UPDATE 12 NOON: Snow spreading across region; more likely this afternoon
UPDATE 12:30 PM: Radar filling in dry slot rapidly and new bands are forming, including one with heavy snow and possibly thunder moving north out of Henry County. Rumors of this snow’s demise are greatly exaggerated! I don’t expect a lot of 6-plus totals but I still think a lot of folks are going to get 2-4 inches and maybe more in some spots with some periods of VERY heavy snow. END UPDATE
UPDATE NOON: Let me clarify since I seemed to have confused some people. Additional snow bands are continuing to develop south of Roanoke and move north and northwest, pivoting around the upper low to the south. Intermittent snow will continue this afternoon, with 2-3 inches possible in the immediate Roanoke area (I have about a half-inch where I’m at just south of the city now). Amounts overall will probably be toward the lower end of forecasts across much of the area — closer to 3 than to 6 or 7 — but the snow isn’t over yet, so we need to monitor trends. Most places that haven’t changed over probably will soon. Some light rain, drizzle or sleet is still possible between the heavier precipitation bands. END UPDATE
The number of comments has been overwhelming, thank you for your support. I’m running well behind just approving comments and probably won’t be able to answer too many individual questions today.
Looking at radar trends — we are still actually on the “warm” side of the upper low, where precipitation is moving from the south. There is a “dry slot” of sorts south of Roanoke — some bands actually redeveloping within it, so not totally dry — and then the colder side of the storm to the west. As the low moves south of us today, some of that western shield should also slowly develop eastward into the New River and Roanoke valleys for additional snow. The bulk of the heaviest snow is likely to occur north and west of Roanoke as the low pivots this afternoon and early evening.
January 26, 2011 - 11:20 AM
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Looks like it is trying to clear around the Roanoke County/Salem line off 419.. light precip.. Traffic seems to be moving fine.. nothing white on roads or grass.
Can’t wait for the XC ski race in Blacksburg tonight! Thanks for all the hard work and dedication Kevin!
Cole
so what does that mean for SW Roanoke county? still at least 4-8″?
We have 1/2″ in southern Wythe County….light snow and 32 degrees.
Its hard to be humble when you are perfect in every way….that is what started playing in my head when I read the new thread, Kevin. We thank you for everything. And appreciate the times when you are able to answer the questions.
Sleet is on the ground here, very icy. Nothing coming down at the moment off Windy Gap in Hardy.
I’ve got 35 on my Davis here in Lexington, and we’ve had just rain so far. I may eat crow later, Kevin, but I see us getting on the extreme low end of everyone’s snow predictions. That is, maybe a couple/three inches if we’re lucky. The radar just doesn’t look very impressive, and most of the precip seems to be trending north and west of us. I certainly don’t see DT’s 6-12 materializing.
We got a light dusting on some surfaces earlier, then as the snow stopped it has mostly melted off except for some mulched areas from what I can tell. And with the way the precipitation is moving and shifting and considering that west of us the shield appears to be weakening and shrinking in size while the new precipitation is re-developing east in the Piedmont, I sense a pretty substantial shortfall in total precipitation for the storm where I’m at, and a definite shortfall on snow. Temps still well above freezing too. If I had to swag a guess right now, I’d say 1.5″ of snow at the absolute most, with less than 0.5″ of total liquid. That would actually keep pretty well in line with the bulk of NAM and GFS snowfall maps from the past couple of days, which were always well below Euro and Canadian models and what many forecasters thought would occur, if that holds up. We’ll see, there’s still a few hours left.
This things going alot further NW than expected.
Good burst of snow again now in Fairlawn temp at 35.1
OFFICIAL “BIG-UN POSSIBILITY” BUST ANNOUNCEMENT
This event is by no means a total bust, but western VA will see snow, just not as much as earlier predicted.
As Jake eludes to in the previous blog and as Kevin states above, I’m beginning to see signs that the Upper Level Low to our south may be losing some punch as it crosses the Smokey’s. I should have lowered my predictions last night as my bust criteria is 4″.
Earlier models had great potential but La Nina got her again along with Doug and Sam’s negative vibes.
Much less snow will fall now than what was expected. Can anyone find any snow amounts in TN/KY/AL last night over 3”? I can’t find any.
First though, final worst guess on snow totals:
North Carolina
NW Mountains north of I-40/west of I-77 1-2” lower elevations (Asheville, Wilksboro) with higher amounts up to 3-4” above 3500’ especially Boone/Beech/Jefferson Co area
Greensboro Tri-ad less than 1″ but more mix than snow
WV…Bluefield/Beckley/Lewisburg/Elkins 3-5” with Snowshoe at 5-9”+ above 3500’, Charleston 1-4”
Virginia
Northern VA…US 29 corridor Amherst/Nelson to DC west to Shenandoah National Park below 2000” 3-5” above 2000’ 4-7”.
