UPDATE 4:20 PM: It will likely be a Southwest Virginia snowstorm after all
UPDATE 4:20 PM: Counties that were previously under a winter storm watch south of Roanoke are now under a winter storm warning. Counties that were not under a winter storm watch, including Roanoke, have now been placed under one. Widespread 6-10 inches is forecast by the weather service (does that sound familiar?) Click here for latest from the National Weather Service. END UPDATE
I will have more later, but for now: Forecast models have come consistently northward with heavy moisture and it now appears that much of the southern half of Virginia will experience a significant (4-plus inches) to major snowstorm (10-plus inches) Friday night into Saturday. The Hydrometerological Prediction Center is still in the process of updating its snowfall risk maps, but our region is now squarely within the high risk of 4-plus inches. Also, moderate risk of 8-plus, slight risk of 12-plus. More to come. Stay tuned.
January 28, 2010 - 3:52 PM
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The National Weather Service has not issued any new statements related to the winter storm since mid-afternoon. I suspect they are busy pinpointing all this now and coordinating with neighboring forecast offices. I would be mouth-dropping stunned if expanded winter storm watches and/or new winter storm warnings are not issued within the next hour.
Alright somebody, help me out with DC. Now that you appear to have your foot+… you gonna share, is the precip shield going to expand far enough north??
WSLS is still saying only 4-7 inches for Roanoke area.
I’m still not quite on board with widespread foot-plus … I’m thinking widespread 6-10 with localized foot-plus … but it’s close and I could be persuaded. And I’ve said all along that DC would at least get some snow.
Winter storm watches and warnings now almost completely encircle a roughly 15-county area that includes Roanoke, Lynchburg, Lexington and Lewisburg WVa.
Well I just put my snow shovel on the front porch. Things have certainly taken shape over the course of today. Looking at the model that says 12-14″ for Floyd…..WoW. I know this is only a possibility. One things for sure……more shoveling boys. Thanks for the blog.
Do we know about when this might be starting tomorrow???
Not even so much as a Winter Weather Advisory for the Roanoke/Salem area?? Doesn’t make sense.
This is looking more like a Friday evening-Saturday snow. Compared to the Dec. 18-19 snow, that began 1-2 p.m. across most of the area, this will probably start 3-6 hours later.
looks like a truckload of mulch for me! (great for weight & traction!)
andropolis
Roanoke’s under a watch now, Tom.
Andropolis: My late father worked at a rice mill most of his adult life in Arkansas. He used to get sacks of rice hulls and put them in the back fo the truck for the same purpose.
Something to keep an eye upon. The predicted low for Sat night is 13. High on Sunday is 29, then a low of 8. This is not only sticking around, anything that melts on Sunday because of the sun is going to majorly refreeze. Also, there will be some wind on Sat night. Monday morning will be messy.
WSLS says 4-7 for Roanoke any chance of more?
You know, Andropolis, if a foot of snow collects in the bed of your truck, that might be weight enough
The warnings to the south are there because of the HIGH CONFIDENCE — not because of ammounts, even if the track is off 50 miles, they still get heavy snow.
It looks like a lot of models have us at 12″ plus. Are local forecasters being super-conserative like usual. Kevin,is it time for a new snowfall percentage estimate by you?
Zach, it’s also general NWS policy not to jump from nothing to warning unless absolutely necessary. The weather service always prefers to move in gradations rather than big jumps. The forecast for the Dec. 18-19 snow went from 6-plus, to about a foot, to 12-18, to 15-20 over 4 forecast cycles even though the modeling looked about the same from start to finish. So they’re usually not going to go from nothing to winter storm warning unless it’s absolutely necessary (ie, 3 inches of snow on the ground with at least 2 hours of 1-inch-an-hour snow coming on radar)
George, I think a lot of forecasters don’t pay attention to the snow output on models but rather the liquid-equivalent moisture output. Some of that hasn’t seemed to match the foot-plus totals, but been more in line with 7-10 inches. But that may be presuming a 10:1 ratio — 10 inches of snow for each inch of liquid — when we may get something a little higher. This is the classic push and shove: The more moisture we get from the south also means temperatures aloft will be a little warmer, which means the dendrite growth on the snowflakes will be a little less and we get fewer inches of snow for inch of liquid. Somewhere there may be sweet spot tomorrow maximizing moisture flow and cold temperatures aloft.
