Winter storm watch issued for heavy snow Wednesday
The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has placed a winter storm watch this morning for much of Southwest Virginia along and west of the Blue Ridge and along and north of the U.S. 460 corridor for the threat of 4-8 inches of snow Wednesday and Wednesday night. The weather service has mentioned the possibility of adding more counties later as the situation develops — Franklin County and Lynchburg city would seem to be the two spots most likely for that. Weather doesn’t precisely follow political boundaries, of course, and so it’s not going to jump from Floyd County over northern Franklin County to southern Bedford County — don’t think there’s no chance of snow, possibly several inches of it, just because you’re a litle outside the current boundary.
Forecast guidance is in large agreement now that a surface low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will track northeastward through the Southeast and then up the East Coast, while a strong upper-level low feeds into the system from the west and southwest on Wednesday. As the surface low throws back moisture and the upper low both brings cold air throughout much of the atmosphere and strong lift to squeeze out precipitation, morning mixed precipitation will change to all snow in most areas around the middle of the day, and could be heavy at times into the evening. Snow will start to fall and accumulate at higher elevations first but should make it to all elevations fairly quickly once it starts in earnest. as the pull of cold air from aloft both from the storm dynamics and falling precipitation will be strong.
The weather service is going with 4-8 inches for most locations west of Roanoke (and southwest through Floyd County) and 4-6 inches for the Roanoke Valley, Bedford county and northward, east of I-81. These amounts are pretty close to my initial guesstimate yesterday of 5-9 inches west of I-81 and above 2,000 feet east of I-81, and 3-7 inches east of I-81 to a line from Stuart to Lynchburg. Be aware that there is some forecast model support for larger amounts. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has most of the region in a moderate risk of 4-plus inches and a slight to moderate risk of 8-plus inches. I’m not quite ready to go larger yet with the amounts but fully expect that at least some locations somewhere in our region will get double-digit snowfall amounts. Whether that’s isolated areas or a more widespread swath remains to be seen. I will be mointoring the forecast trends.
January 25, 2011 - 7:17 AM
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Oh, you say the sweetest things, Kevin!!
If it’s got to be snow I wish it was the light and easy to shovel fluffy stuff. Any chance the cold air is going to hang on until the Wed. front comes in? Normally I’d be tickled with a daytime high in the 40′s.
OK, we’re in storm mode with the blog.
I try to answer as many questions as I can, but will inevitably fall behind and miss some — probably several — with the volume of comments that typically pour in near a storm.
Remember our politeness rule — no personal attacks on ANYONE, no foul language, no “flaming” other commenters. Those comments get deleted — they have always been very few.
Try to keep your comments short. I appreciate anyone’s analysis of the storm but keep it to a short paragraph or two please with a link or two.
If you post anything about what’s happening where you are, please remember to put your location. Saying “It’s snowing here” doesn’t mean anything if we don’t know where you are!
Also, stay on topic. I allow more drifting off topic in slower weather times, but with the volume of comments that usually come near winter storms, let’s keep things on the weather.
I thank every single person who clicks on the Weather Journal blog!
Kevin… we THANK YOU for you hard work and dedication to the weather and this blog!!! You are amazing and I’m still not quite sure how you find the time. Thank your wife as well
If the next few runs of models come in big, do you think there is room to increase your amounts?
Alright,looks like us snow lovers are gonna win this one bring it on. time to break out the boots and shovels
OK weather it’s up to you I want to win my free lunch. Kevin thanks for eveything; also Brandon, Glen, and other weather nuts for taking the time to discuss all of this with us. Sam and Doug I know you two are looking for yet another 11th hour , but can we please have this one?
I just noticed I comment from home as Keith, and from work as Keith Foster (humm maybe I should have been better about that).
Definitely, Brandon. I expect someone somewhere in SW Virginia will get 10-12 inches but I’m not sure yet if that’s a few isolated locations that get under heavier snow for a short time or something more widespread. For our region, I don’t expect this will get to the level of Dec. 18-19, 2009, with widespread 12-plus, but widespread 6-plus with small areas of 12-plus is not out of the realm of possibility. And I still think there’s a slight chance we go a bit under the posted amounts, too, though I’m pretty comfortable now with the 5-9 west of I-81/3-7 east of I-81 as a good base to start at that could grow in some places.
Kevin – thank you for all you do to keep us informed!
