October finishes as second warmest on recordPosted Oct31, 2007 at 10:56 PMWednesday's high of 69 and low of 34 in Roanoke brought the average temperature for the month of October to 63.6 degrees, making it the second warmest October on record. The hottest October was in 1984 when the temperature averaged 64.3 degrees. The normal October average temperature is 56.5 degrees, so this October was more than 7 degrees above normal. A year ago, October's average temperature was 55.4 degrees, more than a degree below normal. Only nine Octobers have averaged above 60 degrees since weather records began being kept at Roanoke Regional Airport in 1948. Counting the one just completed, only two of those have occurred in the last 22 years. Tropical Storm Noel will brush by FloridaPosted Oct31, 2007 at 06:16 PM
November may give us some chillsPosted Oct30, 2007 at 10:19 PM
When the Climate Prediction Center map shows a likelihood of below normal temperatures (see Tuesday's 6-10-day and 8-14-day forecast maps) for November, that can mean pretty chilly stuff. While the forecast maps also show it to be quite dry, I certainly wouldn't rule out the "s" word re-entering some area forecasts if there are a day or two of northwest winds whipping over the mountains, getting the upslope going with a dab of moisture off the very unfrozen Great Lakes. But ... I'm getting ahead of myself. Deadly tropical storm expected to miss U.S.Posted Oct29, 2007 at 04:54 PMThe Atlantic tropical season is largely forgotten by Americans, but it's not gone. Tropical Storm Noel has dumped a ton of rain on some Caribbean nations, but it appears likely to be turned northeastward by the same cold front that has brought us the frosty mornings. As a result, Noel is expected to miss the U.S., and probably will never be a hurricane, anyway. It's been deadly for Haiti though ... click here for the latest from The Associated Press. Widespread freeze, frost ends growing seasonPosted Oct29, 2007 at 12:21 PMThe National Weather Service in Blacksburg notes that temperatures fell to freezing and widespread frost occurred from the Blue Ridge westward overnight, so the growing season has ended in those areas. Even the official temperature at the Roanoke Regional Airport fell to 32 degrees this morning. Frost and freeze warnings will not be issued the remainder of this year for the areas where the growing season has ended, but a freeze warning is up for areas south and east of Roanoke where temperatures were a little warmer last night but likely to go to 32 or below tonight. Click here for the latest from the National Weather Service. For Roanoke, the latest first freeze on record was in 2002 when it did not occur until Nov. 19. The earliest first freeze was in 1994 when it occurred on Oct. 1. Last year's first freeze was on Oct. 15. Freeze watch upgraded to a freeze warningPosted Oct28, 2007 at 09:12 PMMost of Western Virginia along and west of the Blue Ridge is under a freeze warning tonight as temperatures are expected to drop to near the freezing mark. It might get even a little colder on Monday night. Roanoke often has a way of staying a little warmer than the surrounding countryside because of the "urban heat island" effect, so mid 30s might be a reasonable expectation in the more urban parts of the Roanoke Valley come Monday morning. If the temperature does get to 32 or below, it would be about a week later than our 60-year average for first freeze, but right on time for the last 10 years -- Oct. 29 has been the average first freeze date since 1997. Click here for Roanoke's current and last-24-hour observations Click here for cities across the region For the latest freeze advisories, click on the National Weather Service current events page. Here's a change of pace: A freeze watchPosted Oct27, 2007 at 05:20 PM
There is some sign that colder air could make a bigger move on us a little more than a week out. We'll come back to that. The almost-final rainfall totalsPosted Oct26, 2007 at 11:04 PMSome light rain and drizzle will continue for a few more hours, but the bulk of this major 3-day rain event is in the record books. In the extended entry below is a list of unofficial rainfall tallies from around the area. Looks like Snow Creek remained on top, with just over 11 inches since Wednesday. 4 to 8 inches seems to be common. Sounds more like snowfall totals than rain, doesn't it? I'm skeptical about a few of these, like the Blacksburg NWS reporting 3.52 and Virginia Tech Airport getting 1.87, when they are right across the street from each other. Again, these are unofficial and will need some fine tuning and double-checking later. End of rain is in sightPosted Oct26, 2007 at 05:02 PM
