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Weather Journal

with Kevin Myatt

The Atlantic tropical season has already begun

Posted May31, 2008 at 08:58 PM

Never mind the "offiicial" start of the season on Sunday, June 1. A weak tropical storm, named Arthur, formed today just off the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and moved inland. So we're under way in what is expected to be a busy tropical season in the Atlantic. Remember that a busy Atlantic season doesn't guarantee that anything will hit the U.S., and a relatively inactive season can still allow a violent hurricane or two to strike the U.S. And even if multiple hurricanes do hit the U.S., there is no guarantee that we in Southwest Virginia will feel any effects, including still much-needed rainfall.

Severe weather threat focused elsewhere in Virginia

Posted May31, 2008 at 05:11 PM

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Tornado watches now cover all of Virginia except here in the southwest. One factor that will likely keep thunderstorm develop minimized across our area today is the westerly downslope wind. Winds blowing down the eastern side of the mountains tend to dry out the air and suppress convection. Dew points are in the upper 50s and low 60s in Southwest Virginia right now ... we can sometimes get some pretty big storms out of that kind of moisture, under the right conditions, but not as easily as with the upper 60s and lower 70s dew points farther east. In the tornado watch area, winds blowing out of the south and southwest may be able to give the storms that develop there a little bit of a turn, so some hail, high winds and isolated tornadoes are possible, hence the tornado watch. The stronger wind dynamics throughout the atmosphere are much farther north, in the tornado watch that was issued earlier today for northern Virginia. In Southwest Virginia, don't be surprised to see a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two this evening as a cold front moves into the area. While some gusty winds or small hail are possible, a widespread severe weather episode appears increasingly unlikely for our immediate area.

Severe weather threat for Virginia on Saturday

Posted May30, 2008 at 08:34 PM

UPDATE NOON SATURDAY: A tornado watch is in effect for northern Virginia and surrounding states, as this statement and map from the Storm Prediction Center shows. We'll see how and if any of this threat spreads our way later today.

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Severe weather has been dogging the central U.S. for much of the last nine days. Some of that threat will extend eastward toward Virginia on Saturday as a cold front approaches the region. As the inset map shows, areas in red with a slightly higher risk of severe weather (30 percent within 30 miles of any given point), the higher chances of severe weather will be to the west and east of us. To the east, a weak area of low pressure developing east of the mountains might pull enough backed winds from the east to create some rotation that could lead to large hail, strong winds and perhaps a few tornadoes. We'll have to watch on Saturday to see where these storms begin developing, whether they will be along or just east of the Blue Ridge. A larger complex of storms from the west may affect Southwest Virginia late in the afternoon or in the evening, bringing a threat of gusty winds and some hail. Now that temperatures are climbing into the 80s and some moisture is returning, we shouldn't be surprised by occasional threats of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe from time to time.

Check the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service at Blacksburg on Saturday for the latest on severe weather threats in our area.

Wrapping up Storm Chase 2008

Posted May28, 2008 at 10:36 PM

It will take months to analyze the video and photos and digest all the experiences from Storm Chase 2008. But for the most part in this blog, I'm ending the discussion of it today. Compared to previous storm chases, this was certainly the most prolific of the four I've been a part of in terms of tornado production, and also in terms of truly powerful supercell thunderstorms. I think many of the storms we caught in 2007 were structurally more photogenic, but these were definitely more beast-like in sheer power.

So far, in regard to tornadoes, I've only posted photos of our major tornado intercept late on May 22. If you haven't already, click here to see video and an account of that day. I am also writing about that encounter in Friday's "Weather Journal" column for print. I don't have photos of all of our tornado sightings, which we conservatively count as nine over May 22-23, all in the same general area of west-central Kansas from WaKeeney and Quinter south to Ness City and Dighton.

The first tornado we caught didn't even have a full condensation funnel, but just a slight cone above and a swirl of dust in a field below.

This is a photo near the time of our second tornado, though maybe not exactly when it was on the ground. You can see the rounded, lowered structure from which it sprang ahead of us.