I’ve been away from the computer at practice since 2, what to the 18z runs look like?
I would say a hair drier than some of the earlier runs, but no big trend. NAM and GFS are very similar on precipitation grades across the area, with half an inch of liquid up near Staunton/Charlottesville and 1.25 inch liquid near the NC border, so presuming 10:1 generally 5-12 inches north to south across the area. With a bit better ratios, a few inches more. About .75-1.0 liquid along the 460 corridor, so 8ish-10ish range.
@ Lindsey & andropolis…I just shovel the snow from my driveway into my truck. I get all the weight I need for free, and when it warms up…it melts away when I no longer need it. It’s worked well for the dozen or so years I’ve done it.
Looks like a moderate risk of a foot plus for the New River area now according to the HPC.
Thoughts on the storm..
It’s going to be cold tonight and tomorrow. Temps may not get much above freezing tomorrow. Even though it was 50 today, the snow will stick fast even if it’s light in nature at the beginning of the storm.
Very dry and cold air is moving in as I type this. Dewpoint in Roanoke is 16 and it will probably go lower than that with a drying NW wind.
I do think we’ll have good liquid to snow ratios. I would love to see a widespread 12 to 18 inch type of snow but I think 8 to 12 inches is a more accurate assessment at the moment. As Kevin said, these things can always change.
What could go wrong? Storms to our south might cut off some of our moisture. It could also be so dry when the storm starts to move in that it takes a very long time for the air saturate.
What could lead to a foot plus widespread? More moisture, better ratios, and a slower storm that moves farther north than forecast.
I generally expect a 8 to 12 inch type of event but I could be off 3 to 5 inches either way.
Andropolis: We went to Lowe’s and just got some bags of sand for my husband’s truck. They are only about $2-$3 a piece and when we don’t use them they sit safely in the garage until the next time (they are in thick plastic bags). Spread them evenly, especially over the rear wheels. We use about 10 bags for our Ford F-150 and they work great. They are about 50 lbs each.
WCYB down here in the Tri-Cities region is saying that Abingdon should get 4-10″, while their map shows the NRV & Roanoke getting 6-14″. That was at 6:20 this evening.
Kevin, any thoughts about how the areas more SW of the NRV might fare? I know a lot depends on elevation and location. Wytheville often gets blasted, while Abingdon seems to get sheltered. Just wondering about your perspective on it…
Hehe… Kevin said ‘hair drier’
Just heard we were in a state of emergency.
There are always local geography effects, but they are minimized when dealing with a large-scale synoptic storm. It seems like Abingdon is pretty well placed for a major dumping in this one and should get similar amounts to Wytheville … perhaps 8-12.
Zach is correct. Our new governor has declared a State of Emergency.
http://www2.wsls.com/sls/news/state_regional/article/gov._mcdonnell_declares_state_of_emergency_ahead_of_winter_storm/77651/
Last month, when the roads were scraped, I had a four foot tall by four foot wide mound of snow at then end of the driveway. Does anyone have any ideas as to how to keep the end of the driveway from getting blocked up with snow scraped from the road without getting in the way of the snowplows?
Hey, weather geeks, NOW is the appropriate time to let the rest of us in on what the various alphabet soup of models (GFS, NAM, etc.) are saying about predicted snowfalls, yet none of the 28 comments through 7:13 PM have included a link. How about including some comments with links, snow fans?? This snow hater has to deliver mail — along with at least one other blogger — on Saturday. Getting to work will be troublesome, and delivering the mail will be no picnic, either (although the postal trucks will be outfitted with chains). But the worst part may be having to get several inches of snow off our personal vehicles before we can even try to get home late Sat. afternoon
Kev, what kinda snow moisture content are we lookin at? Wet?