This has all the makings of a “work at home day” storm. Snow on top of ice makes for great sledding but horrible driving. I just hope by 8AM tomorrow, we have a definitive answer on whether to leave the house.
I live at the foot of a mountain and we have too many people in the neighborhood who mistake their Jetta for a Jeep.
When should we expect the NWS to issue Winter Storm Warnings? Later today?
How does this compare with last winter’s February snows which tied up Floyd, Patrick, Montgomery, Craig Counties for up to two weeks? Would the wet nature of the snow make it last longer, or less long, in cleanup situations?
So where are we on the timing of this now?
Kevin, what are the forecast highs and lows for the period of the storm in Roanoke?
Roanoke/Salem, Is that East or West of I-81 Just wondering on the 5-9 inch or the 3-7 inch for the Roanoke/.Salem area
For those interested – check out my write up and maps on the storm – comments appreciated.
206flames.blogspot.com
Quick question.
What’s the fair use policy for this blog? I’ve shared some tidbits from the blog on various internet sites but it’s usually no more than a paragraph and I always give a link.
I can’t imagine The Roanoke Times having a problem with sending more traffic this way.
Timing will be some light mixed precipitation overnight into Wednesday morning, with snow developing around midday, becoming heavy at times in the afternoon and early evening, and dwindling by midnight.
Ken, this could end up being somewhat similar to the last of the 3 bigger snows last winter, the Feb. 5-6 snow, which was 6-12 across the region and a wet snow mixed with sleet. Unlike that one, though, we’ll probably start as mixed precipitation, change to wet snow and then end as a little bit fluffier snow — the reverse of how that one occurred. Wet snow is harder to move — beware if you’re shoveling.
Has anyone noticed the 6Z GFS at 30 hours has a perfect hole of NO PRECIP right over top of RNK/NRV? Also, seems we are counting on a lot of snow in a short time from the ULL. It’s a shame the actual storm system will be wasted on us. Seems we are banking alot on the ULL, which is always a crap shoot? Kevin – are you seeing these as legit threats to our snow?
Kevin, do you think there’s any chance we’ll see another 12+ inch snow this winter? Or do you think this may be our last big snowfall amount?
If this is beginning at noon, I can get home from class just as it is starting up here in Lexington. Wednesday afternoons are writing periods for me anyway. Unfortunately, since colleges are loathe to cancel classes, I hope the roads are cleared so I can get back up to teach here on Thursday. Why can’t these things hit on Saturdays!?
Mike, the 30-hour map on the 6Z GFS is 7 am Wednesday — I don’t really expect much precipitation to be occurring then, just light stuff. I would not really say we’re “wasting” the storm system, and in some ways I may have misled by making it sound like 2. The two features work in unison as one storm.
The main things I see that could go wrong on the low-snow end are temperatures and a northerly shift in the upper low track. It has room to shift south — could even boost snow totals if it did. On the high snow end, more precipitation and colder early in the day or just more intense with the late day precip.
Jay; I don’t think this is the last snow threat this winter. May have another as early as next week. Can’t say whether this will be the biggest or if there will be a bigger one later.
For the past two winters this blog has been my go-to place for any and all weather related issues. Thanks so much Kevin for ALWAYS keeping us up to date. As a huge snow lover I do have to vent over this approaching storm.. I live in the Boones Mill area of Franklin County and am starting to become convinced there is a line at the Franklin Co border that won’t allow snow to enter! UGH! As I read and watch the warnings and radar, the snow seems to be surrounding us here but not making it’s way in. I don’t mean to be selfish, but I will be so bummed if the snow starts piling up in Roanoke and surrounding areas and all we get is yucky cold winter rain. I am trying to stay optomistic and hope the air will get cold enough here, but forecasts are making me lose hope. Guess we bought a house in the wrong county! lol
I as many others enjoy the information Kevin and your supporters supply during the anticipation of a big snow storm and thank you for hard work.Kevin whats the chance of a icing or do you think it will quickly switch to a wet snow. A little curious with wind coming in as well.
Thanks Fireman Ed
Morning all you snow lovers(And Haters). Just in from my morning observations,the sunrise was beautiful and very colorful(red and pink). That in and of itself is a sign of a storm to come(red sky in the morn,sailors forewarned).It was much colder here than forecast(21)which gives me more confidence that the cold will hold and-fingers crossed-my prediction is right on the money.
Thank you to Doppler Carol for the Snow Songs I think they will be fun to sing with the grandchildren too! And Blossom for such ideas as Schools Out For Blizzard. Sweet!
