Getting out from under the wedgePosted Mar31, 2008 at 11:31 PMIt might feel as if we've all been under a cold, wet blanket the last couple of days. That is called a "wedge" ... a layer of cool, moist air at the surface that has been shoved by high pressure to the north against the eastern side of the Appalachians. It has slowly modified the last couple of days, rising from near freezing Sunday to the 40s on Monday. During the day Tuesday, the wedge will finally erode, and we'll shoot into the 60s ... just in time for a cold front to bring showers and storms and a slight cooldown. Most of the rest of the week looks fairly normal for early April, though, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Some more rain on the way, but not freezingPosted Mar30, 2008 at 11:37 PM
Temperatures will slowly warm Monday and then more quickly warm Tuesday. We will have a chance of rain each of the next two days, though it doesn't look like a lot is likely to fall. There could even be some thunderstorms by Tuesday evening as a new cold front approaches. The second half of the week looks drier and warmer. You've got to be kidding -- freezing rain?Posted Mar29, 2008 at 07:42 PM
A little nip, but not for longPosted Mar28, 2008 at 11:25 PMBoth days this weekend will start off a little cool, maybe even as low as the 30s, following a cold front passage. High pressure to the north will bank some cold, dry air along the east side of the mountains, which will mean temperatures will struggle to make the 50s even with bright sunshine Saturday and could hover in the low 40s on Sunday with increased clouds and the possibility of rain. But warmer air returns for early in the coming week, and this 8-14-day forecast map from the Climate Prediction Center shows, the trend is toward warmer than normal temperatures in the next couple of weeks. A little showery, maybe some rumblesPosted Mar28, 2008 at 11:02 AMA cold front will be pushing toward the area later today, but don't expect anything too dramatic. There will probably be a few showers, maybe even some thunder. Dew points on this side of the Appalachians are too low for much more than that. Rainfall expectations are currently less than a quarter-inch for most of us, maybe a few spots up toward half an inch, as this map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows. It will get a little cooler this weekend, with highs retreating from today's 60s and 70s back into the 50s, and lows at night into the 30s. It continues to look dryPosted Mar26, 2008 at 02:52 PM
The last flakes of the season?Posted Mar24, 2008 at 11:20 PMAbout 6:30 this evening I drove through a brief but rather intense snow shower in Southwest Roanoke County. A weak disturbance aloft allowed some puffy clouds to pop up as slight surface warming rose into cold air aloft ... almost like miniature versions of the random summer thunderstorms we get ... and these kicked out some spotty showers of rain and snow. I think these may very well be the last flakes the lower elevations see until late next fall -- higher ridgetops often see some snow into May. The upcoming couple of weeks looks pretty mild overall with occasional rain systems. Even if we get another run of cold air from Canada, it will be so late in the season that snow will be hard to come by anywhere below about 2,500 feet. It's spring, but it's a pretty slow-springing one. A warm day, but colder air headed our wayPosted Mar22, 2008 at 06:20 PMRoanoke's high was a springlike 72 today, but a cold front is moving in that will chill temperatures overnight into the next couple of days. By Monday, lows will be the in the 20s and highs will be in the 40s. There is still some chance of snow or a snow/rain mix late Sunday night and early Monday with a weak storm system moving through, which will likely intensify too late to be much of a factor for us beyond a few showers. This cold snap will not last long, with mild to warm temperatures likely again by late in the week. Potential winter storm looking wide right this timePosted Mar21, 2008 at 10:47 AMAfter an entire season of nearly every potential winter storm going wide left -- west of us, that is -- the Sunday-Monday low is looking to go wide right -- off the coast. For signficant snow to occur in late March or April, conditions usually have to be almost textbook perfect ... dense cold air forced southward by strong high pressure in Canada, a lot of moisture falling through that cold air, and a favorable time of day away from the most intense sunlight helps. This one is probably going to fall well short on the moisture end with the low heading off the coast. Some light snow or rain is possible Monday, but barring an unexpected shift in the pattern, probably no late-March snowstorm. Is a late-March snow in the offing?Posted Mar20, 2008 at 09:14 AMNext week is looking cold, as this map from the Climate Prediction Center shows. The pattern is shifting, at least for a few days, to one more conducive to forcing cold air our direction. What's more, there is an early-week storm system that