UPDATE 4:30 PM: Wind advisory on heavy travel day; remembering unusual Thanksgiving weekend storm 61 years ago
UPDATE 4:30 PM, 11/23: High wind warnings have been downgraded to wind advisories for this evening. That could still mean some 50ish gusts. Be careful driving to your Thanksgiving destinations. END UPDATE
Today’s Weather Journal column: The Great Appalachian Storm of 1950. I’m soliciting recollections from readers who may remember the snowstorm that buried our region and especially those just west of us 61 years ago this weekend. Email me at kevin.myatt@roanoke.com or post a comment on this blog if your remember that event.
We don’t have winter storm conditions to be concerned about this Thanksgiving weekend, but on this big travel day, we do have lots of wind. A high wind warning, for northwest winds behind the cold front that moved through this morning gusting near 60 mph at times, is up for several counties along the Blue Ridge including the Roanoke Valley, and wind advisories are in effect for gusts topping 50 mph for most of the rest of Southwest Virginia to the west. All travelers should be aware of the high winds today, especially those driving high-profile vehicles, and while going through narrow mountain valleys than can channel the winds and exposed ridgetops without protection from the gusts. Interstate 77 through Fancy Gap in Carroll Gap, a notoriously dangerous area for a variety of weather conditions due to a unique geological situation, may be especially hazardous today. The chilly northwest winds and the bright sunshine will be waging a battle for the thermometer today that will more or less end up being a draw, with temperatures holding steady near where they are (mid 50s to low 60s, mostly) much of the day and perhaps gradually dropping during the afternoon. The air behind this front is cold but not extremely so — widespread 30s are likely by Thanksgiving morning. Thanksgiving, Friday and Saturday still look to be unseasonably mild afternoons with highs in the 60s.
We’ll be watching next week’s storm system to see if the forecast models now are on to something with it cutting off a cold pool of air somewhere over the south-central or southeast U.S., cold enough for wet snow in the south while warmer air circulates east and north and causes rain to the north. Most indications for now are that we would be east of the cold pool and would experience rain, but this is all subject to change as details become more focused. I’ll take a closer look at this later this holiday weekend.
For something truly beautiful about this morning’s weather – here are some photos of rainbows this morning from Cathy Benson on the Botetourt View blog. The upslope flow of northwest winds over the mountains may squeeze out a few light showers today … enough for the morning sun to refract through and create rainbows.
November 23, 2011 - 10:47 AM
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Something interesting I just found in a Southeast Regional Climate Center report:
“It was the coldest October ever observed at the summit of Mount Mitchell, NC in a record extending back to 1980.”
Granted that’s not much of a period of record, but interesting nonetheless.
Southeast region October climate report in full: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2011/10#SERCC
Something to note: The front is where the strong winds begin. But the reason winds are expected to intensify this afternoon is low pressure tightening up off the East Coast and high pressure strengthening and moving closer from the west. The pressure gradient between these two features will strengthen winds, with our mountainous terrain breaking the more smoothly flowing winds just above the surface into wave-like gusts.
Good read here from one of the top experts on how snowfall forecasts “bust”:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/why-are-snowstorm-forecasts-sometimes-so-wrong-part-one/2011/11/23/gIQA4ZfaoN_blog.html
Kevin, I sent an e-mail about the storm. If you find the post that I put up on your blog, e-mail me back.
Check out rainbow over Roanoke I captured last month. Thanks!
http://www.flickr.com/photos/terryaldhizer/6243589907/in/photostream/lightbox/
Ok I am baffled! Accuweathr/Henry M. is now retreating and saying the winter is going to be very warm with very little if any snowstorms for the east! DT and Joe Bastardi continue to say Winter arrives slowly the first few weeks of December! Joe Bastardi actually shows this on the GFS ensembles on his facebook page. Just wondering who to believe in all this?
Awesome article about the forecast “busts”. Can’t wait for part 2. On another note, the 12:22pm discussion from the NWS says “no temperature update needed”. My temp has dropped from 61 to 52 in the last three hours. Not that an update would bring me a thicker coat to work LOL.
We received 1.01 inches begging yesterday morning in Goodview. About .90 of which came with the big downpoor around 11:30 last night.
12Z GFS has taken a step away from the weird cutoff idea next week, with more of a progressive trough that brings the cold air eastward behind a cold front like we would more typically expect.
But here’s last night’s Euro run, with snow in Mobile and then Atlanta and rain in Chicago. Follow the blue colors for where it would be cold enough to snow.
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2011/11/00zeuro850mb144hr1123.gif
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2011/11/00zeuro850mb168hr1123.gif
I’m surprised no one has posted this yet:
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=FCX
Doppler Carol checking in from up on the windy ridge. The wind is really whipping out there and has blown a limb or two across our road. In the last 24 hours we have had “.64″ inches of rain.
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone – back to cooking and baking. Gobble, gobble.
The 12Z snowfall map posted by Travis is getting closer to an upslope/elevation dominated event for our region, which would be in keeping with how the 12Z changed from the previous look.
It seems like every storm for the last few weeks has been very similar with the most precipitation above the Mason-Dixon line. I know every storm is different but do you think we will be seeing this storm track a lot this winter, or if a track like this is associated with La Nina?
