First half of coming week looking very rainy, thanks to Lee and a stalling front
Sunday will be one more day like the last three — hot and humid, highs in the 80s to low 90s, and afternoon storms, some of which could be heavy or even severe. Then, everything changes.
Earlier this summer, seeing 97 for Roanoke and 90s for other regional cities like at left, you would probably have presumed this to be a map of predicted high tempeatures. But it’s not — it’s a map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center showing precipitation probabilities forecasted for the period from Monday evening to Tuesday evening. To call for a 97 percent chance of rain some 60 hours out is a huge vote of confidence for expected rainfall — substantial, drought-easing or -ending rainfall, and possibly heavy rainfall. Other maps from HPC show a slight risk for flooding rains – being nearly 3 days out and entering the rainy period relatively dry (a little less so in spots with recent storms) has held that risk down some, but it may yet go up as we get closer and the forecast solidifies – and the potential for 4-6 inches of rain in the next 5 days. All of this is the result of the interaction between Tropical Storm Lee and an approaching strong, summer-breaking cold front crossing the central U.S. The weather map linked here shows how, by Tuesday morning, the remant circulation of Lee will get entangled with the front, which is expected to become stalled very near our region, or just east. We’ll have moisture streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic, the lift of the front, some of the old squalls from Lee, humid air overriding cooler air, and our mountain topography providing yet more lift. It will indeed 
be very hard (though never impossible in weather) to miss significant rain with all that, though there remains a good bit of uncertainty about how much will fall in our area, depending on the exact track of Lee’s remnants and the placement of the front. Some of that uncertainty has narrowed as it appears likely that Lee will scoot out a bit faster, with the majority of its effects in the Labor Day to Wednesday time frame. A remnant circulation center may hang back and keep some showers going into Thursday and Friday.
Plenty of models and forecasts show the higher-end 4-plus-inch amounts for our region, but some do take the heaviest core of Lee’s moisture a bit to our west. I’m leaning toward more of the 2-3-inch totals with some locally heavier amounts, but as anyone who remembers the Flood of 1985 knows, a stationary front combined with a slow-moving tropical system can spell major trouble if it connects just right. This is not a situation to get overly nervous about (it would be much different if we were in a period of widespread wetness right now) but certainly one to monitor the next few days, especially if you live near a flood-prone creek or river.
The influx of tropical moisture will somewhat lessen the effects of the encroaching Canadian air mass — we are less likely to see crisp 40s morning than we would have otherwise been this week. Butwith the southerly jet stream dip likely to stick around for many days, another cold front may yet arrive to sweep the tropical moisture away and bring on cooler, fall-like weather in the next couple of weeks. One of these damp days this week could still get stuck in the 60s, and even after Lee clears, near normal temperatures with 70s and low 80s for highs and 50s to low 60s for lows appear to be on tap.
September 3, 2011 - 11:29 PM
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We need the rain, I’ve been missed on both sides for what seems like forever. Galax got a heckuva storm yesterday at about 5 and I got nothing. Don’t want the wind damage but need the rain.
Was that just an aftershock?
Last aftershock was Saturday at 5:10 p.m., says U.S. Geological Survey.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Maps/US2/37.39.-79.-77_eqs.php
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/se0903011a.php
In the past 3 days, we exceeded our total rainfall from July 27-Sept 1. With the upcoming rain potentials, we may well wind up doubling our total summer rainfall within the first 10 days of September.
Pretty foggy in spots on the drive down to Draper Valley GC very early this morning, especially between Ironto and Exit 118 (in the blasting zone area) and between Exits 114 and 109. Surprisingly, the bridge over the New River in the Radford area was clear. A couple of my tee shots went off into the “gloaming,” but luckily I had a very good day driving the ball, so I found the ball easily …. my putting was horrendous, however. The creeks were full at DVGC and the huge metal pipes that transfer water between their 7 ponds were dumping lots of water. They also got over an inch of rain yesterday.
So who wants to be named as the new “Mayor of Brownsville?” Betsy? Indian Valley John? Elizabeth? It won’t make any difference, because I have a feeling that ALL OF US will get at least 2 inches over the next 4 days. Michael Hoback, you might really get dumped on down in Washington County. Looks like you could get 5 or 6 inches, and I bet the higher elevations (are you in that category?) get more than the lower elevations. And folks in southern West Virginia might get even more than that! Could be some serious flooding there. And I don’t remember hearing about the Clinch River flooding recently …. but they had a really bad one at some point that was at least 5 years ago (probably more like 8 or 9 I would guess). That river is another potential flood candidate.
I wonder how many 100 degree days Dallas had this year. A run at the record of 42 consecutive 100′s was stopped at about 40 some 3-4 weeks ago. I see they only got to 99 yesterday which may be their last one for this year.
