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1. I hope this one verifies, I checked our rain log and we’re approaching 6″ dry again, so this would go a long way to quench the thirst of the region…provided it does not do so in excessive fashion.

2. And here’s the flash flood watch KM said we would see.

   http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/rnk/

3. I’m all for a boost in the ground water, but the threat of winds on Wed. gives me pause.

4. I’m glad for this good soaking, it is going to be highly beneficial and I doubt we’ll flood because the dry earth will soak it right up, unless it’s small streams or roadways…I hope it doesn’t flood! Accuweather has chilled their 15-day forecast off even more, with an actual solid snow for around the 8th or so of Decemeber. Do I think it will….NO, but interesting to think about as cold air is arriving and looks like it may stick around for a while!

5. Me too Tim. Too much rain softening the ground before strong winds…never good. At least the tree canopies are gone, that’ll help reduce some potential for uprooting.

6. Any insight into the December 7th and 8th period? not so accuweather.com has snow in the forecast.

7. All of the foliage on the ground won’t help things either.

8. I bet Snowshoe will end up with a foot of snow out of this one. The GFS is showing more accumulation with each revision in that area.

   http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FCX

9. I was reading AW during my lunch, and this article caught my attention:

   http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/42267/east_coast_december_snowstorm.asp

   ‘If arctic air lags a bit, it could open the door for one or two storms to swing up from the Gulf of Mexico, spreading a swath of coastal rain with inland and mountain snow over the Eastern part of the nation next week.’

   And then:

   ‘Interestingly, even the more southerly track of one or two storms could still mean snow for part of the southern Appalachians and the South, as well as heavy lake-effect snow up north, and perhaps an Alberta clipper storm with light snowfall in part of the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic down the road.’

   So, they seem to think that any way you slice it, snow is a real possibility for next week. Of course, this is AW…and it’s more than a week out, and we all know how well those play out…

   But it’s sure nice to think about!

10. For December 8th…TWC has snow showers for 24012 on the 10 day forecast.

11. There is window of time around the 7th-10th when the jet stream may be configured in a way — a southward dip in the East — and a disturbance may swing through when a precipitation-causing system is possible. Temperatures may be able to support mix or snow IF that happens. Beyond that, there are no specifics to sink our teeth into yet. The window is short, and could still close altogether. We should know a little more by the weekend.

12. Any insight into the December 7th and 8th period? not so accuweather.com has snow in the forecast.

    Comment by Elliot — November 29, 2010 @ 12:08 pm

    Here’s DT’s latest audio blog from wxrisk.com for Sunday the 28th. DT mentions at a hint of this but not to be alarmed just yet.

    http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/Thisweekinwx/NOV28AUDIO/thisweek.html

13. How about putting up a comment on how to find the sites you highlight in your forecasts. Like where and how is the header worded on NOAA’S weather site..Thanks.

14. The cold air wedge is working today. Temperatures now in Abingdon at 61 degrees and Roanoke is 45. Washington Co is under a High Wind warning for tonight due to southeasterly coming off the mountains to our east.

15. Wow… TWC and Accuweather both have snow posted for around the 8th! That’s great but just like Scott and a few others, I hardly believe it will verify. We’ll just wait and see. Meanwhile, the GFS map that Rick posted shows the Elett Valley (where I live for those newcomers that don’t know) in the light pink shade for snow accumulation on Wednesday from this system. We’ll see if that happens but that would kind of be cool to get a trace of snow out of this. This rain we’re about to get will also be great. The nice soaking will be really helpful considering it has been dry here of late. Kevin, you brought up a great point about how even though the CPC predicts below normal precip., 4 inches of snow which is actually a decent amount will amount to not much rain. I keep forgetting that the CPC does not measure in snow in the winter months. It is good to see the ol’ GFS snowmap out again. Last winter, it was always full of those green, burnt orange, and red colors which are such a wonder to see for snow lovers! I know for Doug though that it is an absolute horror film for him to see that!:>)

16. WD: Anything that is colored blue in a blog post is linked to a Web page. Click on the blue-colored “This is the way the National Weather Service sees the rainfall developing” and it will go to the warning/advisory page that includes a rainfall map if you scroll down a bit. Sometimes I or others will link sites in the comments too. Unless I’m being very general, I always try to link at least one specific site, usually a National Weather Service-related site.

17. Forecast maps from NWS-Blacksburg and the HPC showing widespread 2-plus inches of rain on the way:

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/emer/emer.php

18. Today, all of my students were talking about some possibility of snow they had heard about for this Wednesday, and getting all whipped up. Thankfully, I can come here to get some more rational and educated discussion!

19. It certainly is more rational and educated here Blossom, more so than any other site or TV station I know of. And yes, there is a chance of snow Wednesday but not much but it still is exciting. The real thing to look for is the very slight possibility of Dec. 7th.

    Well, the rain is coming and this is only the leading or break off edge of it. Let the deluge begin. 2 plus inches is pretty big especially since it has not rained in a while so let us hope it does not flood and everyone is safe.

