. It's just interesting that the atmosphere, after a torrid stretch of stale summer, is starting to show some transitional season spunk. A soaking rain arrives in Southwest VirginiaPosted Sep14, 2007 at 10:59 AMNational Weather Service radar has become quite colorful over Southwest Virginia this morning. The low pressure system that is the remnant of Hurricane Humberto is moving through northern Alabama, where it is bringing copious rain to areas that are up to 2 feet below normal in rain for the year. It's also positioned perfectly to sweep in moisture both from the Gulf of Mexico and from the Atlantic against our higher terrain, which, along with an upper-level disturbance and an approaching strong cold front, is causing widespread rain moving up from North Carolina to Tennessee into Virginia and West Virginia. So much rain is falling that a flash flood warning has been issued for part of Patrick County along the Virginia-North Carolina border. Too much rain too fast on hard, dry ground can still cause localized flooding. According to the Drought Monitor map for Virginia issued Thursday, moderate drought encompasses all of Western Virginia south of Interstate 64, and severe drought has creeped northward as far as parts of southern Montgomery County and most of Franklin County. That deep red color on the far southwest tip of the state is exceptional drought, the highest level of drought. So this rainfall is highly welcome, and contrary to expectations a couple of days ago, may actually make at least a dent in the long-term drought. Widespread rain amounts of 1-2 inches can be expected as rain continues much of today and into tonight before a strong front originating from near the North Pole brings our first taste of fall temperatures for the weekend. Our best chance at a good rain in monthsPosted Sep14, 2007 at 12:18 AM
The updated rainfall forecast map (big version of inset linked here) from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center on Thursday evening shows widespread 1-inch-plus amounts over Southwest and Southside Virginia, aided some by upslope flow from the east ahead of the front and the circulation around what's left of Humberto. Parts of Alabama are jumping for joy about the rain from Humberto -- it's a little too much at once, granted, but when you're 1 to 2 feet behind normal for the year, and the ground is like talcum powder, you take what you can get. Compare the latest Drought Monitor map to the more colorful parts of the HPC rainfall map. So we'll get some needed rain and then also get a cool snap, as the front brings dry and a bit chilly Canadian air. Look for widespread 40s by Sunday morning, maybe a few upper 30s in the deepest mountain valleys to the west of I-81. It was 100 degrees in Roanoke just three weeks ago Saturday. Humberto hurriedly became a hurricanePosted Sep13, 2007 at 02:02 PMTo put this development in perspective - no tropical cyclone in the historical record has ever reached this intensity at a faster rate near landfall. It would be nice to know, someday, why this happened.-- Hurricane forecaster James Franklin, quoted in an Associated Press article. Humberto became the first hurricane to make U.S. landfall since Wilma crossed Florida in October 2005 this morning. The life cycle of this storm was simply amazing. Two days ago, it was a mass of clouds that forecasters thought might slowly develop. On Wednesday, it became a tropical depression and then intensified into a tropical storm. Shortly after midnight, Humberto's winds increased to 85 mph and it became a Category 1 hurricane before rolling into the Texas coast before dawn. Humberto, now weakening inland, is headed toward Mississippi and Alabama, which is actually great news for a region that is incredibly dry. Forecast models are beginning to show more of the moisture creeping up our way too, possibly between a half-inch and an inch for Friday according to the latest Hydrometeorological Prediction Center map. (The National Weather Service in Blacksburg is hinting at locally 2-3 inches in its afternoon forecast discussion.) While Humberto may bring welcome rain to parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, it has caused some unexpected hardship in Texas and Louisiana. Click here for the latest on the storm's impact from Associated Press. Humberto probably not a drought-breaker for usPosted Sep13, 2007 at 12:07 AM
Two new tropical systemsPosted Sep12, 2007 at 03:55 PM
Tropical Storm Humberto nears Texas Tropical Depression Eight has formed out in the central Atlantic and will probably become Tropical Storm Ingrid soon. We have a lot of time to watch this system. Front bringing needed rain, break in heatPosted Sep11, 2007 at 03:02 PM