East of US 29 to I-95 corridor (Fredericksburg, Ruther Glen, Doswell) 1-2”
West of I-85 to US 29 corridor (Farmville, Clarksville, Lynchburg, SML, Bedford/Rocky Mt) less than 2”
South of Lynchburg (Martinsville, South Boston, Danville) 1” but mostly mix
I-81 corridor from Bristol to Marion to coalfields 2-4”
I-81 corridor NE of Marion to NRV/Floyd/Hillsville/Independence 2-4”
I-81 corridor Roanoke to Lexington 1-3” more like 1-2” in the valleys just too warm
I-81 corridor Staunton to Winchester 4-6”
Tazewell, Bland, Giles, Craig, Allegheny, Bath, Highland Counties 3-5”
Why less snow?
1. The Low is still to our south which is good but most of the heavy burst returns have either already moved north or are moving north thru warmer air. Also the wrap around moisture in TN will hit a brick wall known as the Smokey Mts. Wrap around moisture may get torn apart and question is will the bursts moving thru now be able to wrap back around for the 2nd punch?
Per Inaccuweather regional radar in motion:
http://www.accuweather.com/enhanced-radar.asp
Floyd Doppler site from NWS BCB:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=fcx&loop=yes
A better look at NWS radar from Knoxville:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MRX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Most of the yellow returns that moved thru NRV fell as heavy sleet/rain with snow on the tail end as the cold air was finally pulled down. It’s moving more N-NNE not NE-ENE toward Roanoke then points E-NE. Look in Western NC, the radar is showing less precip. as the low struggles to reband to our south and southwest. But as the ULL moves more east, the true wrap around will come into play but it won’t be enough.
2. Air mass ahead of ULL was too warm & ULL is just now pulling colder air to the surface but not fast enough to get under the front end stuff. Also the ground is too warm. 850-500 mb air column is getting cold but it’s the surface air that’s killing the accumulations ahead of the main stuff. The snow/gropple that falls will be of a heavy wet variety but it will have a hard time sticking at first. If the snow gets heavier and temps drop below freezing, then we could see more snow accumulations.
3. Upper Level Low to our southwest is still moving due E and will pass to our south which is good but bad timing. Basically north and west of the I-81 corridor will see the heavier stuff. North of I-64 to DC/NOVA will get more than Western VA.
4. QPF less than models predicted. 700mb VV maps not as strong with snow bursts + HUGE Vertical Velocities from previous models are not as apparent now for Western VA.
5. Gulf Low energy developed quicker thus translated its energy out further ahead of the ULL. Coastal Low developed around SC coast, farther east than anticipated and boogied up the coast much faster. ULL won’t catch up to it to have a chance to draw in Atlantic moisture until it passes SE of ROA.
6. Gulf moisture inlet to Upper Low got shut off last night late. Winds aloft in AR, MS, Lower Alabama shifted from S/SW to W-NW as low moved east from ARKLATEX region but it brought in warm air too.
Potential event for next week Feb. 3-4? Looking less potent.
Temps next week for VA colder now? Temps go back to seasonal norms maybe a little above normal. This storm event is not pulling the really cold air down behind it.
NAO shows signs of returning back to – phase after Feb 2 but will be eastern setup not a true Greenland west setup.
Any hope on the horizon after Feb. 3-4? Not yet
One last laugh before I go and this pretty much describes this storm…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mC-mO-WtVJo
Elvis has left the building.
in other words..a nice rain event for the valley area
32.0 at Penn Forest. Just started back up at a nice clip.
It’s snow snow!
Time to sit back.
In NRV, still predicting 2″-4″?? How is it shaping up?
So Raonoke will not get snow?
So I guess that means no thundersnow for us?…(us being in Roanoke)
Kevin,
Thanks for all you do. As a snow fan, how much can we expect to accumulate in Roanoke City?
That’s good news, still snowing at a fairly moderate pace here in Daleville and sticking to the pavement. Thanks Kevin, doing a great job.
My thermometer here at work in downtown Roanoke just went from 36.4 to 37 even. And I promise I was not blowing on it.
Snowing again here in Bburg!
Steady rain at C_burg Mall. Some mixed in snow.
I am hoping to head to Nashville from Blacksburg leaving around 1 PM today. Does anybody have any info for me on road conditions on 81 south to 40 West to Nashville? I want to be safe, but really need to get there for a conference tomorrow… Thanks to anyone with thoughts on this!
It still looks like a snow sky to me!
***and Kevin, I meant that you, your blog are popular!
Roanoke will see additional snow this afternoon — I’m getting a moderate-heavy band now just south of Roanoke. Snow bands redeveloping to the south with the upper low and pivoting back to the north filling in the dry slot. And we will probably catch some of the back side of the storm, the “cold side” with all of the snow back to the west.
