UPDATE 7:40 PM: High breaks 50 at Roanoke — so is it too warm to snow?
UPDATE 7:40 PM: The first wave of precipitation — mostly if not entirely rain — is moving northward through southern Virginia and will likely overtake the Roanoke and New River valleys within the next hour or two. Some sleet may be possible in higher elevations where temperatures cool sufficiently. Latest National Weather Service radar linked here. END UPDATE
First off — a winter storm warning has been issued for most counties in Southwest Virginia, a larger area than was covered by the winter storm watch earlier (yes, Franklin County has been added, too). The various forecast products will be updated in the next hour or so by the National Weather Service in Blacksburg, linked here.
It would be too warm to snow if stayed 50, obviously. But the question bounced around quite a bit today is whether today’s highs, above 50 at Roanoke and several other sites, preclude snow happening on Wednesday.
The cold air that is expected to produce snow on Wednesday is coming from an upper-level low, a spinning pool of extremely cold air currently over Arkansas and Louisiana. This upper low is expected to take a path over or just south of the region late Wednesday. As it does so, the combination of that cold air being pulled downward into the strengthening surface low on the coast, and the cold air being pulled down by falling precipitation, is expected to pull temperatures to near freezing, enabling more snow to fall and eventually accumulate.
This is not really an unusual situation. A very similar setup occurred on Feb. 11, 2006. Roanoke had a high of 50 on Feb. 10 and was in the low 40s at midnight as the clock rolled into Feb. 11. But an approaching upper low, feeding into a developing coastal low, was enough, along with a morning rain/sleet/snow mix changing to snow, to pull temperatures to the freezing mark the rest of the day. Roanoke got 5 inches in that storm; Blacksburg got 8 inches, and 4-10 inches was common across the region.
Today’s highs have added some warmth to the lowest layer of the air that will need some time to cool. Overnight precipitation will begin doing that — some of it is already showing up on radar, mostly evaporating before hitting the surface. Temperatures will get cold enough to support frozen precipitation first at the high elevations — one reason I’ve given higher elevations a slightly higher snow expectation than lower areas — and then working lower. By the time the main precipitation begins Wednesday with the upper low, it won’t take long for temperatures to drop into the low 30s at most locations.
So a high in the low 50s today doesn’t preclude snow on Wednesday — if all those dynamic processes work as expected. The warmth today may have slightly warmed the ground, allowing for some early melting, but the ground is rather cold from 2 months of below-normal temperatures so it will hold the snow better than it would were we in the 50s after weeks of mild weather. Pavement may hold enough heat for early snow to melt, but if it falls hard enough with temperatures in the low 30s, slush will start developing, and snow can begin accumulating on streets too.
I’m still expecting 5-9 inches west of I-81, 3-7 inches east of I-81 to Lynchburg and Stuart, and 1-3 inches east of there through Martinsville and Southside. Rain and light mixed precipitation should begin overnight, slowly changing to snow from the northwest and from higher elevations downward, with snow beginning in earnest around noon Wednesday and continuing through the afternoon and early evening.
January 25, 2011 - 3:49 PM
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I’m so excited. I went back outside a little bit ago and I can already feel a difference in the temperature, it is starting to cool off here in SW County.
I predict 8″
The snow melt solution that VDOT is using on the roads before the storm, will this be washed off the roads by any rain we get before it is able to do any good when the snow gets here?
There’s a nice donut hole for the snow plopped squarely over my house NW of Radford…odd. Forecast for me changed to just 1-3″ of snow, even though the WSW says 4-8.
When I first saw the headline I moaned really loud: Noooooo!! The Queen of Puppydom tilted her head in surprise. Then I read the update. Whewwww.
Starting over, same dance, different song…full of hope, again. (pushing Sam Oakey’s song choice, down deep)
I predict sore shoulders and cold wet feet. Boooo I say, if only I could play, or just watch with a cup of something warm to sip on. Let the rains come. (but you guys enjoy your snow, I would if I could)
Kevin, nice thread above. I totally get it!
Kevin,
Is Roanoke and Salem considered EAST OR WEST OF I-81,
Thanks for all the hard work and thoughts you put into all this for us that just dont know.
I’m still not 100% sold on a big’un. I think we wind up with a bit of rain to push totals down. My best guess… 4 inches at Roanoke Regional.
Don’t really now why some weather service forecasts are showing less for some local areas. I always look at the zone forecast product text rather than the point-click forecasts on the map.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/forecast.php#D (*scroll to top of page)
Roanoke zone forecast now for up to 1 overnight; 2-5 during the day Wednesday; and 1 more Wednesday night. That would be 4-7 added up.
Sammy: Roanoke/Salem is east of I-81. I did originally put an exception for areas above 2,000 feet east of I-81, which I put in 5-9 category.
Obviously snow amounts never follow smoothed off corridors based on highways and lines between cities — so I would consider that more of a general guide than anything precise.
I hate it when somebody gives an historical example of warm weather, then snow, from the past. Argh.
I’m out at lunch thinking “there is no way it’ll snow . . . no way.”
Kevin…the temps. are falling quickly! Do you think some of the larger totals from the NRV and west may bleed over into Roanoke? I’m greedy…3-7″ isn’t cuttong the mustard for this kiddo! Just teasing, if we get 4″ or more I just may do the polar bear plunge in Tinker Creek…hahahaha!!
evaporational cooling is a wonderful thing.
Temps at 4:00 PM
#s after cloudy are temp/dewpoint/RH
WASH NATIONAL CLOUDY 45 23 42 CALM 30.10F
DULLES CLOUDY 44 21 40 CALM 30.08F
CHARLOTTSVILLE CLOUDY 51 23 33 S13 30.05R
ORANGE* CLOUDY 51 28 40 SE3 30.07S
LOUISA* CLOUDY 48 25 40 CALM N/A
FARMVILLE* CLOUDY 52 30 43 SE3 30.04S
ROANOKE CLOUDY 50 25 37 NE6 30.05S
BLACKSBURG CLOUDY 46 30 53 CALM 30.03F
DUBLIN* CLOUDY 52 25 35 SE5 30.02F
MARION* CLOUDY 45 32 61 CALM 30.06F
temps will start to fall soon.
