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1. Well, best of luck on the storm chasing trip! And enjoy the rest too, I plan on having a leisurely extended weekend, hopefully battling off the ‘crud’ quickly. I did manage to finally finish my yard work, and man did the efforts pay off. All of the flowerbeds are re-mulched, some with new mulch like pine bark or pine straw, others where I just took the old mulch, turned it, and covered the old stuff.

   One thing that was absolutely nuts though, was that the ground was completely saturated from all the rain. Everywhere I stepped today, water came oozing out of the ground. The hot and dry conditions will be very welcome, so long as we get some regular rains kicking back in about a week or so.

   We didn’t get a lot of rain today, probably less than 0.05″ total, but we had several bouts with quick-hitting and brief rain showers here…thankfully the sun didn’t come out too much, or the brief showers would have really juiced the air with higher humidity and possibly a better shot at afternoon storms.

2. Ok, I will help out with a strictly weather-related comment. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC forecasts show all of Virginia likely to be quite warm and relatively dry from the 2nd through the 10th of June. And guess which reporting site here in SW Virginia has had just about the lowest reading for the previous 24 hours? 2-way (is that the 2-Way Radio Company?) in Wytheville …. just 0.08 inches. Rick, Other John has done a great job of telling us how very wet he has been over the last 3 months …. why does Wytheville often get the short end of the stick in rainfall? Or is the last 24 hours an exception in a very wet period for your area, too?

3. Best of luck Kevin! Stay safe!

4. Kevin, I appreciate all the efforts in keeping us informed of the weather, and giving us some insight that high paid metrologists don’t always give.

   Be careful out there chasing tornadoes, and give us some video so we can gasp in wonderment.

5. Well, I barely got in my Summer Prediction Contest on time. I almost forgot that it was due at Midnight on the 29th. I thought it was the 30th. But luckily I sent it in with 5 minutes to spare. How many of you guys have sent yours in? And good luck Kevin with your storm chase trip! I hope you guys spot lots of tornadoes and stay safe!

   This rain for the past few weeks has really helped the Elett Valley out. Everything is green again and my roses are just starting to bloom wildly for the first time now. They bloom late compared to the rest of the trees and plants I have, but they’re on time!

6. well deserved break kevin. you have more than earned it. as crazy as last year’s winter was in our locale, this spring has been crazier . my heart goes out to those poor people that have lost loved ones.

7. Safe travels! Be well.

8. It is now 11 PM Sunday, 5-29. Kevin, this feels like the first evening of summer. I did an errand about 8:30, and it felt like a pair of 80s then. 80 degrees F, 80% humidity. Actual humidity might have been a bit lower, but not by much. Even now at a site about 2 miles from me (Cresthill subdivision in SW Roanoke County, just off Electric Road), temp is 73 and humidity is 76% (dew point of 65). At “The Cutting Edge” in Salem, if the reading is accurate, temp is 74 and humidity is 89% (71 dew point)!

9. This heat is too much.

   Mid 90s in late May?

   Give me a break.

10. GO HAWKEYES! ON IOWA!

11. I drove down to Draper quite early this morning, and it was one of the foggiest drives there ever. At Mile Marker 130, Ironto, on both sides of the I-81 bridge over the New River near Radford, a couple of other spots on I-81, and of course on the connecting road between US 11 and Draper Valley GC. Very foggy for the first 7 holes, which caused some challenges, but at least it stayed calm and cool and no need for sun block. By the time the round was over by 11:00, it was very sunny, 85 degrees, and starting to really cook. Got lucky to completely avoid a major tie-up on I-81 northbound; at about 1 PM signs indicated the interstate was closed northbound at mile 127, just “south” of (uphill from) Ironto, exactly the way I normally travel. Took the much calmer, more scenic US 11/460 via Shawsville instead. There may have been a major capture of a suspect on the interstate — we will find out more on the 5 PM newscasts. It was a good thing for me that I stopped for an early lunch in Christiansburg!!

12. And one more thing …. let’s all try to remember our American sevicemen and women who gave their lives to defend our freedom — which in my notso humble opinion is one of the most precious possessions all of us have. Have a wonderful day, everyone.

13. Kevin, like all of us here, I am anticipating your next update very much!! Sounds like both the central and eastern parts of Nebraska and SE South Dakota are getting hit very hard for the past several hours …. meanwhile, at 10 PM it is a midsummer-like 82 in downtown ROA and tomorrow’s high (WDBJ7) will be in the neighborhood of 98! Could this be a really cock-eyed heat season in which the hottest day is May 31st??!!??