Speaking of mail, if you have a curbside mailbox, please get out there on Saturday morning (early if you usually get mail early) and shovel off the area within 10 feet either side of your box. You do not have to get it to bare pavement, but at least within an inch of that. If you usually get mail after 2 PM, you can wait until noon. No sense shovelling (around the mailbox, that is) at 8 or 9AM and then have 4 more inches fall. And if you have a mailbox at your house or especially on a porch, please try to shovel the steps before your letter carrier arrives. Even if he or she can get up there on Saturday when the snow still may be relatively soft, it will definitely freeze solid by Sunday and Monday morning. Many times I have been able to climb steps and deliver on the first day of a storm, but then suspend delivery after that because the snow has become icy. My apologies for commenting on something other than the upcoming storm.
Nam takes a jog southh…..
not just a jog, a diveee.
Here’s the latest 00z NAM loop…
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfsp03/00/index_p03_m_loop.shtml
Doug,
Maybe you should post the suggestions on one of the local tv stations or the weather channel blogs. Readers of this blog know when and how much snow we WILL get and prepare accordingly (Thanks Kev). It’s the people that follow the other forecasts that are clueless. HaHa! Just kidding, I couldn’t resist! I do have to applaud Kevin’s modesty, but I was impressed by this in the most recent update… “Widespread 6-10 inches is forecast by the weather service (does that sound familiar?)” I like it. Very subtle, but still has a little ‘you don’t want none of this’ mixed right in there! Newcomer to your blog, but I am now a faithful subscriber. My folks moved to Tampa, FL when my sister and I graduated college. I will definitely be tuning in to your thoughts during hurricane season. Keep up the good work, you got something good going here.
Yes, Another Jason, I know how to at least minimize the size of the huge snowdrift at the end of your driveway, but I doubt that you will like my answer. Get out there and shovel or plow the area at least 10 feet “in front” of your driveway, before the plow comes. What causes the huge drift — probably — is the fact that the plow is pushing snow off the street onto the side, and when it reaches a driveway, it “dumps” even more snow there. If the area has been cleared before the driveway, it will dump the big load there, reducing how much gets dumped at the driveway. Also clear the area beyond your driveway for 5 or 6 feet, too, if you can. By “in front” and “beyond”, I refer to the direction that the snow plow is travelling. Good luck!!
Hey, Zach, how about including the link in a comment??
I have a great relationship with the NWS folks (and the TV mets, too, for that matter). No intentional “in your face” there. Of course, if all of us are saying the same thing, then that’s just more people going down with the ship if this falls apart.
The new NAM is very dry and a bit south, Zach, but every professional forecaster I can find has been throwing it out all day as an outlier.
The “dry and south” NAM still kicks out .5 to 1.0 liquid across the area … 5 to 10 inches of snow, minimum.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p36_054l.gif
We’re shoveling.
So Kevin your saying even the model they have been kicking out all day is showing 5-10 across the area? and you don’t hold a lot of weight in this model yourself? Thanks for the links that helps a novice like me understand all this jargon…great job with this blog btw
Wow, Again Kevin I get stuck looking at the individual runs — and not the total qpf.
Am I correct in understanding that if we get the model that is showing the least, we still get 5-10″? If I am correct, then tell me how much we get if we get the model showing the most.
Sorry, Kevin. Didn’t mean for that to be disrespectful. I apologize and can see that perception. I just thought it was cool that the mutual agreement gave us and you more confirmation that you are on the right track here. But… you’re right the true confirmation will be revealed when we pull out the shovels!
Funny: No apology necessary. I did think it was a little funny the weather service came to the same inch range tonight that I’ve been spouting since, oh, Wednesday. (Well, I retreated a bit to 5-8 yesterday)
The NAM has been on its own on this storm for a long time with weird timing, much later than the other models (we wouldn’t see much snow at all till daylight hours on Saturday if this latest run is right). The HPC has noted initialization errors (not getting the inital conditions correct) and some convective feedback errors (overplaying the effect of storms in Texas).
Wes: There have been some runs today in the 10-14 ballpark.
