2012.01.28
UPDATE 8:45 PM: Another push into 60s (maybe 70?!) likely by midweek, but colder weather (maybe snow?!) on the horizon
UPDATE 8:45 PM, 1/29: No big changes to what I have below. Just three quick points. (1) 70 degrees may not be out of the question for Roanoke and points south and east on Tuesday and Wednesday. 60s look likely just about everywhere on one or both of those days below 3,000 feet in elevation. (2) Note Sunday night’s 8-14-day Climate Prediction Center temperature map (linked here) and a return to blue colors, indication an enhanced chance of BELOW normal temperatures during that timeframe (Feb. 6-12). (3) Yes, there is some potential for moisture and cold air to mingle by late in the weekend and early next week. There are way too many details in flux to say much more than that now. Let’s see how this looks at midweek before getting into any kind of “potential winter storm” mindset. For now, let’s just say colder weather looks very likely to set in after this week’s warmup, and that fact by itself increases snow potential looking down the road. END UPDATE
After a brief cold front-induced break Sunday and Monday (and not a huge on at that — Roanoke may not get below 30 and see highs in the low 50s, while 40s highs/20s lows will be about the coldest it gets anywhere in Southwest Virginia) — the mild winter weather will return in full force for Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the 60s possible in much of the region. Some showers and a new cold front will interrupt the warmup once again by late week. so again, we will likely be held short of the 70-degree mark. Beyond this week, the core of the warm air underneath high pressure appears likely to shift to the western United States. This is significant for us because, being east of the warm high and its clockwise circulation, we will be more in line for some deeper shots of cold air. This is referred to as the positive phase of the Pacific-North American pattern, when high pressure dominates near the West Coast and the jet stream dips southward in the East. Combined with a shift in the Arctic Oscillation from a strongly positive pattern to somewhat negative, which will allow more cold air to migrate southward away from the North Pole, the potential will be there for some pretty stiff bouts of cold air perhaps as early as next weekend. Whether any of this cold air interacts with moisture remains to be seen. Some forecast models show high pressure in the Northeast nosing cold air southward along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians next weekend just as mositure arrives, a familiar “cold-air damming” setup that could yield ice or snow if it comes to fruition. Whether it will or not is doubtful from this range, but it does reflect the growing possibility that cold air will be able to slide father south into the East than we’ve seen most of this winter. The North Atlantic Oscillation, however, remains in its positive phase, reflecting the lack of high pressure near Greenland to obstruct the jet stream, and that means these cold air shots will not get locked in for weeks, but will move out rather quickly. They may get more quickly replaced, however, because of the high pressure building in the West.
This does not reflect a really dramatic pattern change to a winter wonderland that so many snow fans have sought, but more of a gradual drift toward something looking more “normal” for winter as we move into February.
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If someone did not know the details behind the maps, and knew very little about American weather, he or she might have followed the CPC multi-day maps over the last few weeks and surmised, “yeah, colder air will be invading from Florida!!” LOL LOL
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 28, 2012 @ 11:49 pm
DGEX has a full blown Nor’easter north of I-64, widespread 12-18 inches.
To be honest I’m beginning to think this could be another near miss scenario again
Comment by Ice storm lover — January 29, 2012 @ 7:13 am
Doug, to answer you from the previous thread. It was the last day of the winter turkey season. Did not see any or anything that would eat the turkeys either……coyotes. It was a nice and very frosty 23 to be out early and there was almost no wind until 8:10am. By 8:30 it was very windy and I came home. This morning, it is a slightly frosty 18.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — January 29, 2012 @ 7:22 am
Chilly morning up here on the ridge. It is 20 F but thank goodness there isn’t a breeze. Just bright blue skies as the sun is coming up. The fire in the woodstove went out overnight so it is chilly inside too (62F). But the fire is now blazing in the stove. Time to do breakfast.
Kevin, I loved your “hype” from last night. I don’t want that much – just a little bit.
Comment by Doppler Carol — January 29, 2012 @ 7:56 am
I just couldn’t wait until Thursday. I had to watch Groundhog Day last night, but unfortunately Phil did not help me to forecast the rest of this winter. Stupid rodent.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — January 29, 2012 @ 8:39 am
KM and Capt Quags, thanks for the encouraging words concerning the ski trip. The long range forecasts do look encouraging. Every once in awhile I have to go back to a line uttered by one of my favorite movie charcters, Oddball from Kelly’s Heroes, when he said, “Enough of them negative waves. Have a little faith”. Think that snow will be there and it will be there.
Snowshoe definitely does have an amazing difference in weather and it also interesting how close it is to us. I remember flying up there many times and it was only a short jump over the mountains from ROA. On a clear day you could make out their “Airport” which was actually just a strip mine carved out in the early 80s from a couple thousand feet up and just a little north of ROA.
Quags I’d like to catch up with you about your flying, if you don’t mind, drop me an email when you get a chance at: winterstormwatch@gmail.com . I picked up my private license at ROA in 1989 and then took it up another notch and graduated from ERAU back in the early 90s with a multi-engine commercial ticket. I was burned out on flying by that point and basically hung up my headsets in the mid-90s. I wonder if we might know some of the same people. Sometimes as I sit at my desk I really miss being up there. This usually only happens on a severe clear day. Those days when the wind is blowing 40 MPH+, there are thunderstorms, severe wx, and icing, I find myself enjoying being on solid ground.
Next time you are in this neighborhood, you’ll have to let me know. My wife and I live about 5 minutes from the Barboursville Vineyards.
Thanks!
Comment by John from Ruckersville — January 29, 2012 @ 8:50 am
John…next time we are up that way, I’ll give a 2 minute warning of our arrival. I remember back in my airline flying days (Piedmont & Useless Air aka USAir)either going north into Pittsburgh or going west out of DC you would fly right over Snowshoe a clear day. Hardly go over WV anymore. But it was fun nonetheless. Snowshoe is right over the South Arrival route going into PIT & we used that as our 15-20 minutes to the gate landmark. The good ol’ days. Like I keep saying to myself, someday I need to write all my sky adventure down on paper and make a book out of it. I wonder if anyone would buy it?