14. I just watched early morning news and weather. The record high for this date in Blacksburg is 88. WDBJ7′s forecast high? 95!!!! Other eye-opening forecast temps for today: Danville 99; Wytheville 92 or 93; and perhaps the most amazing of all, Hot Springs 91!

15. I walked outside this morning to water the container plants and vegetable garden before the scorcher hits, and broke a sweat within minutes despite not doing much or really exerting much effort. It only took a few minutes, but the mugginess was already oppressive. And by the time I got to work, I could feel the heat building. It’s going to be a wicked hot day, and there’s a really good chance that today will be one of the top-5 hottest days of the year locally, if we do reach the mid-upper 90′s range in the NRV that is predicted. It could even be the hottest day of the summer, and we’re still in May…ugh.

16. Yes, Kevin-me-boy, you sure did pick the right time to leave Virginia. Two weeks ago today, 5-17-11, the high temp was 47 in Beckley, WV, only 48 in Bluefield, WV, and Blacksburg only reached 56. Today? Roanoke reached 96, Blacksburg reached 92, and according to a weatherbug site in Appomattox, VA, it reached 100!! However, Channel 7′s forecasted high was way, way off for Hot Springs today … it only reached 84 there, which is still very warm for them, particularly for May 31st. Delivering mail today was incredibly brutal. I even employed my frozen towel trick, but after it thawed about 11:30, it only stayed even a bit cool for an hour. Today was definitely one of my ten toughest days for delivering mail in the heat, but I must admit that my age is a factor. During the summer of my first year (1995) as a letter carrier in Falls Church, Virginia, one July Saturday it reached about 104, with a heat index of 115. But the route I was on today has a LOT more steps than the Falls Church route. What’s happening in the heartland? Radar that I saw earlier today appeared relatively quiet.

17. I just looked at the CPC multi-day maps, and that possibility you mentioned several days ago Kevin, about a late May – early June heat wave for SW Virginia, is very likely to happen!! Both the 6-10 day and even the 8-14 day maps show us with a 40% chance of being warmer than normal, with the hottest area centered over Tennessee and northern Bamalama. A bit likely to be on the dry side, too. Could June 2011 replace June 2010 as the warmest June ever?? I doubt it … I am thinking (and fervently hoping) that there is bound to be a cool spell here in SW Virginia sooner or later this month. Could there even be an abrupt swing to a much cooler than normal stretch? There sure have been lots of those abrupt swings (and I mean both from cool to warm as well as from warm to cool) since middle of March. But IWBIWISI. And feel it.

18. Let the Freak Show begin! Starting to look too much like last summer, with a stubborn high pressure making things miserable. Unfortunately, it’s a weather feature that is not easily dislodged, so its reign of terror lasts a l-o-n-g time. To get it this early is a kick in the gut.

19. The one minor saving grace was that, despite the record heat, the humidity was actually somewhat manageable so it didn’t feel nearly as hot as it could have. I noticed that last night when I was watering our veggie garden and checking on the shrubs I’ve transplanted, and spraying poison ivy. Once the sun got behind the trees, it actually felt pretty comfortable. Today feels a little more humid than yesterday, so assuming the front is strong enough to get some lift going to fire some storms, there’s probably enough fuel to keep them going in our area. We’ll see though. Looks like maybe a week to 10 days of heat, then possibly a cool down more to normal temps…I can only hope. The only thing I dislike more than summer heat is a cold and snow-less winter.

20. Long time since I’ve visited….6 more months until meteorological winter…already tired of the heat wave and worst tornado outbreaks in history! Colder air will be a welcome sight after what I’m going to predict to be a horrible hurricane season!

21. Maybe you should have went chasing in the northeast.

    I’m looking at a hook echo heading towards Worcester and Boston.

22. Sheesh…I should have stayed in Florida! At least it hasn’t been THAT hot here today since I got home at 2:30, but goodness, I watched the temps climb the further north I got from Tampa. I think we hit about 98 in GA at one point. I hope this pattern isn’t here to stay.

23. Well, another hot one back home, but not quite as toasty as yesterday. I just realized that we have gone either 6 or 7 days without rain in my neighborhood. It has been a loooooooong time since that had happened before … I don’t keep detailed records, but I would not be surprised if this is the longest dry streak since the 2nd half of February. And both Roanoke tv stations say that there is no organized rain on the models for the next 7 days. Are you in north-central Nebraska tonight, KM? Just north of I-70 it looks like a possible tornado band there.