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Tornado develops west of Quinter, Kansas

Tornado No. 3 developed on a storm in between the first one we were chasing and the second we were planning to intercept. We had seen the lowerings and considered it to have potential, but considered it harder to reach between two other storms. Before heading south to the next storm, we watched a tornado develop west of Quinter, Kan., near a town called Grainfield. We were at some distance, but saw a cone dip down and eventually turn into more of a rope-like structure.

Two tornadoes developed in the storm we headed south to intercept southwest of WaKeeney. Tornado No. 4 was a white cone against a dark background. It doesn't look to be on the ground in the linked photo, but video shows a debris cloud at the surface, confirming touchdown.

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Dark funnel forms May 22 southwest of WaKeeney, Kansas.

Tornado No. 5 was a dark funnel against a dark background, a little hard to make out, but menacing. Here is another look at the same tornado a few minutes earlier. We encountered screaming east winds blowing into this storm as these tornadoes were going on. Both No. 4 and No. 5 were on the ground at the same time for a little while.

I don't have photos of the sixth and seventh tornadoes that formed in the same storm as it moved north of Interstate 70. We were on the move, and they were hard to see on a poor contrast background. We'll be looking at video and some of the other chasers' photos for these. The count could go up or down based on what we see in video.

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Tornado as seen from chase van south of WaKeeney, Kansas. Courtesy of Jordan Rollins.

Tornado No. 8 was the big intercept for us. The entry on my blog after that day and my Weather Journal column for May 30 best recount that, but here is one additional photo by Jordan Rollins showing the tornado out our front windshield. That's me taking a photo on the left.

Tornado No. 9 the next day was very large the next day, moving northeast near Ransom, Kan., on its way toward Ellis, but also very far away and very late. We still haven't found a great shot of it, but this video still frame showing part of it on the left gives you an idea of its size. We'll keep looking. (ADDED ON 6/2: Click here for a small video still from the wedge tornado ... and here's a second shot of the same wedge as well, which may even be multivortex with a couple of side funnels.)

In all we chased and caught supercell storms on 5 days: May 13 near Jacksboro in northern Texas; May 14 near Big Spring in western Texas (with additional video linked here); May 21 near Flagler in eastern Colorado (the prettiest storm, in my opinion); and of course May 22 and May 23 in and around WaKeeney, Kan.

Thanks to the wonderful group of chasers that joined us this year, shown here in a group photo at Palo Duro Canyon near Amarillo, Texas, during one of our many slow days between chases. From left to right, they are (bottom row) Jessica Burchard, Virginia Tech student; Sandy LaCorte, recent North Carolina-Asheville graduate (meteorologist!); Taylor White, Tech student; Marielle Taft, Walt Whitman High School student in Maryland; Morgan Weeks of Floyd, North Carolina-Asheville student; Jennifer Henderson, Tech instructor researching a book on tornadoes; (top row) Dave Carroll, Pulaski County High School meteorology teacher and trip leader; Joel Willis, Pulaski County High School student; Andrew Smith, Tech student; Trevor Owen, Tech student; me; and Jordan "J-Roll" Rollins, Tech student and National Guardsman.

For a little bit different perspective on our trip, check out the blogs kept by Taylor White and Sandy LaCorte.

America is in good hands with young people like these ... and with the many wonderful people who treated us so friendly in our travels. We were greeted everywhere we went, and many people, ranging from farmers to police to travelers to firemen, came to us seeking information about storms. God bless all of you.

Now ... let's turn back to local weather ... and there is actually a potential severe weather threat cropping up for Virginia come Saturday ... more on that as it develops ...

Re-trace Kevin's progress on this map.

For more on Storm Chase 2008, click here.


A bit of needed rain falling over Southwest Virginia

Posted May28, 2008 at 11:19 AM

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I wrote a little about how May was following the trend of most months the last two years in this morning's Weather Journal update in the Roanoke Times. Well, we are getting a pretty widespread rainfall this morning, as an upper-level disturbance moving across Tennessee throws some Gulf of Mexico moisture up over slightly cooler air near the surface. This is called "overrunning" and is common in some of our cooler months, but a little less frequent from late spring through summer. Don't expect a lot of rain, but a few tenths of an inch to maybe locally a half-inch to three-quarters of an inch will be welcome, especially falling slowly as it is. We trail our normal rainfall for the year by nearly 6 inches, so we still have some ground to make up.