I'll have some updated totals later this evening. Snow Creek in Franklin County has reached 10 inches. Most rainfall amounts in Southwest and Southside Virginia are 3 to 6 inches. Flood watch as deluge interrupts droughtPosted Oct26, 2007 at 12:02 PMWe're still going to be many inches below normal when the rain ends late tonight or Saturday, but that doesn't mean we can't have too much in a short period of time. With that possibility in mind, the National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a flood watch for much of Southwest and Southside Virginia through this evening. The current rainfall event has topped 4 inches throughout the Roanoke Valley and ranges upward to above 8 inches in some counties to the south. Additional rain of 2 to 3 inches may occur through this evening, and some of it could come down in heavy downpours as moisture continues to stream northward in a persistent band being pulled by the slow-moving low pressure area to our west. For the latest on the rain, click on the National Weather Service current events page and on local Doppler radar. Another rainy day on the wayPosted Oct25, 2007 at 10:30 PMRain will again fall across Southwest Virginia on Friday,and possibly with some gusto as a warm front backs into the area from the south and east and then a cold front moves through behind that to finally push the rain east by Saturday. The whirligig low pressure system that has been the cause of this drought-defying dampness is finally on the move ... it drifted from Alabama to near Memphis on Thursday and will move north and then east Friday through the weekend. But it will still be in prime position to pull yet more dense moisture across our area on Friday. Once again I have attached unofficial rainfall amounts from around the area, as of 10 p.m. Thursday, on the extended entry below. Follow the latest on National Weather Service-Blacksburg's current event page and on its local Doppler radar. Rain totals keep growingPosted Oct25, 2007 at 10:32 AMAt the bottom in the extended entry is a public information statement from the National Weather Service at Blacksburg listing unofficial storm total rain amounts across Southwest and Southside Virginia in a 35-hour period ending at 7 a.m. today. Most amounts are 2-3 inches, but some exceed 4 inches and even top 5 inches in parts of Franklin and Henry counties. The 2.16 inches of rain that fell at Roanoke Regional Airport through midnight is the most that has fallen in one calendar day since June 26, 2006, when 4.08 inches fell as part of a 6-day period of rain that produced 7 inches. It should be noted, however, that Wednesday's rain total was only .01 inch more than what fell on Nov. 16, 2006. And the rain keeps falling. Everything has set up pretty much perfectly for continued rain today, tonight and likely most of Friday and possibly into Saturday. The stalled upper-level low over Alabama is now drawing a continous fetch of Atlantic moisture from southeast to northwest across the area. That is perfect to produce upslope effects as the moisture is drawn across higher terrain and condensed, and also overrunning effects as warm, moist air is drawn over cooler air that has settled in at the surface. Throw in a stalled frontal boundary just to the south and occasional upper-level impulses, and the stage is set for almost continuous light rain with occasional moderate rain and maybe a few heavier periods of rain, though probably not as many heavy periods as occcured on Wednesday. The National Weather Service in Blacksburg is projecting another 2 1/2 to 3 inches of rain will fall by Saturday in Roanoke, with some heavier amounts to the south. For the latest on the rain event, click here on the the weather service's current event page. Also keep an eye on National Weather Service radar. A lot more rain where this came fromPosted Oct24, 2007 at 06:43 PM
Bullseye: Southwest Virginia and Northwest N.C. Each of those maps is showing multiple inches of rain, to the tune of 4-6 inches for most areas of Southwest Virginia by the weekend. Such a period of rain would do a lot toward refilling reservoirs and soaking the dry topsoil, but it will be only temporary help for the long-term drought if we don't get more rain following up on it in coming weeks. The Climate Prediction Center's long-range maps (click here for 6-10-day and 8-14-day precipitation maps) don't look too good for that right now. 