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — January 29, 2012 @ 9:45 am
Hey, Regional President, thanks for replying about your attempt to bag a turkey. So sorry. Do you ever go hunting for them right after a rainstorm? We used to have turkeys in this neighborhood, but now that there are a lot more homes … and dogs … I hardly ever see them nor even hear them anymore. But I began to notice that they would come out after a rain. Anybody else have anything to offer about that? One can tell that things are very quiet locally with the weather …. we are writing about flying, hunting, and turkeys. That’s fine with me … I enjoy most of the divergent stuff, too. GREat visibility again this morning.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 29, 2012 @ 10:49 am
As a result of a google search, I found out that the L.A. Times did a story about Punx. Phil last year. And guess what? Phil was right about last winter, at least for SW Virginia!!! He did not see his shadow on 2-2-11, which meant that winter was over. We were suffering through a tough winter for both snow lovers (who wanted a lot more than the roughly 10 inches that ROA got) and people like me who don’t like a cold winter. But soon after his prediction, things started warming up big time around here, causing February to finish at a +4, after a very cold December and a coolish January.
The LA article also reported that PETA protested the use of Phil, claiming he should be put in an animal sanctuary and replaced with an “animatronic groundhog replica.” PETA …. a lost cause as far as I am concerned. When they first came into the public eye several decades ago, I had hopes that they were going to be another group that would act like another SPCA. Nope. Sometimes I agree with what they are doing, but often I think they just act like a bunch of loons.
I am already on record as predicting Phil’s prediction on early Thursday morning. He will see his shadow ….. no early end of winter. But it will mean something a bit different this year. More on Wednesday.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 29, 2012 @ 12:12 pm
Could have been for several reasons. Depends a lot on the time of year. And whether the sun had popped out. They could have holed up during the rain[not normally], they could be drying their feather, or taking advantage of the insects that show up after a rain. I don’t think they know why they do anything.
Comment by wdbrand — January 29, 2012 @ 1:32 pm
URGENT!!!
WINTER WEATHER BULLETIN FROM THE NEWS CHANNEL 988 WEATHER DESK!!!
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEATHER MODELS NOW SHOW A POSSIBLE MAJOR EASTERN US WINTER STORM EVENT FOR FEBRUARY 5-8 TIME FRAME AND POSSIBLY BEYOND!!!
Time for yours truly to do a flip-flop mea-culpa & retract my “no snow for the next 2 weeks” statement. Snow Lovers, in the words of Elvis, it is now or never! So get up & start the Snow Dance!
Professor Griggs, you may be right about Mr. Punxsutawney. He may not see his shadow if the models come true.
Read my next post. Sunday’s 12Z Euro is starting to come out. Will explain more shortly.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — January 29, 2012 @ 1:33 pm
Hey Captain, Back in the early days of my college career I had an United Airlines Stewardess application sitting on my desk – just in case I flunked out of college. But I made it through 4 years of college and became the teacher. (At that point I had never flown before.)
Yep, slow day on the weather blog that we are talking about planes and flying.
Comment by Doppler Carol — January 29, 2012 @ 1:37 pm
Barboursville Vineyard – been there and I am a fan of their Phileo (dessert wine). I called it my “porch wine”. I am always on the lookout for it down here.
Went to get a Sunday paper this morning and saw at least 25 turkeys in a field not 30 feet from the road. About 2 years ago I was driving home and a turkey flew into my windshield. I stopped and looked and looked but never found the turkey.
Comment by Doppler Carol — January 29, 2012 @ 1:45 pm
Didn’t actually look at the model, but it appears, from the wunderground maps, that the 12z Euro has two storms next weekend: one on Friday and one on Sunday. Friday’s has snow in PA and NY and Sunday’s has some snow in our area.
Comment by Roa10 — January 29, 2012 @ 1:57 pm
Doug, many kinds of wildlife become very active right after it has rained for a while. Heavy rain stops most activity and when the rain stops, it’s time to go find food again. You have observed just that.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — January 29, 2012 @ 2:32 pm
When it’s warm here, you know it has to be cold somewhere else.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/harshest-cold-spell-in-years-f/60867
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — January 29, 2012 @ 2:37 pm
D. Carol: There are two PWS stations listed on the wunderground weather site for Check, one for Check and one for Terrys Fork. Which one are you the closest to. They show a map with each station and location.
Comment by wdbrand — January 29, 2012 @ 2:38 pm
wdbrand – I went to wunderground and looked at the two sites. I am closer to “41″. That one is just down the hill from the Doppler (by a couple hundred feet) and I am about 2 miles from there – they are actually closer to the big white ball than me so we can get them to run over and give the Doppler a kick when it is not working correctly. The other one “40″ is more in the area that I would call Terrys Fork and is about 4 miles from me.
At least 41 and I are on the same side of the ridge and just a few different in elevation – about 6 feet to be exact. Now I can check that site and have an idea how close my weather station is to theirs. It would also give you folks an idea of what the temps etc are right at the Doppler.
Thanks for sharing the info with me.
Comment by Doppler Carol — January 29, 2012 @ 3:46 pm
Quags Sunday PM extended forecast update (long version):
My apologies for getting the Snow Lovers hopes up. The Sunday 12Z models are now beginning to show a more favorable colder & wintery pattern to develop over the eastern US. It’s not a certainty, but much greater possibilities. Will this finally be the time that we get some real winter weather or will this become another bust like we have seen so far this season? I am starting to re-think what I said about winter being over & that there would be no snow for the next 2 weeks. Do I have enough faith to believe that February could turn out to be more winter like compared to what we have seen so far? That remains to be seen.
So Quags, what’s up with all the excitement? All of the Sunday 12Z models (Euro/GFS/CMC) are trending to the above mentioned change. To begin with my analysis, the European Weekly Model has consistently depicted a warmer pattern which has been what we have seen so far this winter. It has now flip-flopped for the first time this season & shows a more gradual prolonged cold pattern evolving for more than just a day or 2 for the Eastern US. Not below normal Arctic cold, but normal February cold. This confirms what Kevin refers to above.