Day 16: Back home, safe and sound

Posted May26, 2008 at 10:58 PM

The storm chase team arrived back in Blacksburg at about 4 p.m. today. After a round of hugs and goodbyes, we scattered to our respective homes. I'm very happy to be back with my wife and in my home after more than two weeks away, but the first day or two back always feels a little strange with no target zone to drive to and no chase team meetings. I have no doubt I'll miss the members of this very special team that experienced so much together.

There is still much video and photos to go through as we analyze the storms we saw during this trip.

And I'll be getting back to examining Southwest Virginia weather, too. It was sticky when I got home today, which is unlike the last couple of weeks that had some cool days.


Follow Kevin's progress on this map.

The most recent video from Storm Chase 2008 was posted May 23. It shows a tornado near WaKeeney, Kansas.

For more on Storm Chase 2008, click here.

Day 15: Cutting off the chase

Posted May26, 2008 at 12:50 AM

RICHMOND, Ind. -- There is always a time on these storm chasing trips for them to end. Sometimes, there is an obvious break in the stormy pattern when it's time to move east. This year, it simply came down to the budget. Higher prices for gas and lodging led us to a decision on Sunday morning to return to Virginia on Memorial Day. So this is the last night that this particular chase team will be together. There is a certain amount of sadness that comes with that, as this group has bonded so well and experienced so much together over the past couple of weeks. But this has been an intense and memorable trip, one that each of us will need some time to digest. The stories will be retold for a lifetime, and the lessons learned by each of us will also last that long.

Not far from where we were in the morning, tornadoes have killed at least 8 people in Iowa and Minnesota. The nation's tornado death toll has topped 100 in a year for the first time since 1998, and we're not even to the halfway mark yet.

Severe weather looks likely to occur over many of the next several days in the nation's mid-section. But it is time for each of us to return to our lives in the East, all the while keeping a wary eye to the sky, knowing firsthand what havoc mere wind can wreak.


Follow Kevin's progress on this map.

The most recent video from Storm Chase 2008 was posted May 23. It shows a tornado near WaKeeney, Kansas.

For more on Storm Chase 2008, click here.

Day 14: The little storm that wouldn't

Posted May25, 2008 at 02:23 AM

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NEWTON, Iowa -- Not much to write about today. We traveled to central Nebraska, where storms were expected to fire along the dryline. A few weak storms shot up to our north, racing away fast, and they weren't worth going after. We found one lone little cell all to itself south of Grand Rapids, a pretty little towering cumulus cloud trying its best to morph into a low-precipitation supercell. But some things were missing today -- moisture, swept away by a big mass of storms that moved across the Plains overnight Friday and early Saturday, and instability. The "cap," a warm layer of air aloft that inhibits convection, never did blast open like it easily did in Kansas the last two days. It didn't feel stormy to Dave Carroll and me as we stepped out of the vans in Grand Island, Neb. -- it was too cool and dry, not warm and sticky. Our little cell tried hard, but eventually poofed out near Grand Island.

Meanwhile, things went ballistic in Oklahoma.

We got in after midnight in central Iowa. There may be one last shot at storms on Sunday in or near eastern Iowa, but it's looking like there's a good chance that the meat of this chase trip is past. With all the long days and late nights, we really haven't had much of a chance to cycle through all the images and video we've taken, not to mention our individual thoughts and feelings about what we've seen and experienced. It will be a while to sort through this very intense chase trip.

Follow Kevin's progress on this map.

The most recent video from Storm Chase 2008 was posted May 23. It shows a tornado near WaKeeney, Kansas.

For more on Storm Chase 2008, click here.

Day 13: A Kansas beast

Posted May24, 2008 at 02:17 AM

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MANHATTAN, Kan. -- I only saw it for a few minutes, but that's as long as I needed to know I didn't want to mess with it. Early Friday evening, we saw a huge "wedge" tornado between Ness City and Ellis, Kan., at least our ninth tornado of the trip. A wedge doesn't look like a funnel or rope, but is essentially a big cylinder of cloud on the ground, sometimes a half-mile wide or more. This tornado moved along a very long path in central Kansas, and we have heard reports that it may have struck Ellis, Kan. It was on the second supercell thunderstorm we intercepted. The first spawned a tornado that caused some damage in Gove County, Kan., but we really couldn''t see it, though we saw some amazing circulation with that storm. We kept a wide berth from the wedge tornado, seeing it only at a distance. Perhaps, in time, I'll get a photo up, though I didn't even take one myself,. as low to the ground it was and as late in the day as it was.

