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Weather Journal

with Kevin Myatt

Warmth about to give way to prolonged cooler period

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Say goodbye to the 80s for highs -- quite possibly for the remainder of 2008. Colder weather is on the way with the arrival of a cold front overnight and another one next week, and it looks like cool weather may hang on for a while. The Climate Prediction Center gives Virginia and neighboring states a good chance of below normal temperatures through the 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day periods. Also, interestingly, it rates our chances of above-normal precipitation similarly through the next two weeks, though from here it looks to me like mostly dry frontal passages. We need every drop we can get -- many areas west and southwest of Roanoke, including the New River Valley, were upgraded to severe drought today on the new U.S. Drought Monitor map.

It still remains to be seen exactly how cold we'll get next week, but it will probably be enough for some frost.

On an unrelated note ... we're going to be in the middle of a software change the next few days, so don't be surprised if you see this blog with a different format and missing graphic elements from time to time during the switch.

Hurricane, coastal storm not likely to threaten us

Hurricane Omar has developed in the Caribbean. In a typical August or September atmospheric pattern, it would automatically be presumed that there would be at least a moderate chance this would affect the U.S. But the upper air pattern is much different now. Omar, however, is forecast to take a northeast track and, after scraping Puerto Rico and crossing the Leeward Islands, will head out over open water far, far east of the United States.

Similarly, it's looking more and more like the weekend coastal storm will stay south and east of us, with only a few showers, if that, spinning our way. There could be wind and waves along the coast of the Carolinas, though.

What will be happening the next few days, though, is a shift from a warm temperature regime to a cool one, perhaps even cold by the middle of next week. Canadian air will begin to assert itself with two frontal passages over the next week, the first of which will occur late Thursday or Friday. Expect lows in the 40s by the weekend, and maybe even flirting with a widespread freeze by the middle of next week. Even with bright sunshine, we may have days next week that don't top 60.

Another strong coastal storm may develop

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You may remember back in late September (click here to look back at my blog entries) we were dealing with a coastal storm -- a strong low pressure system, possibly with a little tropical influence, that ended up coming inland and spinning rain on us for 3 days after causing wind and waves along the coast of the Carolinas. Well, we may be dealing with another coastal storm along the Carolinas by the weekend. This one is not expected to move as far inland or have tropical characteristics, at least at this point. But it could cause another round of high winds and heavy rains along the coast of the Carolinas and eastern Virginia, and may well spin some rain back our direction come Friday or Saturday.

It's something to keep an eye on. Meanwhile, expect unseasonably warm and dry weather Wednesday before a cold front and the low bring much cooler weather back for the weekend.

The tropics are still kicking

The tropical Atlantic has been relatively quiet since the spree of 5 straight tropical storms and hurricanes making U.S. landfall in August and the first half of September, but it has become more active again this week. The current National Hurricane Center map shows Tropical Depression Nana (formerly a tropical storm) in the open Atlantic, Tropical Storm Omar in the Carribean and Tropical Depression Sixteen (which could become Tropical Storm Paloma) near the coast of Central America. At this time, all three of these systems are expected to miss the U.S. by a wide berth, but Omar and Sixteen in particular could cause some mayhem in the nations which they do strike.

Weather Journal blog taking a short break

I'm taking a few days off from blogging, partly because of a software change. The weather looks pretty quiet the next few days anyway. I hope to be blogging again by Tuesday or so.

I will be continuing to answer reader questions, including some I took from blog comments, in my Sunday and Wednesday Weather Journal columns that appear in the Roanoke Times newspaper. Today, I have a column about a possible seismic tornado warning system.

You can click here to see the Weather Journal columns.

Autumn leaves and autumn showers

We've had some discussion about fall foliage on here ... here's a link to a Web site with some regular folilage updates and other information on fall in Virginia.

As for weather this week ... there may be a few showers mid to late week as a new cold front presses eastward, but at this time it doesn't look like a widespread, appreciable rain.

Prolonged calm, dry period likely

I've got into trouble proclaiming calm weather ahead before, but that looks exactly like what is going to happen through much of the next week, if not longer. Days will be in the 60s and 70s, possibly scraping 80 a day or two around Sunday or Monday, lows will be in the 40s and 50s, with some more 30s tonight in areas to the west of Roanoke that saw frost last night. We'll probably start to see color moving down the mountains this week. Fall is upon us, and temperatures will be right about where they are supposed to be.

A frosty Friday morning possible

Cool but dry air has settled in to Southwest Virginia. Overnight lows tonight could dip into the 30s and low 40s across much of the area, which raises the prospect of some scattered frost, if the skies are clear and the winds calm. This will not be a widespread killing freeze but might be reason to get sensitive plants indoors, especially in more rural areas. Temperatures the next several days are going to be near the norms for this time of year, with highs in the 60s and lower 70s and lows in the 40s and lower 50s into the foreseeable future ... and little or no chance of rain.

Answering the questions sent by readers

In my Weather Journal column for Wednesday, I've started answering some of the questions you e-mailed to me or posted on my Sept. 17 blog entry soliciting weather questions. I started with a question about fall foliage this year, one I frequently get, but often struggle with as my area of knowledge is weather, not biology. I found a little help from a North Carolina State University article on the Internet, linked here in full. Do you have any ideas about how the fall foliage will be this fall? Feel free to post a comment below.

I will continue answering some of your questions in my shorter Sunday and Wednesday Weather Journal updates the next couple of weeks. These appear on the back page of the Virginia section of The Roanoke Times, and also on the Weather page on Roanoke.com (which is separate from this blog).

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Recent comments

  • Thanks for the heads up on the cold weather. I still haven't gone shopping for ...more - Brandon R
  • Everything in Blacksburg is changing rapidly. This weekend should be perfect for hiking and camping.more - Henry
  • I noticed that you mentioned the "S" word in your article..now begins the whole "will ...more - Angela
  • I'm already seeing plenty of signs of fall here in Blacksburg. Has anyone else noticed ...more - Angela
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About this blog

Mug of Kevin Myatt

Kevin Myatt works on the copy desk for The Roanoke Times and is its principal weather geek, writing a weekly weather column and advising the newsroom on weather topics. He helps guide students on a storm chasing trip to the central U.S. each May and was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States."

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