Not so much to Sam Oakey and his suggestion of Can’t Always Get What You Want! Albeit funny!
Kevin, thank you for the leeway on entries, I am rather like Samantha Stevens Aunt Clara. So though I basically understand as I read the indepth information, to use it in my comments is beyond my scope!
I feel like I am in the “know” because of this blog, so thank you.
….and when the snow starts here in the Windy Gap area of Franklin Co I will let your groupies know!
sorry snow lovers(and i am one)….i have lived in this area my entire life and this one will be a bust…we will get a rain/sleet/snow mix that amounts to nothing pretty much.
My dad taught us lots of folk lore growing up. I know this sounds starnge, but one of the indicators for snow is squirrel activity at the bird feeder. In the last 24 hours the squirrels have cleaned out all the peanuts/sunflower seeds I put out. Thought I’d toss that out for the snow lovers!
I live in Henry County on the Patrick Co. border. Everything forecast I see has us getting more ice than snow. What are your thoughts on accumulations for my area? Thanks!
Is Staunton going to see any of this snow, or is it going to be rain rain rain for us?
Its interesting that the HPC maps you referenced have us in a strong risk of heavier snow yet, the forecasters are stating it will be a rain/snow mix with little accumulation (<1 inch). Therefore no WSWs, etc.
I find it interesting that http://www.weather.com is still saying we are going to get mostly rain. What map are THEY looking at?
The forecast in Smyth County ranges from 2-4″ to 6-10″, depending on who you check with. That is a change from last night’s “possibility of a lighty accumulation”. Accuweather has the highest forecast and NWS has the smallest. Here in the mountains, the accumulation can vary 3 or 4 inches in 3 or 4 miles. The forecasts are coming around to what Kevin predicted early on.
The snowblower is gassed up, pointed at my 300′ driveway and ready to go. I bought it last winter and have used it more since then than I would have used it in the ten years before I bought it.
Morning all!
Snow Lover Command Post Back on line.
Not much change overnight. Glad to sse NWS Blacksburg finally joined the party.
Out with final call shortly.
gotta say at least 6 for north roanoke.
12z NAM having issues with QPF. Has the track and idea right but has 2″ QPF 100 or so miles to our east while putting us with around a half inch.
For comparison, 0z Euro had about an inch. HPC still going with just over an inch.
Hey Kevin,
Love the blog and have followed it for years. I’m wondering if Augusta County is in line with Roanoke re: snow amounts. It seems like we’re predicted to get less. Any reason for that?
Thanks as always.
I’m in SW County, bottom of the mtn and I am still hoping to get 6+ inches. My 7yr old was wanting to do a snow dance this morning. I want to thank you Kevin for keeping us so well informed as to what to expect with this storm.
12Z NAM just out…700 mb Omega @ hour 30…the very heavy snow band shifts east by about 30-40 NM putting a bullseye from east of the Blue Ridge to just west of I-95 with 29 corridor being the epicenter.
LYH, CHO, Greene Co, Louisa to near RIC to DC will see some of the heavy stuff per this. Snow totals may be reduced a little for ROA, NRV and Shenandoah Valley now if read it right.
Temps will still be on the warm side east of the Blue Ridge for hours 18-30. Snow accumulations not as much as Shenandoah Valley but central VA will have heavy snow later on and a little further east and north. Problem with Central VA is ground is too warm for full effect of accumulation like what will happen in SHD. Temps still look good for west of BR for heavier accumulations.
captian, what are u gonnah say for northern roanoke?
QPF field on NAM still a little whack.. don’t buy it.
Heaviest snows now do look from 81 – 29..
Notice the big gap over SWVA. Heavy precip to our west, and East.. don’t buy it.. it will fill in.
Hey Glen,
The Eastern Greene County Snow Desk appreciates the update. Someone needs to notify our forecasters.
They are still calling for more of a rain/slush event. No advisories, no special weather statements, no nothing at this point. That is actually probably a good sign because we typically get more snow when they are not forecasting it.
Its starting to get cloudy outside so that may hold down our temps I hope. Airport is reporting a 10:00 AM reading of 38 but they are forecasting a high of nearly 50 today. It’s been so cold around here and the ground is frozen solid so I’d be amazed if it gets that warm.
Quagmire: Low was west of previous track on NAM. No reason to believe the heaviest band shifts east. Still think it’s having some issues. Gonna wait until after the GFS runs before jumping to conclusions.