Sunday’s 12Z model runs combined depict 3 events to watch. #1 is Feb. 2-4, a Midwestern/Ohio Valley system bringing rain/snow for that region & rain for the east coast including VA. This first event was much stronger & faster in the previous runs but still goes west of us, leaving us in the warmer air. #1 event sets up #2. After the first event pulls away to the north, it will pull in colder air behind it just in time for #2 to form. The 2nd event for Feb. 5-6 is setting up to be a weak, disorganized Miller “B” type event. #2 has a better chance than #1 of bringing wintery precipitation to the Mid Atlantic if conditions are right, that is if the cold air remains in place behind event #1. Kevin eludes to a possible cold air damming (CAD)scenario above & this may actually occur with event #2. Event #2 is looking more & more to be a possible ice/snow event. After event #2 clears out, several days of colder weather will prevail with a NW flow. Sunday’s 12z Euro also hints at a large Arctic Air Mass trying to move southward into the Great Lakes & Northeast. If this Euro solution holds with the Arctic Air Mass, then event #3 could…I SAY COULD happen for a colder/stormier pattern to develop for Feb. 11-12 & perhaps beyond. Event #3 has the best chance in becoming a potential MAJOR winter weather event around Feb. 10-13. Why?
By then, colder air may be in place over the east, a new Polar Vortex could develop over Eastern Canada, AO goes negative, NAO inches to a more neutral/negative reading & the Southern Pacific jetstream may finally come alive around Feb 6-7 along the California Coast that could signal a possible phasing of the northern & southern jetstreams.
Sunday 12Z Euro loop from PSU weather e-wall:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html
Sunday 12Z GFS from PSU:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_12z/mrfloop2.html
The problem with the 12Z GFS run is that it takes the Feb. 5-6 event way southeast of the Mid-Atlantic & out to sea.
The Sunday 12Z CMC Canadian Model is more in line with previous Euro model runs keeping a huge Midwestern/Ohio Valley low to our west & not bringing event #2 to the table but confirms a possible CAD scenario.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html
HOWEVER, there is no Greenland Block (- NAO) showing up anywhere until after Feb. 8 & that’s the caveat. Again, it’s way too soon to see if this comes out. Just remember that Mother Nature is still in charge & she is fickle. The pattern is finally changing. Question is, will this rapid model shift hold or do we have to once again question overall model reliability & watch the models cry wolf again?
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — January 29, 2012 @ 3:51 pm
Doppler Carol, you’ll love this.
As one of my favorite Flight Attendants of all time used to say to me, keep those applications handy & updated cause you never know when those hard times will hit ya! Funny thing, she was Miss Texas in 1985, flunked out of College, came to that Airline I used to fly for as a Flight Attendant & now works for United. Karma is a wonderful thing
I’m staring at a bottle of Phileo right now. I’m tempted to pull the cork as I speak & have a glass. 2 more good “Porch” wines I recommend are found right down the road from you. First is Chateau Morrisette’s “Our Dog Blue” & my fave, Villa Appalachia’s “Simpatico.” Good to enjoy in any weather!
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — January 29, 2012 @ 4:11 pm
Quagmire – I would offer you my branch, but it broke and came crashing down early this morning here in Blacksburg. I do understand your flip flopping though. Seeing you go from “pattern change”, to “winter is over” , to “pattern change” again, is what makes this blog so great. All of us model hugging wishcasters will eagerly await your next proclamation to see if winter returns or not. You keep us hopeful, if nothing else.
Comment by Mike — January 29, 2012 @ 4:17 pm
To basically agree with what Quags posted above, the CPC multi-day forecasts show some big changes. No, there are no purples or dark blues over Virginia, but there is a light blue on the 8-14 day. That color may have been there yesterday, too, but anyway, the links will be in a separate comment. The movement of the warm air to the western half of “CONUS” is very apparent, especially on the 14-day. And the entire East Coast is expected to be colder than normal. Anyone going to Florida in 10 days and wanting warm temps may be in for a very rude surprise. But the really big change on the 8-14 day outlook is what will happen in Alaska. It goes from being unbelievably cold to warmer than normal!! That probably spells great news for folks who want cold weather here
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 29, 2012 @ 4:32 pm
Here are the links: today’s 6-10 day map from CPC: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
And the 8-14 (Feb. 6-12) day: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php WARNING! As Kevin Gibb Myatt has advised us in the past, today’s map is strictly computer-generated. Sometimes the computer(s) get carried away with a trend, or have a bad bit (pun intended) to eat. But once in a while I claim they end up being more accurate than what the human-adjusted Monday maps show. Anyway, check these same links tomorrow afternoon as well as today and see what they show.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 29, 2012 @ 4:39 pm
Haven’t had a chance to look at models today, but definitely agree with idea of normal February cold … maybe even a hint below normal … settling in after this mild week. Will look at winter precip chances later this evening.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 29, 2012 @ 4:47 pm
In reply to Rick of Wytheville’s 2:37 comment, and the stuff in that article is amazing, thanks for posting. I looked up what the weather was like here in SW Virginia for the first two weeks of January 2000. The accuweather article that Rick posted mentioned that the final two days of 1999 were incredibly cold in Fairbanks, AK. Well, we had an amazing run of VERY mild temps in Roanoke from the 1st through the 13th. High on 1-3-00 was 71, 69 on the 2nd, 66 on the 4th. Following a short cooldown for two days (5th & 6th), temps skyrocketed once again. 82 on 10th, 58 on both the 11th and 12th, 65 on the 13th. Two more cold days, then one more warm one on the 16th (57*). What happened after that, you ask?? Fasten your seat belts, snow lovers, because we had 17 consecutive days colder than normal, with 5 of them at least ten degrees colder than normal and a bunch 8 or 9 degrees colder than normal!!!