Great work, Kevin. You are THE weather man of the valley!
NAM once again lowers qpf..
Over 50 in Floyd today….all this wishful thinking about snow and all we will get is rain and some slush.
Hate posting inaccuweather stuff but this is the best radar/satellite combo I can find.
http://www.accuweather.com/us/radar/rs/se/radar.asp?play=true
See the white cirrus clouds forming in front of Gulf Low near Mobile. Cirrus filling in now from middle of Gulf thru LA (Lower AL)/FL Panhandle moving due north in AL/GA. Signs of intensification. ULL over ARKLATEX. Interaction beginning with ULL and gulf low?
At 2648′ on Poor mountain. The air is definitely becoming more moist. I’m thinking maybe 10 inches up here. Temp on my porch is 41 but dropping rather consistently. Here’s hoping for a good one! I’m ready to do some x-country skiing!
GFS puts out .75-1.5 over area!
Thank you, Kevin for your dedication to this blog. I really enjoy the discussions, predictions and links.
WDBJ: 1 to 3″.
Unacceptable call when there is a winter storm warning for 4″ or more out for most of the area.
Aren’t they required by law to pass along all warnings or advisories accurately?
Love seeing everyone’s comments and the excitement (for most), seems like every tv & weather channel station is still across the board on amounts, guess its like my mom used to say “look at the window”! Looking forward to following the blog this evening & tomorrow. Thanks Kevin !
Radar looks funny to me; is this they way we expected it to be?
kevin, what do u think northern roanoke county could get??
Nowcasting from the southern part of the storm. We’ve been having heavy rain this afternoon with rumbles of thunder. There is a lot of moisture in this storm.
HPC has backed off on the QPF for the NRV. Now forecasting 0.50 to 0.75 inches, a bit more to the north: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif
Temps at the NRV airport have fallen from 52 to 48, but the Dew Point is up at 27 now. Had a few sprinkles of rain here and there that I saw. The atmosphere is definitely going to need to dynamically cool for the snow to happen. Registering 48.6 at the house right now.
NORTH CAROLINA WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
500 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
ASHEVILLE RAIN 36 34 93 S3 29.97F FOG
JEFFERSON DRIZZLE 39 36 87 CALM 29.99R
MORGANTON LGT SNOW 37 36 93 CALM 30.07F
HICKORY CLOUDY 37 34 89 CALM 30.02F FOG
REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
ROANOKE CLOUDY 49 26 41 E6 30.06R
BLACKSBURG CLOUDY 45 30 57 CALM 30.03S
DUBLIN* CLOUDY 48 27 43 CALM 30.03R
MARION* CLOUDY 43 30 61 E6 30.05S
RICHLANDS* PTCLDY 41 34 75 N5 29.95S
STAUNTON* CLOUDY 52 28 40 S3 30.03S
HOT SPRINGS VA CLOUDY 37 28 70 CALM 30.02S
LYNCHBURG CLOUDY 49 25 39 S5 30.07R
NC temps are coming down fast Morganton reported light snow.
Just got home from work. It feels cooler than the temperature says it is for Blacksburg. I also felt a few droplets of something as I walked to my car. There were a few sparse sprinkles on my windshield on the way home.
Hoping for enough snow overnight to get a delayed opening at VT. It’s too much to hope for a cancellation.
Libby
The storm looks pretty much like it was supposed to at this point — maybe a tad faster/earlier. The arc of precipitation back from western Ky through western Tenn into eastern Ark. and Mississippi is with the upper low — right where all modeling showed it. That will translate eastward overnight into Wednesday. That’s where the main snow comes from, not from anything south or southeast of us.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/
It’s definitely a different type of cold out there- not the skin cracking cold that we’ve been dealing with, but the “oh my joints ache” type damp cold.
Frankly, I would be ecstatic if we get 1.5″ of liquid out of this storm, regardless of what form it takes.
So much for DBJ7 saying just rain or a little snow (OOPS)…most of the local TV mets. are now in general agreement with this one; few differences but not much.
Channel 10 looks like it has Roanoke in the 3-6″ color coded zone, but then when the met. open his mouth, he utters, “Roanoke…1-3, possible 2-4″ of snow and mix. What is the deal? The criteria for a Winter Storm Warning entails 4+” of snow and/or certain ice accretions(NOT SURE on those). Also…NWS…Winter Storm Warning…Roanoke 4-6″, but look at the specific guideline per day…tonight…little or no accumulation….Wednesday…1-3″…Wednesday night….less than 1-inch. Again, another big inconsistency. 0+(1-3)+1=2-4 NOT 4-6!!
As Zach points out, latest GFS run is much more moist than previous runs. Would be widespread 4-8 inches if it verifies, even allowing for early rain/melting.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p48_048l.gif
I smell the snow coming.
The weatherchannel.com is saying 1-3″ or 2-4″ for Giles, Monty, Pulaski Co.
They have a pretty good record. Too often they forecast it after it is on the ground. Where will the LOW be when it crosses VA? On shore? Off shore?
My wife says the grocery store is very full. Milk is selling fast ! :>)
Reasons I haven’t yet gone heavier with snow totals:
(1) Speed of storm may be a bit too fast.
(2) Early melting/rain issues.
(3) Think it all may be coming together just a bit too late for the higher end amounts in our region — more likely a bit north and northeast.
Reasons I haven’t gone for lighter amounts:
(1) Upper level lows often underestimated for precipitation on models.
(2) Don’t buy lighter North American Model amounts in our region today because model seems to be handling storm evolution poorly.
(3) Just can’t believe that a strong upper low/intensifying coastal storm with Gulf of Mexico origins will produce less than 3 inches of snow in our region.
Kevin, you truly have a gift in explaining weather events. I watch this blog constantly. The comments posted here are from some very well informed people. Keep up the excellent work guys.