Low pressure sits and spins over Southeast This low simply doesn't have anything pushing it anywhere, as it has become separated from the jet stream. It will spin and spin and spin until it spins itself out or finally gets bumped somewhere, perhaps northeastward for the weekend. We'll get a continuous fetch of moisture until it moves significantly. Under normal circumstances, we would have a major flooding threat. With things so dry, there is still a flash flooding threat as heavy rains run off (flash flood warnings have been is,ssued for Franklin and Henry counties this evening) but widespread river flooding is not likely unless we get enormously more than expected. So this could be just the drought-easing rainfall the doctor ordered, but still more of a treatment than a cure. The latest on the rainfall event from the National Weather Service in Blacksburg Squalls produce heavy rain, tornado warningsPosted Oct24, 2007 at 04:36 PMFor the second time today, counties to the southeast of Roanoke are under a tornado warning, this time for parts of Henry, Franklin and Pittsylvania counties (cancelled shortly after 5 p.m.) Pittsylvania County was under a warning earlier today. Doppler radar is picking up some significant rotation in some of the squall-like bands in the warmer air just to our southeast. Meanwhile, squall-like rains have been rolling into Roanoke the last couple of hours. Some locations in the Roanoke Valley have already had more than an inch of rain. Click here for a look at current rain totals and projected rain totals through Saturday. Showers, storms on the increasePosted Oct24, 2007 at 11:06 AMShowers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage across Virginia and North Carolina currently. Some storms have even become severe, with a tornado warning in Pittsylvania County. Roanoke, so far, is between two main areas of rain, but expect that to close up some as the afternoon progresses. We'll see if this becomes a steady rain or occasional showers. When is the last time you saw this?Posted Oct23, 2007 at 04:38 PMThe National Weather Service forecast for Roanoke, Roanoke County and Salem is calling for a 70 percent chance of rain each time period from tonight through Friday. Then it drops off for Saturday ... to 60 percent. A much-needed soggy Wednesday on tap?Posted Oct23, 2007 at 10:41 AMThe upper-level low spinning in place over the south-central U.S. is already pulling up abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture over our region, and we've already had a few showers. On Wednesday, as the low drifts eastward some, it may also pull in a southeasterly fetch off the Atlantic. According to the latest Hydrometeorological Prediction Center rainfall forecast map for Wednesday, our location in the mountains will be ideally suited to catch generous rainfall. Still, at this point, I'd take forecasts of more than 2 inches of rain with a few shakers of salt. Raining where they need it -- but not in CaliforniaPosted Oct22, 2007 at 11:33 PM
Meanwhile ... southern California is burning as raging Santa Ana winds from the desert compress through narrow valleys across landscape that is parched even under normal rainfall circumstances, and therefore much more of a tinderbox now that the Southwest has also been experiencing drought. Click here for the latest from Associated Press. Big drought help may be on the way this weekPosted Oct20, 2007 at 11:07 PM
Something like that appears increasingly likely to happen, and it looks like it could be great news not only for our dry region, but even more parched areas of Alabama and Georgia. Upper level wind energy is expected to move southeastward in a diving jet stream with enough vigor to "cut off" a low pressure system over the south-central U.S. (think Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, somewhere in there). What this means is that a counter-clockwise spin in the atmosphere is likely to become separated from the jet stream and meander rather aimlessly for a few days before eventually tracking ever so slowly to the northeast. The location of this slow-moving spinner will be just right to pump moisture from the Gulf of Mexico across the Southeast, Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic states. With a slow-moving cold front (of mild Pacific origin, not a chiller from the Arctic) as a trigger, this scenario is likely to lead to widespread rain that could occur for several days in some of the driest regions of the country. As the 5-day rainfall forecast map from the Hydrometoerological Prediction Center shows, the heaviest rain (up to 6 inches) is expected slightly west of most of the driest areas, as depicted by the Drought Monitor map. But computer model runs have continued to subtly shift the heavier rain farther east, and even areas east of the rainfall bulleye are shown getting much more than an inch or more of rain. The blue colors over Virginia indicate at least .75 inch of rain, with more than an inch in some areas. Expect Sunday to be a sunny day and very warm for this time of year, possibly 80 or higher. Roanoke's record for Oct. 21 is 83, not entirely out of the question. The normal high for this time of year is 67. Rain will be breaking out in the states to our west on Monday and some showers may creep close Monday night. But it's the Tuesday through Thursday period that holds the best threat of an multi-day rain threat in many months, Depending on the exact placement and track of the low, it even has some chance to make a serious dent in our foot-plus rainfall deficit. At this point, it appears like states to our west will reap the biggest benefits, but we could get some rewards, too. Probably not a lot of rainPosted Oct18, 2007 at 06:26 PM