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 29, 2012 @ 4:49 pm
Oops, important typo in the previous comment. I try to catch all my typos by reading through before entering CAPTCHA, but this one escaped me. The high on Jan. 10, 2000 was 62 degrees, not 82.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 29, 2012 @ 4:51 pm
One more epilogue to my comments at 4:49 and 4:51. What happened in the rest of February 2000? WARM!! Despite the fact that the first two days averaged 7 degrees colder than norm, the month as a whole was a toasty 4.2 degrees above normal. And it was yet again another dry Feb., too …… only 1.69 inches in ROA. And March 2000 was ALSO very warm, a +4.5. So that 17-day streak mostly in late January 2000 was a classic case of “one-and-done” for cold snaps that winter. Without checking it, I bet the NAO and/or the AO went very negative for a while and then retreated back to positive territory.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 29, 2012 @ 4:57 pm
A beautiful and breezy day here in the far southwest. Temps have made it to the low 40′s but last night dropped to 15 degrees. Love the normal feel of it and the wood stove is cranking this pm. If we can get through this week’s 60′s just maybe the snow gods will shine on us at least once this winter. Talked to a friend this week in Carroll Co who owns a peach orchard and they are really worried that the warm weather might continue and risk the fruit.
Comment by Michael Hoback — January 29, 2012 @ 4:58 pm
Back from another Snowshoe trip. We had some nice snow showers early Saturday afternoon that covered everything nicely. Other than that, slightly breezy with off and on sun..more sun today than yesterday. Heading back up Thursday night or Friday…hoping for a better shot at some snow. As for here in Goodview, more of the same…no winter
Comment by Brian — January 29, 2012 @ 5:07 pm
Thanks D. Carol. Also, being on the same side of a ridge makes a big difference. Should have asked that question. Folks, if you want to know what it’s doing at Doppler Carols, then go to wunderground.com. Pull up PWS’s. Look for station APRSWXNET,Check Va., Check Va. Also listed as MD8687.
Comment by wdbrand — January 29, 2012 @ 5:53 pm
MH, you hit the nail on the head with that post. One of the dangers of a warm winter til mid/late Feb. Stuff is already trying to pop out here on da Knob where there’s any kind of mulch on it. Mostly spring flowers. But, a shhort stretch of mild weather would be all it took to fool trees that knows it’s getting close to time to do their thing, especially without the cold that normally holds them in check. Way too early folks.
Comment by wdbrand — January 29, 2012 @ 6:05 pm
A good example of this was 5/8 years ago [Kevin????] when it dropped to the mid/upper 20′s for what I think was 4 nights running. Killed 1,000′s of fruit trees here. Poplars were leafed out and killed the leaves dead and dying. When did this happen? Try the end of April.
Comment by wdbrand — January 29, 2012 @ 6:14 pm
High today 44,back down to 36 now.Hope everyone has a good week ahead!
Comment by Mike in Marshall — January 29, 2012 @ 6:21 pm
Wd: 2007. Super warm March, super cold first 3 weeks of April. Just about decimated Virginia’s fruit crop.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 29, 2012 @ 6:55 pm
99-2000 is a pretty strong analog for this winter. La Nina, strong Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation positive phases most of the winter. As noted earlier, there was a 2-week wintry period in mid to late January and that was just about it. Roanoke/Blacksburg got a light snow and 2 moderate snows (4ish inches) plus barely missed a noreaster that buried Lynchburg and eastward.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 29, 2012 @ 7:05 pm
Thanks Kevin. We talked about this a year or so ago.
Comment by wdbrand — January 29, 2012 @ 7:09 pm
KM-Are you referencing the Jan. 2000 storm that dropped 2′ plus on Raleigh, NC? If so, that thing was completely unforecasted! Raleigh was expecting maybe an inch or so, and then sometime about midnight white hell was unleashed! Incredible storm for the piedmont region of VA/NC.
Comment by Mike — January 29, 2012 @ 7:25 pm
That’s the one, Mike. Forecasters expected the low to blow up later and farther north/possibly out to sea with second shortwave, but instead, first disturbance fired the storm off SC coast. Forecast changed quickly from partly cloudy to big snow totals east of here. Snow line cut off hard at Bedford and Lexington. 9 hours of virga on radar over us in very dry air.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 29, 2012 @ 7:30 pm
Kevin,was on WJLA-7 Web site reading Think this is a weird January,take a look at the last 6.Said he came upon a great article by Guess Who? Thats right Kevin Myatt down in Roanoke Va.He said be sure and check it out.Now your famous in D.C. Too!
Comment by Mike in Marshall — January 29, 2012 @ 7:32 pm
Kevin, I lived in Lynchburg at the time Jan 2000. We had 15 inches of snow, and I came back to visit family here in the NRV and it went from 15 inches in Lynchburg to 1 inch in Bedford. It was Crazy.
Comment by UnLost — January 29, 2012 @ 7:55 pm
I remember that storm too Kevin, I was living in Lynchburg at the time, total surprise for the city. Lynchburg was basically shut down for a day. The hardest I ever seen it snow that morning in Jan. 2000.
Comment by Jeff W. — January 29, 2012 @ 8:20 pm
Thanks for the cute chuckle about flight attendants, Captain. Yes, I have frequented the Chateau. I like the Sweet Mt. Laurel and the Red Mt. Laurel and then their dessert wine is the Frosty Dog. I think I have had the Simpatico but it doesn’t stand out in my mind like the Phileo. When you do open that bottle drink a glass for me, please.
Yes, Mike in Marshall, I know your area having lived at one time in Leesburg, Brandy Station and Fredericksburg. Loved Doug Hill and the weather on WJLA-7,
It is breezy up here on the ridge this evening and the temp is now 33F with a wind chill of 27.9F. Will try to stay awake to keep the fire going in the woodstove.
