Calmer weekend precedes new storm system late Sunday and Monday
Today’s post-frontal winds have knocked down trees and power lines across the region, but will be settling down in the next few hours. Temperatures have been falling rapidly from midday highs in the 60s to late-afternoon readings in the 30s and 40s as the colder air behind the front takes hold. The front will return us to near normal readings with lows in the upper 20s and low 30s and highs in the 50s Saturday, rising back into the 60s on Sunday.
Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 2 inches were common across Southwest Virginia on Thursday and early Friday, with a few amounts just below or above those figures. Roanoke received a total of 1.01 inch, officially, which raises the seasonal total (since Dec. 1) to 4.21 inches; Blacksburg got 1.24 inch, raising the winter total to 5.22 inches. In each case, that makes the winter the third driest on record, with additional rainfall expected late Sunday and Monday having the potential to pass other years on the list. For instance, if Roanoke or Blacksburg were to get .75 with the next storm system, the winter would fall all the way to eighth driest on their respective historical lists, Roanoke’s dating to 1912 and Blacksburg’s to 1952.
At this point it appears the next low will be of similar strength and take a similar path, though more to the northwest than the system that just passed. That farther distance will probably mean less total rainfall late Sunday into Monday than just occurred, but additional warmth moving northward east of the low will increase the chance of thunderstorms in our region. Another potent severe weather outbreak is likely in central U.S., with heavy snow in parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A springlike pattern is very much in place.
February 25, 2011 - 6:05 PM
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Looks like we’ve got a real “rinse and repeat” pattern under way. A low-pressure system every 3-5 days or so moving SW to NE through the Ohio Valley, dragging a cold front through here with varying amounts of showers and possibly thunderstorms. Quick shot of cold, then warming up before the next front. This could go on for weeks.
We got up to 1.20″ total for the storm, only a scant 0.02″ fell after I made the observation this morning. The winds have been nasty though, blew my truck around a lot. Saw several limbs down off trees, some gutter sections off houses, and trash cans blown all over the place though.
“rinse and repeat” …. I love it!! Very witty, El Senor Myatt. Made me laugh out loud briefly. Now how about keeping the winds down to no more than 10 mph tomorrow ….. I just looked at the CPC 6-10 blah-blah. For the first time that I can remember in a Loooooooong time (at least on the days when I have looked at it, about twice or thrice per week), Virginia is in the white (neither warm nor cool, neither wet nor dry) for all 4 graphs. I have a feeling that for the 6-10, we might continue to be warmer than normal. Most nights recently and for the next 6, very few lows at RRA have been below normal or even close to normal.
I think the winds will probably stay below 15 tomorrow, especially in afternoon.
This is very much a zonal Pacific flow kinda pattern. It’s not unusual to see something like this more in April/May or September/October. We’re a little early, which still makes me a bit concerned the Greenland block comes back with a vengeance in April and freezes everything that greens up early, a la 2007.
Hush about a big freeze in April, KM! I would not mind a return of the GB later on, but please – no hard freeze in April. And Holy Camoli, has the temperature and especially the wind chill REALLY dropped. Just stopped by a local grocery store about 20 minutes ago, and temp was 37 and winds almost as strong as during the day. Felt like about 18. I think we ought to rename the Full Moon in February (or the one in March if it occurs early in March) the “Full Wind Moon.” Particularly if the Feb. full moon occurs after Valentine’s, as it did this year. Next year the full moon in Feb. will be on the 7th, so we should call the March Full Moon on 3-8-12 “The Full Wind Moon.” However, in 2013, the Feb full moon will be on the 25th, exactly 2 years from today. Assuming that the world does not end on Dec. 21, 2012!! :>) :>) :>)
You used “rinse and repeat.” I just thought of another phrase. “Blow dry and 2nd rinse.” Blow dry” was yesterday’s weather, of course. Looks like today will be a very seasonable day, which is fine with me.
I had a gut feeling the Greenland Block would return after ski season has wrapped up and even the most resolute ski / snow freaks are ready to move into Spring.
Remember back to the Summer/Fall of 2009 when we had a cool and comfortable summer and early fall. Was a Greenland Block in place most of that time? I’ll never forget cooking out on the porch with family and friends in late June 09 and throwing on a flannel shirt because of the relatively cold temps for that time of year. That was a definite precursor for the Winter of 2009 / 2010.
Out of curiosity what day is the last day for the snow contest and with no prospects of snow on the horizon, can you advise who is in the lead or is that info best kept under wraps until after the contest is over?
Thanks
John from Cville:
Yes the summer of 2009 did feature frequent blocking high over Greenland — it was a preview of the winter ahead. But my talk of such a block later this spring is, for now, just idle speculation.
I will be updating about the snow contest soon, probably later this week, though it runs all the way through April 15. The leader at this point has gone on to win both of the previous seasons.
I’ll be following up on this sometime this evening — our region in the center of a broad severe weather threat for Monday:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
“rinse and repeat” is much more interesting than watching the “drier” tumble around and around and around and around:) We’re approaching a seasonal transition the weather is suppose to get “interesting”.
Nice weather today while I delivered my “killer” walking route. Good thing for me that it was ….. I am exhausted. But now I get two consecutive days off, because Monday is my “not scheduled” day this week. Hey, KM, what do the models indicate about the rain for late Sunday (?, TWC showed a chance for tomorrow when I looked at it this morning) and Monday? Another 3/4 inch or more would be fabulous, ESPECIALLY because I do not work on Monday :>) :>) LET IT POUR!!
Kevin: What are the snow totals for the contest period so far?
Snow totals so far are 10.2 inches for Roanoke and 18.1 inches for Blacksburg .. so 10 and 18, rounded for contest purposes.
I will say this about the contest: One contestant has each of those totals EXACTLY right and is only a few days off on the first snow dates. I’ll reveal that in the near future in my print column (also will be linked here). Of course a late season snow could change everything. Many are in contention.
Doug: HPC rain map currently looks kinda similar to last system, except cut down a notch, with most of the rain angling just northwest with mostly .25-.50 type stuff in our region.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif
The major difference this time is almost everything we get is likely to come in shower/thunderstorm type stuff rather than any kind of general rain shield like developed Thursday. So amounts could be kinda streaky, with some locations getting an inch and others getting a tenth, rather than widespread amounts that are similar.
New NAM (0Z) just out minutes ago is much farther north and west with heaviest rain.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p60_060l.gif
Earlier GFS (12Z) is similar, but with heavier totals near us.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_060l.gif
Thanks again, amigo. From what direction will this Monday system be approaching? If it is from the west, that may spell bad news for Roanoke and my neighborhood in SW county(“bad news” being less chance of getting drenched). If it is approaching from the SW, there has been a better chance in the past that we may get hit. And of course if it were from the south, my subdivision would have a good chance of getting drenched, based on past storm tracks. I just checked NEXRAD’s radar of the entire nation, and I don’t see anything out there that gives a clue from where it will be coming. Maybe I am not looking far enough west.
This is likely to arrive from the west with some southwest to northeast storm movement along the line. That’s usually not a vector that produces a lot of heavy rain. Dew point values probably won’t be super high — in the 50s, which is pretty high for late February but not for super soaking rains — and the speed of the showers/storms/squall line will be fast.
There is nothing on the radar tonight because what’s coming our way won’t start developing until during the day Sunday.
Just put up a new post about the severe weather threat.