I think Roanoke is going to be on the lower end of early predictions in the 2-3 inch range, varying a lot with elevation. The heaviest snow will be north and west of us. But we will see a few more heavier bands today that could accumulate rapidly.
Captain Q, you didn’t list those of us in the NRV in your snow totals.
Quiet dignity and grace. Yes, that is about how us snow lovers feel right now … Admit it Sam, you were thinking really, really warm thoughts when you looked at your thermometer!
Snow haters starting a little too early. Roanoke and surrounding areas still going to see 4-6 inches.
It is snowing very large wet flakes in Salem. Just went from nothing to full blown snow.
Heavier snow than before with bigger flakes than before in downtown Roanoke.
Well, its snowing in blacksburg though we are in the dry slot…
WDBJ was right again…ridiculous
what do you think road conditions will be about 9PM when trying to go to work?
Nada in Floyd. What a strange storm!!
finally a wet snow hear in Eastern Roanoke County, near William Byrd. The sleet had covered the ground eariler. Nice timing Kevin, right at lunch time.
I live just North of Montvale, near the Parkway. It is snowing quite heavily here. Snow began about 10:00AM, and has only let up in intensity a couple of times for maybe 15 min or so.
Snow is accumulating on leaves and grass, and any elevated surfaces. Current temp is 34.2.
11:58AM
Just 5 min. ago DT was still holding tight to 6-10 for Blacksburg, Dublin and NRV areas….Hmmmm.
There is way too much traffic on the roads..They’re keeping em too warm!..Snowing the heaviest so far for the day right now in North Roanoke.
Seems that the dry slots are allowing snow to melt (Blacksburg). Glad to see the front-end hasn’t done much. WDBJ still calling for siginficant bands of snow laster this afternoon.
heavy, wet snow falling in NW Roanoke City right off Melrose. Sticking now to the ground and sidewalks.
Just received a call that Roanoke City MIDDLE schools are dismissing at 1 p.m.
My Snow Total Final Guess as previously noted above…
NEW RIVER VALLEY 2-4″ ROANOKE 1-3″
The rest are below:
Northern VA…US 29 corridor Amherst/Nelson to DC west to Shenandoah National Park below 2000” 3-5” above 2000’ 4-7”.
East of US 29 to I-95 corridor (Fredericksburg, Ruther Glen, Doswell) 1-2”
West of I-85 to US 29 corridor (Farmville, Clarksville, Lynchburg, SML, Bedford/Rocky Mt) less than 2”
South of Lynchburg (Martinsville, South Boston, Danville) 1” but mostly mix
I-81 corridor from Bristol to Marion to coalfields 2-4”
I-81 corridor NE of Marion to NEW RIVER/Floyd/Hillsville/Independence 2-4”
I-81 corridor Roanoke to Lexington 1-3” more like 1-2” in the valleys just too warm
I-81 corridor Staunton to Winchester 4-6”
Tazewell, Bland, Giles, Craig, Allegheny, Bath, Highland Counties 3-5”
The snow is pouring down in downtown Roanoke. It’s beautiful.
Does anybody know if it’s snowing in Lynchburg?
Sorry snow lovers (I’m in that camp) but this just isn’t looking good for us; I’m now thinking a very wet 1-2 inches, 3 tops for ROA. It will be interesting to see how another certain popular forecaster spins this one. He has us in the 6-12 range, and called all the local mets that were forecasting 1-3 inches morons, fools, and so forth (as he typically does). Looks like they’ll (unfortunately) be dead on here while he’s way off.
WDBJ7 says they’re getting reports of thundersnow…but they don’t say where. I want some in Roanoke. Maybe I’ll stand outside all afternoon.
Now we’ve got heavy wet snow in Lexington with a dusting already. Let’s see if it keeps up!
There is a band of thundersnow moving thru Henry Co right now. Anybody down that way?
This band of T-snow will move thru Franklin, Roanoke Co by 2 PM if it holds. May see a quick hard hit of 2″ in this one. After that, it’s back to light to moderate snow.
I’m seeing a lot of comments about how it’s not doing much around Roanoke, and yet I’m looking out my window and it’s pouring snow and everything’s white (pavement getting slushy).
There is a heavy band moving up from the south that may affect Roanoke in the next hour or so. Reports of thunder, I’m hearing.
NRV is dry-slotted now but should get into the western band a little later. These upper lows pivot and spin and redevelop bands and don’t just move in straight lines like most of our weather events.
This still could turn into a decent event for snow lovers in some places. It appears in the short term that Roanoke area is more in line than NRV — which is very unusual — but that will probably change as the afternoon progresses.
Oh, man.
Last radar cycle dry slot starting to fill in below Wytheville.