Michael Hoback – we just pruned our grapes and fruit trees this weekend. But my lilacs and hydrangea are getting small buds on them. Of course the daffodils are up out of the ground too. I know that it has to turn colder because it always does when things start budding out. A little concerned about this early budding. Our chickens are even molting now.
wdbrand – thanks again for that link to wunderground. Gives me two new people to meet in the neighborhood.
Comment by Doppler Carol — January 29, 2012 @ 8:30 pm
Since some of you are talking about early buds, I have seen a few forsythia that face S or SW showing some color down in Roanoke city, and somebody’s tree had early buds that looked like all they needed was 3 to 5 more sunny warm days and they will pop out completely. I cannot think of the name of it, but might recognize it if somebody mentioned a few possibilities. I think it had sort of a grey bark and very contorted branches. About the size of a small dogwood, but definitely not a dogwood. Buds were an off-green on the outside. I have had my forsythia pop out in full bloom a couple of times (and I think that 2000 was one of those times) in late February, but about March 10 is about the norm here. I am glad that my forsythia are still “hibernatin’.” LOL They don’t get much sun until later in winter, when the sun gets higher.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 29, 2012 @ 8:56 pm
Jan. 25, 2000, is the major East Coast snowstorm we have been discussing, dumping 2 feet on Raleigh, 6-12-plus along/east of the U.S. 29 corridor (Danville/Lynchburg/Charlottesville and east).
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/Newsletter/Fall%202006/Climatology_of_Heavy_Snow_files/Storm_Total_Maps/1_25_00color.gif
5 days later the Roanoke/Blacksburg got some of that back with 4-6 inches of snow from an overrunning event while it was more ice/snow mix Lynchburg and east.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/Newsletter/Fall%202006/Climatology_of_Heavy_Snow_files/Storm_Total_Maps/1_31_00color.gif
6 days before was probably the most widespread Alberta clipper snow I’ve seen since I’ve been here, with lots of 4-plus reports.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/Newsletter/Fall%202006/Climatology_of_Heavy_Snow_files/Storm_Total_Maps/jan1900color.jpg
All this happened in a very short window of cold amid a very mild winter with very similar atmospheric patterns as this one. Not saying the same thing will definitely happen again in this relatively cold February stretch ahead (for one thing, it doesn’t look quite as cold, yet, with no Greenland blocking as happened in late January 2000), but it shows what CAN happen with even a relatively small wintry window.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 29, 2012 @ 9:00 pm
Added an update to top the blog tonight, not a new entry yet, since little has changed from my first entry. Would like to keep this discussion going, too.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 29, 2012 @ 9:02 pm
Mike in Marshall: Glad you saw that. Meteorologist Alex Liggitt with WJLA in DC wrote me a nice email. Social media like Twitter really connects various weather professionals now in ways that didn’t used to exist.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 29, 2012 @ 9:45 pm
Checking in early tonight … probably won’t get any new comments approved til morning. But make them anyway and they’ll be up on Monday.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 29, 2012 @ 10:11 pm
I’m going to be in Raleigh on Saturday and I’m flying to California on Sunday, so it would only make sense for it to finally snow then.
Comment by Brandon R. — January 29, 2012 @ 10:31 pm
Oops, I meant to comment earlier. wd, I agree with you completely about stuff comin’ out early. Sometimes a very early spring, such as the one we had in 2000, was a case of no harm, no foul, because both March and April that year had no cold snaps. A quick look at the data from RRA in April 2000 showed the lowest temp at 33*. I guess some other cooler spots might have had some frost damage, but certainly it was slight compared with what happened in April 2007. That was probably once-in-a-lifetime event. Reason I say that was my two sisters and Nancy and I visited Valhalla Vineyard (SW Roanoke County, very close to me) in May of that year (Mother’s Day weekend, and it was in the low 80s!!), and they lost their entire peach and apple crop (or if it wasn’t them, it was a nearby neighbor), and they lost the first blooming of their grapes (lady owner said they have 3 bloomings per year). They had only owned the place for roughly 10 years, but the guy/family they bought it from had detailed weather records going back to roughly 1950, and the worst freeze damage was not as bad as ’07.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 29, 2012 @ 10:55 pm
Kevin,
Now all of us “jones’in” for some snow have something to follow this week. I always love your tempered predictions when asked to futurecast, so……..Now that forecasted temps will be closer to/below normal in mid Feb., what are your thoughts (your over/under precentages) on Roanoke ending up with the average Feb. snow total (9″?)?
Love the blog and the cast of ever evolving characters on here. Keep up the good work………your one in a minion!
Comment by Todd in SWcity — January 29, 2012 @ 10:56 pm
I watched the last hour of coverage of the PGA event in the San Diego area today, and a change in weather conditions almost had a big role in determining the winner. On the 2nd playoff hole, Commentator Peter Kostis noted before they hit their shots on the par 3 that the wind (which had been blowing almost 15 mph into the players’ faces during the regulation holes) had calmed down to almost nothing. He commented ahead of time that Snedeker (who won the playoff on that hole, BTW) had hit a 6-iron a few feet past the hole about 90 minutes earlier, and if he hit a full 6 again, it would probably go over the green. Well, it did. Opponent put his tee shot on the green, and after the tee shots had the advantage. But Snedeker hit a pretty good recovery, and Kyle Stanley hit a poor approach putt. Then Sned drained his putt, Stanley missed, and that was that. I could say more, but this ain’t a golf blog. Tough …. I changed my mind. Stanley did something to anger the golf gods. He got what I thought was a terrible break on the 18th green, costing him 2 shots, and Snedeker got a very lucky break on the 2nd playoff hole, which I just described.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 29, 2012 @ 11:05 pm
How come does TWC shows it being back in the 50s by Feb 6th if the map is hinting at blue colors around that time frame?