we will have to keep an eye on for the potential to bring moisture into the cold air. Yes, there is some chance of snow around the Sunday-Monday timeframe. In any event, next week looks like it will be unseasonably cold, as winter tries to make a late return. Not rumbly, just rainy so farPosted Mar19, 2008 at 03:41 PMWith almost no sun peeking through the clouds today, the atmosphere has not become as destabilized as it could have been with a little surface warming, so it appears we are missing the potential thunderstorms and getting a decent steady rain instead, with a few heavier downpours. It is possible we could see a squall line move through tonight as the cold front pushes through. Expect 1/2 to 1 inch amounts to be common with some locally heavier totals. Click here for the latest National Weather Service radar. We will also likely be spared the extremely torrential downpours that have hit states west of us, where near-historic flooding is occurring on many rivers after up to a foot of rain fell on the Arkansas and Missouri Ozarks on Tuesday. More on that from the Associated Press. It could get a little rumbly before Wednesday is throughPosted Mar18, 2008 at 11:29 PMThe heaviest rain certainly did go well west of us, and though we need help for our long-term dryness, it's a good thing for our local interests. Parts of Missouri and Arkansas have been inundated with 6-10 inches of rain and, as of this writing late Tuesday night, it's still pouring down. We will see a cold front push some rain toward our region during the day Wednesday. With daytime temperatures possibly warming close to 70 degrees, the atmosphere could become unstable enough for thunderstorms, a few of which could be severe. We are in the Storm Prediction Center's slight risk of severe weather for Wednesday, mainly for the threat of gusty winds. Certainly, this is our most significant threat of strong thunderstorms we've had yet this season. Heaviest rain likely to go well west of us this weekPosted Mar17, 2008 at 10:25 AMAs this 5-day rainfall projection map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows, the heaviest rain this week is expected to travel far to the west of us, with rather meager amounts in our neck of the woods. Wednesday and Thursday may however produce the first pretty high chance of widespread thunderstorms across the area this spring. Between now and then, expect a couple of sunny days with chilly mornigns and high temperatures around 60. A pretty wimpy rainPosted Mar15, 2008 at 11:01 PMWhen the last drop has fallen later tonight, it looks like Roanoke will have gotten about a quarter inch total out of two days of intermittent rain -- a pretty paltry sum compared to what is needed and what had been expected with this system early in the week. A more powerful storm at midweek appears as if it will focus its heaviest rain west of us, though we will likely get something out of that, maybe even thunderstorms. We still need the rain, but in the meantime enjoy a couple of fairly mild, mostly dry March days until we see what the mid-week storm will do with itself. Don't be fooled: That rain is still comingPosted Mar15, 2008 at 12:45 PMWe've seen some sunshine this morning through some breaks in the clouds, but a band of rain, some of it heavy, is headed eastward through Kentucky, as this radar shot from a few minutes ago shows. The heaviest rain and certainly the stronger storms will go south of us, but don't be surprised to hear a rumble or two of thunder and get a healthy gust or two as this blows in later today. Possible tornado hits downtown AtlantaPosted Mar14, 2008 at 10:59 PMIt appears that a tornado moved through downtown Atlanta tonight, hitting the CNN Center and the Georgia Dome with a Southeastern Conference tournament basketball game in progress. More from CNN's Web site and from the Associated Press. Yes, tornadoes can hit the centers of major metropolitan areas. Nashville, Miami, Salt Lake City, Fort Worth and Little Rock have experienced tornadoes near their city centers in the past 10 years. Two shots at major soaking rains aheadPosted Mar13, 2008 at 03:52 PM
Some more needed rain ahead?Posted Mar12, 2008 at 10:07 AMProspects look pretty good for rain the next few days as a storm system develops Friday and Saturday that will probably bring some rounds of rain to us. In case you're wondering about the drought situation, the Drought Monitor map shows that it's still quite severe over states to our south but the overall area is smaller. Forecasters are holding out some hope, as this map shows, that there will be drought help over the next few months. A fairly typical March week aheadPosted Mar10, 2008 at 09:06 AMThough we'll get a couple of cold fronts through, including one tonight, it looks like lots of days in the 50s and 60s, nights in the 30s (for Roanoke; colder in many outlying areas) with a couple of shots of showers, maybe snow showers in the higher elevations. All in all, typical March weather as we slip toward spring. It's about to turn windy and coldPosted Mar08, 