I think some of you have written this off too early. OK, it’s not gonna be a foot, probably not 6 inches most places. But the SNOW AIN’T OVER!
Comments Welcomed!!!! We are under a winter storm warning in Culpeper for 5-10 inches of snow. I am just not seeing it. How little snow do we have to get for this to be considered a bust? Trace? One inch? Two inches? Three Inches? It has been raining most of the morning with occasional sleet. I hope I am just being pessimistic but I have my doubts that we will get anywhere close to 5 inches of snow. Look forward to hearing what everyone has to say.
… Still just rain in Boones Mill….
Dry slot is just hitting Christiansburg but the radar shows it filling in rapidly in the last few minutes. Snow looks like it will hit us again within half an hour.
Check out the VDOT traffic cams here: http://www.511virginia.org/Conditions.aspx?r=1 .
Looks like Roanoke and NRV still have a lot of bare ground…compare that to the highway cams on 77 in Bland County. Road conditions here are bad according to the cams and reports I’m hearing in the office. Anyone traveling up this way might reconsider…
Snowing pretty good here by North Cross School in SW Roanoke County. The changeover from rain to sleet/snow mix began here about 10:30. I expect the ground will be all white w/in the next 30 minutes. Kevin, you rock!
The heaviest sleet/ice I’ve ever seen is falling from the sky here in Midtown Charlottesville. I mean, its pretty close to hail.
Crazy!
I haven’t written it off yet!
And I just went outside where it is still sleeting but there are some big snowflakes mixed in.
So I think my little piece of heaven off Windy Gap in Hardy, is commencing its change to snow.
Captain Q didn’t see your total for Blacksburg.
I’m hearing reports of several accidents in the area including a salt truck in Bluewell, WV, just outside Bluefield.
How much can we expect in Lexington? Rain turned to snow in the past half our or so and it’s coming down at a good clip. I’m worried about the drive home at 6…
So, Kevin, you are still thinking that we’ll see some snow in Floyd?
Still only rain in Bedford. We had a few minutes of rain/sleet mix.
Very heavy snow in West Salem now. Not sticking yet….
Yes Kevin it’s filling in a line north from Bristol to Hickory but nothing really happening in south and west of that. Will it be enough?But look to the east at the Wakefield radar. Serious banding now forming south and west of RIC. This will hit northern VA and DC later on.
Anyone in Franklin or Henry Co please give an update. Thundersnow line moving NNE thru Rocky Mt in 15 minutes. Roaonke Valley by 1:30 – 2:00 PM
It has been snowing and sleeting off and on for the past couple of hours at my house, just outside the town of Floyd. The snow has started to pick up just in the last few minutes. The roads were pretty slushy in town and I was sliding around a bit even with awd on C’burg Pike.
Matt and et al Blacksburg which is the New River Valley 2-4″
12:40 pm Heavy snow now falling in Sontag (5 miles south of Rocky Mount)!!
Lexington and southern Shenandoah Valley from I-64 north to Staunton will see 2-4″ and north of Staunton on 81 3-7″ Cho’ville & 29 corridor 2-4″
NOVA and DC 3-7″
I just checked accuweather and they are saying the snow will stop at about 6:00 PM in Fincastle, what do you think?
I measured 4″ of snow on my deck table in Rural Retreat just before noon. The snow is sticking to the trees and is weighing the branches down. The power keeps flickering.
Very wet snow just starting to fall in Rocky Mount.
Of course DBJ will be right eventually…they have changed their forecast 3,000 times over the last three days. Just a day ago (maybe two) they were calling for NOTHING! SET and SLS have been MUCH more accurate with this one…and consistent!
Attention peeps in Charlottesville I-64 to West end Richmond to I-95 A heavy line of Thunderstorms with heavy rain/sleet moving your way. Will be along I-64 by 2 PM. May be cold enough in C’ville for a good round of T-snow. This line will hit DC metro area just in time for rush hour. yuck for you!
Funny thing…my wife and I traveled a day early to Quantico in Stafford County in order to avoid the big Western VA snow. Stafford was forecast to perhaps get a dusting. Now, they’re calling for 5-10 inches. How will we ever make it home to Roanoke?
Rain just changed to mostly snow (rain still mixin in a bit) in Boones Mill. Just hoping it stays snow. Thanks for still giving us hope Kevin!