My husband filled the bird feeders on Sunday and then again on Monday…so Jay I will be looking to see if the squirrels are a little more involved in the eating! I had noticed before that sometimes I see squirrels out more, but hadn’t given much thought to why.
its not gonna just jump over our area like that.. it might be becoming more ene oriented..but even if thats the case..puts us more in the bullseye, kinda shifts it out of east wv and the shenandoah.
The NAM has been disjointed on this storm quite a bit, doesn’t seem to fit the pieces together well. While it can’t be ruled out that the heavier snow will shift east of us, it will take more than 1 run of the NAM to convince me of that. Literally, would be a 2ish-4ish snow for much of the area on the newest NAM.
Very complex storm, models appear to have the overall pattern in agreement but will be feeling their way arond for details today. Do not be surprised if there are some jumps on the models between lighter and heavier amounts.
Brandon, I forgot rule #4…those who live by the NAM. die by the NAM…
Another Cup o Joe Please…
still think 29 corridor north of LYH will see more snow.
I am here in Floyd in a holler near the Doppler and my elevation is 2500 feet. The military always seem to do their fly overs on Tuesdays and Thursdays but they had 2 jets go over on Sunday night and then last night we had 6 jets. I hope they are trying to get some flying time in before the storm and not for some other reason. Granddaughter is coming over today so we will be singing and dancing the Snowey Pokey.
BRIGHT sunshine out there and I would not be surprised if Roanoke hits 50. Then the clouds roll in and act like a blanket to keep temps warm overnight. I’m not making any guesses, but feel snow haters still have reason to be hopeful. But I did just see a squirrel run across the intersection of Elm and Jefferson downtown, not normally a wildlife haven!
- to Howard. I pastor a church and we’ve had our fair share of Saturday snows, thank you very much!
I’m snow lover but this time I prefer a miss. Have Roanoke funeral for Thurs with Wed night visits.
Well, it looks like I’ll be staying in Snowshoe until Thursday. 70% risk of >8 inches, hopefully it will be dry powder!
Temps here in Blacksburg are still lower than forecast. According to Weatherbug, today’s low should be 32F and it’s still only 26F. I have doubts that we’ll hit the forecast high of 43F today.
Looks like the DC forecasters extended the WSWs up the I-81 corridor to Southern PA border. Nothing posted as of yet to the east of the Skyline Drive. (Greene, Albemarle, Nelson County)
Radford & Roanoke are up to 39 degrees currently, and NWS says that Blacksburg & Christiansburg are at 3, with bright sun here in Radford.
CB, I can’t think of a better place to be snowbound around here. Enjoy it and make some tracks for us skibums stuck at work this week.
make that 36, not 3.
I can dream, right!
Any ideas as to timing for the precip (in whatever form and quantity) for Southern Botetourt County?
Today’s temperatures are most important for the early precip late tonight and early Wednesday. If it were to stay cooler today and tonight there would be a better chance of snow/sleet early on as opposed to rain. The temperature for the later stuff in the afternoon/evening Wednesday will entirely be determined by the storm dynamics. Accumulation on some surfaces will be slowed a bit by daytime arrival — solar radiation still collects in the ground and pavement even on a cloudy day. But that sometimes means you just get a slush layer underneath if it starts snowing harder than can turn to ice.
I stand corrected – Weatherbug’s latest update just jumped to 38F! We may hit 43F yet. I was hoping it would stay colder to help boost the snow totals, darn it!
GFS still has good precip shield over area.
Precip timing should be light rain/sleet/snow late tonight/early Wednesday, with snow developing around noon and become heavy at times in afternoon and early evening.
If your temperature was 3, RP, we’d probably have a big dry Arctic high over us pushing this whole thing way south. And we wouldn’t have 60-plus comments by mid morning.
New GFS is pretty juicy over the area — .5-.75 liquid mostly — most of which is snow Roanoke and west. Subtracting a little out for early rain/mix and early melting of snow, probably a solid 3-6 inches, taken literally.
One thing I’m watching for today is whether the models really start juicing the whole storm up.
Anybody wanting to place a new thought about what it might do here in Roanoke tomarrow with all the new maps and thoughts that have been made the last couple hours? I am a snow lover and I am slowly feeling that our chances of a decent snowfall is slowly disappearing and melting away before it even gets here. What a heart break this is going to be if it happens.