People here in Marion thought I was crazy to buy a BIG snowblower after the first big snow in December. I bought it as a heart attack preventer. When you’re 62 and you have a 300′ driveway on both sides of the house, a grand is a small price to pay. WCYB did say we should expect 6-14″ near my house. I suspect the higher end since my house is a little over 2,400 feet above sea level. There is not a ski mask to be found in Wythe, Smyth or Washington Counties to keep the snow off my face.
Jeff H just said 4-7 for Roanoke on Fox….???
I think he said up to 8″ along 460.
Like I said Kevin you are always right. It just takes the rest a little while to catch on
Here’s a link showing areas south of Roanoke getting 12-20 inches. Eeeegads.!!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX
The Weather Channels hour by hour shows the snow starting around 5 – 6pm Friday night. Take it for what its worth.
I am watching Jay Webb (of WDBJ7 TV) on My 19. His snowfall forecast model showed only 2.7 inches for RRA area on Saturday, but he is forecasting 4-6″ for Roanoke Valley. At end of weather segment, he showed the result of bad ice floes in Augusta, Maine (“AYAH” …. that is a Maine expression, by the way) …. bad flooding of icy waters in the city. Unholy mess. Would only be worse if it were salt water and if it included pollutants. His model showed 8 inches for Martinsville. Most of the bloggers here seem to think Roanoke will get 6+ and Southside and western half of NRV will get 10 inches or more. Who will be right? I am betting on you bloggers, although I hope Jay is right.
And thanks to “Rowuhnoke”, Kevin, and Rick for posting links. Much appreciated.
your right Bill Jeff H said 4-8 along 460 but if it should “jog” to the N then we would need to up the amounts
Kevin,
is there ANY chance we get more than a foot on this one? Yesterday and even earlier today there was still a chance. I just don’t want to keep my hopes up if there’s no chance.
Yes there is still a chance of a foot. SOMEBODY will get a foot. I think those somebodies will be south of here, though, near the NC-Va border. There is still a shot at nothing too, if the moisture gets shunted south more than expected. I think a foot is more likely than nothing. But I’m holding firm at 6-10 inches as my call on this. I think the best moisture still goes a little south.
Hi Kevin – I’m getting nervous about getting home tomorrow night. Arrive Roanoke airport at 10p. Live up Sugar Loaf Mountain. When do you think snow will start, and will it come down at first as fast as Dec storm?
No guarantees … but I think the bulk of the snow will be after 10 in Roanoke, maybe some light stuff by then. We probably won’t achieve the snow rates we did in December, at least not for as long as we did then.
So, Kevin, what do you think we’ll see in Ferrum? I’m guessing we’re on the cusp of the heavier snow around the NC/VA border?
It’s hard to pick out specific towns, but would generally say 6-10 along 460 corridor (Bluefield-Blacksburg-Roanoke-Lynchburg) — 4-7 north to I-64, 8-12 south to Va border, very generally.
Willie, at least you will be going uphill, assuming that your flight is not delayed or cancelled. I live up SLM (on west side, SLM Road). You should have zero traffic then. Just get your speed up a little bit BEFORE the hill and avoid hitting the brake. Steer out of any skids and keep on with at least some pressure on the accelerator. Reason some folks do not make it up a steep hill on snow is because they take foot off accelerator and hit brake, killing their momentum (which is crucial!!!) and increasing the chances of a bad skid. GOOD LUCK!
While all the “fun” with Friday’s/Saturday’s storm is yet to come, it’s not too early to talk about the next two. This link shows potential biggees coming each of the next two weekends…..according to the GFS. Enjoy the dream or nightmare if you are a delivery worker like me.
http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp
GFS comes in about the same as NAM – a HAIR further south. I’ll post the qpf link.
http://i45.tinypic.com/2881jyh.jpg
If this were to verify 3-6″ north of Roanoke
6-10″ 460 Co-oridor
8-12″ further south along the border
12-16″ northern North Carolina.
Kevin,
What’s your best guess as to when the flakes will start falling in the NRV?
Love the blog. Keep up the great work.