Ouch! I was listening to the weather and heard a prediction that the Tri-Cities (which includes me in lower Washington County) would get a “dusting to an inch or so.” Why so conservative?
To take line from Freddie King, the temperature is Goin Down. Down! Down! Down! Down!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHXKlNP4-Aw
We’re down to 46 at 6:00. That’s 8 degrees off our high temp today.
7 still shows 1-3 in , but we have a WSW sorry but I did this irresponsible for a news outlet to under sell it. Fine they can say they think it will be less, but some may not take the warnings seriously becuse of it. Sorry Kevin I know this isn’t the forum for that but you have to at least report that WSW is lookin for 4+.
Kevin, is there any chance that the main low takes away the moisture from the ULL? I know that can happen in Miller B situations, but I was wondering about this particular situation. Thanks for providing a blog for us weather nuts.
Already down to 38 degrees in the town of Floyd. WDBJ’s website list Roanoke at 46.
Old man Arctic has left the stage, the upper low has stuttered on her parts, and warm air from the crowd in the Gulf are spoiling the show. Sorry snow lovers and those model dreamers waiting on the next Winter superstorm. Iggylove still predicts a tad over three inches here in the NRV.
I have been enjoying your explanations and opinions on the next weather event, Kevin. Love the blog comments, too. Many thanks.
Here (elevation 2500 ft) near the doppler (FCX) it is now 38 F and have seen a few light smatterings of something wet. It does feel like a damp cold – brrr! The military is sending another round of jets overhead – 4 in the last 20 minutes.
Regarding temps in the 50′s today. I remeber well that it was in the 50′s the Friday before the March 1993 storm. It actually started as rain and quickly turned to snow and we got hammered.
Also, I don’t remember what year but I recall getting an ice storm after a day where it was close to 60.
So things can change fast.
Btw, what is up with the temps now forecast to be in the mid 50′s over the weekend? Last night it wasn’t suppsoed to get out of the 30′s!!
Jeff: With an existing low moving up the coast from the Gulf, the surface low will be feeding moisture to the upper-level low. The NAM today was playing around with a bit of a jump of energy over us — not entirely skipping us like sometimes happens in those Miller B kinda things, but lesser amounts in western Va. and more east.
Iggy: Upper low has stuttered? Looks pretty good on radar out west. I agree with part one (Old man Arctic has left) and partly with part 3 (the Gulf flow will mix up the early part of the precip) of what you say, though. My amounts are not Superstormish, but a little higher than yours. Surprised you’re going as high as 3 in the NRV. But you definitely have a chance to be right if the warmth holds out longer against the cold air dynamics. Thanks for being here and your kind words.
Peppers Ferry: Surface low expected to be a tiny bit inland from the coast. A prime position for a big snow in this region. A more phased storm with the upper low earlier and a stronger Arctic air setup, and this would Dec. 18-19, 2009 all over again.
John: I haven’t really had time to look at the days ahead, but from the NWS discussion I gather that different models are vastly different on temperature during that period and they’re kinda taking the middle for now. I noticed those higher forecast temps too.
Where I grew up, in Arkansas, a 52-degree before a forecasted snow would be the kiss of death for it, unless there was a strong Arctic front on the way. Here, because of how the mountains lie, we usually have some dry air trapped, so that even a mild winter day can chill quickly due to evaporational cooling. There, 50s meant the Gulf had completed saturated the atmosphere and extreme measures would be needed to break it. I was quite impressed way back in late February 2001 with the first 50s day I saw here that was followed by a few inches of snow.
Some very bright echoes near Va-NC border now on radar. I’m guessing that’s some bright-banding from sleet or clumpy wet snowflakes aloft. Any reports from under this line moving north would be appreciated.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=fcx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
Or could it be just plain ol’ heavy rain?
Odd thing, I looked at the NAM snow amounts and it says under 1″ for Radford, while the GFS shows 4-5 or 6-8. I’m wondering about this storm a bit now, and if we may not wind up a tad too warm. It’s still at 46+ here. I guess we’ll see…
Whatever it is, contact in about 30 minutes Captain. (This would be where Sulu looks around to see if anyone else notices what’s coming at them!). LOL.
NORTH CAROLINA WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
NOTE: “FAIR” INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
NCZ001-053-055-056-065-067-260100-
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ASHEVILLE LGT RAIN 36 35 96 S6 29.95F FOG WCI 31
JEFFERSON LGT RAIN 34 34 100 CALM 29.95F
MORGANTON LGT SNOW 36 36 100 CALM 30.04F VSB 1
HICKORY LGT RAIN 36 34 92 N3 29.99F FOG
RUTHERFORDTON DRIZZLE 36 36 100 NW5 30.00S WCI 32
MOUNT AIRY RAIN 39 34 81 CALM 29.99F
$$
NCZ021-022-025-041-071-084-088-260100-
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CHARLOTTE LGT RAIN 40 34 79 NE7 29.98R
GREENSBORO RAIN 42 31 64 NE5 30.00F
WINSTON-SALEM LGT RAIN 40 34 79 NE5 30.01S
RALEIGH-DURHAM LGT RAIN 47 35 63 E9 30.03F
FAYETTEVILLE CLOUDY 47 40 76 NE9 30.00F
CHAPEL HILL CLOUDY 47 31 53 NE5 30.02F
BURLINGTON LGT RAIN 44 32 62 N7 29.99F
LAURINBURG CLOUDY 48 39 71 E10 29.99S
Kevin,
Don’t know if I just missed in an earlier post but what time do you see the snow starting here in Roanoke?
We had 8 fly-bys at very low altitudes in Radford a little while ago, all in about 10 minutes or so. Reminded me of living in Virginia Beach near Oceana NAS…
Kevin, it’s raining and about 44 degrees in Martinsville.