20. OK, time for the ol’ snow-despiser to check in. I am going to make an early call about whether there will be any snow on or around December 8th. NO! Not even a flurry here in the immediate Roanoke valley area, possibly some “lonely” snowflakes in Blacksburg, Giles, and higher elevations of Pulaski, Wythe, Bland, etc., but no accumulations on the Virginia side of the border, with the possible exception of a place like Potts Mntn in Craig County (almost 4000 feet elevation). What convinced me to make the very early call was the fact that Accuwthr is predicting it more than a week in advance. :>) :>) Sorry to “rain on your parade,” snow lovers (PUN WAS INTENDED!). Just enjoy the cold weather. And the big rainstorm. Certainly looks like this rainstorm will not be “overblown.” {I could not resist that last comment :>)}

21. Actually, for next week, rather than some kind of higher-elevation-only borderline snow like Doug mentions somewhat facetiously, I could more easily see a strong low off the northeast coast redirecting the whole pattern farther south, and forcing the potential winter storm south of us. But at this point is little short of speculation. Some of the pieces look to be there for a wintry system next week somewhere in the East, and some model runs want to put all of them there for something more serious. A long way to go on that … the rain over the next 48 hours is a virtual certainty, just a matter of how much.

22. Couple of abnormally normal (who first used that clever expression? Weather Wizard?) weather “statics” right now. First, the month-to-date temperature deviation for RRA, through 11-28: 0.0!! And the year-to-date rainfall at RRA, again through yesterday, 39.73. Normal? 39.43. Since we have not received anything yet today (well, at least none at my house), that 0.30 surplus will be reduced to probably 0.18 or 0.17 in tomorrow’s newspaper through today. But it then will go up by 2 inches, it looks like. Another great early call by you and a few others, Kevin.

23. There is a slight risk of severe weather today, including possible tornadoes, mostly south and east of our region, but edging toward the Martinsville area and through Southside. High winds aloft will induce significant spin today, but instability will probably be lacking for a lot of big storms in most of our region, as we start out with temperatures around 40 and only slowly warm.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

24. Blossom, my love for snow can tend to make me as irrational as your students haha. But I always check in here first to see what Kevin and the others (Nick, Doug, and Scott among others) are saying. I actually get more information from this blog than any other weather website.

25. We picked up 0.22″ of rain so far. Our official monthly total rang up to 2.2″, 0.76″ short. We had made a lot of good progress in August and September with surpluses, but 2 months of deficits of nearly an inch each have pushed us back to 6″ dry again. Hopefully the rains today and tonight will erase a third to half of that, and we’ll have normal-ish precipitation the rest of the month so we finish the year less than 2-3″ dry, which would be within the statistical realm of being normal.

26. I was reasonably assured a month ago that the La Nina system would keep snow haters like me from having to worry about another winter full of the white stuff. Now I’m already stressing about next week, and it’s still Autumn!

27. No stress here Sam,
    got my nose shined up and ready for Santa to hook up the sleigh…..only 25 days to go

28. The last day’s worth of model runs seem to have lost the idea of a storm impacting the area, with the cold push suppressing it well south and not letting it develop until well off the coast. Eh, we’ll see what happens I guess.

    A friend of mine works for WVEC down in Norfolk and their weather guy is saying there’s a potential for a mixed bag of stuff down there, which would lead me to think that perhaps we could at least get a little white stuff this way, if the weather pattern allows for it. Then again it could be one of those systems that brings snow way to our south while we stay dry. I can’t remember if it was 2007 or 2008…but there was a time where southern Louisiana had much more snow than we did for almost the whole winter, until a late season storm brought us some. I also remember one year when I was a student at VT, I think this was the winter of 00-01, Hampton Roads got a solid 6-inch storm during the winter break, and that was bigger than any snow that fell in the NRV that winter. I remember being very disappointed with the snows up this way for several years, because they weren’t really that much better than what we were used to at the coast. Maybe more frequent, but it took until the December 2002 storm for me to see a potent system bring more than 6 inches to the area, nearly 3 years after I moved to the area.

29. Looking at the radar. Based on how previous storm systems performed, I have my doubts about the rain making potential of this storm as well. Already looks like most of the moderate stuff is passing to our north and west.

    I doubt we will get more than an inch.

30. ATTENTION SNOW LOVERS!!!! This is from DT at wxrisk.com. TURN UP AND LISTEN TO THE RADIO LINK BELOW:

    The following is quoted from wxrisk.com:

    “Mon, November 29, 2010 8:00:50 PM DT ON THE RADIO –MAJOR SNOWSTORM COMING FOR VA DEC 8-9?
    From: DT at WxRisk.com

    Good evening, DT here from WXRISK.COM

    In case you did not know there is a snowstorm threat coming, actually 2 of them in the first 10 days of December.

    The first is threat DEC. 4-5 which is a clipper Low that will affect northern half of VA. That Low is going to ” bomb out” off the NE coast as it becomes as huge Upper Low in the Jet stream over northern New England.