Today's rain is most welcome, but it is still more of a dust-settler than anything that will make a dent in the long-term dryness. The stickiest September night of them allPosted Sep10, 2007 at 09:24 PMAs if we need to set some more heat records ... Roanoke's low of 75 this morning is poised to set not only the record for the warmest low for Sept. 10 (previous record: 70 in 1985), but also the warmest low for any September night on record (previous record: 74 on Sept. 7, 1998). The records will be set if we do not fall below 75 before midnight -- which seems unlikely with it 86 at 9 p.m. If some showers or storms move in, the temperature could fall below 75. But for now, those seem to be staying to the north. This morning's balmly low was in contrast to most mornings this month. Even though the afternoons have been hot, low dew points have helped morning lows fall into the low 60s most days this month. And the high temperature today did reach 90, the seventh straight day of 90-degree weather during this September annex to the August heat wave. I'm going to have to do a little poking in the record book to see if we've ever put that many 90-degree days together in September before. Only five Septembers on record since 1948 have had more than seven days at or above 90 in the entire month. 2007 became only the seventh year on record with 50 or more days at or above 90 in Roanoke today -- 1 in May, 7 in June, 8 in July, 27 in August and now 7 in September. Cooler weather is still coming later this week, I promise. I honestly believe today may have been the last day of 2007 to hit 90. The week ahead: Perhaps the heat will breakPosted Sep10, 2007 at 12:20 AMRoanoke's 92 on Sunday made the 6th consecutive day we've been at or above 90 this early September, and a total of 49 days at or above 90 for the year. Today could make an even 50; only 6 others years on record have had 50 or more days at 90 degrees or above. The last was 1977, when there were 55 such days, and the other 5 years were in the 1950s, led by the record of 65 days in 1953. But there are some large-scale things that suggest seasonal changes starting to occur, and we may see some effects of this as the week progresses. Over the next 2-3 days, a weak cold front may trigger some scattered showers and storms, and help nudge temperatures back into the 80s. Toward Wednesday or Thursday, we may get a high pressure nudging cooler air down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians -- similar to the "cold-air damming" common in winter -- and we might get some cooler, cloudy, even rainy days as warm Gulf moisture climbs over that cooler air. And then for the weekend, a strong cold front from Canada may provide the first real taste of fall, with highs likely sinking below 80 and lows dipping into the 50s, perhaps 40s in the deeper valleys. The summer heat wave is holding its ground, but ultimately it can't fight the changing of the seasons, as the sun angle gets lower and the days get shorter. Meanwhile, it's STILL hot ...Posted Sep08, 2007 at 11:59 PMRoanoke's high of 92 on Saturday tied the record for Sept. 8 set in 1985. It marked the 5th straight day of highs in the 90s, running our total of 90-or-above days for 2007 to 48. Going back to Aug. 1, 32 of our last 39 days have had highs at or above 90 in Roanoke. As we watch Tropical Storm Gabrielle dance away from us today, we'll likely see yet another day of 90-plus temperatures. The rest of this week, a cold front is going to try its best to uproot the heat, spawning showers and storms in the process. We might even see a sub-80 high by late in the week or next weekend. Gabrielle gains tropical storm statusPosted Sep08, 2007 at 05:43 PMThough Gabrielle's winds have actually decreased slightly to 40 mph, its overall characteristics are more tropical in nature, and so Gabrielle has been declared a tropical storm rather than a subtropical storm. It is expected to move through the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Sunday and then curve out to sea -- likely keeping its rain well away from our dry ground. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Outer Banks area, with a Tropical Storm Watch northward toward the Virginia Tidewater area. Click here for the latest on Gabrielle from the National Hurricane Center Gabrielle is born -- but she's only SUBtropicalPosted Sep08, 2007 at 12:03 AMThe National Hurricane Center has upgraded the storm in the Atlantic off the East Coast to Subtropcial Storm Gabrielle. I've never quite figured out why the hurricane center blows names from its list on subtropical storms -- but what it means is that the storm in question has some characteristics of a tropical system but, at this time, is more like a regular low pressure system fueled by differences in air masses rather than strictly by the evaporative heat of ocean water. Gabrielle could still lose the "sub" and become a tropical storm before scraping the Carolinas early next week. If it follows its forecast track, it probably won't be much of rain-maker for us -- in fact, we would be in the "subsidence zone" of sinking air around the system, and would stay high and dry. Still some time for any or all of this to change. |
