Major cold front blows by Friday morning; Saturday high temperatures poised to set records for chilliness
By the time most of you get around Friday morning, the strong cold front will already have blown past Southwest Virginia. It’s wasting no time — it’ll have cleared all of Virginia by Friday evening, and all of Florida by Saturday evening. Behind it, winds will pick up out of the west on Friday, but under sunny skies, temperatures will still make the 60s to low 70s most places. As low pressure develops along the front just off the mid-Atlantic coast later Friday and moves northward along it Saturday, the more intense push of cold air from the northwest will begin, driving temperatures into the 40s (some mid-upper 30s in outlying areas) by Saturday morning. Cold air blowing over the warm Great Lakes, then lifting up the higher terrain of the western side of the Appalachians and condensing, will lead to clouds and some showers Friday night into Saturday. It’s really the same northwest upslope pattern we see intermittently through the winter causing mountain snow squalls — and at the highest elevations, roughly 3,500 feet and up, there could well be snowflakes on Saturday morning, especially along and west of the Interstate 77 corridor and Virginia-West Virginia border. I would not be surprised at all if some locations in western Greenbrier County, W.Va., (think Quinwood) up through the Snowshoe Mountain area got a quick inch or two of slush on grassy areas late Friday into early Saturday. Farther east, and lower in elevation, the surface layer of air is probably going to be too warm to let flakes reach the surface. But there may be enough clouds to really hold back temperatures Saturday — records for coldest Oct. 1 high temperature of 57 at Roanoke and 51 at Blacksburg, both set in1984, could definitely be equalled or beaten. A chilly, breezy night in the 40s will greet the Clemson Tigers to Blacksburg for the game with Virginia Tech on Saturday night — dress like it’s November if you’re going to that game.
Winds may keep frost from forming Sunday morning as tempertures drop into the 30s in much of the area. Winds keep the air mixed, not allowing cold air to simply sink to the surface, and not allowing exposed objects to cool off enough to collect ice crystals. By Monday morning, though, if skies clear and winds still, frost will become more of a possibility, especially in outlying rural valleys into which cold air can sink, and where some readings in the 20s may occur. Roanoke’s official reading may hover in the low 40s on those mornings due to the typical “urban heat island” effect and downsloping winds, but some parts of the metro area will probably be in the mid to upper 30s. Remember that official temperatures are taken at 6 feet above ground, so it can be cold enough for frost at the ground surface under ideal radiational cooling conditions (clear skies, no wind) when it is still a few degrees above freezing at the 6-foot level. In most of Southwest Virginia, it will be a good idea to bring in sensitive plants this weekend.
September 29, 2011 - 9:17 PM
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I am watching Channel 10 news, and they just had a brief story about this year’s grape crop in Virginia. It is in jeopardy. Grapes evidently like lots of sunshine and some moderate rains this time of year, and we all know how Virg. has been pounded with heavy rains and lots of cloudy day nearly all month. Experts say that 2 weeks of almost uninterrupted sunshine before the end of October to salvage the crop …. good luck. Speaking of sunshine, today was perhaps the first day this month that it was: A. mostly sunny (at least here in ROA); B. dry air; and C. not hot. We had lots of sun during the first 4 days this month, and I cannot remember if they were humid, but they were all at least 87*.
Next 2 weeks may be their best shot at that long a stretch of sunny, dry days.
Kevin have to keep a photo journal of the weather each week for my class, think it would be cool to capture the first flakes of the year. Think I would get lucky enough at Mt. Lake, or would you recomend a drive to quinwood?
Really big “inversion layer” happening right now. Temp at Channel 7: 56. My back yard: 63. Once in a while I am warmer than the Roanoke valley floor, but rarely is it more than 3 degrees. On 2nd thought, WDBJ’s thermometer may not be reflecting other temps in the area. Temp at top of this page right now is 61.
Here is another big disagreement: Forecasted high today in ROA. Per TWC: 66. Per WDBJ7 and the NWS: 72. I am wearing shorts …. I sure hope the NWS is accurate.
Ray’s Weather in NW NC is calling for 1-2″ of snow above 4,000′ for early Saturday! I think the NWS is still under playing the cold. The high temp in Blacksburg will only be 46 (not 50 as forecasted) on Saturday (5 degrees colder than the all time record min max for October 1st). People have no idea what is coming….just remarkable cold for this time of year. And the wind chills Saturday evening during the VT game will be brutal for October 1st.
So I’m waiting for the knock on the door….Cold Front…Land Shark…CandyGram! Dressed in Hokie Warm today and hope I am not disappointed! Our spirit rally will be frosty tonight.
Certainly think 1-2 inches in high elevation of NC is not unreasonable. would not be surprised to see locally 2-4 inches in some WV high areas. Models have been pretty agressive with precip up there. The unfrozen Great Lakes will supply a lot of moisture on NW winds to upslope areas.
Zach, I think Mtn Lake will get some flakes. Quinwood and surrounding areas will get more, but that’s a pretty long drive. Fancy Gap may get a few flakes, too. Mt. Rogers/Grayson Highlands most certainly some snow.
The front is lagging a little behind the weather maps posted in this blog entry. It will matter very little in the end. The really blustery cold air is hanging pretty far behind the initial front, anyway.