    At the same time, an ARCTIC cold air mass –an arctic High– comes out of central Canada and a strong system comes east out of CALIFORNIA. The European Model has a Major winter storm hitting NC and VA DEC 8-9. The Low ‘s snow may not make it past Baltimore or Philly to the north.

    I will be talking about this threat on the web site, in my chat room AND on this radio show on the internet at 9PM MONDAY NOV 29.”

    Here is the radio and facebook links:

    http://www.blogtalkradio.com/americanwx/2010/11/30/american-wx-radio-first-show

    http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Wxriskcom/129478830432717

31. Another NWS forecast bust? We’ve had less than a tenth or so here in Lexington, and based on what I’m seeing in the radar returns, we may get a line moving through later with a period of moderate rain…but that’s about it. I’m not so sure about the flood watch potential, at least here. Most of the rain appears to be moving north on the western side of the Appalachians.

32. The new HPC has a 2.85″ bullseye sitting right around New Castle, with much of the region solidly in the 2″+ range tonight.

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif

    Days 4-5 shows what appears to be a clipper system riding in, though light precip amounts under a quarter inch, mostly wringing out in WV.

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e12p48iwbg_fill.gif

33. I’m not in agreement with the comments about a forecast bust. This system is almost perfectly forecast so far. The rain band is exactly where it’s supposed to be, west of the Appalachians, moving slowly east while cells within the band move northward along it. The heaviest rain is not supposed to be in our region til late afternoon and evening. There are flash flood warnings out in eastern Kentucky and Tennessee. Whether it verifies into 2-3 inch rain amounts remains to be seen, but it’s definitely on track and on schedule so far.

34. We can watch our water table in real time, all around the state. I enjoy seeing what happens when rain like this one arrives.
    http://waterdata.usgs.gov/va/nwis/rt

35. We’ve had a good soaking of rain in Daleville/Fincastle, but not falling as heavily as I thought it would. Did you say the heaviest bands would hit the region tonight and tomorrow Kevin? We really need this! Very interesting post Captain Glen Quagmire, of course this snow lover hope it pans out, but not going to get too excited yet, give me 4 or 5 days, then if it is still a threat I’ll break out into a snow dance. Nick…I always like learning something new, where is the Ellet Valley you are from? Is it in the Southwest Virginia mountains? Everybody enjoy our rainy day! We need it!!

36. The rain we’ve had so far is entirely the result of (1) overrunning over a cold air wedge and (2) upslope flow. We have not got at all into the rain caused by the strong jet stream lifting Gulf moisture northward or squeezed out by the lift of the strong cold front. So that’s why we’ve seen light stuff so far with the heavier stuff to the west.

    One major difference in this and previous systems that have petered out coming over the mountains is that there is no dry air east of the mountains. The air is saturated. So this rain band isn’t going to just fall apart when it pushes eastward.

    The severe weather threat has been stretched farther north, with the Blue Ridge/I-81 corridor on the western edge. We’ll see some warming temperatures overnight that might cause some instability for some thunder, particularly south and east of Roanoke. I’ll probably update with a fresh thread for the evening.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

37. Here is a link to my winter forecast. First time doing truely long range, and trying to understand all the things that go into it. I have been studying most of November or trying to anyways as to why I think what will happen will happen. haha. Please feel free to leave any helpful advice or comments, if infact you do read.

    Thanks!

    http://206flames.blogspot.com/2010/11/my-winter-forecast.html

38. Bring on the snow!!!!!!

39. Zach…just read your winter 2010-2011 predictions blog and you did an excellent job. I have done that kind of analysis before several years ago, but never had an impressive blog site like yourself. Your outlook has a great knowledge of meteorology and insight and it sounds like your predictions for winter snowfall for the Roanoke area are basically normal at 23″ or so, which is much better than some of the other snowless predictions. I must say though I hope your predictions are incorrect for December and January, because that’s when I like the snow the most and you predict very little for December and none for January. Your predictions conjure up memories’ for me of the winter of 1992-1993. It started off very mild and we had very little snow in December, January was mild and almost snowless, but mid-February started a much colder and snowier regime. We had 2 storms in mid-late February, the heaviest being around 7″ and of course the infamous BLIZZARD of 1993 in early March that pelted Roanoke with 16″ of snow, and that was one of the lower totals in Virginia. We also had record cold that March and in my years of keeping winter records, it was the coldest March we’ve had in my lifetime. Anyway, Zach…keep up the good work, you look to have a promising career in the field of meteorology!

40. To get back to the present storm which is very interesting for late November…the winds here in Hardy have now switched around to the south and the temperature and dewpoints are now rising (as an aside .38″ here so far) …ought to be an interesting night…what do you think about the chance of severe weather, Kevin?????

    Zach…interesting analysis…thanks for sharing it with us.

41. Just put up new post going into all the ins and outs of the volatile weather tonight and Wednesday.

42. Zach, thanks for linking to your thoughts on the upcoming winter, it was an interesting read.

    If it weren’t copyright infringement, you could call it the Zachuweather forecast!