2011.02.10
Perhaps a 50-degree rise in temperature Friday morning to Sunday afternoon
It won’t compare to Roanoke going from 13 on March 3, 2009, to 83 three days later … or with Bartlesville, Oklahoma rising possibly 100 degrees in a week, from a state all-time record low of -28 Thursday morning to perhaps the 70s next Thursday. (UPDATE: NWS-Tulsa now reporting Newata’s -31 on the same morning as Oklahoma’s preliminary all-time state record). But one of the coldest mornings of the year Friday, with lows ranging from some single digits in rural valleys to the mid teens in more urban areas, will likely be followed by highs poking into the upper 50s to mid 60s by Sunday afternoon as our pattern flips quickly from an Arctic plunge to Pacific-influenced mild. So yes we could see a 50-degree jump in temprature over about 60 hours this weekend.
It appears now Sunday will be the warm day before a slight cooldown back to near 50 for highs Monday and Tuesday — then comes a second wave of warmth that likely carries us well into the 60s — and maybe scraping 70 — late next week.
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By the way — Roanoke officially got 0.6 inch of snow Wednesday night — significant only in that it pushes the seasonal snowfall into double digits at 10.2 inches. Blacksburg got 0.9, putting it at 17.9 inches.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 10, 2011 @ 7:42 pm
KM, what do you think of my prediction that tomorrow morning’s low at Roanoke Regional Airport (whatever it will be) will be the only sub-20 reading until autumn? Comment 16 on the previous thread. Actually I predicted no readings below 21 until autumn.
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 10, 2011 @ 8:09 pm
I am figuring that with the impending warm-up, that prediction about the 21 degrees should be safe until the last couple of days of February. And with the heat island effect of the area around the airport, I am gambling that March will get only to 21 at the worst. I looked back through the Februarys and especially the Marches of the past 4 years, and there is a ggod chance that the coldest reading in March will be 21 or higher. Even though the first 6 days of March 2010 were all below normal, the coldest reading at RRA was 28. Then somebody pushed a switch and the rest of March 2010 was way above normal. As was every month (well, at least 2.5 degrees plus) right through October.
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 10, 2011 @ 8:15 pm
This may be a dumb question… but are there any concerns involved in such a temperature swing? I remember a couple 60 degree swings in NoVA as the seasons changed… but 100? that’s amazing. Won’t the earth shatter? (I’m only half joking!)
I know when it warms up quick on mountains with snow that can unleash flooding and landslide conditions, but on the plains, are there anything these people need to worry about from such cold to such warmth?
Comment by scott — February 10, 2011 @ 8:29 pm
I just watched the last 30 minutes of that incredibly campy movie Flash Gordon, and was reminded of something. Queen did the music for that movie. And I have not invoked Freddie in a while. This one is not directed at any of the TWLS or anyone else who avoided posting comments last weekend or Monday that mentioned 4+ inches of snow for SW VA. But for others: ” ….. And another one’s gone, and another one’s gone, and another one bites the dust!!” Since those lyrics mention the word “dust,” I will not be using it any more this season, even if it does become appropriate. Dust is too closely linked with another word that starts with “D” and ends with “T”. Namely, “Drought.”
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 10, 2011 @ 9:07 pm
Out of curiosity I checked the temps today from Bartlesville, Ok. They went from that incredible low of -28 this morning to 29 this afternoon. Now that’s a 50+ degree swing in one day! Amazing!
Comment by John Baldwin — February 10, 2011 @ 10:05 pm
Doug: I’d give you about 2 out of 3 chance of being right. Roanoke doesn’t get a lot of lows that cold in March, barring extreme Arctic outbreaks or monster snowstorms. It’s pretty obvious it won’t be that cold again at least the next 10 days probably 2 weeks or more.
Scott: I think a big concern for the folks in the Southern Plains in days to come could be tornadoes. It starts getting in the 70s in February like it looks like it will next week and any kind of system that can put a little spin in the atmosphere and lift some Gulf moisture against any push of cold, dry air from the Rockies can stir that up quickly.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 10, 2011 @ 10:44 pm
@ Kevin. First, thanks for your thoughts. Now for the stuff that counts concerning my prediction …. what actually happens. And wouldn’t that be incredible if a tornado roared through while there was snow cover?? Anyone ever heard of that happening?
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 10, 2011 @ 10:57 pm
I have read about a tornado crossing snow cover and turning white. In this case though, even with 1-2 feet on the ground, I think it would be long gone before they have much of a threat.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 10, 2011 @ 11:17 pm
Temp dropped to 17 degrees here an hour ago. In about 45 minutes we will be having another Radcliffe coed morning, only the Radcliffe gal will also have low blood pressure …. bright, cold, and calm. Forecast for the coming week or ten days might be a snow-lover’s nightmare. A week in mid-February with forecasted highs in the upper 40s (Blacksburg) or 50s (Roanoke) AT LEAST with mostly sunny skies every day.