The end of the day found us east of the same storm that spawned the wedge tornado, as tornado sirens sounded eerily while driving through Hays, Kan. As strong wind gusts rocketed past us toward the tornado somewhere in the murky storm milesto our west, a couple of fire and rescue workers from Hays pulled up beside us to get information on the storms. Fortunately for them, the storm was slipping just west of Hays.

It's another tired post-chase late night and the next day could be another stormy one, though farther east. That's why we're in Manhattan, Kan., tonight, likely to slip into eastern Nebraska on Sunday.


Follow Kevin's progress on this map.

The most recent video from Storm Chase 2008 was posted May 23. It shows a tornado near WaKeeney, Kansas.

For more on Storm Chase 2008, click here.

Day 12: Tornado close encounter!

Posted May23, 2008 at 12:32 AM

WaKEENEY, Kan. -- Words are not exactly swirling through my mind at nearly midnight after today's storm chase of a lifetime in western Kansas. We saw EIGHT tornadoes in a single afternoon and evening, as we tagged supercell after supercell riding along roughly the same track, just southwest and west of here. But it will always be the day's last intercept that will be best remembered, as we watched a tornado cross the road less than a mile in front of us as the day's late light and the storm's ample precipitation in the form of rain and hail provided an amber background. Unfortunately, we would experience a little too much of that rain and hail ourselves, propelled by winds approaching 80 mph. The narrow road and other chase vehicles did not allow us to turn and leave fast enough as the tornado swirled a band of rain and hail around it's backside. So, we got "hooked." We were swallowed by the blinding rain and pounded by hail, most of it dime-sized, but with a few golfball-sized chunks mixed in. The vans became separated, as Dave Carroll's van was near the rear and able to get back on the highway first (literally by backing up down the gravel road). He eased toward a gravel road that turned east, enabling him to escape the hook faster. I could only pull on to the side of the highway and let the tempest past, as it shook the vans and blasted them with hail. Eventually, via radio and cellphone, Dave and Andrew Smith were able to guide me to the same road they were on, as the rain, wind and hail finally slackened with the storm rocketing northward.

I'm sure I'll have much more to write about this day, and more pictures to show, in the future, but for now, I just need a good night's rest.

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A tornado crosses the road in front of storm chasers south of WaKeeney, Kansas


Follow Kevin's progress on this map.

The previous video from Storm Chase 2008 was posted May 22.

For more on Storm Chase 2008, click here.

Day 11: The lull ends -- the chase begins anew

Posted May22, 2008 at 12:56 AM

WaKEENEY, Kan. -- We left Sterling, Colo., this morning headed south toward Limon, Colo., on our way to Interstate 70 so we could eventually move east to here in central Kansas. We were not really expecting much out of a slight risk of severe weather through eastern Colorado, but we didn't want to leave too early only to find that storms had blown up hundreds of miles behind us while we set up for Thursday's possible large outbreak.

It's a good thing we hung around. By mid-afternoon, storms began popping in eastern Colorado. Stiff surface winds sometimes topping 50 mph ... frequently hurling dust and tumbleweed across the highway as it pushed our vans around a bit in their lanes ... combined with strong winds aloft helped cause those storms to rotate. The result was a smattering of supercells, and we we able to get on one just outside of Flagler, Colo., as it cycled through its strongest phase. It was an extremely photogenic storm; the inset photo, linked here in a larger form, is but one example. More will be on the audio soundslide that will be placed in this entry later Thursday.

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So, after 6 days of no storm chasing at all, we had an enthralling one today. The team has been extremely patient and good-tempered through the long wait, and performed almost flawlessly today in helping us navigate to a close but safe viewing vantage point on this storm. The stakes are higher on Thursday -- the storm potential over parts of Kansas and Nebraska today includes the chance of extremely large hail (baseball-sized and larger) plus the possibility of a few long-tracked tornadoes.