Current Weather Conditions:
Boone, Watauga County Hospital Heliport, NC, United States
(KTNB) 36-12N 081-39W
Conditions at Jan 25, 2011 – 07:22 PM ESTJan 25, 2011 – 06:22 PM CSTJan 25, 2011 – 05:22 PM MSTJan 25, 2011 – 04:22 PM PSTJan 25, 2011 – 03:22 PM ASTJan 25, 2011 – 02:22 PM HST
2011.01.26 0022 UTC
Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 3 MPH (3 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Precipitation
Temperature 32 F (0 C)
Dew Point 30 F (-1 C)
Relative Humidity 92%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.96 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob KTNB 260022Z AUTO 12003KT 4SM UP OVC014 00/M01 A2996 RMK AO2
sleet/ice pellets at Boone…UP=ice pellets
sorry had use the aviation wx site
Jefferson/Ashe Co Airport reports 33 and light rain.
Mt. Airy Airport 39 light rain
Wilkesboro NC 35 cloudy
I work night shift 10p to 7a. will I have trouble early Wed. Morn. getting home. I live in Salem.
Kathy I think the Roanoke Valley will stay above freezing during that time frame. Be careful on the bridges though just in case.
Phil, thinking late morning timeframe on snow starting, continuing through afternoon, ending in early evening.
There once was a blog by Myatt,
full of lovers and haters of snow.
A meteorological mix, not to be missed,
“We love the weather!” their motto.
They all got along, with their spoons & ice cubes,
and trading of stories from storms passed.
The fun would begin with a Winter Storm Warning,
and cries of 1 inch, 3.5, or again – bypassed?
Other John: I heard them, too. My 2-yr.-old kept saying “airwh-pwane.”
It reminded me of the fly-bys in Tidewater. I grew up near the Fentress Airfield.
Light precip in Pulaskitown …started around 745p …moisture in air became noticeable at 6p
Moderate rain and 39 in Wytheville. I’ve been doubting the high snow forecasts all day. Expecting about an inch in Roanoke and maybe 3 here in Wytheville. Hope I’m wrong!
Kevin, I can’t help but be a little nervous. NWS is saying 1-3 for Radford. Do you think we’ll still be in the 4-8 range?
I am so confused. Even the weather channel is only showing like an inch now. Can it really change that quick from 4″-8″ to 1″? Are the local stations trying to be cautious for any particular reason?
Currently light rain and 41 in Marion.
Got a bad feeling about this one.
Looks like the moisture is about to do the ol’ SW VA split.
Jamey Singleton says it looks like the low will go farther north than expected and, looking at how the precip field is moving in TN, I’m inclined to agree.
Give me some hope, Kevin. Looks bad to my untrained eye. Unless that TN moisture stops moving north and starts going due east, I think we’re in trouble.
Here at Meadows of Dan near the Parkway in Patrick Co. we have had some pretty hard rain. No snow or other frozen stuff that I have seen. Temp. 37 degrees.
PhilD
Been raining here at 7:15. (my location is part of my blog name!)
I will enjoy the snow so much more after seeing the warm temperatures forecast for the days right after the storm. Just like a house guest, snow can overstay its welcome with me.
Fomby, I grew up in the Salem area of VAB, had a lot of fly-bys mostly for Oceana. The F-14′s and F-18′s were loud, but the C-130′s would rumble the whole house and shake pictures off the walls if they were low enough.
Fomby; Read here — NWS calling for 3-5 inches on Wednesday for Pulaski County on Wednesday. But it says 4-8 inches in the statement on the winter storm warning.
http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iwszone?Sites=:vaz013
I bet you used the map and click thing for the forecast to get the 1-3 inches. Similar thing for my location. Don’t know why they don’t seem to agree.
Yeah, it’s confusing, RC.
Love the poem Gloaming Girl!
Getting very cold here off Windy Gap, don’t know the temp, but it is very chilly in the basement! Better go get another cup of Joe!
And the King of MeowDom came in early flashing by like a streak of lightening.
Stuttering as in the time and placement of the upper low in regards to phasing, not strength of the low itself. Far from reaching triple phasing with this event, but as you know, things could be much different. Ahh that timing thing and the models constant battle with it.
Kevin, I live in southeastern Wythe County and we have a moderate cold rain at the moment. Not noticed any snow mixing in with it, yet. Will keep you posted, I have some Gulf shrimp calling my name.
Brandon: It’s not how the precipitation is moving in that shield that matters — it’s how it pivots and redevelops as the low moves east. It does look like heavier precipitation is farther north of some model depictions but but not sure yet about the overall placement of the low yet.
Besides Brandon — Jamey’s “low-end” forecast looks very similar to the weather service’s and not much lower than mine. No big difference there. The heavier snow is probably going north of us.
Here in Pulaski…..some moisture is making it to the ground and a temperature of 42.4
Kevin,
I’m 6 miles west of Bassett on the Patrick Co. line.Got home at 5:00 p.m. temp was 43, it’s 35 now and moderate rain.
The temperature in Buchanan is at 39. We’ve fallen from 46 at 4:00.
Agree, Iggy. No triple phaser. Just whatever an upper low can squeeze out as it passes through.
Raining lightly in New River now, temps slowing dropping down to 45.2 now.
Just a hunch feeling, but that oddball 1-3 inch forecast that the NWS has painted for my house both in their point/click forecast and via their snow map, I think that is going to wind up the more realistic side of things. just a hunch.
All is not lost Brandon…at least not yet
From inaccuweather:
http://www.accuweather.com/us/radar/sir/se/radar.asp?play=true
Notice in the loop how there are radar returns developing in Central Al towards ATL? That dry slot is starting to fill in between the UVV and Gulf Low.
IF the radar in that area (Central MS/AL/GA) keeps filling in the void, we are still in. If it doesn’t and the Upper Low starts moving more NE than E, it’s over. Also the gulf low has not made the turn up the SE coast just yet.
And it would figure the minute I type that I start to notice a spin in the moisture. Good sign.