24. Oops, I did not look at the map closely enough. It is north-central KANSAS that is getting quite a bit of action.

25. Just got back from a trip to Missouri. I see a lot of you had the hot stuff while I was gone. According to my memory thermometer, the high in Wytheville was only 88.2………and that must have been on Tuesday.

26. The heat isn’t bothering me. It’s the humidity. Folks, make sure to drink plently of fluids to stay hydrated.

    Next week, I’m headed south to Myrtle Beach, and I just hope it won’t be miserably hot down there.

27. Today, especially where I live (Elett Valley), was MUCH nicer than this past week has been. And tomorrow will be drier and a low of 50 here in the valley. Monday too looks a little better with a high of 80 and a low of 49. Is it me or did this and soon to be Monday’s cold front sneak up on all of us?

    Scott and Tina, good to hear from you guys again!! I agree Scott, this heat is TOO MUCH! I just hope that this summer can offer some cool breaks. If last summer did (particularly the early August one) which was the hottest on record, then this one should at least. Kevin, I hope your storm trip is going great!!

28. It has been hazy, hot and humid at the doppler. Thursday saw a decrease in temperature and humidity. It was a nice day. Today seems it will be the same. Farmers are out cutting hay! Hey, Kevin, as you head back east, could you and the storm chasers push the High Pressure dome east and out to sea? Bring us some cooler air too – Please!

29. I agree with you, Nick … on Sunday and Monday and perhaps even Tuesday, WDBJ7 was predicting nothing but 90s on each of its 7-day forecasts, so today’s high of 83 at RRA was only forecasted in the last day or two. Same with Monday. By the way, Nick, you seem somewhat interested in what the summer might hold for us in terms of heat. In comment 12 on May 26, and comments 29 and 30 on May 27th, I did some research and analysis into Roanoke’s May temperatures and whether they might give an indication of what the summer would be like. Bottom line: evidence indicated that if May is cool, the summer will be increasingly warmer than normal, with the August variance quite a bit warmer (vs. normal) than June’s. And vice-versa, too. If May is warmer than normal, like May 2011 was, then the trend will be for progressively cooler variances as summer progresses. If this trend holds true this year, all we need to do is get through June, then the summer will become milder (again, this is versus normal, not in actual terms) as August approaches.

30. We’ve got a possible contradiction by CPC. On both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts, they show all of Virginia in a better-than average chance of being hotter than normal. But both the North Atlantic Oscillation (especially) and the Arctic Oscillation are trending into negative territory about the 10th. Could we be getting a cooldown next weekend?

31. Keep in mind that there is often a delay of a few days between weather patterns and shifts in the big climate patterns like the NAO. So it may take a few days for that shift, if it develops, to be realized.

32. I checked on today’s CPC outlook, and sure enough (yes, Kevin, I realize that the ones on Satur. and Sunday they are strictly computer-generated), there is only a 33% chance of SW Virginia being warmer than normal for the June 10-14 period, and for the 8-14 day (June 12-18) we are in the all-white neutral zone for temps. And Doppler Carol, Other John, wd, Rick, and everyone else who grows stuff, possible good news. On both the multi-day CPC maps, SW Virginia is forecasted to be slightly wetter than normal. Certainly sounds like weather help is on the way, in addition to possible t-storms tomorrow. In summertime, I like a take-off of an old Rolaids commercial: “How do you spell relief?” “C-o-l-d F-r-o-n-t-s !!!”

33. As of 11:30pm Saturday night…Mean looking line of storms north of Charleston WV back to the Ohio river area slowly sinking SE torwards in general direction of Roanoke. Still over 100 miles plus from Roanoke, but curious if it will make it this far during the night, which if holds would be around 3am or later.

34. Those are very interesting results Doug. I hope it’s true. And boy do I hope that the NAO and AO stay negative. That would be great! Thank you for posting the research Doug, not only was it informative but it answered some of the questions I had. So Kevin, the storm trip was a dud this year? It seems like it was. That’s a shame. Not to stray off topic but a quick question to Doug: have you ever played at Hunting Hills Golf Course before? I played there for the first time recently (I heard about it and wanted to give it a shot) and it’s very tough and has some questionable/odd/interesting holes that seemed to be crammed in with narrow fairways (especially on the back 9). I have a friend who calls the course Hunting Balls because everyone who plays there, including this friend who’s a good golfer, loses their golf balls due to the narrow fairways. I lost a few too but not too much. My score was not good for the course, but seeing how hard it was, I’m more pleased with it than I would have been.