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 11, 2011 @ 7:04 am
DT is talking about 80 degrees here on the 18th.
Any real chance of that?
Comment by brandon r. — February 11, 2011 @ 9:46 am
It was 7 degrees here this morning in our valley in Eastern Montgomery Co…brrrrr (better than -28 though!)
Comment by TinaB — February 11, 2011 @ 9:49 am
Kevin, the next 2 weeks or so look to be some of the most unexciting, uninteresting weather in our part of the world. Cool/cold nights, warmer days, mostly sunny, and no storms of any notable sort anywhere in sight. Aside from the growing drought and potential for wildfires and the dry conditions expand from the drought and many dry and warm days, I don’t see much of anything happening here at least until the last 3-5 days of the month. But with the potential for severe weather elsewhere, I suppose that is the price for nice weather in the middle of winter.
Comment by Other John — February 11, 2011 @ 11:22 am
Hey Kevin,
Couple questions for you. I was looking at the weather daily highs and lows for the Roanoke/Salem area on the AccuWeather.com section. It is stating that daily highs will be starting today anywhere from the mid 40′s to mid to upper 50′s and even some 60′s each and everyday from now on thru the end of April. QUESTIONs??? How accurate are they?? Can we look now to nice weather being our daily thoughts now and throw the snow boots and shovels in the corner to collect the spider webs in the garage now. If AccuWeather.com is reliable if it wont snow I can live with what they are predicting.
Thanks Kevin
Comment by Sammy — February 11, 2011 @ 11:26 am
What is this that I see on Intellicast that they are calling for rain/snow/wind on Monday for here at FCX? Another clipper?
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 11, 2011 @ 1:04 pm
Just heard Henry On Accuwx! He seems to think some more storm chance are headed our way near the end of February and March. He says the cold wont be prolonged but will have small bursts coming out of Canada. He thinks the current warm spell is just for a few weeks. What is your opinion Keven. Oh by the way we got almost a inch of snow this last storm and we were not suppose to even see a flake. GO FIGURE!
Comment by Jared of Greene co. — February 11, 2011 @ 2:34 pm
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/tfx/tx.php?wfo=tfx&type=html&loc=text&fx=topweather
Read number 5 in this article. What will happen in Oklahoma is nothing compared to this.
Comment by AustinVT — February 11, 2011 @ 2:49 pm
This morning our little valley dropped to 6 degrees. Just think how low we could have gone if we had been blessed with snow cover. Well it may be a while before the ground is white again but I expect some before March or even April is over. Just about the time I am ready to make garden or turn the cows to pasture, the snow usually makes one brief comeback.
Comment by Michael Hoback — February 11, 2011 @ 4:18 pm
Robin Reed is doing the 5:18 weathercast, and used the Weatherbug site at Roanoke Catholic School. Amazing reading. Temp of 43, but the dew point is (drum roll, please!!) minus 3! Humidity 13%! This dry air has us by the short hairs now, and we all need more moisture. That’s what I get for using the word “dust” in a comment. I AM SORRY!
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 11, 2011 @ 5:23 pm
OK, here comes musical reference number 1. There have been 73 days since meteorological winter started on December 1. A whopping 49 of them {28 in December, 15 in January, and 6 (including today) in February} at Roanoke have been colder than normal comparing actual daily mean temperatures vs. the normals. And another 2 in January were exactly normal. So that is a bit more than 2/3rds. And December 1 was the 29th December day below normal as far as I am concerned, temp dropped to 45 degrees by dawn and stayed in the 40s the rest of that day. I wish I had been somewhere much warmer …. I know!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5mRk5M5qT8 DIXIE! “Then I wish I had been in Dixie, HOORAY! HOORAY! In Dixie Land I’d have played in sand, to live and sigh in Dixie!! Away, Away, Away down south in (southern) Dixie!!” NOTE: “Tune in” tomorrow about this time and I will have the 2nd reference. So Meg, did you guess correctly about this one?
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 11, 2011 @ 5:49 pm
Need a laugh? Just read the forecast for the Old Farmers Almanac. Won’t even be close….about as far off as one can get.
Feb 11-15: Snow showers, cold; Feb 16-19: Snowstorm, then sunny, cold
Comment by Rick — February 11, 2011 @ 10:01 pm
Sammy: Forecasting temperatures with a reasonable degree of accuracy — say 10 degrees either way — is not even possible beyond about a week. Are you sure that wasn’t a listing of normal high temperatures for those dates? I’ve never heard even of Accuweather projecting daily temperatures 3 months out. Can anyone more familiar with Accuweather project any light on this?