Mark Reynolds of WJHL in Johnson City, TN showed a satelite picture tonight with some dry air streaming up from the gulf toward middle TN. He states this could affect snow totals with the ULL tomorrow. He is saying 1-4 in the Tri-Cities and shows our end of Washington Co in the 6+ category. Time will tell.
Raining now in C’burg, and the temp is 38 – that’s down from 39 just in the last 3 minutes. According to Weatherbug, the rate of temperature change is -1.8F/h. If that holds steady, it should hit freezing in about 3-4 hours.
Hopefully, the temps at altitude will drop faster, so we don’t get freezing rain.
L-O-N-G time lurker here…can’t tell you how many discussions I have printed off to use in my classroom lectures/explainations. Thanks a ton! Central Shenandoah Valley…Rockingham County…temps are dropping ..51 @ 4:30 and now it is 36 @ 8:30
I don’t know I’m getting this feeling its all about to fall apart for us. it’s been that kind of winter, and too many forecasters held back on this storm for a reason.
Fellas…..I’m from Roanoke, now live in Ohio. Many loved ones still in the Noke.
Weather is what I do. Told family today that this idea of 4 inches or so in the Roanoke Valley is rubbish. Not sure where some of this stuff is coming from.
Maybe the boardhost will actually post this one….this time.
Gloaming Girl nice work! What exactly is gloaming?
Went upstairs for that cup of joe, and realized it is raining hard here in Hardy, off Windy Gap.
Even with the clouds, we’ve had an impressive temperature drop today. Currently its 41 at the airport and 37 on our porch in Eastern Greene county. Good thing its late January and typically the coldest week of the year.
Dewpoint is at 24 so there is still plenty of headroom for evaporational cooling.
Raining pretty hard in Dublin and temperature has dropped to 44.
Wow, NBC29 is calling for 6-8 inches in Greene on west over into the shenandoah valley. Heck at lunch they were saying maybe 1 inch and now its a nice decent snow! Guess we will know the final total thursday morning. It says the snow wont end up here until after midnight.
My last comment on the matter….all the things I’m reading and maps I’m looking at…I’m thinking it’s a bust. Too warm, arriving too early, looks disjointed, all sources calling for very little but Dave Tolleris, Kevin Myatt and NWS. I personally think the next update will be downgraded to WWA or nothing! I wish I was wrong, I hate to be a doubter, but this one would need a miracle to bring in the projected 4-6″. Even Jamey Singleton lowered his totals, Accuweather says 1.1″, TWC says 1-inch, local media via Channel 7 and 10 say 1-3″. I just don’t get where these large sums are coming from! Like I said, I hope I’m wrong, but too much going against it!
Light rain in Old Southwest Roanoke. Temperature: 44 degrees.
Light rain in Woodlawn near Galax. Temperature was 48 degrees at 4pm now sitting at 34. hope it keeps on dropping!!
Scott S. The Valleys loss will be the Capitals gain I think. Already 36 degrees on the national mall. I think our 4-8 will be upgraded. We’re due, every daggone storm has gone around us. Just 3″ for the year.
Better look at the SE radar from NOAA:
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php
That Alabama/GA precip that I was talking about earlier. Notice that it’s moving a little more north than NE. The upper low is beginning to draw gulf moisture. Has better pivot view of ULL.
Latest Observations in FL. The gulf low is now in the vicinity Panama City FL at 29.76″ or 1008mb moving east at 20 per TLH WFO and is not showing any intensification. Pressures along the GA coast are @ 29.81″ and are beginning to drop. Coastal low forming near St. Simons Is.?
at 9:00 PM West Salem/Glenvar area at 41 light rain.
Snowjunkie: Your last post DID get published (2:22 p.m. in the last thread). But you said in that one that 4-6 inches could occur if things came together. Now you’re saying 4 inches is rubbish. So that seems to contradict. Please clarify.
No offense, but I don’t think of “trustworthy” when I hear Jamey Singleton’s name for obvious reasons. Now, onto the snow… TWC is still saying 1-5 for Roanoke.
Went out for a jog around the block just now in Blacksburg. It was lightly sleeting and drizzling. The temperature was a comfortable 44 or so – kind of odd. Definitely colder air aloft.
I just see a warm juicy system falling apart as it quickly arrives…saving it’s goodies for due north. Is that correct? Please tell me no!
Light rain in Radford, temperature 41 and falling.
The current surface warmth concerns me much less than the track of the upper low. If it swings much farther north than forecast, then that could significantly affect the snow totals. Interested in the new model runs — NAM soon coming out, GFS about 90 minutes later. They’re well within the range they actually mean something now.
Scott: The storm isn’t falling apart. It’s coming together. It’s just a matter of how and where the parts come together. This is really the pivotal time in this whole situation. Tomorrow will bear the results whatever they may be.
light rain falling in SW County…no idea of temp since I don’t have a thermometer handy
SW Roanoke County/Cave Spring is currently showing 39 degrees and we have rain.
Joe Bastardi just tweeted that the NAM is having convective feedback issues.
I’m in DC…it hasn’t been NO snow picnic down in Roanoke either. EVERY SYSTEM has dry-slotted us or out to sea’d us or gave prolific amounts in EVERY other direction this year but us. We got slightly lucky with a 3-inch whopper on Christmas. Meanwhile Virginia Beach and company get a foot+! I hope ya’ll get something up in DC, but just wanted to clarify, we haven’t been walking in a winter wonderland down here either!
It’s 39 degrees here on little brushy mountain and raining. The rain is however, very dense in that it looks a little like snow/mix, but is still rain. Weird…I think, right kevin?
Temp down to 32 here in Marshall,Fauquier County already.Hit 47 for a high today.NWS calling for 4-8 west of D.C.We shall see!Mike in Marshall!
Just looking at this thing…I’m leaning toward bust. My uneducated eye just sees this thing going north.
From another board. FYI for people saying bust
“The precip shield gives the illusion that the storm is halfway up the coast. People need to remember that it’s a broad low and it’s still in the GOM!”