Time of the year to break out the crock pot and make apple butter. Apples are plentiful, the weather is right and mainly, about out of last years. Fast cook crock pot is the only way to go for home making in small batches.
Some snow coming to Snowshoe, WV.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Snowshoe&state=WV&site=RLX&textField1=38.4091&textField2=-79.9957&e=0
Winds have switched to west or northwest across the area and dew points are dropping through the 50s and 40s. So the front has passed. We’ll see the temperatures follow suit once the sun goes down.
Overall, a really nice day out there. It is a “little” blustery but the sun is shining brightly. I’ve doubled the clothespins so the laundry doesn’t end up in Franklin and Patrick counties.
wdbrand – yep, time to get the crock pot out. I’m thinking French Cassoulet soup and homemade bread. The woodstoves and chimneys are ready – just need to bring in a load of wood.
I would not be surprised if Roanoke’s high for Saturday is set at midnight — if it’s above 57 then, it could spoil the potential record. Probably will be a little cooler. Blacksburg will probably be well into the 40s at midnight and may bounce back a little Saturday.
Me too DP. Got a dead tree down and I’ll get it in the AM. Don’t recollect that french soup you mentioned. What and how?
Opps—– D. Carol
NWS-Blacksburg says some light accumulations of snow — 1/2 inch or less — may occur in Whitetop-Mount Rogers area of Grayson County — 4,500-5,800 feet areas.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=36.63757008123925&lon=-81.59271240234375&site=rnk&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text
Wind advisory has been added for counties along the Blue Ridge from Roanoke/Blacksburg southwestward.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/emer/emer.php
Want to read about a truly big snowstorm in early October that dumped 20 inches in parts of upstate N.Y., 18 inches in western Mass., and 12 inches in part of Vermont? Google “Big October 4th snowstorm in the Northeast” and you will probably find it. It was October 4, 1987, and I have a friend who lives in Lee, Mass (extreme western Mass.), and he got a foot. He said Albany, NY got 16 or 18 inches. Kevin, if such a snowstorm hit here anytime before Veteran’s Day, you would probably get 500 hits on this blog within 24 hours.
I just saw a very brave family on West Main Street, Salem. They were driving along in their dark red SUV, and had two of those “fit-in-the-window” mini-flags waving. One was orange. So I thought for sure they were Tech fans. Wrong. Clemson fans. Probably freezing to death ….. Hopefully they will be driving home Sunday very unhappy …..
Oct. 10, 1979, was the memorable early season snowstorm in the central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic. Roanoke got 0.3 for its earliest measurable snowfall on record, but 3-7 inches fell in parts of WVa and northern Va. DC area got dusting to 2 inch amounts.
Blog hits are in the tens of thousands around snow threats now. You probably mean 500 comments.
A little addendum to that bit about the 10-4-87 big snowstorm. It left 300,000 people without power. The leaves were still on the trees, and with all that wet snow on them, and probably high winds as the storm was leaving, massive numbers of trees and big limbs came down. Believe me, nobody should want a big snowstorm while the leaves are still on the hardwoods.
Checked nearest weather station to Clemson, Anderson SC, earlier. Coolest morning so far this month was 54 degrees. No days yet this season have had a high lower than 71.
Here’s a B/W photograph from the Shenandoah Valley during the aforementioned Oct. 10, 1979, snowfall.
http://fineartofphotography.blogspot.com/2009/07/snow-storm-1979.html
KM, comment 21. Yep, I used the wrong phrase/word. I meant “comments.” Hey, next time this blog has a huge number of hits in a day, would you please announce it? It can be the next day or two for all I care. Meanwhile, according to wunderground, which is probably wrong, today’s high at ROA was 72 and the mean was 66, a +3 vs normal mean. I thought I saw Robin Reed show today’s high was at least 75 in the Almanac section a few minutes before his weathercast on the 6 PM news. Whatever, it was definitely another warmer-than-normal day here in ROA. That makes 11 straight days with the actual mean warmer than the normal mean, thanks to all those mild mornings. Month will end up something like 0.9 degrees warmer than normal. Still, despite all the rain and gloomy days, it was a fabulous month as far as I was concerned. I got the green back!!! And it was not blistering hot.
How cold does it have to get before ragweed dies? I hope we get that cold this weekend, if only so I can get some allergy relief!
Fred’s Mercantile on Beech Mtn, NC elev 5,028′ (official NWS weather station) is reporting 40 degrees at 8pm. Looking for 2-3″ of snow up there tonight and tomorrow. Check out the webcams tomorrow up there – should be intersting. Kevin – do you know what the earliest measurable snowfall is for the state of VA? I know folks on Beech Mtn. who claim that snow has fallen in every month of the year except July and August…just curious if you know anything about it?
wdbrand and anyone wanting a good soup recipe – Easy French Cassoulet Soup
http://www.food.com/recipe/easy-crockpot-cassoulet-soup-440668
I make it all chicken broth – no wine; I chop up chicken breast tenders or fillets; and I use kielbasa. Make sure all meats and carrots are bite size pieces. I think it is the best soup for those cool autumn days.
Mike: I have heard that snow has accumulated in late August on the top of Mount Rogers, elevation 5,700-foot plus, in Grayson County.