35. Nick, thanks for the compliment about my research. And don’t forget, even though what I found about the May variance and the June-July-August variances had several examples since 2000, that doesn’t mean that the warm May this year will lead to the same “decreasing-variance” trend for June-through-August of this year. Sort of like La Ninas leading to mild winters. For the four previous winters in which a strong La Nina was present, there had been a mild winter. Although this past La Nina was not quite technically a strong La Nina, it came close to being one, but we had a very cold winter, at least through early February. Just because there is a strong precedent or indication that one type of weather condition in the past has led to thus-and-such a condition in the following months, that same weather condition may lead to a different or even opposite result in the future. Another “exception” was the El Nino of 2007. Usually an El Nino goes along with wetter than normal conditions here. In 2007 we had a drought (the Mississippi River and Ohio River valleys got most of the wetness). Kevin detailed that one beuatifully.

36. Following is about a golf course, so please skip reading it if you are not interested. Nick, I really DO NOT like Hunting Hills GC. It has several trees in fairways, which I consider a colossal design flaw. Also, the 3rd fairway funnels tee shots TOWARD the rough, another design flaw. Par 3 4th has no bailout area. Your either on the green, or very close to it, or in some kind of trouble. Unless the golfer hits a strong draw or hook, he or she cannot use driver on the par 5 5th, another no-no IMHO. 10th would be a spectacular hole, but is way too narrow and has the cart path right beside the fairway. I guess except for those, I like it!! :>) :>) LOL It is sort of like having a straight 10-foot putt, leaving it three feet short and 2 feet off-line, and saying, “Well, except for the facts that it was short and way off-line, it was a great putt.”

37. Well, at 3:30 am this morning, the wind blew the doors shut in the house – we had the windows open. Then the lightning began but no thunder. I got up and saw we might get some rain but we must have been at the southern edge and it all went north of us – into Roanoke etc. Paul, last night I had seen those storms in southern Ohio heading this way but figured they would not make it across the mountains and they weren’t calling for any rain till this afternoon – Sunday. Wrong!

    Yes, Doug and fellow gardeners – we have been using our collected rain water to water the garden – corn, beans, broccoli, tomatoes, watermelon. Some rain and a little cool down would be most welcome up here on the mountain.

38. This date may be a first for me. Our dog awakened us at 3:30 by first whimpering, and then hopping in bed because he was scared. Lightning …. and some thunder. T-storm approaching from the NW. So I quick hopped out of bed and took him out, and sure enough saw a couple of spectacular lightning bolts to our west. Later today I spoke with a lady who lives in Elliston, and she said it sounded like a jet plane was flying low over their house, and they got a downpour. I wonder if the folks from Ellett Valley and Doppler and NRV have already posted about that. But we got zippo rain. Then this evening we watched another t-storm and spectacular lightning flashes. This one invaded from southern Alleghany and Botetourt Counties and the city of Roanoke a little after 7 PM, I think. A couple of lightning flashes were up close and personal, and Blondie-boy was doing his quivering mass of jelly thing. Then we finally got some rain …. for all of one minute!! No exaggeration. Not enough to cover the bottom of the rain gauge. First time in my life I can remember hearing thunder and seeing lightning in two separate parts of a day and getting no measurable rain. Again, I wonder if and hope that others have made posts about this evening’s storm.

39. I just checked on something else. Every day starting with May 21st, a period of 16 days including today, has been at least 3 degrees warmer than the normal mean temperature for both Blacksburg and Roanoke. Looks like that trend will continue for at least a few more days, too. Oh, Nick, you mentioned that you hope that the NAO not only becomes negative but that it also stays there (SO DO I, OF COURSE!!), but the graphs from CPC indicate a bottoming about June 12th or 13th, then a slight rise. I will try to post an update every 4 or 5 days or so. With luck this month might do an abrupt about face …. a very warm start, but a cool 2nd half. Sort of like a sports team that blows leads …. :>)

40. A little rain up here around 7 on Sunday evening. Not enough to even settle the dust.

41. I collect the A/C condensate water and use that in my garden for the moment, until we have rain barrels or a cistern to capture water off our roof. It works pretty well, I get a few gallons a day off that, and the drain allows me to place a watering can directly beneath it. I use it in the morning, and then again when I get home. It’s not a bad system, and given the dryness the past week, it’s been well used.

    We got just enough drops of rain Saturday night to get a measly 0.01″ of rain, but essentially it’s been bone-dry all month, and with the heat, it’s starting to become noticeable in a few places. The grass near the road by our house is a toasty brown now, while everything else remains deep green for now. But, if we go another week or longer without any meaningful precipitation, the impacts will be more obvious.