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1230 PM EST WED JAN 26 2011
NCZ012>014-030-VAZ060>062-067>071-079>082-087>089-092-093-096-261830-
AMELIA VA-BERTIE NC-BRUNSWICK VA-CHARLES CITY VA-CHESTERFIELD
VA-CUMBERLAND VA-DINWIDDIE VA-GATES NC-GOOCHLAND VA-GREENSVILLE
VA-HENRICO VA-HERTFORD NC-ISLE OF WIGHT VA-NORTHAMPTON NC-NOTTOWAY
VA-POWHATAN VA-PRINCE EDWARD VA-PRINCE GEORGE VA-SOUTHAMPTON
VA-SUFFOLK VA-SURRY VA-SUSSEX VA-
1230 PM EST WED JAN 26 2011
AT 1229 PM EST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
NEARLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM RICE
TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEWISTON WOODVILLE…OR FROM 7 MILES EAST
OF FARMVILLE TO 14 MILES EAST OF TARBORO…MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR…
DEATONVILLE AROUND 1235 PM EST…
PAINEVILLE AROUND 1240 PM EST…
TRUXILLO AROUND 1245 PM EST…
PENDLETON AROUND 1250 PM EST…
SHILOH AROUND 1255 PM EST…
PILKINTON AROUND 100 PM EST…
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALSO…THERE WILL BE
INFREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1218 PM EST WED JAN 26 2011
VAZ025-036-037-503-504-261810-
AUGUSTA-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-
1218 PM EST WED JAN 26 2011
.NOW…
FOR THE STAUNTON AND CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA…SLEET WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE
30S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ARE LIKELY.
Hanging tough at 32.0 and steady snow in Penn Forest.
Last time I experienced a cusp-of-freezing snow like this was in South Texas on Christmas Eve 2004. That ended up being a 6-12 incher — as absolutely impossible as that was to believe at the time.
It’s the exact same sequence: above freezing, rain, mix, sleet, mix, snow snow snow! The only difference was that it started late at night. But the temps were pretty much the same “bleeding edge of freezing” as they are now.
31.8
If the next storm comes with this much forecasting difficulty and roller coaster mood swings, I want no part of it!
Snow was coming down in buckets up here at Roanoke College! Then it immediately turned into rain…
Snowing as hard as I’ve ever seen north end of rocky mount. Stood out for fifteen minutes but no thunder.
Here in Blacksburg where I’m at there’s not anything measurable on the ground yet. Most of what fell earlier melted away and it’s still above freezing. Apparently at my house things have turned white, and I’ve heard about dozens of wrecks from Pulaski County back toward Wytheville and lots of cars in ditches. So it appears that I’m just in a geographical oddity for the moment…to paraphrase Oh Brother Where Art Thou…
The T’snow line is moving more NE towards SML, Bedford & Lynchburg now.
Here in Lexington, I left work at 1205 and it was a heavy, wet snow that had fallen for about 15 minutes. Drove through town to run an errand and, in that subsequent 15 minute window, it seemed a little cooler and the snow was clumpy and sticking to the grounds and roads. US 11 was in good, not great shape, but the county roads had at least a dusting on them.
Notice how in EAST Tennesee – Radar has filled in TREMENDOULSY, now looks like West VA did a couple hours ago. This will move through the area. The bands are moving South East, but the low is pulling them North East.. This is an indication of RAPID strengthening over our area. Heavy snow will begin this afternoon.
3-6″ for most
Snowing again in Blacksburg at a steady pace. Tiny flakes so far. Wonder if it’ll be like this from here on out.
Back to a rain/snow mix out here in Blue Ridge.
Kevin, Is that Thunder snow band over you yet?
Im curious to know whats under there..video/pics anyone??
Sleeting hard right now off Windy Gap in Franklin Co, I am about 20 minutes outside of Roanoke. The ground, driveway and porch etc all turning white.
The temp is about 30.
Just watched the noonday news from Bristol. Still all rain around Bristol and in East Tennessee. They espect about an inch. 3-4 inches in Marion and it is still snowing pretty hard.
received email notice that mm 60 of I81 are closed in both directions because of numerous wrecks. Cannot verify on VDOT cams tho.
Not snowing down there yet? Hmmm . . . looks like the CCW rotation is right over Roanoke. We’re watching from the DC area to see what happens
Lots of huge flakes falling now in Boones Mill. Grassy areas are already getting nice and white. I think I will celebrate with a cup of hot chocolate.
Still all rain in the HIll City…
snow/sleet starting to mix with rain in Bedford.
surface reflection beginning to form between Winston-Salem and Jefferson moving east latest pressure at 29.50″ Ashe Co. Airport Radar is filling in where dry slot was previously. This thing is getting wound up now! May have to bump up my totals. Ground is still warm from ROA east. NRV may get 3-6 now, ROA Valley 2-4″ Shenandoah Valley from Buchanan north 4-6″
Still snowing hard in the Cave Spring area of Roanoke. Be careful out there for anyone on the roads -they are deceptive. The slush has built up in spots and it’s slick out there. I took a pretty bad slide on Starkey road coming home from the office and it just looked wet. Was luckily going very slowly and braking slowly when I hit the icy patch.
Heavy sleet/light snow mix here in goodview. The ground has a tinge of white. Guess i was wrong-right amount of moisture,wrong amount of cold. A’La Nina wins again! Oh well,theres always the next storm to get excited about and hopefully we will get a Big One before this winter is over.