2008 at 12:11 PMThe mildish morning is about to turn more wintry as a cold front pushes through, bringing strong northwest winds and falling temperatures to the area. High wind warnings are out for a few counties, and wind advisories for others. Don't be surprised to see a few raindrops or snowflakes flying through the air. The week ahead looks colder than normal with another potential storm system toward week's end. Once again, it looks at this early stage as if the snowy part of the storm will be west of us, but could be another close call. It is getting late in the season, too, so even when it's relatively cold, it will be getting harder and harder for the atmosphere to line up perfectly for wintry precipitation. Looks like another beneficial rain in drought areasPosted Mar07, 2008 at 08:54 AMThis morning's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center rainfall map shows a large area of 1-plus inches of rain through many Southeast and mid-Atlantic states that desperately need it ... including Virginia. And yes, the snow is staying well west of us, again. The early call: Snow goes west of us againPosted Mar05, 2008 at 10:45 AMAt this point, it appears that a new low pressure system for Friday and Saturday will track far enough inland that the significant snow will pass west of us, which has pretty much been the way this winter has gone. This snowfall map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center illustrates the most likely area heavier snow. But it is closer than many of the previous systems, and will need to be monitored for any forecast changes that could jog this storm slightly eastward. That hasn't been the trend this winter, though -- most storms have ended up farther west than the early forecasts show. Some strong storms possible, but worst will go southPosted Mar04, 2008 at 12:14 AMSome heavy rain and strong storms are possible later today as a strong low drags a cold front into warmth and moisture parkved over the area. Rainfall amounts will likely be near an inch in many areas, as this map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center depicts, while the greater risk of severe weather will be farther south in the Carolinas. This Storm Prediction Center map shows the percent chance of a storm passing within 25 miles of any given point. UPDATE 11 AM TUESDAY: Parts of the eastern Carolinas have a moderate risk of severe weather today with a heightened tornado risk. Our area is under a slight risk mainly for a threat of gusty winds with some storms. Severe storms and heavy rain a possibility on TuesdayPosted Mar03, 2008 at 12:39 AMAs you can see from this map courtesy of the Hydrometeorlogical Prediction Center, the forecast track of this week's strong low pressure system is to the northwest of our area. This is a prime track to draw up abundant Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture and warmth into our area. With winds aloft blowing in different directions and a cold front moving into the warmth, thunderstorms are possible, some of which could be severe. This map from the Storm Prediction Center shows our region at the edge of a slight risk of severe weather for Tuesday. The Friday-Saturday period is still a big question mark for winter weather potential. Cold air will be in place, and some disturbances may move along a stalled front just to our east. Some of these could swing some moisture back in our region for a chance of snow. At this point, this could go either way -- either nothing at all with systems moving out to sea, or it could develop much stronger into a bigger storm. We stil have Tuesday's rain and storms to consider before we even get to that. An early look at next week's storm systemPosted Mar01, 2008 at 12:02 AM
As it looks now, this low will help pump in mild, moist air early in the coming week, then drag the cold front through Tuesday, squeezing out heavy rain and thunderstorms. Southeast winds being pulled into the low could produce an upslope effect on the Blue Ridge, intensifying rainfall. It's a little too early to get into those kind of details, as the path isn't entirely settled, but it does seem that barring a monumental change in the strong high pressure system off the coast, this will be an "Appalachian runner" storm, moving far enough inland to keep us out of a snowstorm threat. The mountains just west of us, though, may get nailed by heavy wet snow as the storm passes by and the cold air gets pulled in. There's still a few days to watch this storm and even more to watch another potential storm about Friday or Saturday of next week. The overall forecast for the 6-10 day period, as shown by the Climate Prediction Center, is for colder than normal temperatures and wetter than normal conditions. So the next 10-14 days or so may be winter's last stand in 2007-08. If the snow lovers are going to be satisfied, it'll have to happen soon. |
About this blog
Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States." .....Advertisement.....
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