Comment by Mike — January 29, 2012 @ 11:19 pm
Clarification to my 10:55 comment. When I typed “once-in-a-lifetime” event, I was talking about how devastating and extensive the damage was, not that an April (or even a late March) freeze would be once in a lifetime. Did anyone else here lose a crop that year? I was wondering about longtime effects. I guess some trees might have been completely killed by that event. But those that survived and simply lost that year’s bloom, how did they do the following year? My dad (who was a terrific gardener) used to say that if a plant lost a bloom or crop ripening (although it might have been because of an infestation or drought rather than a frost/freeze) one year, then the next year’s crop would almost certainly be terrific, because the plant would put its energy into the root system earlier than other years.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 30, 2012 @ 12:05 am
I found the following on weather.com, which is the website of The Weather Channel. Flu report has been updated through Jan. 21. Three states have joined Colorado in the “Regional” level of flu activity, which is just below “Widespread.” The 3 states are: Missouri, Kentucky, and .. oh-oh .. Virginia!! Nurse Snow, have you noticed any uptick in the number of flu cases? It could be that one or two of the metropolitan areas are where the trouble is, not so much our corner of the state. What might be a big help on that front is some really cold weather. I will try to monitor that report, and see what happens in the relationship between the two. The January 28th and February 4th reports are almost certain to show no improvement, with a lack of cold temps.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 30, 2012 @ 12:16 am
Spent the weekend in Virginia Beach, and saw some robins there…the weather is definitely a bit twisted around this year. We’ll see how it goes the rest of the winter though.
Comment by Other John — January 30, 2012 @ 12:16 am
This discussion is fantastic! I love learning about these older snowstorms that have been hits or near-misses. And it is about time this winter starts to wake up! Weather is simply amazing in all aspects, and I marvel at its power frequently even if the pattern isn’t conducive to a snow-lover.
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — January 30, 2012 @ 2:17 am
Mike: The first possible answers to your question are that TWC is wrong, or the CPC is wrong.
Beyond that, keep in mind that the CPC temperature map is probability based, and an area starts getting into a color shade when there is more than a 1/3 chance of that particular temperature direction. Our color is light blue, so that is only around a 40 percent of below normal temps and 60 percent chance of normal or above.
Also, a couple of days in the 50s would not necessarily mean that the average for a weeklong period couldn’t be colder.
Any winter storms that develop — even ones that don’t affect us — can push the temperature colder by adding snowpack and pulling cold winds down from Canada.
Much is in flux, though the trend to colder weather — at least near-normal cold — appears to be solid.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 30, 2012 @ 8:54 am
Morning GFS runs and Euro runs don’t build a strong enough cold air-damming high in this weekend for wintry precipitation in our area. That’s not necessarily the final word.
I picked out Feb. 10-24 as possible 2-week timeframe for wintry precipitation events, and I may stick to that. There is a system around Feb. 10-11 on many models that seems to have more of a chance, to me, than the Feb. 5-6 system does.
If this does turn into a mostly “normal” cold period as I expect, don’t be surprised to see a mild day or two between cold shots. The order will be reversed — instead of cold shots breaking up a mild period, we may have mild shots breaking up a cold period. That’s kinda what I expect, but think an even colder period for a week or two remains a possibility.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 30, 2012 @ 8:56 am
Todd: At this point, I would be surprised if we end up with as much as 9 inches in Roanoke, not just for February but for the season. I do think it’s probable we won’t set the record for lowest seasonal snow total (which would require 1.9 inches, counting sleet, through February, March and April). I’m guessing we get one 3-5 inch type snow and another 1-2-inch type snow. Strong chance one or both are mixed with sleet or ice.
Doubting strongly that this pattern can deliver a large snow, even a 6-12-incher across the region, let alone a big’un (12-plus).
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 30, 2012 @ 9:46 am
Roanoke’s record high temperature for Jan. 31 is only 68, set in 1974 and 1916 … that’s very reachable on Tuesday. 74 on Feb. 1, set in 1989, probably stands on Wednesday.
Blacksburg’s Jan. 31 record high of 63 — set just last winter! (yes, in the middle of what was overall a cold period from December to early February — may also be in jeopardy on Tuesday. The Feb. 1 record high, however, of 73 set in 2002 (another winter similar to this one) will likely not be challenged.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 30, 2012 @ 10:01 am
FLU…it should be a 4 letter word! I have seen reports that Virginia is expected to peak for flu towards the end of Feburary and beginning of March. If that is the case, this cold wether coming in will be beneficial. It is proven that the colder winters tend to kill off viruses, and in warmer scenarios, you will end up with more illness. My medical advice for the day: Get plenty of Vitamin D. Proven to help shorten the length of viral illnesses, including colds and flu.
My 3yr old son asked me this morning, “mommy, when will it snow? I want to build a snowman.” How I wish I had a good answer for him. From what I have read, we could possibly start seeing something soon which will make me very happy!
Talking about wines, Chateau Morissette’s Sweet Mountain Laurel is one my favorites. My husband likes Our Dog Blue.
Comment by Shanon — January 30, 2012 @ 10:35 am
I had some personal business up near Hollins U. and the Plantation Rd./Williamson Road corner this morning, and I got to witness for myself how much colder that neighborhood can be. It was 31 when I left my house about 7:15, 32 in SW side of Roanoke city, but 28* throughout that neighborhood!! Even though it was 30+ minutes later and the sun had come up. Even when I left the area about 8:40 AM, it was still 28 degrees!! Yet according to wunderground website, the low at RRA was only 34* (is that correct??). Anyway, this is a great example of how the morning temps at Roanoke airport can be quite a few degrees higher than neighborhoods within 2 miles.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 30, 2012 @ 10:39 am
OK, thanks to wd, I am going to check on Check!! Doppler Gal, according to wunderground, the temp at the site very close to you was 39* at 10:10 AM. Sound about right? It is 41.5* here now, FYI. Gorgeous looking day.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 30, 2012 @ 10:43 am
WOW, Nurse Shanon, thanks for the tip about getting more Vitamin D!! I will probably pass that along to some of my fellow postal employees. Believe it or not, even though we letter carriers are out in the public most of the day, it is our clerks who are much more exposed to folks who have colds or flu.