Wednesday was a good dress rehearsal to get us back on track after a week's layoff. Thursday is the real deal.

Follow Kevin's progress on this map.

The previous video from Storm Chase 2008 was posted May 21.

For more on Storm Chase 2008, click here.

Day 10: Lightning at night, chasers take delight

Posted May21, 2008 at 12:38 AM

STERLING, Colo. -- It was a wee little storm, but it gave storm-starved chasers hope. After eating probably our best meal of the trip at River City Grill (I had a delicious 7-pepper flat-iron-grilled steak) in Sterling, Colo., we came out to see a dark updraft base just north of town and a huge anvil cloud sprawling out overhead. Streaks of rain hung from the clouds, trying to reach the surface, but most of the rain was evaporating in dry air. But most impressively, lightning zipped around in the clouds, giving us a natural strobe light display as the amber sunlight slowly dimmed out underneath. Storms were not entirely unexpected -- a few small ones popped here and there -- but this one overachieved for us, and we didn't even really have to chase it. It may be a harbinger of a dramatically changing weather pattern that could turn the benign weather we've traveled through for a week into an atmospheric frenzy.

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Today was a true layover day, as we opted to hang out in northeast Colorado a second straight day. We did make a short road trip west to get within sight of the Rocky Mountains, some of the students' first time to see those snow-capped peaks, but we're mainly resting, analyzing and taking care of details to prepare for what could well be an extremely frenetic several days to end this storm chase trip.

While there is some threat of severe weather near here and slightly north on Wednesday, it is possible we will punt it entirely to reach a target in Kansas for Thursday's potent severe weather setup. It would be a lot like we did exactly a year ago, a day that produced some of the most dramatic storm structures we've ever see on these trips.

Speaking of lightning, take a look at Jessica Burchard's photo from our first storm chase on Tuesday, May 13 in northern Texas. She got this shot aiming and shooting, with no photography tricks or extended exposures.


Follow Kevin's progress on this map.

The previous video from Storm Chase 2008 was posted May 19.

For more on Storm Chase 2008, click here.

Day 9: Positioning ourselves for days ahead

Posted May19, 2008 at 11:05 PM

STERLING, Colo. -- The great storm chase lull of 2008 reached five days today, tying the record set in 2005. Today was another day mainly just to position ourselves for an upcoming weather pattern change that could turn things from extremely slow to extremely busy. The jet stream will soon start dipping south over the western U.S., then lifting northward somewhere along the eastern Rockies or western Plains. Such a pattern will help return a warm, moist flow of air from the Gulf of Mexico into the Plains, while also supplying atmospheric disturbances, dry air from the desert, and perhaps even a strong surface low pressure system. The factors we look for in finding severe storms ... abundant moisture, fast winds changing with height, and boundaries between different air masses ... will be present later this week. Where exactly they overlap is still a matter of conjecture. We are in northeastern Colorado because, for now, we expect this general region to have the best shot at rotating supercells and possibly tornadoes come Thursday-Saturday. That is subject to change as more information becomes available.

We are also here because there is an increasing chance the next two days that a few severe storms could roll off the Rockies or High Plains southeastward. We saw a few showers and a couple of tiny thunderstorms peppered around on the radar screen today. The pattern is changing, and we want to be where there is the best chance for what we call high-end severe weather.

We probably won't go far tomorrow, and may even stay here in Sterling, Colo., another night or two. We had a great meal tonight at J&L's Cafe in Sterling. Some of the student chasers, with the assistance of the wait staff, surprised Jessica Burchard tonight with candles in her dessert for her 19th birthday. We visited with a nice couple as we left, talking about local weather patterns and life on the farm. We're enjoying the people and places of our trip immensely, but the focus of the trip is storms. We are getting a bit anxious ...

Follow Kevin's progress on this map.

The most recent video from Storm Chase 2008 was posted May 19.

For more on Storm Chase 2008, click here.

Storm chase video of a west Texas supercell

Posted May19, 2008 at 05:50 PM




Here's some video that's just come in that the Storm Chase 2008 crew shot last Wednesday, May 14, just north of Big Spring, Texas. For more on that day's chase, see the May 15 entry, which includes Kevin's narration of some still photos from the storm. Here, though, is actual video shot by Dave Carroll, Trevor Owen, and Jennifer Henderson.