La Nina historically does favor a farther north storm track. Often the southern branch of the jet stream never really even gets going in a La Nina winter. But also, this early, the jet stream hasn’t settled as far south as it will by January, so some of it is seasonal.
STOP THE PRESSES!!!
Wednesday PM 12Z Euro Loop:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html
Euro now beginning to show signs of a Low forming late on the 29th over Southern GA then moving northeast to just east of VA Capes on the 30th. Per the Euro, colder air could be in place over the Mid-Atlantic for this Low. Still on track for a heavy rain/severe storm outbreak on the 27th & 28th for east of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers.
One last thing to note is at hour 240…Things in Western Canada & Alaska are beginning to change.
Jared…
As in “The Wizard of Oz”, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain i.e. Mr. Henry M. @ Accu Blunder. Recall last year, he said the same thing almost at the beginning, but when the Christmas Blizzard hit the NE, he changed his tune. De Ja Vu.
Not ready to commit on particular storm systems that far out, but I do agree with what Quagmire posted on one major point: I think the long-awaited pattern change is finally waiting in the wings and will develop during the first couple of weeks of December. Whether or not we get the Greenland blocking that would really lock in the cold, we do appear headed toward high pressure in the Pacific Northwest/western Canada that would push us toward a PNA+ pattern — high pressure in the west driving more cold air into the East.
The coming storm early next week is probably not the pattern-changer, but may be a precursor to it.
Cap’t, Yogi said it best. “It’s de ja vu all over again.
Does anyone have any clue what to think of next weeks storm? It has the looks of either a closed low, a cold front simply stalling out and washing out, or like quagmire said, a low coming up the coast, catching up with cold air on the backside. Any idea?
An observation, followed by a question. I have noticed that the northern 2/3rds of the U.S. Pacific coast is being battered since Monday by wave after wave of incoming rain. Seattle had 0.42 inches on Monday, 1.58 yesterday, and so far today 0.96, with rain in the forecast right through at least Sunday. Somewhere on tv (prob’ly TWC) they should a map of the eastern Pacific with winds bringing rain from Hawaii all the way to Washington state, Oregon, and the Bay area northward in Calif. Is such a system called “The Pineapple Express?” I heard that phrase many moons ago, but don’t remember if the phrase and what has been happening recently match.
Doug: I haven’t heard that phrase uttered yet in relation to this event, though it might apply. That typically is used during an El Nino situation that keeps the subtropical jet hammering the west coast. This is more of a short-term situation related to the PNA- pattern, low in the Northwest.
Zach: Quagmire was referring to a coastal low possibly developing AFTER the coming storm next week. I’m betting it ends up a rather typical progressive low with a cold front rather than the closed-off/cutoff stuff the models have been throwing out there the last couple of days.
By the way, a fellow letter carrier (and a once-in-a-long-while commenter here) alerted me to your article in today’s newspaper. Fascinating stuff. Tell me where I am off, but from the sound of the weird, Twilight-Zone, storm track that Thanksgiving storm in 1950 took, it sounded eerily similar to the track through Virginia that Hurricane Isabel took in September 2003. Heading NNW. Unusual but not unheard of for a hurricane, REALLY rare for a winter-type storm.
wd and Doppler Gal, remember that disappearing rainstorm that happened on Monday? Well, did you see any “cloudy draws?” Any old cowpokes resting on a ridge? Well, maybe it was the following: (one of my favorites on youtube — my brother adored this song back around 1960, when I was still in grade school) WARNING, this is one looooong listing of characters, chances of a Griggsy screwup are very high. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHk9fx5RNr0&list=FL9LGzY1s7Sn5ra2V43avj_g&index=5&feature=plpp_video .
I’m liking that 2.0 rain the HPC says is coming next week. I only had 0.50 this week. Rain, not snow………right Doug?
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif
From Snowshoe’s website. I’ll take that rain.
Mother Nature has dealt us a bad hand over the last 36 hours. We’ve received 2.5 inches of rain and the conditions that looked so terrific on Saturday have now become unmanageable. We’re sad to say that we’re not opening tomorrow for skiing. However, the holiday weekend at Snowshoe will still be packed with fun with the Village shops, restaurants, Split Rock Pool and the Big Top open. We will keep everyone updated as a new game plan develops for snowmaking.
Dont see any evidence of a Pineapple Express going on right now..
Mid and low level winds are very light in the Pacific just north of the Equator..and even at 39000ft are light east to west.
100kt plus jet well to the north ..west to east turning down the Cali Coast
with the north bound wave coming ashore in the Northern Baja
I dont know what the jetstream looked like a couple of days ago..
but the portion thats moving NE over the Baha now could very well have been placed near the islands then…now its just straight west to east winds hitting the Pacific Northwest Coast..
“Kenneth” continues to move westward away from Mexico/Central America..movg WNW at 10 kts..its riding right along 15N latitude..max sustained 55kts
Isabel sorta took the same path as Appalachian Storm across Va, but then the Appalachian Storm made that west curve into Ohio.
There was another big snowstorm around the turn of the century (1900ish, I’m talking about) that had a very similar surface weather map to the Appalachian Storm. So this may be something that happens, say, about twice a century.
Rick: I saw the Snowshoe report on Twitter today, actually “re-tweeted” it. Snowshoe has had some pretty good early season weather in recent years, and I guess it looked good after October’s rounds of snow and cold. Bet they have good skiing for Christmas!