Tropical Storm Arlene has formed in the Gulf of Mexico – but for now, it’s expected to track west into Mexico (UPDATE 9AM 6/30: It has come ashore in Mexico) , and may even keep a lot of its rain away from drought-scarred Texas. Perhaps some of that moisture can get swept north in time. For us, it’s likely to be a non-event with no discernible impact.
We’ll be entering a dry period — some local areas around here are already in one, while others have gotten ample rain out of scattered storms. At first, we’ll see some cool mornings on Thursday and Friday, with lows in the 50s, perhaps a few 40s is deeper valleys, with highs rebounding into the 80s most places. Then, we’ll see some hot afternoons over the weekend, with widespread 90s, as the heat dome from the southwest expands over us again. I don’t think we’re likely to see 100 this time anywhere in our region with humidity starting to build again by early next week.
There is an important weather data event about to happen — on Friday, normal temperatures will be updated to represent the 1981-2010 period rather than the 1971-2000 period that’s been effective the last decade. There’s a lot of facets to this we’ll discuss in the future, here and in my Weather Journal column in the newspaper, but for now, here’s a PDF from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that looks at the rolling out of the new climate norms, what’s new, and some general changes in the norms to expect.