Follow Kevin's progress on this map.

The most recent video from Storm Chase 2008 was earlier today.

For more on storm chasing, click here.

Day 8: More High Plains drifting

Posted May18, 2008 at 11:04 PM


SCOTT CITY, Kan. -- Today was our fourth consecutive day without a real storm chase on this trip (the little storms we ran through Thursday and Saturday really don't count), and it's likely to grow to at least five on Monday. We went five days without chasing in 2005, and we will break that record if we get to Wednesday without a storm chase. But it's looking more and more like we could end with a flurry of activity here in the western High Plains, possibly as early as Tuesday, but more likely in the Wednesday-Saturday time frame.

Today, our drift through the High Plains took us north, through Amarillo, Texas, across the Oklahoma Panhandle and into western Kansas. A familiar stop along the way was Palo Duro Canyon just south of Amarillo ... yes, we stopped there during a lull last year, too. Compare the photo from this year with one from the chase trip a year ago ... pretty similar, huh? This time, we spent even more time in the canyon, driving all the way to the floor of the canyon for a picnic. Then we hit the road north across hundreds of miles of very dry, mostly flat, tree-sparse terrain to arrive here in Scott City for an overnight stay at a motel downtown. For the second night in a row, we are seeing real rural America up close, though things don't seem as festive outside here as they did in Dimmitt, Texas, last night.

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Jessica Burchard takes a photo and Joel Willis looks off an overlook into Palo Duro Canyon.

We begin to get back in weather analyzing mode on Monday, as we aim for a position that will set us up for anything that might fire with a developing pattern change Tuesday or Wednesday. A good guess for a stop on Monday night would be North Platte, Neb.

Follow Kevin's progress on this map.

The most recent video from Storm Chase 2008 was May 15.

For more on Storm Chase 2008, click here.

Virginia could see severe storms today

Posted May18, 2008 at 08:51 AM

While I am out in the Texas Panhandle with the storm chasing team, continuing to work slowly northward toward a multi-day late-week severe weather threat, parts of Virginia mostly just east of the Blue Ridge have a slight risk of severe weather today as a new cold front and strong upper-level wind energy move into the area. Though moisture will be not be extremely thick and heating will be modest, there is extremely cold air aloft, and that could allow storms to bubble upward during the afternoon. These storms may be able to unleash some strong winds and localized hail, mostly east of Roanoke, but don't rule out a few along the I-81 corridor. The chilly weather you've seen this week and these southeast-moving storm systems are the result of a large Canadian air mass that has overspread much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. It has shut off the Gulf of Mexico and therefore shut down much severe weather potential in the central U.S. A pattern change is ahead for the central U.S., but cooler than normal weather may hang on stubbornly along the East Coast.

Day 7: No space aliens, but a few little storms

Posted May17, 2008 at 10:56 PM

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Marielle Taft gets a photo of mild storms over the Texas Panhandle as Trevor Owen and Andrew Smith also take a look

DIMMITT, Texas -- Today was mainly another day to drift northward. That took us to Roswell, N.M., where we stopped at the UFO museum downtown. I balked at paying $5 to go inside, so instead wandered a bit through downtown Roswell, where almost everything plays off the alien theme. Later, we headed east back into Texas, running into some weak storms firing in the mid levels of the atmosphere from a weak disturbance combined with some daytime heating and meager moisture. We stopped on the roadside to take a look at the storm clouds and rain shafts over the vast open Plains of the Texas Panhandle.

Tonight, we're in Dimmitt, Texas, a small town southwest of Amarillo. The smell of cattle is thick in the air, Mexican music is playing loudly across the street, and some contractors from Minnesota greeted us happily at the motel as they grilled food on the back of their truck following a day of working on agricultural buildings in the area. This is real life in rural America.

The plan for Sunday is most likely to keep moving north. Possibly by late Tuesday, more likely from Wednesday through the weekend, there will be severe weather potential in the High Plains.

Follow Kevin's progress on this map.

The most recent video from Storm Chase 2008 was May 15.


For more on Storm Chase 2008, click here.