Can someone post the newest maps when they are avalable
. I do worry about this warm air we all remeber the great bust of 2011 (You know just about 2 weeks ago)
Don, ha! point taken, let’s just hope the latest push east is right and we end up with little snow, if any..
It was a bust 2 weeks ago — not sure I would call it a “great bust” with 2-4 inches become less than an inch. Now if this does the same — it would be a “great bust.”
48 hour GFS precip through Thurs AM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p48_048l.gif
Early Wed PM 6-hour precip/850 mb temp (1-mile up, note blue freezing line, west of that likely snow)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_030l.gif
Same for early Wed evening
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_036l.gif
Kevin, do you have access to Euro QPF when it runs? I’m real curious to see if it continues the NAM/GFS trend of less moisture in our area.
If not I will try and track it down somewhere.
Still like 8 to 12″ as of right now. Think the models are underestimating precipitation.
I see something like this (NAM 36 hour 700 mb RH) and I have a hard time believing in the less QPF solution.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_700_036l.gif
Kevin, Thank you for the blog. I really enjoy reading all the comments. What do you think the Botetourt area, especially the Buchanan area, will receive? The Almanac is calling for a good one.
Hard to ignore that “dry slot” of “only” up to .5 liquid right over top of RNK/NRV on that 48 hour GFS. Do you buy this Kevin? If it verifies RNK/NRV is looking like only 2″-4″.
Hickok: I’ve got Botetourt split between 3-7 east and 5-9 west.
Brandon: Don’t have Euro QPF (predicted precipitation) but was told it was around an inch, half or a bit less as snow. I’m not seeing a drying trend at all on the GFS, and the NAM isn’t so much a trend as an intermittent pattern. Precipitation with a strong upper level low is often a bit underforecast, so you could be right.
You poor thing… I know you will be glad when all is said and done. You must really love what you do…
Based on your past experience, as well as your current expertise, and your gut feeling…. what is your feeling on the total accumaltions we will see in Roanoke and surrounding areas…
I think your blog is just great- and so informative… and an overall learning experience. Thank you for doing it…
Oh- by the way… I am one on the snow lover side
HPC still likes good QPF in this area.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
I usually defer to them on these matters anyway. It’s going to be a fun nowcasting situation.
Clouds are rolling in. Maybe that will help keep the temps down.
Mike: Looks more like I-77 corridor to me on that “dry slot”. Doesn’t quite make it to Roanoke, maybe to Blacksburg. But be that as it may, I don’t get too wrapped up in the exact details of these precipitation maps, but the overall concepts. They’re not capable of pinpointing a drier spot that small, don’t have the resolution.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p48_048l.gif
If a 100-mile wide .25- or less zone opened up amid heavier precipitation I would consider that more substantial. These models aren’t going to be so accurate as to pick up a 50-mile region of .25 inch less in a sea of heavier precip.
Kevin: with the storm being 24 hours or less away, can you give us an updated probability on a per scenario basis as you did yesterday?
CHO reporting 42 at 11:00 AM but the clouds are definitely on the increase. The OAT jumped 5 degrees from 9 – 10 AM and 4 degrees from 10 – 11 AM. Hopefully the increasing clouds will keep lowering the upward trend.
A couple things have me worried with respect to our temps. It only got down to 28 degrees last night and the thickening clounds will help hold that heat in when the sun does start to go down. Also the dewpoint is also relatively high as well (20 deg) so when the moisture does start moving in, evaporational cooling won’t be very effective.
Even if it doesn’t snow, at least we have some precip headed in this direction. The reservoirs and water tables could definitely use some help.
Brian: It’s pretty much 100 percent for a slightly inland or near-coastal track now. It’s all the other details that are in some flux!
I’m going to be off the blog a while, got to take care of some family stuff. No major changes in my thinking on this right now. I’ll be back on later. If you comment while I’m out, I’ll get it approved when I get back.
DT just said the RGEM hammers us. You have a link to that model Kevin?
Okay, everyone post their final calls for this storm given your location. Like many of you, I’m in ‘Noke, and my final call (as reported at ROA I believe) is 6.5 inches. I think we get more moisture out of this thing than what the models are showing, however I think the initial rain setup eats away at the totals a bit. In fact, I think we’ll be on edge tonight/tomorrow wondering when its finally going to turnover from rain to snow. In the end, however, Roanoke will indeed become snowanoke.