Snow is coming down hard on Cotton Hill off 221 in Ro Co!!! I can see only a little grass and the streets are turning white!!!
I left Walmart in Salem and it was 34 and not sticking, though coming down heavily. Got home about 10 min ago (10 min drive from Walmart to home) and it was 32 and really starting to stick. Now a nice coating on the grass. Drive careful, folks. Kids are out of school in Salem and some don’t do well in snow!
DC back in the WS Warning for 5-10″ up from 4-8 and then 3-7… if they keep at it eventually the NWS might get it right. 35 and drizzle right now.
Heavy Thundersnow @ Wintergreen and CHO heading North. Strong to severe T’storms moving thru RIC but all rain. Air is cold enough north of RIC for HEAVY THUNDERSNOW for DC METRO back to C’ville to Winchester in next 2-3 hours.
Thundersnow up here in North Roanoke
Here in C’burg (the boss sent us home early, “just to be safe” – I’m not arguing!), it’s snowing steadily now, with mid-sized flakes. I’m seeing an interesting phenomenon – the snow falling right outside the window is slanting to the left at about a 30 degree angle, while the snow out in my backyard is falling at about a 45 degree angle to the right.
Probably not significant of anything other than the aerodynamics of my house, but still interesting.
Back to snow. Roads starting to be covered here in Blue Ridge.
Snowing keenly at Ridgewood Farm in Salem. Ground is becoming white. If there is gonna be a six or more inches of snow in the area, I’m thinking Bland County and parts of Wythe will be the winners. Sadly pouring the snow along I-77.
Captain…I am under that heavy band now in Hardy…temp has dropped a full degree in about ten minutes to 32.9…and very heavy snow covering the ground almost immediately after it started…I’d say quarter inch in fifteen minutes easily…bit of wind with it too…no thunder yet.
Thunder-Sleet/Snow in Culpeper. It’s like a summer thunderstorm. Have never witnessed anything like this.
Captain Q,
I’m working at the Henry Co. Admin. Bldg. Only light snow (not sticking yet) and unfortunately no thundersnow. I’ve only heard and saw that once driving thru Raleigh in ’83.
Take that back – coming down in the hIll city.
Hardy, Off Windy Gap in Franklin Co: the snow is starting to stick really well now.
The Milkman says the roads are starting to stay covered, and are slick.
Enjoy the snow but take care all.
This TWLS is pretty happy right now. The high school dismissed at 12:10, and I went to my son’s elementary school and checked him out early, as a treat (the kid maybe misses one day of school a year, if that!– I thought this could be a fun treat for both of us). It’s coming down in nice big clumps in the Raleigh Court/Grandin Court area. The sidewalks and some of the roads are starting to get a bit slushy, and there were a few instances of decreasing visibility when we were driving home– be careful out there, okay? (And where is Doug? Haven’t heard much from my snow-hating pal lately…)
Pooring snow in goodview road conditions bad and getting worse
Snow starting to stick here in W. Salem (Green Hill Park area)
Snowing heavily just outside of Vinton on Hardy Rd with gusty wind in the higher tree tops. No thunder. Things appear to have closed in nicely and we are set for a snowy afternoon…lets sit back and see what it can produce.
Too warm in Pulaski, temperature up to 35. It’s trying to snow, but hardly any flakes. Looks like we are a missed opportunity.
Solid 2 inches in galax,radar looking good for several more hours of snow! Maybe we get that 4 inches!
I’m in Blacksburg. It snows….then stops…snows…then stops. Kevin – will this dry slot fill in?
Snow – and all precip – has stopped in Boones Mill. Heavy snow fell about 10 minutes and now has been at a stand still about 10 minutes. I am not enjoying this rollercoaster weather ride right now. lol
Snowing extremely hard here in Garden City. 1st graders are fascinated. So is their teacher.
Weatherbug has many ‘weather cameras’ as well as traffic cams spread over the region where you can compare local weather. Their weather cameras also have a ‘replay’ where you can see the weather change in 15-minute time-lapse (except Wintergreen’s which was snowed up by daybreak!). Very light rain falling at north end of Blacksburg right now. 37 degrees
Blossom, what a great memory for your child to check him out early today! And I have had Doug on my mind too. Hope all is well……we know that Sam is busy saying Oh Man!
The snow showers have slowed some for now. But that has been the way of it today.
Back to rain/sleet/snow in downtown Roanoke. Temp at 36.4. Glaring upward and giving upper level low my “evil eye”.
The radar loop shows a dry area over Rocky Mount, but it seems to be rotating — more snow should be coming that way. Dry area may make it to Roanoke soon, if it holds form.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=FCX&product=NCR&overlay=11111111&loop=yes
It has been snowing quite hard for the last 30 minutes or so near the Town of Floyd. Accumulation now reaching one inch.
snow is rocking and rolling near William Byrd High School. The ground and road covered in less than 10 minutes.