Day 6: Sobering and spectacular, but stormless

Posted May16, 2008 at 07:33 PM

CARLSBAD, N.M. -- We are in a long waiting game now, as we see how and whether the weather pattern will shift to bring severe storms back to the central U.S. next week. Current indications are that it will happen, but probably not until Wednesday at the earliest. A mid-trip lull seems to be common on these trips -- it's happened in all four of the ones I've been on -- but a storm hiatus lasting a full week would be unprecedented. But, this is a trip focused on the weather, so we are at the mercy of the weather pattern.

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Storm chaser Taylor White, a Virginia Tech student, looks at the Saragosa tornado memorial

In the meantime ... there are other places to go and things to do. The first stop today was particularly poignant, as we stopped at a marker commemorating the 30 people who died in the May 22, 1987, tornado that obliterated the small town of Saragosa, Texas. The obvious comparison anyone connected to Virginia Tech -- and most of us on this trip are -- can make is the April 16, 2007, shooting, which killed a similar number of people (32). In Saragosa, many buildings were reduced to slabs, and even today the town seems somber and not fully recovered. The slab that supported the nearby post office remains; the post office is now housed in a trailer. (Click here for photo of the post office, as Andrew Smith takes a look at the bare foundation.) At that post office, several of our chasers met a woman named Nancy who survived the tornado, but lost her mother, in Saragosa Hall, where a pre-school graduation ceremony was taking place the evening the tornado hit.

On a happier tone, we also traveled through the beautiful mountains of southwest Texas, eating a picnic lunch at a roadside pullout with a great view of El Capitan, which stands beside Texas' tallest peak, Guadalupe Peak, in Guadalupe Mountains National Park. Most people do not associate the state of Texas with mountains, but the southwest part of the Lone Star State contains many mountains that dwarf those in Southwest Virginia ... Guadalupe Peak is about 3,000 feet higher than Virginia's highest peak, Mount Rogers. The views were stunningly gorgeous. Without a storm to observe, this was the next best thing.

We are in Carlsbad, N.M. tonight. No, we haven't gone to the caverns ... don't know yet if we will or not. It was too late in the day when we came through to fight through the lines for a multi-hour tour. Our general plan is to slowly drift north the next few days, better positioning ourselves for what may happen in the middle to latter part of next week.

Follow Kevin's progress on this map.

The most recent video from Storm Chase 2008 was May 15.


For more on Storm Chase 2008, click here.

Day 5: Looking back, looking ahead

Posted May15, 2008 at 11:55 PM

PECOS, Texas -- Although we did manage to find a small thunderstorm with a little lightning and rain over extreme southwest Texas, Thursday was mainly just a relaxing drive through the semi-arid terrain of west Texas.

We are down this far south because the jet stream pattern is pushing south of Canada to such an extent that it is driving most of the moisture and warmth out of the United States. The extreme southern rim of Texas and eastern New Mexico looks like the only real shot at thunderstorms the next few days, as some warmth and moisture may linger, and a few disturbances along with the terrain may aid in allowing some convection to occur. The chances of severe weather are slim, but never zero when there are thunderstorms.

Down time between storm chases can be beneficial, helping us get some rest and take care of tasks like washing clothes and buying food. We also use the time to look back and look ahead.

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We've taken a look at some of the many photos and video segments from our first two chases. A photo by Trevor Owen (click here for bigger version of image) taken out the back window as we drove away from a close intercept of Wednesday's storm north of Big Spring, Texas, may reveal either an extremely low rotating wall cloud or, quite possibly, a tornado. Many other pieces of evidence point to a possible tornado: A rear-flank downdraft wrapping around the circulation (creating our dust storm) and a radar indication of tight rotation, called a tornadic vortex signature or TVS, are a couple of those. This storm would go on to go through many cycles of new wall clouds and eventually tornadoes forming, as a healthy supercell often does. We were there for at least the first two.

Looking ahead ... we'll be looking for any sign of a pattern change that could yield more widespread storminess next week. Several forecast models are beginning to show just that, but the various models have been in poor agreement. We'll just have to wait and see where we end up going next week, but for now, perhaps we should just enjoy some good Tex-Mex food and see if we can coax out a picturesque storm over the desert.