“It will continue to pull in moisture. It’s on track. Even if it’s a tad quicker, we are at the point where it’s not going to make a noticeable difference.”
Sleeting in Blacksburg. Temp is down to 38 degrees.
new NAM still brings ample precipitation and cold temperatures through the region tomorrow afternoon. Looks pretty close to the weather service’s 2-5 idea for the immediate Roanoke area.
I’m leaning to trimming back amounts a bit (not based purely on the NAM), but I don’t see this as a miss.
I’m with you, skibum. I have that feeling now it’s gonna be nada, or very little. I hope I wake up to positive winter weather news tomorrow and I’m wrong! Thanks for all you do on here, Kevin.
This thing is still drinking from the Gulf though… GAH..who knows… This is why I’m not a meteorologist.
I am hearing that the NAM is having Convective Feedback Issues.
Thanks Kevin for your continual information written so everyone can understand. Although I fall in the TWLS category and would enjoy a day of snowy fun, no matter the final result, I have learned a lot about weather through you blog. Keep up the great work!
Michael Hoback (upper Washington County)…thanks for the note on WJHL! I’m watching this storm closely, as I work in Kingsport (55 minutes away) so I have to drive there in the morning and I do not want to get stuck. It would be nice to have a good idea of what to expect before I head out at 7 am.
What are convective feedback issues?
Scott S, point well taken. I guess other than far southwest and the Tidewater no one in VA has seen much snow; not like last year. Fingers crossed we all get a healthy dose of the white stuff.
Kevin,
How far off track is the ULL from what the previous models projected?
Poetry and verse, during weather adverse. I must say I aprove of the break in the technical study. I will now return to wringing my hands and hanging on each post.
37 and had some rain in Boones Mill. How far south do you see the snow line vs slush line?
started rainging in Narrows about 45 minutes ago,,,temp dropped about 2 degrees here in that peruod of time,,,so let it snow
Todd: Not sure it is. Trying to ascertain that. Just because the precipitation shield stretches farther north doesn’t necessarily mean the system is farther north –it could just be spreading moisture farther north.
Elliot: Convective feedback issues usually involve the model overdoing precipitation in one region, affecting the output in other areas. I don’t know the details of what Joe Bastardi (apparently) was referring to and how it would affect the model run.
Convective Feedback Issues translates to a Burp! Why is everyone looking at the NAM anyway?
Looking at the radar for the SE, the Upper Low is still moving east and yes I see that dry slot too. But there is rain developing in Central AL, Georgia and MS moving north toward the ULL. If this gulf moisture feed continues, the ULL IMHO will come to life like Peter Boyle in Young Frankenstein (love that movie). He didn’t move til the next morning when Broom Hilda played the fiddle. Think of the ULL as the fiddle. Also, keep your eye on the GA coast for the new coastal low to develop.
However, I am beginning to take a look at the dry slot as I think it may reduce the snow totals. I am going to drop (NOT BUST) my snow totals down somewhat. working on that now.
Quagmire: Weren’t you at 9-13 inches? If so, you have quite a bit of room to trim.
6 consecutive blog entries with 100+ comments, maybe a new record!
Long time follower here too, never commented before though. Hoping for snow here in the Cave Spring area of Roanoke County. Thanks for all your hard work Kevin, I enjoy this blog year-round, and it’s always my first stop for weather.
I’d like to hold tight to Captains earlier predictions, but I know 4-6 inches is a more likely scenario given all the talk now. Still light rain here in SW County
Can we bank on some major school closings tomorrow? Teachers and students all want to know.
This storm is too much…We need a good laugh!
Young Frankenstein
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gh3m1aN9B5Y&feature=related
Still raining lightly in New River, temps still slowly falling, now to 41.8.
Kevin, are you still sticking to your accumulation total predictions? All the naysayers are starting to depress me
I think we’re going to be okay snow lovers.
I think it’s official- no one has any idea what this storm is going to do! I’ll stay with my original estimate 10+” Blacksburg and 7″ for Roanoke just because that seems as likely as anything else. Only accurate forecast for this storm may be after its over.
I am a big time lurker aka stalker of this blog. Can’t get enough. I’ve been checking in a few times a day these past few days. I love the anticipation and all the back and forth that goes on with some of these storms. I am an admitted snow hater and living up near Bent Mountain I have a vested interest in snow amounts and consistency because of how it relates to getting my dreaded steep downhill driveway cleared afterwards. (Who in the world thought all these long steep driveways were a good idea anyway?)
I am REALLY hoping for accumulation on the lower end of the spectrum tomorrow. The recent comments have given me some hope!! Of course, I have already been warning my customers all week that this storm would probably be a bigger one than anticipated, but I am okay with being proven wrong.
Thanks to Kevin, CPT Glen Quagmire, Other John and the other regular posters for keeping me up to date and informed.
New NWS snow maps show a major decrease in snow amounts from Roanoke southward, and increase to the north. The hole around my house also appears to have expanded and looks to cap out at about 1″ of snow. Any idea if those maps are computer generated or generated by people after reviewing model data?
NOAA: DUAL LOW STRUCTURE IS FURTHER NORTH THAN 18Z GFS/NAM AND SIMILAR TO 12Z ECMWF…AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH THAN THE THAN THE NEW 00Z NAM12…BUT THE NAM IS CATCHING UP.
Don’t panic. This just tells me the Euro has the right idea. Euro showed 6″ for Roanoke.
It may be a tad north but the Euro was banking on that in the 12z run.
The temp. at Roanoke Regional Airport NOT budging…DROP…DROP…45-degrees for several hours. 38.2-degrees on my atomic clock in Fincastle! Love Young Frankenstein Quagmire….Mel Brooks best movie!
RE: Other John’s comment
New NWS map seems to show an largely elevation dependent event south of Roanoke with 3-plus in higher elevations and a little less in lower elevations. Still shows 3-plus north of Roanoke even in lower elevations.(Link below, scroll down)
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/emer/emer.php
Funny thing is new NWS discussion is talking about holding 4-8 amounts with locally higher amounts.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RNK&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
I’m confused.