42. Had 2 different people say they saw “funnel-shaped” clouds in North Roanoke off Peters Creek near the airport last night. Neighbor lost a sizable portion of an ash tree…right onto his car. The tree won. We lost a lot of small branches on a silver maple, and the pea-sized hail did a number on the shrubs as well. Made a mess.

43. Yes, Other John, we collect the AC water too! We use a 5 gallon bucket and it can fill up in 24 hrs. I use it to water my flowers around the house.

    Kevin, welcome back to Virginia! Rest up from your storm chasing. Sorry to hear the hot pattern will be re-surging!

44. On the NAO discussion that Doug started………..here’s what wxrisk.com has to say right now. for what it’s worth?

    WEEKEND # 2….. JUNE 10-11-12
    In weekend #2 there has been some talk in the weather circles that a developing blocking pattern in Eastern Canada ( a -NAO) may be developing which could allow the jet stream over the northeast to drop to the south. This allow the entire northeast quadrant of the nation to turn somewhat cooler. However it needs to be pointed out that while the data does show a – NAO feature… it is NOT a true “Greenland Block”. Instead this -NAO appears to be eastern based ….that is to say centered somewhere over Iceland or the United Kingdom . As a result it appears that the pattern at least from this point in time will not allow for a cooling to occur over the New England and the Middle Atlantic states. Of course is still possible of the block in the pattern over Iceland and the United Kingdom and northeast Atlantic ocean… could still slide east…. And if that were to happen then the second weekend forecast would be significantly different.

45. Threatening skies all over the place right now, but nothing on radar. C’mon rain …. come give us a nice 1/3rd of an inch. Some of you can now serenade me with “Beautiful Dreamer, wake unto me ….”

46. Other John. That’s a curious observation. Here at the house, the grass closest to the road is always the first to green up and has the tallest weeds/grass all year. I’ve always chaulked it off to the chemicals used for snow removal and the crown of the road funneling more water to the edges. Maybe Kevin could check on this.

47. At 1pm Tuesday…looks like another strong line of storms crossing the Ohio River near Parkersburg WV heading almost straight south. If this holds like the other night, would be in the ROA & NRV Valleys before 5pm.

48. Another source of water is the de-humidifier. With 3 sides of my basement ubderground, I get around a gallon per day. Keep a bucket at the unit. Waters 2 or 3 container pots a day.

49. Rick, thanks very much for posting that more detailed information from wxrisk about the location of the negative NAO. That explains why the CPC maps from yesterday (they have not updated yet to today’s predictions) show a big heat bubble centered over Georgia for both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day maps. SW Virginia is in the 50% chance section of being warmer than normal. So much for my guess that we would have a cooldown by next weekend, it appears. If this June is another extremely hot one, that would make 2 in a row (last year’s was Roanoke’s alltime hottest, wasn’t it, Kevin?). In fact, the last year in which June was less than 2 degrees warmer than normal in Roanoke was 2006 (+0.3). June 2008 was a +4.0. June 2010 was a +6.2.

50. Kevin, I hope you are thinking of starting a new thread. We have an invading line of thunderstorms right now heading for Bluefield and the NRV. Right now they are bright red on the radar screens.

51. Hurray, we finally got some rain, and it is coming down hard now. Strong thunderstorm passing overhead now. Water is ponding everywhere.
    Anyone else having issues with the national radar? All I have been getting last few days is a list of links instead of the image.

52. Indian Valley John – nary a drop of rain here at the other end of the county! I saw the dark clouds heading your way and heard the lightning. Guess it is going to be one of those summers, where the southern end of the county gets all of the rain! Tuesday morning, I kept seeing the front coming out of Pittsburgh heading this way and kept hoping we would get some precip – the man of the house said it would miss us – he was right!

    wdbrand – yes, we run a dehumidifier in the basement and I also collect that water. One summer it was so dry that I was recycling the ‘gray water’ for our garden.

53. IVJ, yes, I’ve had that problem too, but the national loop works ok.

    We got a few drops of rain, but nothing measurable. And the 0.01″ we got the other day didn’t do much either. We’re now on 13 days with a scant 0.04″ of total precipitation and well above-normal temps.

    I’ve taken to watering the transplanted shrubs every other day, and the veggie/herb garden 1-2 times daily to keep it growing. We now have a nice 3-5 foot strip of mostly brown grass near the road. For us, while rain water does run into that area, we don’t get a lot of run-off that hits that area since the road itself is on a bit of a ridge, so the water is limited. Combined with the fact that I haven’t yet overseeded that area with a more drought-tolerant turf, it gets toasty regularly. The only stuff that seems to like it are the chickory and other weeds.