KM: Can you help us eke out 3″ here in DC proper? Nothing worse than having it snow a foot 20 miles to the west at Dulles while it rains here!!
What Dry Slot?
12Z RGEM looks real sweet for Western 1/2 of VA! Those Canucks must know something we don’t. 25mm of liquid is about 0.90 – 1.00″ liquid US.
Aye Good Day!
KEVIN! You are more popular than a paycheck with the teachers I work with!! Thank you for all your hard work!
New River Valley Airport in Dublin is reporting 48 degrees at noon. I bet we will make at least 50 today. At least it’s a nice day to get everything outside cleaned up and ready for the storm.
Dang it, up to 50 in Roanoke at 12:30.
Holy cow, its up to 51 degrees now. It will be a real stretch for the temps to cool enough for this to be a snow event for us tonight/tomorrow. Maybe the forecasters are right about this one.
Warmer then I would like leading up a major winter storm, so I’m getting a bit nervous now. Maybe the locals are on to something with this warm air, but only time will tell.
I’ve been looking at the radar maps and it looks like the moisture is reaching us quicker than expected. How will this affect the snow totals? Especially being as “warm” as it is right now.
YAHOOO! Kevin: You are truly the MAN!! I ask for a paltry 3″ and you more than deliver. WSW up for the District 5″+ of heavy wet snow. I don’t know how you do it but you are magical. Can I have the Power Ball Lottery numbers please?!?!
TWC is still calling for mostly rain, less than an inch for Roanoke if I’m reading that correctly. How can they be so far off the mark with less than 24 hrs to go? Even WDBJ is saying 2-5 inches now.
It got warmer than expected in Blacksburg. Near 50 but temps are starting to drop and the leading edge of the precipitation is crossing I-77.
Driving back from lunch (1:45 in Roanoke) the radio weather guy said 2-4″ of wet snow for Roanoke with tomorrow’s highs in the mid to upper 30′s. Is that off base/outdated?
50 degrees in Roanoke@ 2:00! yikes!!
How much will this affect the 1st phase Wed. AM? More rain and less mix?
TWLS need to know! Thursday looks like a done deal with the storm’s back side wallop:)
Wow, 2.00in QPF bullseye over Roanoke. Too bad this probably won’t come true.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_p36_042m.gif
I have family in Roanoke……….I don’t see why you guys think you’re going to get much snow. If everything hits right, then you may get 4-6 inches of wet snow, but not a major winter storm by any means.
REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
WASH NATIONAL CLOUDY 43 23 45 CALM 30.11F
DULLES CLOUDY 43 21 41 CALM 30.09F
WARRENTON CLOUDY 52 21 30 S5 30.07F
CULPEPER* PTSUNNY 54 27 35 CALM 30.07F
RICHMOND CLOUDY 52 25 35 S5 30.10F
CHARLOTTSVILLE PTSUNNY 54 23 30 S10 30.06F
ORANGE* PTSUNNY 51 27 39 S3 30.08F
LOUISA* PTSUNNY 52 25 35 CALM N/A
FARMVILLE* PTSUNNY 57 30 35 S6 30.05F
STAUNTON* PTSUNNY 54 27 35 W6 30.05F
ROANOKE CLOUDY 51 24 34 NE5 30.07F
BLACKSBURG PTSUNNY 46 30 53 CALM 30.06F
DUBLIN* PTSUNNY 52 25 35 W6 30.05F
Temps low-mid 50′s in some places including ROA.
After “digging” around for some info, it has become apparent that the consensus developing this afternoon is for areas experiencing rain tomorrow, a changeover with accumulating snow is likely. As was stated by someone else, east of the Blue Ridge, especially north, could get a heavy burst for several hours. Good news for us snow lovers near Charlottesville. Watch now up for the northern 29 corridor.
Our area has joined the WSW bandwagon, but its 54 degrees at the airport now. Clouds are pretty thick and the sky definitely has that classic snowstorm grey look to it but with the heavy cloudcover in place, its going to be hard to lose that heat this evening.
Snow lovers rejoice!
DT at wxrisk is on board for our area (SWVA). If I am reading the map correctly, it looks like SML and west are in the 6-12″ zone.
Sorry, forgot to attached the link to the WXRISK map.
http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/midLc1.jpg
Let’s go back to Kevin’s other weather interest…those are some pretty hefty thunderstorms in Florida…with a tornado watch up. What do you think of the chances of thunder here (with or without snow)?