OK, Shanon, as a thank you, here is some pictorial candy for you and the ‘leventy-’leven Snow (and Cold Weather) Lovers on this blog. I will post the links to the Arctic Oscillation pages in a separate comment, because I am worried about the comment-gulping CAPTCHA Code. My dad used to use an expression, “Read ‘em and weep,” when there was some bad news in a printed article. Well, for most of you, it might be a case of “Read ‘em and exult.”
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 30, 2012 @ 10:52 am
The AO observed and GFS outlooks page, which I claim has been much more accurate this winter (so far) in predicting what will happen in the upcoming two weeks than the ensemble models. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml Don’t all those negative February numbers on the 10-day and 14-day look enticing?!?!
The link for the ensembles: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml Still more candy, early for Valentine’s Day.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 30, 2012 @ 10:58 am
At 10:13 AM, it was 47.8 here. Verified by one other reading in a different place. I always look at the second one to verify since my station doesn’t have the solar shield on it and reads high sometimes in full sun.
Comment by wdbrand — January 30, 2012 @ 11:14 am
Unfortunately for most of you, the outlook for the NAO continues to be disappointing, if not depressing. No link. If that bad boy would only go substantially negative, even if for only 10 days while the AO is also negative (and possibly along with a positive PNA), that would really increase the chances for a real snowstorm or two in this region. I bet something along those lines is what happened in 1960 and a couple of other years when late winter turned very white and frozen after a tame start.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 30, 2012 @ 11:16 am
To Doug Griggs re PETA. Recommend you check out their website nowadays. I used to think they were extreme, but have changed 360.
Comment by Aunt Kitty — January 30, 2012 @ 11:28 am
Doug, I compared my temps to the Doppler Wunderground site this morning and I was actually 3 degrees cooler. Yes, it is a gorgeous day out there – blue skies, bright sun and a slight breeze. I need to get out there and soak up some Vitamin D.
Comment by Doppler Carol — January 30, 2012 @ 11:38 am
Something to keep in mind about AO/NAO … research has found a .8 correlation between the two. That basically means that 80 percent of the time the AO goes negative, the NAO will too, eventually. We’ll see if this is the 80 percent or the 20 percent.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 30, 2012 @ 11:47 am
Doug, Aunt Kitty, this is a civilized forum. Using four letter words such as PETA may not be a good idea.
Comment by Trevar — January 30, 2012 @ 11:56 am
Update: get off the snow bandwagon for this weekend.
Get on the snow bandwagon for next weekend. (Feb. 10-11)
Comment by Ice storm lover — January 30, 2012 @ 12:04 pm
Well let’s see Aunt Kitty, if they have changed 360*, then they have come full circle and are right back where they’ve always been. If you want to donate to a bunch of nuts, have at it. Anything they ever put in writing is for one reason: To tug at the heart strings of folks that don’t know any different. The pretty people on the left coast are in cohoots up to their eyeballs. They have brainwashed more young people than any other group that I can think of. This org has made millionaires out of the directors. They were nuts yesterday, they are nuts today and they will be nuts tomorrow. But!!! they are smart nuts. They can fleece the gullible people out of hundreds of millions each year. Why haven’t they been shut down for fraud? Ask your representative that question and see if you get an answer. PETA is a good catchy phrase. “People Eating Tasty Animals”
Comment by wdbrand — January 30, 2012 @ 12:46 pm
Ok, cutting off the PETA discussion as of now, before we get too political here. (Besides that is my real Aunt Kitty, my wife’s aunt. Let’s be nice.)
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 30, 2012 @ 12:53 pm
Ice storm lover, that’s more or less what I said in one of my morning comments.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 30, 2012 @ 1:15 pm
Am I reading the right blog? Or is this a multi forum board?
Comment by Mark in Pulaski — January 30, 2012 @ 1:32 pm
As far as temps and trees, a temp of -10*F will kill the bud. Buds can stand up to 24*. Blooms can’t stand lower than 27*. It’s mighty hard for a home grower to bypass these conditions since they simply aren’t equipped to handle it. And 27* is always possible in this area thru April, and even early May.
Comment by wdbrand — January 30, 2012 @ 2:01 pm
Wow, Kevin, I apologize big time for being the first one to mention PETA. Going to the 180 degrees vs. the 360 degrees, however, that has been a pet peeve of mine on the golf course with some golfers and even some tv analysts for a long time. Once in a great while, a putt will go around the edge of the cup and end up on the same side of the cup as the golfer. I basically consider it very unlucky, whether it happens to me, another person in my group, or even an opponent. Well, it changed directions 180 degrees, not 360. But everyone (it seems) who refers to numbers always seem to call it “a 360.” Now I hope I don’t start a discussion of golf. Shame on me …. that’s my 2nd golf comment in the last 24 hours.
And thanks, Kevin, for mentioning the 80% chance that the NAO will eventually go negative, also. It is certainly overdue. When it does and then we have both oscillations negative at same time, perhaps one of you cold weather lovers will use a link to a youtube video of the Battle Hymn of the Republic and use slightly different words than I used last February.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 30, 2012 @ 2:33 pm
And my heart soared when I saw the comment by “Aunt Kitty.” I will check out their website, BTW, AK. Thanks. I had an Aunt Kitty back in Greater Boston who was a dear soul (she was the sister of my maternal grandfather, and therefore she was my great aunt, and that she certainly was!!). Like my dad, she enjoyed golf. And Shanon, she was a nurse for many, many years. She lived to be 104. How sad is the following? She was a widow for 44 years.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 30, 2012 @ 2:38 pm
And your post about the key temperatures for buds and blooms was wonderful, wd, very informative.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 30, 2012 @ 2:40 pm
Oh-oh. I was wrong about my forsythias only getting limited sun until late in the day, until later in winter. They are in full sun right now, and have probably been there since the sun got around Sugar Loaf Mountain in mid-morning. I may have to go out there and sing them a lullaby …. I told you’all I am crazy …..