Roanoke City Elementary Schools NO EARLY DISMISSAL……but wait they shut down the middle and high schools at 1:00. Hmmm, sounds like damage control to me……pathetic.
I don’t know why this dry slot persists over blacksburg but we BARELY have a trace on the ground. Any chance they’ll cancel the WSW?
No sooner did I post that then did the snow come almost to a stop in Garden City. Figures.
Surprisingly, my first post on the matter…snowing very heavily in Daleville/Fincastle and has been coming down since about 11:00AM. I would say we probably have almost 2″-inches!
In Blacksburg, where I’m about to declare myself an agnostic on this storm – it might exist out there for some people, but I see no proof of it and it has no effect on my life.
Sam’s evil eye worked.
It’s pouring down rain in Old Southwest Roanoke.
This is the hardest I’ve seen it snow since last early February of 2010 snow…which was our last really good one!
Captain…did you hear that a plane was struck by lightning outside Lynchburg and had to make an emergency landing because it knocked out its electrics?
Snow and ice have accumulated quite quickly here in Franklin county and on Jubal Early Hwy just over Windy Gap Mountain. The roads are slushy and slick! I looked out my window one minute and was disappointed that we hadn’t had more snow… 15 minutes later we had about 1/2 to 1 inch on the ground and roads! Be careful out there.
Here in the Wm. Byrd H.S. area of Eastern Roanoke County we have heavy wind blown snow, large flakes, while the temp has risen 1 deg up to 36. Ground covered but the roads are just wet.
We’ve had a steady snow here in Dublin but it’s just not really accumulating. There might be 1/2 inch on the grass and there’s some slush in the streets. It’s just too warm. Is it supposed to get colder later on so that it can actually accumulate?
Inaccueather radar/satellite composite loop:
http://www.accuweather.com/us/radar/sir/va_/radar.asp?play=true.
A few quick things to point out
BTW, Snow Lover Command Post back open for bidness!
1. Last 2 hours, event has strengthened. Inconclusive if it’s tapping into atlantic moisture but appears to be starting that. There looks like a surface low (reflection) is developing along the NC/VA line.
2. Excellent Model performance thus far. Big picture came to fruition and handled it well. For the most part DT & KM called this one right. Why the media can’t is beyond me. I over-estimated in the beginning and under-estimated in the end in some places. But the storm for the most has happened as predicted. SO TECHNICALLY NOT A BUST! Like I said, my bust limit is 4″ for Roanoke.
3. Problems with the models and event? Too warm IMHO thus less accumulation but QPF (amount of available liquid precip) is real close.
ULL low in the end may be a little stronger now as there seem to be scattered to widespread thunderstorm/thundersnow reports east and north of ROA. Somewhat rare but it was being called for by the models. I was really worried last night as there was very little snow in TN and AL and the coastal low tracked further east.
back to nowcasting…snow in Western VA will start to taper off after 6PM west to east. The Valley north of Staunton to DC/NOVA are about to get smashed! Accumulations should be 4-8″ up there if the temps can come down a little more.
Relax, everyone. Let the temps fall and there is more moisture coming. Just let it happen….
Oh…..man, Sam, no you didn’t! Why couldn’t it have cleared just in the vicinity of wherein you used your evil eye…and not all the way here out in Franklin County? Kind of a reverse PigPen ie no black cloud over your head, just blue skies and rainbows while it poured snow for me?!
The sky still “says” snow to me. So snow eye back at you!
I’m not sure if I’m blighted or blessed, our little corner of Glenvar is quiet and uneventful. Aside from some minor morning sleet and a handfull of snow squalls (and thats being generous)this has been a mostly rain event for us.
Oh, Old Man Winter, why do you tease us Roanokers so? You keep sending us busts this winter. Did we do something wrong? Or did we get 10 years worth of snow last winter? Please answer.
Just saw on the web that lightning struck an airliner near Lynchburg and had to make an emergency landing there. This is definitely a very dynamic weather event, but looking at the radar now, I’ll be surprised to see 2″ here on Little Brushy Mtn. by the time the storm moves out. There just doesn’t appear to be enough sustained moisture for any real accumulation. Too many dry slots.
still holding at 35F in my neighborhood around Hollins…. how much snow that is coming will not matter if it doesn’t drop a couple degrees – slight dusting on ground but melts quickly after the snow relents
5.25 to 5.5 inches in the front yard in Rural Retreat at 2 PM. The wet snow is compressing on the deck table. Although I once enjoyed snow, last winter did me in and this winter seems very similar to last, so I’d gladly send this snow elsewhere to snow lovers if I could.
