2012.01.31
UPDATE 11 PM, 1/31: Similarly mild day on Wednesday; warmth gradually giving way to colder pattern next 7-10 days
UPDATE 11 PM, 1/31: Short update tonight. Wednesday will be a similarly mild day to Tuesday, with more clouds and showers toward the afternoon. This is the beginning of the storm system that will bring a Pacific front through by Thursday morning that will knock a few degrees off the temperatures. After Roanoke tied its Jan. 31 record high of 68 on Tuesday, record Feb. 1 highs of 74 for Roanoke (1989) and 73 for Blacksburg (2002) will not be challenged. More showers with a stronger low and front for the weekend, with the storm system likely taking too far of a northerly track and not enough cold-air damming being present for a wintry weather risk this weekend. Signals still point to a gradual step-down to near-normal February temperatures, and perhaps a somewhat greater risk of wintry precipitation with a possible storm system near Feb. 10 — still too far out for many details. END UPDATE
UPDATE 11 AM: CORRECTION to information below: Blacksburg’s record high for Jan. 31 is 73 set in 2002 — not 63 as I reported below. Some discrepancy between databases on this, but I checked the NWS-Blacksburg report of 73 against that month’s records and it is accurate. We’ll go with that. Blacksburg will NOT tie or set a record today. END UPDATE
It’s the last day of January, and there are red colors on a map of Virginia illustrating temperatures. That’s not the way it’s supposed to be. The inset map at left is from the map of projected temperatures for 4 p.m. today from the National Weather Service, as of late Monday night. As the legend at the top tells, the orange and red colors depict highs in the 60s. (You can find those maps linked here if you want to check to see if anything has changed.) There is a solid chance that Roanoke’s Jan. 31 record high of 68 — set in 1974 and 1916 — and Blacksburg’s Jan. 31 record high of 63 set in 2011 will be challenged today. My early guess is that Roanoke comes in just a bit short while Blacksburg ties its record — just a guess. Temperatures may actually be a little higher on Wednesday, but the bars for record highs are much higher for Feb. 1 — 74 for Roanoke (1989) and 73 for Blacksburg (2002) — and probably won’t be challenged.
Increasing showers and the passage of a Pacific cold front — cool front, really, not cold — will curtail the warmth in the latter half of the week. 50s for highs will be common.
Whether cold-air damming will be strong enough over the weekend and early next week for a storm system to bring ice, snow or mix instead of just rain is doubtful, but still possible. Next week looks to mark a rather gradual shift from the mild to warm weather pattern we’ve experienced for weeks to something colder. We’ll keep an eye on the horizon for possible snow chances — some indication the Feb. 10-11 period may have a shot, but that’s just too far out to take too seriously yet.
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Interesting temperature difference at 5AM. Roanoke at 42, here in Hardy at 34 and Blacksburg at 28…that’s a pretty big range. No wonder we get so many different kinds of winter precipitation at the same time in this area.
Comment by Betsy — January 31, 2012 @ 5:55 am
Heat wave!!!! 51.3* @ 7:48 AM on da Knob.
Comment by wdbrand — January 31, 2012 @ 7:49 am
57.4* @ 8:44 AM.
Comment by wdbrand — January 31, 2012 @ 8:44 am
Betsy I noticed that too…we were at 29 in Goodview at 5am with a low of 27.5 at 7:10am. Currently 52.9 and spring-like.
Comment by Brian — January 31, 2012 @ 10:45 am
I did double check the records for 2002 (per my correction in the update) — 73 is correct for Blacksburg on Jan. 31, and it was 7 degrees warmer than Roanoke on that day. (But Roanoke hit 79 on Jan 30 2002)
Southeast Regional Climate Center database has record at 63 for Blacksburg on Jan. 31, set in 2011. NWS has it as 73 in 2002. Don’t know reason for discrepancy.
Will double check on Wednesday record too.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 31, 2012 @ 11:36 am
Is it bad for a snow lover to say that I’m actually looking forward to the next 2 warm days? I want to get out and walk some.
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — January 31, 2012 @ 11:53 am
Now THIS goes against pretty much everything we have been reading about lately: WFIR had a piece this morning where they interviewed “Nick Fillow” (I guessed on the spelling!) of Blacksburg’s National Weather Service. Nick said that he thought all of February would continue the warm trend we saw in January. He said there would be cold days as well, but overall it would be warm. Any thoughts on this?
Comment by Sam Oakey — January 31, 2012 @ 12:05 pm
On my way into work after watching my old truck get hauled away to the scrap yard, the new car said 61 degrees in the NRV. This feels more like the transition from April to May, than January to February…except things aren’t green yet. If only I could take the day off and hit the links…too bad this couldn’t have happened this weekend!
Comment by Other John — January 31, 2012 @ 12:40 pm
Sam: Opinions vary. I for one am not expecting a very cold Feb … just normal.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 31, 2012 @ 12:44 pm
There was a big difference this morning between the Doppler Personal Weather Station and my backyard. It was 40 F there and 30 F here. I guess it has to do with the placement of the thermometer.