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 30, 2012 @ 3:00 pm
Accu is buying into the cold and snowy idea for next week……..near the end of this article.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/northeast-lateweek-storm-squas/60913
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — January 30, 2012 @ 3:10 pm
Amazing……late January, and Tuesday’s snowfall in the lower 48 will only be a couple inches in the northern Cascades of Washington State.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — January 30, 2012 @ 3:24 pm
Doug, if the putt ended up on the other side of the cup as the golfer, it would be 180 degrees. If it comes back to the golfer, it’s 360. It’s really a math thing more than a golf thing, although I like both
Wow wdbrand, and here I thought religion was the #1 culprit of brainwashing.
It’s 56.2 in Goodview and actually still rising at 4:10pm.
Forecast is not looking as good for another Snowshoe trip this weekend. Maybe that will change as we go along….always hope.
Comment by Brian — January 30, 2012 @ 4:15 pm
I’d cancel. Not even snow making weather.
Comment by wdbrand — January 30, 2012 @ 7:37 pm
I just love this blog – everything from weather to wine! I’ve put Phileo and Simpatico on my shopping list. Chateau Morrisette wines are always some of my favorites, especially Our Dog Blue, the red service dog wine Liberty, and I love their Blackberry wine for a dessert wine. It’s getting exciting to drop in lately – I love the anticipation of snow!
Comment by Meg — January 30, 2012 @ 7:46 pm
Doug, I watched the Farmers Insurance Open yesterday. The ending was fantastic! As you know, I play golf as well and watching it on TV is always a treat. I can’t wait til the Masters and the U.S. Open, and the other biggies come around! The Masters especially! It really is something special.
Now back to weather! Kevin, I really enjoyed those record high stats you posted on comment 60. It puts tomorrow into perspective well. I will most likely break out the short sleeves tomorrow!
And I won’t trust Accuweather until they are right more than twice in a row on predicting snow storms. I realized that this winter hasn’t even been fun because there hasn’t even been the threat of snow to forecast…I’d much rather have a tease-filled winter like last year rather than this because at least there’s the threat and excitement of pinpointing low-pressure systems that could bring snow. Doug, seems as if you have come around finally, did I actually read that you may want it to snow???????
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — January 30, 2012 @ 8:44 pm
To add to above, while the golf ending was exciting, I never expected a play-off…kinda felt bad for Stanley. He hasn’t won a big one yet and he had the WORST of luck on the 18th. I couldn’t believe his ball rolled into the water hazard!
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — January 30, 2012 @ 8:46 pm
It is 36 here and the PWS near the Doppler says it is 42. Hmmmm.
Comment by Doppler Carol — January 30, 2012 @ 8:56 pm
I don’t see any comments since noontime about the CPC multi-day. More early candy for cold-weather lovers. For the first time in what seems like ages, even today’s 6-10 day has hopped on the blue-color-over-Virginia bandwagon. Every day for the past 4 or 5 days at least, we are getting more and more evidence that things will at least be turning a lot colder than they have been. I hope that it will be in time to prevent as many fruit trees as possible from blooming now or very soon throughout our region. Time for another aerial view of the polar regions? Or wait a bit longer? I am pretty sure that there is no vortex over (or west of) Alaska any more ….
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 30, 2012 @ 9:23 pm
Through yesterday, ROA is a big +4.6 above normal for temp this month. With both tomorrow (mid-60s) and especially Wed. (upper 60s) very warm, it looks like January has a chance to be a +5, even outdoing December’s +4.9.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 30, 2012 @ 9:26 pm
So much for the cold coming. NWS has high temp in Blacksburg next Monday 2/6 at 45 degrees. If +3 degrees above normal is going to count as “getting colder”, than I think I have to give up on getting excited any more about pattern changes, etc.
Comment by Mike — January 30, 2012 @ 9:38 pm
Blacksburg is at +3.9 through Sunday, but it was a really toasty +5.6 for December.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 30, 2012 @ 9:46 pm
Just when I was going to write an update, he comes another earthquake!
This time a 3.2 magnitude near Mineral which is about 25 miles away.
It was more like turning on a massage chair for about 15 seconds. No jolt like the 5.8 big un from August but you could hear and feel it.
Now to the weather…
Monday’s model runs show increased potential for Feb. 5-6 ice/snow/rain event and even greater potential for a possible significant snow event for Feb. 10-12 time frame.
more on this Tuesday
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — January 30, 2012 @ 10:10 pm
Not surprised, Mike. For 1 thing, I think this temperature could ratchet downward some as time goes along, especially if there is a significant East Coast storm this weekend that could pull cold air southward (whether or not it snows/ices on us). The high of 45 is probably based on the mid-range of models showing a wide variety of solutions.
And besides I’m still sticking to Feb. 10 as the approximate date of the normal/slightly below winter period. I’m thinking this weekend’s storm might only be a preview of it.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 30, 2012 @ 10:44 pm
Mike, those CPC predictions are for multiple days. Besides, we have all seen — and several of us have been “burned”, including me — by trusting or making our own forecasts for even as little as 3 days in advance. I thought Blacksburg and Roanoke and Other John (in eastern Pulaski County) would all end up with at least 2.5 inches of rain for January, because I thought that the last rainstorm would produce at least a 1/2 inch, probably more. Nope! I was wrong. Roanoke is going to end up with a very dry 1.69 inches, about 1.5 below normal. Blacksburg is just a shade over 2 inches. If this weekend comes and the forecast for Blacksburg is still for mid- and upper-40s for most of the week of the 6th, then complain about a bad outlook.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 30, 2012 @ 11:11 pm
I think Mike was referring to the NWS-Blacksburg point forecast for next Monday, not the CPC. Either way, it’s a week away, not a lot of precision.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 30, 2012 @ 11:26 pm
Nick, where did you see that I wanted snow? I am trying to present all the facts (well, the facts that I understand) that are out there, and for perhaps the first time all winter most of them are pointing to much colder temps, that’s all. I have been skeptical for all of the preceding weeks, perhaps as several of you and Kevin have been, that a real pattern change is “just around the corner.” No longer.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 30, 2012 @ 11:35 pm