Long term, it still looks to get much cooler in the 1-2-week time frame -- check out this Climate Prediction Center 6-10-day outlook map. Looking more like spring than fallPosted Oct17, 2007 at 12:43 AMIt's been summer for a very long time and it's trying to be fall. But the next few days, the weather map across the United States will look more like fall as a strong low drags a Pacific cold front across. This will trigger a round of severe storms today in the Plains states, moving into the upper Midwest for Thursday. By Friday, rain and thunderstorms will be on our doorstep. Follow the latest severe weather expectations on the Storm Prediction Center's Web site. Cold weather ahead later this month?Posted Oct15, 2007 at 05:05 PMIt's a bit early to talk of this as a certainty, but there are increasing signals of a major pattern change later this month. The Climate Prediction Center is now showing most of the eastern two-thirds of the nation with a heightened chance of below-normal temperatures in the 8- to 14-day period. (Click here for map) Somewhat above-normal temperatures are likely most of the rest of this week, with highs maybe scraping 80 on Tuesday and again poking up late in the weekend and early next week. We stand a decent chance of seeing some rain later this week. More on that later. It's cooler, but not any wetterPosted Oct13, 2007 at 11:41 PMThe drought drags on. The Roanoke Valley is officially in severe drought according to the National Drought Mitigation Center. Exceptional drought touches far southwest Virginia. Roanoke is 13 inches below normal in precipitation. The long-term prognosis is not good. There doesn't seem to be any atmospheric mechanism developing anywhere that can give us the kind of repeated rains we will need to crawl out of this rainfall deficit. The drought center is expecting drought to persist through the winter in our area, as this map shows. Ice around south pole a different storyPosted Oct13, 2007 at 05:33 PMToday in Weather Journal, I wrote about the record low level of ice concentration around the north pole. But interestingly, the University of Illinois Polar Research Group is also reporting that the ice concentration around the south pole has reached a record maximum. Granted, it only goes back to 1979, but it's very interesting that ice around one pole has shrunk to a record low while ice around the other pole has reached a record high. Remember, it is early spring following a long winter at the south pole. Other than the seasonal extremes, I have no explanation for the contrast between the poles. A few hours away, it snowedPosted Oct12, 2007 at 04:26 PMSnowshoe Mountain in West Virginia saw its first snowflakes of the season on Thursday afternoon. No snow in Virginia, but it was raining with temperatures in the upper 30s at Hot Springs for part of last night. Autumn returns for a few daysPosted Oct10, 2007 at 11:14 PMAfter summer dragged into overtime the past few days, there will be no doubting that fall is in the air for the next few days. Temperatures on Thursday will struggle to get out of the 50s in the Roanoke and New River valleys, 30 or more degrees colder than what we experienced Sunday through Tuesday. Gusty winds will whip a few leaves off the trees, and nighttime lows in the upper 30s and low 40s may encourage the foliage to turn a few colors (this after I saw new dandelions pushing up through the grass early this week, like it was already April). The unseasonably warm air will likely return by late next week, with highs again reaching the 80s. But for a few days at least, it will actually be autumn in the middle of autumn. Oct. 10 much different in 2007 than in 1979Posted Oct10, 2007 at 09:39 AMOct. 10 is likely to be our last day of above-normal temperatures for a while, and almost certainly the end of record heat. This day 28 years ago was much different across Virginia. Oct. 10, 1979, marks the earliest measurable snowfall on record in many central and northern Virginia localities, with Roanoke having been on the south edge of the accumulating snow. Roanoke recorded three-tenths of an inch of snow that day, enough to whiten the ground and coat the trees. Locations farther north in Virginia got much more snow, with 2 to 4 inches common and some areas getting a half-foot or more. Big Meadows, high on the ridgetop in Shenandoah National Park, collected 17 inches of snow from that early-season storm. Nothing like that is on our horizon, but a day or two later this week might struggle to get out of the 50s. That's right, I said 50s. It's 90 degrees yet againPosted Oct09, 2007 at 01:32 PMRoanoke's 1 p.m. temperature is 90 degrees. The record high for the date has been crushed, but more importantly, Oct. 9 is now the latest date for a 90-degree high on record in Roanoke. Also ... we've never before had three days at or above 90 in Roanoke during October. Record book re-arranged yet againPosted Oct08, 2007 at 11:38 PMWhen the high temperature hit 91 in Roanoke on Sunday, it was the latest in the year it had topped 90 since records began being kept at the airport in 1948. But that record only lasted until Monday, when another high of 91 set the new latest 90-degree standard at Oct. 8. It might happen yet again today (Tuesday). The daily record high of 86, set in 1958, seems certain to fall, but 90 is not out of the question. Blacksburg hit 87 each of the last two days, clobbering its old records for each date of 82 for Oct. 7 (1990) and 80 for Oct. 8 (1997). The good news (for most of you -- a few of you like the late heat) is that we have only one more day of summerlike heat before much cooler weather sets in with an approaching cold front. It may actually feel like October by the weekend. Hot-tober 2007 makes a run at historyPosted Oct06, 2007 at 09:12 PM
The Climate Prediction Center pinpoints an area of unseasonable heat |