Follow Kevin's progress on this map.

See video from May 15.


For more on Storm Chase 2008, click here.

Day 4: A taste of Texas supercells

Posted May15, 2008 at 01:27 AM

BROWNWOOD, Texas -- Wednesday was a long day, but a good one for our group of storm chasers. We targeted a region near Abilene and southward as we headed out from Weatherford, Texas, in the morning. We were not at all confident that anything stormy would happen, but some atmospheric parameters began to look more conducive to severe weather as we moved west.

On the move, we altered our plan with new data, and kept going west to intercept storms in west Texas halfway between Midland and Abilene near Big Spring, Texas. We were treated to a beautiful supercell storm cycling over the open Wild West terrain. The storm's winds kicked up lots of red West Texas dust, blowing it in horizontal plumes and spinning some of it into whirlwinds known as "gustnadoes." Dave's van went right through one gustnado, and both vans disappeared into a red dust storm a couple of times. Some chasers got a real taste of Texas as the wind blew dust into their mouths.

The storm dropped a couple of rotating masses, one of which we observed in front of us minutes before a tornado warning was issued as radar picked up what we were seeing. We ended up chasing that on a gravel road around mesas and buttes, but it did not drop a tornado, and raced on eastward. We spent the rest of the day trying to catch up with the storms racing away from us, but could never get far enough to go around it (or through it!) again for another good look. Instead, we settled in behind the storms southeast of Abilene to end the day.

Our student chasers were very amped about Wednesday. The weather pattern from Thursday for several days forward is likely to shut down most thunderstorm activity in the central U.S. We may be swinging WAY south to try to find anything the rest of this week -- but as the last couple of days proved, plans can change on a dime.

The audio soundslide will come later today. Even if you've seen it once, be sure and go back and look at the Day 1 audio soundslide again, as photos have been added.

Follow Kevin's progress on this map.

See previous video from May 14.


For more on Storm Chase 2008, click here.

Day 3: A beautiful sunset storm in rural Texas

Posted May14, 2008 at 01:44 AM

WEATHERFORD, Texas -- It was getting past 5 p.m. Tuesday and there was no sign of storms firing anywhere close as we waited beside a church on top of a hill just west of Ardmore, Okla. Storms had started to develop from Oklahoma City northeastward toward Tulsa and beyond, but nothing was going up south of Oklahoma City. A warm layer in the atmosphere called the cap simply wasn't being broken by enough strong updrafts to produce thunderstorms.

But a few counties south in Texas, we noticed storms rapidly developing on radar. With nothing else close to us, we made a quick jaunt south across the Red River toward the storm more than 100 miles away. Just before 8 p.m. we succeeded in catching up to the biggest of the stroms, over a very hilly and forested part of north-central Texas in Jack County that wasn't all that much different than Virginia, if you ignored the cactus.

The countryside provided a dramatic setting for a powerful thunderstorm that dropped several lowerings and showed signs of rotation. Low-level shear -- winds changing with height near the ground -- was not strong enough to produce tornadoes this day. In fact, despite two large tornado watches being issued, there was only one tornado report in the nation on Tuesday, and it occurred along the Missouri-Kansas border.

But we did get an exciting and gorgeous conclusion to a long chase day that looked for a while like it might be a bust. Our student storm chasers were excited with how the day ended. You can see some of those scenes in the audio soundslide that will be inserted into this blog entry.

Here is one photo of a wall cloud trying to spin into something more.

WEDNESDAY: It looks like there is severe potential in the same general area of north-central Texas, so we will probably not be traveling far.

Follow Kevin's progress on this map.

See previous video on May 13.


For more on Storm Chase 2008, click here.

Day 2: The calm before the storm?

Posted May12, 2008 at 09:41 PM

SHAWNEE, Okla. -- Today was just a slow, relaxing drift west under blue skies as we set up for a possible severe weather outbreak on Tuesday. We slept in a little bit, got going pretty late, stopped a few times, threw the frisbee around some, and ended up in Shawnee, Okla. for the evening. We ate a big barbecue dinner at wonderful local restaurant called Van's Pig Stand, treated so graciously by everyone who worked there. A big part of these trips for me is the food and local hospitality.