A little below normal, a little above normal, and some new normals
Tropical Storm Arlene has formed in the Gulf of Mexico – but for now, it’s expected to track west into Mexico (UPDATE 9AM 6/30: It has come ashore in Mexico) , and may even keep a lot of its rain away from drought-scarred Texas. Perhaps some of that moisture can get swept north in time. For us, it’s likely to be a non-event with no discernible impact.
We’ll be entering a dry period — some local areas around here are already in one, while others have gotten ample rain out of scattered storms. At first, we’ll see some cool mornings on Thursday and Friday, with lows in the 50s, perhaps a few 40s is deeper valleys, with highs rebounding into the 80s most places. Then, we’ll see some hot afternoons over the weekend, with widespread 90s, as the heat dome from the southwest expands over us again. I don’t think we’re likely to see 100 this time anywhere in our region with humidity starting to build again by early next week.
There is an important weather data event about to happen — on Friday, normal temperatures will be updated to represent the 1981-2010 period rather than the 1971-2000 period that’s been effective the last decade. There’s a lot of facets to this we’ll discuss in the future, here and in my Weather Journal column in the newspaper, but for now, here’s a PDF from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that looks at the rolling out of the new climate norms, what’s new, and some general changes in the norms to expect.
June 28, 2011 - 11:45 PM
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I know it’s not your doing, but Kevin, can you please pass along that the Captcha thing does not retain comments if you happen to forget to enter the code, or you enter it incorrectly? Maybe 10% of the time it will keep it, the rest of the time it’s just gone. I try to do a copy/paste to make sure I don’t lose them, but I forgot to do it earlier and lost a comment I had written for this post.
Ok, that aside, we stayed bone-dry yesterday, though the weather looked awful threatening for a time. It just flat-out fizzled. So that leaves us with just 1.62″ of rain this month, half of which fell in 20 minutes on June 12th.
I’ll be firing up the mower today or tomorrow to knock down the weeds, and the grass in a few shadier locations that are downhill and collected more of the rain this month. Up by the road I really only have weeds, and they’ve gotten quite scraggly; it was very apparent when headlights hit them that it’s past time to cut them down again. I just hope the CPC is right about above-normal precipitation chances after yet another dry week ahead.
Kevin, can you tell me where I might find cape values posted? Your explanation recently has sparked my interest. Thanks
Adam: If you go to this map, click on “Thermodynamics” and then pull down to the first item “Surface-based CAPE” you’ll find a map showing current CAPE values for our region. (the red lines — the blue shaded areas are “convective inhibition” or capping, another important variable, the higher it is the less likely convection is to break through warmer air aloft)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17#
Today CAPE is well below 1000 — and even it were higher, there’s no real triggers to realize the “potential energy.” (Plus there is convective inhbition, too).
My money says B’burg does not hit 90 this weekend. NWS already backing down high temps slightly from where they were a day ago. It has only touched 90 three times this year in the NRV, and I think we may escape again. Getting ready to open the windows and enjoy some 50 degree mornings the next couple of days – another beautiful cool summer west of the Blue Ridge.
If the outflow boundaries from storms in the Ohio Valley triggers showers/storms in our region Saturday and/or Sunday, and the moisture builds on schedule early next week, it would be possible that Blacksburg falls short of 90. My bet right now would be at least one day of 90.
The heat dome continues to be anchored over Texas/New Mexico/Oklahoma area, and as such, we often end up on the east side of it with a bit of NW flow to bring in fronts. If Tropical Storm Arlene were moving farther north I think the high would nudge a little more east and that would make it hotter. Looks like Arlene is staying farther south in Mexico.
I’m still thinking mid 90s (93-96) for Roanoke on a day or two.
Mike, I hope you’re right. Up here in the mounteens, it went from chuckin wood in the stove to runnin the A/C. These last couple on weeks has been plumb nice. Throw everything open and hit the whole house fan.
Just harvested our first lettuce of the season here, and we’ll have some squash in the next couple of days that is ready. Tomatoes probably in another couple of weeks. Nothing beats fresh produce direct from the garden and onto the dinner plate within 20-30 minutes of harvesting it. Gave some to the neighbors too, since I overplanted…somewhat on purpose!
Walking through the yard though, it’s definitely going brown and dormant due to the lack of rain. Right about now I wish my yard had more Bermuda graa for the drought tolerance and less Kentucky 31, but it’s ok I guess. The weather feels pretty nice right now and I appreciate that. Ought to make golf at Auburn Hills on Friday enjoyable, from a weather perspective anyway! I haven’t swung a club since I shot 89 there in the fall, I’ll be lucky to stay out of the triple digits…makes me wish I was still good enough to shoot in the 70′s, I miss those days.
A very dry air 46 this morning in Wytheville. It feels nice until I look at the brown yard.
Other John… I mow every week and a half to two weeks. Keeps my grass greener than my neighbors who mow every week. Plus, there is not enough moisture in the ground for the grass to grow fast enough. My neighbors (with brown lawns) last year noticed my pattern and started following suit.
Amanda, I’ve largely done that as well the past couple of summers, and I also mow at a higher setting from about mid-June through August so the grass isn’t too short. If I could get rid of the weeds, then it would look great! I’ll mow weekly in cooler/wetter weather though, simply because if I don’t it gets too shaggy and thick. But summer I definitely reduce the mowing a bit. One summer a couple years ago during our last really bad drought, I think I mowed monthly, and that was only because the weeds threatened to hold the cats hostage…
It was 45 F this morning right before the sun came up! Was a super night to lay out and watch the stars. Saw at least 8 satellites; the International Space Station; 3 shooting stars and one shooting star that went clear across the sky in 3 spurts – or was it space junk?
Still no rain here.
Weeds or no weeds, if it’s not calling for rain for 5/7 days, it don’t get mowed. I’m not on the garden and home tour anymore.
Wow,the BBurg Forecast map was all white earlier today. It looked weird without any warnings, advisories or statements posted for the area.