This is just a messy slop storm here in Old Southwest.
Gold star goes to Robin Reed.
Who wants to head over to WDBJ and give it to him?
skibum, temps seem to be rising slightly not falling.
It is snowing pretty good in Cloverdale. My subdivision which is a little higher elevation is snow covered.
Interesting how the NWS upped snow totals to 5-9″ for Lynchburg in their latest Storm Warning.
Well Mark…if we got 10 years worth of snow last winter that would have been about 230″…lol..I wish! Last winter yielded 43″ which put us among the top-10 I think! Roanoke averages roughly 23″ of snow per year…which compared to last year seems paltry, BUT compared to the previous 4 or 5 years was a rare treat! I don’t think this storm is done by a long shot and Ski Bum is correct…quit overanalyzing the snow and models and he said and she said and just enjoy what we are FINALLY getting after the most confusing winter storm I have ever lived through! I hope all the snow lovers get their desired amounts and everyone enjoy!
#124 Roanoke City school can’t take ALL students home at the same time. They don;t have enough buses and drivers. What damage control?
Here’s the Story from Lynchburg News and Advance:
Aircraft was USAirways Express flight from Charlotte. All are OK, been there done that. I would say that some peeps on that flight will be changing their pants…lol! Bet it was a fun ride.
http://www2.newsadvance.com/news/2011/jan/26/plane-makes-safe-emergency-landing-lynchburg-ar-800334/
Here’s it’s flighpath from Charlotte to LYH courtesy of flightaware.com Looks like they went right thru some thundersnow line south of LYH.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/PDT4376
as far as Roanoke city was concerned, high school was dismissing at 1pm anyway this week b/c of exams. Then they decided to let middle out at 1pm and take elementary home last. No after school activities. Bad move I thought, not letting elementary out earlier, but not my call.
Still a VERY wet snow here in SW county. On my way home I was noticing slushy build up on almost all of the roads except 419.
temp back up to 34 and rain Dixie Caverns/Glenvar. everything has melted.
gdad, RCPS should have made the call earlier (like every other system in the valley) and got everyone home before the roads got slick. Winter Storm WARNING = liability.
Come on now cap’n you’re starting to flip flop like all these politicians we got…slow down you making me dizzy (Just pickin), but seriously if its going to snow more that 4″ around the Roanoke area and be over by 6 pm it better get busy. It’s not snowing at all in Vinton and the ground is barely white. What gives?
Rain here in Roanoke, this is a bust
Wintry mix (mostly rain) in Ironto. But I see snow every now & then when I look outside, & it was sleeting again last time I went for firewood, so I remain hopeful.
Temp here at 2800 feet has been holding at 36-37 degrees all day, odd since I was counting on temps going down once precipitation started. Yet at similar elevations elsewhere in Floyd County folks have been getting colder temps. Been snowing steady for a while now but too warm to build up much accumulation beyond a slushy 1/2 inch. If it were colder, would guestimate about 3-4 inches accumulation from all the hail-sleet/snowfall here today. Very weird storm!
I just cleaned my driveway with my snowblower. There was 3-4″ of very heavy snow that would make very good snowballs. A foot of this stuff would collapse roofs. Still snowing hard here.
I am on the western side of Bent Mt. and I have snow coming from NW on the western side of my property and from the SE on the eastern side.I am in a bit of a hollow. Life inside the snow globe!
Windy Gap Mountain, Franklin County side is starting to get more snow now. Stopped snowing for about an hour 2-3 pm and now it’s looking rather blizzard like
Yay!
Weird storm for sure. Looking at pics of I-81 mess in Wythe Co. and then looking out my window at rain in Blacksburg. Very strange to be on the warm side of things in B-Burg. Temp still well above 35.
Nice soaker rain. Needed it!
We have snow again in Roanoke (Grandin/Raleigh Court areas– somebody help me with this, please: where exactly is Raleigh Court, and what exactly is Grandin Court? I live near the intersection of Brandon and Grandin.)
I hear about these snow totals around the area and I almost don’t believe them at all. It’s 3:00 and we’ve seen barely anything. In fact, it is currently raining. BUST. There’s no way this can be 3-6 inches while currently raining and supposedly out the door in a few hours…
BAH! Bring on summer and the eleventy billion degree temps again if this is all this winter can provide. Much like the city of Roanoke itself, all promise..no delivery.
Check out I-81 about mile marker 180 near Buena Vista and North. Really rough out there. Then back south around Wytheville on I-77. Everywhere in-between seems to be OK.
http://www.511va.org/Cameras.aspx?r=1
Doug: I’m touching on it in my new post, but I at least partially disagree. There was nothing wrong with the dynamic cooling with the upper low … it had everything changing over by mid-morning. The problem was with banded precipitation and dry slots allowing zones of milder air within the larger shield.