Waiting on Captain Quagmire’s new totals??
This is a storm that will be talked about for a long time. Models all over the place, totals up and down, precipitation type. It’s the postmortem that will tell us what we missed and why.
40-degrees in Roanoke with light rain…YES…temp. dropped 5-degrees in several minutes!
Not sure if anyone here saw it, but at 8 PM I went on my break from work in Christiansburg. It started raining and I thought “Here comes the rain”. As I got out of my car and headed back in, my blue shirt was turning white, a bit of snow/sleet and rain. A few other shoppers noticed it also. Didn’t last very long.
Brandon….what are the positives you see still……I’m thinking this is one of those where we end up begging for just a coating of the rooftops
Wow this blonde is getting plumb dizzy with the information. As this GrannyDuck toddles off to bed, I hope I wake up to good news for us Lovers of Snow!
…my High School Senior will be sorely disappointed if there is a miss!
Kevin, I’m confused too! I’ve seen forecasts for my area range everywhere between 1 and 12 inches today alone since this afternoon. My official prediction: weather of some sort will happen tomorrow that involves something falling from clouds that may or may not result in accumulations but will certainly result in some measureable liquid and/or liquid equivalent!
This has got to be the most jacked up forecast I have ever seen. I’m gonna laugh if this turns into an all rain event in ROA. This is almost as good as the Tornado Warning in Cave Spring a few years ago. 1-6 inches is quite a spread people!
I don’t think I could stand a bust out of this one…bring on over 4 inches and I’ll be happy. NO BUST!!!
I left ValleyView at 9:15 the temp was 46. I drove home next to Wm. Byrd H.S. the temp was 41 at 9:35. Our elevation is several hundred feet higher than the Valley and that probably accounts for the difference. It is raining but the drops are getting “chunky”. Now temp has dropped to 40. I believe the snow will show.
We seem to be in a bit of a squeeze play. Moisture in two areas.
Some of the CMC runs showed the moisture converging on us and then rapidly changing to snow. This might be what happens. The radar may fill in as we go through time.
Temp is dropping here near the airport 40.6 now, it was 41.1 an hour ago. C’mon snow…don’t you leave me hanging.
I’m surprised we haven’t switched to Blizzard Warnings yet! I think the winds are suppose to pick up tomorrow! 24 inches in ROA! Everybody write down what you want!!!! Everybody else is doing the same. This reminds me of the famous 2000 election where Tim Russert had the marker board and Florida kept switching back and forth between Gore and Bush.
I just got in from Marion Va a few minutes ago. I left Marion at 8:30 and it was raining pretty good all the way up to the Christiansburg area and then it was pretty light and spotty the rest of the way into Roanoke. Temps were 36 to 38 degrees from Marion to Christiansburg and 38 to 41 from Christinsburg to Roanoke.
We are gettin’ close to the top of the hour so we shall see what Robin The Great has to say to his lonely snowbuster peasants and serfs.
39 degrees and still lght rain at Dublin NRV airport. Hope it gets cooler soon!
I thought we would have some clarity this close to the storm. This very wide range of possibilities has been going on for days. I hope to see at least 4 inches but wouldn’t be surprises to barely see the ground white.
Funny analogy, Mike.
Temperatures are falling, responding to the evaporative cooling of the current rain. The cold isn’t far upstairs, it just has to drain down. It is doing that.
I will make it official: I’ve been through a lot of winter storm run-ups — hits, busts and a big’un — in my 6 weather blogging years and 9 of doing Weather Journal for the newspaper. This one takes the cake as the most excruciating and confusing. I’m ready for it to do whatever it’s gonna do or not do.
I’ll post something new in the next hour or two to carry us through the night.
Greg,
Positives: Temps are already dropping substabtially. ULL hasn’t even arrived yet. Also, the Euro has been very consistent with this system and NOAA says so far things are playing out like they should.
I think moisture will fill in with time as the ULL starts to spin and scoop up some atlantic and Gulf moisture.
I still like 6 to 10″. That’s down a bit from my 10″+ but still pretty close.
Just watch how things play out on radar over the next twelve hours.
If this thing busts, I’m moving to Buffalo.
NWS updated the WSW at 10:45.
* HAZARD TYPES…A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED.
* ACCUMULATIONS….4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN WEST
VIRGINIA…AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. A TRACE OF ICE.
The NWS point forecast for this snow event are definitely elevation dependent tonight. I can click one mile from the house on Mt. Chestnut Road and come up with 3-7 inches based on an area elevation of El. 2020.
Sugar Loaf Mountain Road(Cave Springs) El. 1500
Current Temp 39.2 degrees
Current Relative Humidity 80%
Very light rain
Minimum Temp 38.4 degrees (recorded since 8pm)
Maximum Temp 51.4 degrees
First, I want to let Kevin know it is his fault that I am now a complete weather junkie. I used to be a simple weather watcher, relying on WeatherBug and the radio. But now? To quote Safety Tim, I “wring my hands and hang on each post”. When you guys start with the technical jargon, I feel like I am privy to CIA secrets. Oh yeah, I got it bad.
Todd in SW city: Gloaming is an old term for twilight – but not the vampire kind!!
Jean Frank & Snow Bunny: thank you!
As for the weather, it is raining here (near the Coffee Pot) and has cooloed off a bit. (I really need to get a thermometer) The good news is that I have a slight snow headache. That tends to be more reliable than the knees.
New GFS is similar to NAM. Pretty solid snow hit. Widespread 2-5 maybe some locally a little more.
Don’t think it’s a bust or major storm. Another light-moderate snow in winter of such.
Light Rain here in Covington. Temp.38 down 2 from 45 min ago. I feel it. And I like 10′ here by tomorrow evening.
As Dan Rather might say: “Trying to figure out this storm would give aspirin a headache”. LOL.
The 4 to 8″ range now includes Roanoke according to the NWS.
Is anyone elses head spinning? I deal with vertigo so this just makes it worse!