I love the snow..but I’m a little leery of getting heavy,wet snow. It can knock down power lines and leave the elderly,very young or sick in danger. I just hope it’ll get nice and cold and give us a lighter,fluffier type snow.
Snowjunkie,
4-6″ sounds like a pretty good winter storm to me. It’s not epic, but this is a decent storm.
I was out in short sleeves a bit ago. But the clouds have arrived and radar even shows some light echoes, though a lot of it won’t be hitting the ground. As those early flakes/drops fall some atmospheric cooling will begin.
I really don’t think these 50s are going to matter much as to how much oir how little snow we get, except for (1) maybe a little less in low elevation areas with the early stuff tonight and early Wednesday and (2) ground a tad warmer so a little more melting before it starts sticking. The cooling from the upper low — and that cold air pulled down by falling precipitation and the strengthening surface low — is the whole ball game with Wednesday’s snow, not the state of temperatures now. The warmer air is confined to a relatively narrow zone near the surface, so that is all that has to cool to get snow to the ground.
A similar situation to this was Feb. 11, 2006. Roanoke had a high of 50 the day before and was 41 in the wee hours of Feb. 13. That too was an upper low feeding into a developing surface low coming from the Gulf. Roanoke got 5 inches of snow and Blacksburg got 8. That storm turned into 28 inches for New York City.
Kevin Why has NWS changed C’burg & B’burg to 1-3 inches tomorrow and every where else is 3-7 inches.I just saw WXRIS map that has us in the 6-12 inch range.
WFO Blacksburg significant event page…
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/emer/emer.php
It looks to me like the whole storm is breaking up quite a bit
Kevin, Curious where the NWS and WDBJ7 have temps tomorrow: NWS is 35hi/29low (OK, I guess), but channel 7 has us at 37hi/36low on Wed?? What gives?
Should be an interesting call for the schools in the area tomorrow. Call it tonight and hope they can get through the day or have early dismissal. I would suspect they will wait it out to see if they can get the school day. Thoughts?
Regina: I would say the whole storm isn’t breaking up — but rather it hasn’t come together yet. It’s very true to computer modeling at this point so appears to be on track.
Bryhyf1: Temperatures in this case are going to be so dynamic/precipitation driven that I think most forecast guidance on temperatures is not going to be accurate. If it snows hard enough, it will be 30-33 pretty quickly. It might hover in the mid 30s for a while in the Roanoke Valley and other lower elevations with light snow, rain or mix. The key is getting the layers of air above to chill, and then that air draining to the surface, pulled down by falling precipitation and/or the pull of the developing surface low on the coast.
Winter Storm Warning for Roanoke Area just issued! 4-6 inches
Yipee! Just got Winter Storm Warning text here in Galax! 2-5 inches. We didn’t even get WSW last storm when we GOT 5 inches!
Maps on NWS aren’t showing, but It appears the watch is now a warning
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ022&warncounty=VAC770&firewxzone=VAZ022&local_place1=Roanoke+VA&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch
NWS has just upgraded Montgomery County to a Winter Storm Warning as of 1531 hrs EST, and is calling for a “prolonged heavy, wet snow” with 4-8 inches accumulation.
I need to remember to re-prop the broken roof beam in my shed when I get home.
TWC just upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning from 4am wed to midnight in the NRV
Are your estimates from earlier today still the same?
Just put a brand new post touching on the winter storm warning and explaining the process behind getting from a high in the 50s to low 30s and snow (somewhat expanded version of my comment at 3:17 p.m.)
Winter Storm Warnings for Roanoke now! I was a wee bit nervous about our high in the lower 50′s today too, but I think of several other large storms, March of 1993 blizzard in general, that the storm is so large, it pulls down it’s own cool air very quickly. I remember when it started snowing on that March day in 1993, it was 46-degrees…I have borderline photographic memory so trust me, and the temp. dropped to the lower 30′s within 2 hours. That storm has similar dynamics to this one…do I think we’re going to get 16+-inches…Hades NO, but a dump of heavy wet snow of at least 6-inches seems to be the flavor of the hour. Kind of like the special of the hour or snow du jour…lol…because this will continue to change over and over! I remember other large snow events when it was in the 50s and lower 60′s the day before, so those worried about todays balmy temp…including myself…don’t be. The temp. had dropped on my atomic clock as I type from 46.2 to 43.2. Let the temps plummet and the snow start. I’m ready!!!!!