Significant change from the NHC on Katia. It will now be a major hurricane by tomorrow and stay that way for 3 days. Good thing it is going to perfectly split the difference between Bermuda and NC’s outer banks.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145134.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
Exit polling following Saturday’s storms show that I am is still in the race for “Mayor of Brownsville”, especially comparing my .43 inches of rain to some of the other amounts…but hope springs eternal that we all get needed rain (without the flooding, naturally). When is the rain likely to be the heaviest along the I-81 corridor? My daughter will be driving from D.C. on Tuesday morning.
I told you that the Blackwell-Helton Reunion would end our dry spell. We had about 50 in the front yard for lunch but now the rain has come. Not heavy but enough to drive us inside. The campers took down their tents before the rain started. We will have 18 in the house tonight and my mom will have an additional 9 in her house tonight. The one lone camper across the road will have another 7. That makes a total of 34 and they will all stay until the country ham breakfast is over in the morning. Bring on the rain.
Looks like far SW Virginia and especially West Virginia are getting some t-storm action. From Lee? Probably not, probably from the approaching cold front. But the storms ARE moving south to north, or SSW to NNE, not west to east. Kevin, please enlighten this COLC. The “happy” COLC. Even if my back yard has not greened up quite as much as I was expecting …..
Check out these maps? Locally 10+” no way
http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/article/tropical-storm-lee-flood-threat_2011-09-03
Flash flood watch extends as far north as Bluefield, Pulaski and Floyd now. Weather service expecting to expand this later.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/emer/emer.php
To answer Doug’s question: We’re getting to the point where we won’t be able to really distinguish what is the front and what is Lee, as their effects are merging into one big rainy entity. Tonight, the western areas of the region will have the best chance of heavy rain, expanding slowly eastward as the front lowly moves eastward and Lee’s remnants start moving northeast. It may be well into Monday afternoon or even the evening before locations east of I-81 get much rain.
High of 89 today at RRA. +6 on the mean temperature. All 4 days this month have been above normal by at least that 6-degree variance. That all ends tomorrow. I wonder when the next day will happen when: A. the high temp reaches even 86; B. the mean temp will be more than 1 degree above normal (we will be having very mild mornings, I think, with all this moisture and humidity); and C. the next day will happen when the biggest chance of rain in the forecast is 10%. If someone had told me 10 days ago that things were going to do a complete reversal from hot and dry to wet and cool (at least as far as the high temps are concerned) this abruptly …… well, I would think their last name was Myatt …..
Elizabeth, comment 9, the new mayor of Brownsville — but not for more than a day, methinks. Kevin very wisely always declines to give travel advice, but I have no such inhibitions. I do not like driving on I-81 north of here because of all the massive numbers of tractor trailers, on sections that are in places extremely curvy and hilly. I especially despise doing it in a heavy rain, which seems like a certainty on Tuesday. All it takes is for one of those big rigs to jack-knife on the wet highway, and I-81 would be possibly closed in that direction, to say nothing of the chance that someone gets badly hurt. I and especially my wife used to drive back and forth quite a few times between metro DC and Roanoke many years ago, and there is another way to go, although it would almost certainly take more time. US 29 south from Gainesville around Warrenton all the way to at least Charlottesville, and perhaps all the way to Lynchburg and then go on US 460 west. It has problems of its own with many curves and hills, and some traffic lights, but the number of big rigs is probably 1/10th of the number on I-81. I am only presenting it as an alternative, something to condsider.
Kevin, so you’re thinking that from Roanoke westward we may see a rain free day for the most part?
Thanks!
Wayles: I think you mean Roanoke EASTWARD — west is already getting rain and likely to through the night and Monday. From Roanoke eastward, I wouldn’t say Monday would necessarily be a rain-free day, but perhaps a showery day. There may be some gaps in rain Monday as the bands of inflowing moisture take shape.
Oops, yep, meant eastward! Thanks!
To Rick….the Dallas area has had 68 day of 100 or above this year. We are one day short of tying the record of 69 days set in 1980. In this part of the country we still could tie or break the old record yet.
Latest National Hurricane Center “cone” shows Lee curving westward into the Ohio Valley. What gives?
Art: Lee is becoming an “extratropical” broad circulation, not a tight rotation like many stronger hurricanes remain inland, so its exact center point will be of litle consequence to our rainfall chances. In fact, keeping it west will keep us in moisture inflow longer rather than a more eastward track that might allow the drier air on its west side to push in earlier. There is some chance the axis of heavier rain sets up a bit west or east of us but that would mean just means we get 1-3 inch amounts instead of 3-plus.