Jared: I think there will definitely be some returning cold shots and possibly even a cold pattern again, but timing is the issue. If it happens at the end of February or in early March there would be a reasonable chance of a winter storm developing. Later than that, and your fighting seasonal trends that aren’t impossible to overcome, but increasingly difficult day by day.
Carol: Yes there is a clipper forecast to move north of us early next week, dragging a cold front through for a brief cooldown, before the warming rend resumes.
Brandon: I think 80 may be possible in Richmond or Tidewater late next week. Our part of the state will probably top 70 a day or two but I don’t think we’ll quite make 80.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 12, 2011 @ 1:03 am
Just finished watching The Weather Channel after doing my back and shoulder exercises. They claim that a town called Nowata in Oklahoma reached -31 on Thursday for the new state record, FYI.
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 12, 2011 @ 6:13 am
Rick, I liked your comment #21 about OFA and being way off for us this coming week. I guess they also saw the Full Snow Moon on the 18th and got carried away. It may snow somewhere in the eastern USA on that date, but not here in SW Virginia. Hey, Doppler Carol, in some of your posts you mention “FCX.” To what does that refer? WCFX?
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 12, 2011 @ 6:49 am
On Accu weather site, there is a drop down tab for the year. When you click on April, you only see the hist. average. From today and 2 weeks out they predict. From 2 weeks out, they give historical averages. Which might be what Sammy saw, which are the average historical temps in the 60′s
Comment by wdbrand — February 12, 2011 @ 7:24 am
Actually the record state low for Oklahoma was set in Nowata at -31, not Bartlesville at -28.
Comment by Roanoke — February 12, 2011 @ 9:14 am
NWS-Tulsa is indeed now reporting Nowata at -31 as the preliminary new state low temperature record. Bartlesville is a major reporting station, so Tulsa reported it first because the temperatures are followed there hour to hour, whereas the smaller stations report daily highs and lows later.
It’s all subject to further scrutiny before any of it becomes official. Maine had a situation a few years ago where a preliminary all-time record low got widely reported, but then later it was pulled back by the weather service when it was determined the thermometer was faulty.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 12, 2011 @ 10:09 am
AustinVT referred to a 100-degree rise in temperature in a few hours in Montana. That would have been a result of a chinook wind off the Rockies, an extreme downslope warming event. Here’s an article about chinook winds that also mentions Spearfish S.D. going from -4 to 47 degrees in 2 minutes and 42 inches of snow disappearing in 6 hours in Alberta as a result of Chinook winds.
http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/elements/chinook.htm
To put it all in perspective — Roanoke hasn’t had a 100-degree temperature difference in the last decade (low of 3 in January 2009, high of 102 in August 2007).
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 12, 2011 @ 10:29 am
That would have to feel incredibly bizarre, to feel temps rising more than 50 degrees within 2 minutes. Crazy.
Comment by Jennifer — February 12, 2011 @ 1:14 pm
OK, Music fans, here comes the biggie. TWC 10-day forecast for Roanoke has every single day (except for next Saturday high of 48) as 52 degrees or warmer. Channel 7 is even more “optimistic” every day starting tomorrow at least 53, and that is only one day, Tuesday. All the others are 58+!! WDBJ is predicting a high of 64 for next Saturday. That illustrates perfectly what Kevin has pointed out many times … once you get beyond 3 or 4 days out, forecasts can be widely different and also VERY inaccurate. Anyway, I am FINALLY!! getting the warm spell I have been waiting in vain for during the previous 10 weeks. So, the following reference explains my elation. I think I will put it in a separate comment.
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 12, 2011 @ 5:12 pm
The link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwkCtuIauIE That’s right, the Battle Hymn of the Republic. Turnabout is fair play. Yesterday I honored the brave soldiers and men and women of the Confederacy, today it’s the Union troops and supporters and — from what I have been told — abolitionists. I hope that I am not offending anyone. But here are my lyrics: “Mine eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the WARMTH! We are trampling out the vintage where the grapes of COLD are stored. He will loose the fateful lightning of his WONDERFUL swift sword. His WARMTH keeps marching on!! Glory, glory Hallelujah. Teacher hit me with a ruler. Glory glory Hallelujah. His WARMTH is marching on!!!” You like? Reactions, please. And please try to be kind if you don’t like it …. And I do realize this warmup may be temporary.
Comment by Doug Griggs — February 12, 2011 @ 5:23 pm
Funny, Doug! I was actually surprised by what a pretty day we had today– mind you, I was the only person in our family who didn’t have a fleece pullover or jacket on when I was outdoors– I mean, dang, to a snow bunny like me, it was practcally summer temps outside!
What I am really ready for now, though, is rain, just like many of you.
Comment by Blossom — February 12, 2011 @ 9:25 pm