Really breezy here today but blue skies and sunny. I have been outside enjoying some of the Vitamin D. Nurse Shanon – no I don’t think it is bad to be looking forward to the warm days even though you are a snow lover. I am enjoying the sunshine and the warm weather too but patiently waiting for some snow. I hope the 3 inches we got a couple weekends ago wasn’t it for the season.
Comment by Doppler Carol — January 31, 2012 @ 1:04 pm
If there was a line on temps for February, I’d place the over/under at +2 degrees for the month, and take the over. I think we see one decent-ish snow in the month with a widespread 3-6″ mixed storm like we seem to get pretty regularly, and maybe one other storm that is more elevation-dependent, but I think the month overall finishes warmer and drier than normal, with maybe 60-70% of ‘normal’ precipitation. There may be one more storm in early March, but I believe spring gets off to an early start, with a late frost/freeze sometime in the latter half of April. Nothing like 2007, but one that does some damage. Summer though, I get the feeling will be a little cooler than last year, and more wet.
Note, these are my WAG’s on the weather, no science went into the forumlation of them…it’s just my thoughts.
Comment by Other John — January 31, 2012 @ 1:24 pm
Sam,
I’m with Kevin on normal temps for Feb but I’m going above normal for precip. (liquid equivalent). If these upcoming 2 events that the models are depicting for Feb. 5-6 & Feb. 10-12 fizzle out, then winter just may be, IMHO & once again, I’ll look like a fool for crying wolf. That is, there will be no significant snow events that bring over 4″ of snow to VA. Right now, I don’t think there is any place in VA that has a seasonal snowfall total of over 4″ as of today. We did have some snow and we definitely had cold spells, but no comparison to anything like the last 2 winters.
I’m getting another ill feeling that I may have jumped the gun again on what may be in store with the 2 potential events. I don’t think it will be cold enough for any winter precip in VA for the Feb. 5-6 event & Feb. 11-12 may miss us too. For now, the potential is there. The highest so far this winter, #2 to Snowmaggedon. The snow lover in me says “You gotta believe.” The Meteorologist in me says “not so fast, my friend.” We’ll know for sure by Friday’s 12Z model runs.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — January 31, 2012 @ 1:28 pm
Captain Q: We have 5.00 snow in Wytheville so far this winter. A 3″ wopper in that Alberta Clipper a couple weeks back and a few much smaller ones before that.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — January 31, 2012 @ 2:42 pm
I suspect White Top and Mt. Rogers are over a foot of snow for the year, but that is still WAY down from normal.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — January 31, 2012 @ 2:44 pm
From The Weather Center at News Channel 988…
Tuesday’s 12Z Euro run show increasing chances for a Significant Winter Weather Event for Feb. 10-12 time frame. Potential is growing and is looking better. Feb. 5-6 still there, but I’m not on board for this event just yet, still thinking all rain. But I’m on for Feb. 10-12. More later….gotta fly now.
More Weds AM.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — January 31, 2012 @ 2:48 pm
D. Carol, sensor placement is all important on a sunny and or a windy day. My sensor sits in full sun therefore it shows warmer on sunny days. Cloudy days and early morning readings are generally totally reliable. If thier sensor sets in the sun and yours in the shade, 10*’s probably isn’t that far off.
Comment by wdbrand — January 31, 2012 @ 2:56 pm
From 120-132 on the GFS ensembles, they all show a coastal. None of them show a GLC or an apps runner. The OP doesn’t agree with the ensembles. Also, quite a few of the ensembles show snow for Virginia on the 5-6th time frame. Something interesting to watch with future model runs.
Comment by Alex — January 31, 2012 @ 3:24 pm
As much as it pains me to say it, we won’t see another flake this winter. Stick a fork in it. We’re done.
Comment by skibum — January 31, 2012 @ 3:51 pm
Noticed that as well Alex, quite a few ensembles centered the ‘bullseye’ of most snow in our area too.
Anywho, even though I do love the cold and snow, I could get used to days like today for a little while.
Comment by Roa10 — January 31, 2012 @ 4:07 pm
Not 1 flake? Wow that’s a hard prediction. Even in the warmest winters we usually see a few flurries in Feb and March
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 31, 2012 @ 4:09 pm
You know the saying, Roa10: If you want snow, never be in the bullseye a week out.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 31, 2012 @ 4:11 pm
To not have another flake would basically mean there would not be any more Arctic fronts capable of getting a single upslope flurry over the mountains to Roanoke. We’re almost certainly going to see Arctic fronts the next couple of weeks. Whether there’s enough moisture for anything measurable when it’s cold … that’s debatable.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 31, 2012 @ 4:18 pm
Yeah, but ensembles showing a more coastal solution after days of an ugly cut off and a GLC is better than nothing right now.
Comment by Alex — January 31, 2012 @ 4:57 pm
Do you expect highs in the lower 40′s for much of the next 7- 10 days after this weekend??