Hey John – this is one of my favorite Rather lines – “Rumors spread like mildew in damp basements.”
I can’t sleep wondering what will happen. Yes, this is Kevin’s fault we’ve become addicted to the weather. Not sure why it’s so addicting since we can’t influence the outcomes.
My prediction is 0″ to 20″ and I’m sticking to it!
Depends on which forecast product you look at, Brandon. I see less than 3 lower elevations on the accumulation forecast map, 3-6 on the winter storm warning map, and I’ve seen 2 to 5 and 1 to 3 in different forecast text, and 4 to 6 in warning text. And that’s just the immediate Roanoke area.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/emer/emer.php
Any guess as to what Southeastern Henry Co. will get?
Sorry- meant to say Southwestern Henry Co…
Anybody care to venture a guess as to whether schools will be out tomorrow?
Channel 10 calling for 1-3 for Roanoke…SMH
Joe Bastardi tweet: My son Garrett just showed me the precip shield and it is way ahead of the models.
http://www.twitter.com/bigjoebastardi
LOL Mike. That is a good one!
Well, I am going to call it a night. Maybe in the morning things will be clearer – but I doubt it!
There’s got to be a morning after…..
Roanoke often has a weird accumulation pattern in a borderline temperature / wet snow event. Where Channel 10 is located — down in downtown urban heat island near the Roanoke Times, the least snowy spot in all of Southwest Virginia — and where Channel 7 is located, right by the traffic of I-581, may well get 1 or 2 inches actually sticking while some parts of Roanoke a couple hundred feet higher or away from the urban warming get 3 or 4 inches. That’s happened quite a bit in the past.
Well any squirrels I saw today were in my garage eating cat food and drinking beer..could be a sign of much snow to come!! Still 34 here in Woodlawn with light rain.
Quagmire: Blazing Saddles pretty good Mel Brooks action too!!
Yes, Brandon, I was impressed looking at the national radar loop a few minutes ago. Massive change since I looked an hour or two ago — lots of new activity in Ga/Ala. filling in the upper low. Very convinced precip shield won’t miss us. But how much will be snow?
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php
as a long-time weather geek (I did my HS physics term paper on hurricanes), I’ll echo those saying how much fun this is!
>> 172.My prediction is 0″ to 20″ and I’m sticking to it! >> very funny, Jason!
always hoping for a big one; in Cave Spring/Penn Forest area…
Really getting irritated with WSLS and WDBJ.
I don’t mean to harp on about this but I believe that if there is a winter storm warning issued by the NWS then the local mets need to pass along the information contained in that warning verbatim. Otherwise, what’s the point in having advisories? These individual forecasts undermining the NWS have got to stop. When a warning is issued, conservatism should go out the window.
They wouldn’t undermine a Tornado Warning so why do that to a WSW?
If the NWS forecast verifies, I will be writing to every media outlet in the area about this. It’s okay to draw up your own forecasts- that’s part of the job- but NOT when an active warning has been issued.
Brandon…what exactly does Joe’s tweet mean?
Wow Kevin, looking at the latest radar loop the precip shield for the eastern U.S. looks like a giant question mark. About sums it up for this storm
Keep up the great work!
I think schools will go on time but will get out early…just a guess.
Gotta say I’m not sure what’s going on with the temps in the ‘Noke and Lynchburg. Both 41 at 10PM, Roa 40 and Lyn 38 at 11PM. 36.1 here in between in Goodview (I’ve got 3 different temp sensors and all with .5 degree). Light drizzle with .03 inches so far. I used the analysis from Kevin and the regular contributors here to guess 6 inches for our ‘hood and I’m sticking with it, although it sounds like more hope than guess LOL.
Driving home, my car thermometer was bouncing between 36 and 39 here in blacksburg not 30 mins ago. Crazy!
Back to the weather.
Still holding at 40 in Old Southwest Roanoke. Looks like Clarksville, TN has thunderstorms moving into cold air. Heavy snow there.
Bastardi’s tweet means stay tuned.. models may be underdoing some things with this storm.
I grew up in the heart of the midwest where, in the spring, the low pressure systems spin up tight and throw off supercells. this sort of a double low pressure set-up is rather unique. im rather interested in this set-up.
I can understand your frustration Brandon. Unfortunately this country has no concept of what an alert means anymore. My mom gets upset every time a 24 hr. news channel has a “NEWS ALERT.” The general public would not know want they need to do in the event of a national castrophe.
To Brandon…in defense of the the TV mets. and all who give forecasts on this blog…I am not sure if the NWS really knows what it is forecasting right now…their range is enormous, just for Roanoke! And 13, 10, and 7 all mentioned the WSW and WWA. And their amounts were not too far different from each other and the NWS.
Yup, looking at the NWS forecast for Roanoke, they are calling for 2-4″(according to the published map)…10 called for 1-4 and 7 called for 1-3 for Roanoke…not too far apart.
Temps here in New River near Radford finally dropped below 40, sitting at 39.8 now. Still light rain, I can hear water coursing through the downspout by the bedroom for the first time since that end of November rainstorm.
0Z GFS coming out.
interesting…just when I was thinking about completely busting, it draws me back in.
And (on my new post for the overnight) I just stuck with 3-7 for Roanoke but emphasized expecting the lower part of that range to be more common. That puts us all in the same ballpark.
If anyone around here gets under the stuff showing up near Nashville tonight they could 3 or 4 inches in a couple of hours.
Temperatures are very much on track to be in range to get pulled downward by dynamic cooling when the upper low arrives. Honestly I didn’t expect it to be only 40 at Roanoke Regional by midnight.
If you look at the current conditions metamorphisis is on going. I’m noticing on the SE radar loops that the gulf moisture inlet is starting to subside with WNW winds aloft coming in thur MS to AL. I can’t really tell if the ULL is still moving E or going more ENE-NE now. Gulf low is pretty much gone and new coastal low starting to form off SC Coast. But GFS says party still on. sure, whatever.