Comment by Chris — January 31, 2012 @ 5:11 pm
Oh ye of little faith.
Comment by wdbrand — January 31, 2012 @ 5:43 pm
Chris: From Feb. 6-24, I would say we’ll see more days with highs in the 40s than days with highs in the 50s or highs in the 30s or lower. (Basing this on Roanoke). I’ll have to remember to look back and check if this is right or not.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 31, 2012 @ 5:50 pm
What’s a GLC? And Kevin when are you gonna weigh in on the potential Feb. 10-12 weather. Quagmire already scared me with his “Snowmaggedon” remark in comment #12
Comment by Mark in Pulaski — January 31, 2012 @ 6:01 pm
Well I did mention Feb. 10-11 in my blog post above. I think Feb. 7 would be about right to weigh in more specifically on a possible setup stil 10 days away! That’s well outside the parameters of any existing forecast model to project anything but broad-brush large-scale patterns. I see some potential on the models, but too many ifs right now.
I don’t see a problem getting sufficient cold air over the next couple of weeks. I just question whether the moisture will be there when the cold air is, or if the cold air will suppress it. It’s not gonna be a happy day for the snow lovers on this blog if you wait all season and then the first decent shot turns into a snowstorm for South Carolina.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 31, 2012 @ 6:09 pm
Thanks Kevin. I still want to know what a GLC is.
Comment by Mark in Pulaski — January 31, 2012 @ 6:12 pm
I was waiting on Alex to answer that.
Not 100 percent certain, but I’m going guess it’s Great Lakes Cutter.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 31, 2012 @ 6:28 pm
Hey any opinions or recommendations on the Davis weather stations. I have a acu rite now that’s similar to the low end Davis station. So I’m trying to figure out which one to get of the two Davis stations. My acurite isn’t doing so good thanks
Comment by Kris — January 31, 2012 @ 6:47 pm
I’m still not buying the snow event for Feb 10-11. TWC is still keeping temps as high as 53 on the 6th and 50s through the 9th of February. Maybe a skirt with something occurring at night icy mixture or something but with the ground being warmed to 50s all week long, I don’t see a major dumping of snow and it lying around for awhile.
I think we need to open the floor for whether we will see a measurable snow between now and the end of winter?
Comment by Mike — January 31, 2012 @ 7:42 pm
I say yes, but not a lot, because that is what has occurred historically in all similar situations. 2 to 5 inches total for Roanoke in Feb and/or March (maybe 3 to 7 NRV). Getting nothing or more than 5 would break the historical trend on very low snow thru Feb 1. Either is certainly possible, but when in doubt, I take the historic pattern
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 31, 2012 @ 7:56 pm
Kris: The Davis is a good station and the amount of things the low end model can do I think is impressive. It can graph and track all the different variables and display them in multiple scales or formats. It also automatically resets values at the start of each year like yearly rainfall total and of course yearly extreme values on the console but does save all time extremes. It updates every 2 seconds with wind direction and speed which is nice. It seems to be very reliable with the wireless communication part and has the ability to change frequencies on its own if it detects interference so you don’t lose data or the connection. I’m not sure which two models you are looking at but the main difference between the Vue and Pro2 is the display on the console is bigger with the Pro2 and the instrument cluster is a different design. With the Vue all the sensors are together in one unit, with the Pro2 you can separate and mount them in different places linked by a cable I think. Other than that they are the same. Its not until you go up to like Pro2 Plus that you get a solar sensor and things like this if that is something you needed.
Comment by Aaron — January 31, 2012 @ 8:53 pm
I’ll comment on this morning’s temps in a few. Why all the doom and gloom among the snow lovers/likers? This is no fun. The AO is still expected to go negative and stay there. I must admit, I was surprised that the 8-14 day CPC outlook suddenly has reversed course, and shows all of Virginia back in the white, neutral zone. I was very surprised by that. Kevin, any thoughts on why that changed? No negative NAO, therefore no block to hold the colder temps in place? If February ends up being even a bit warmer than normal, especially in the first half of the month, this may end up being the nicest winter for delivering mail (OK, IMHO) in my 15 winters here. Within a couple of weeks, the normal high temp for Roanoke hits 50*, and we are almost at 10.5 hours of daylight. We reach 11 before the end of February.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 31, 2012 @ 9:18 pm
I exchanged a couple of e-mails with Robin Reed, and he told me that RRA reached its low of 36 degrees at 2:42 AM. But by the time Leo H came on the air, the temp at RRA had soared to 44!! Yet it was still 40 at my house a bit before 7, and I saw 38 and 37 in the western half of Roanoke city on my way to work. The icon at Channel 7 was showing 37 during the 6AM to 7AM weathercasts, too. Although one of those great weather guys once told me years ago that the thermometer at WDBJ7 sits way down low, almost in a ditch on the north side of the building, and can sometimes generate extremely low temps in early morning, especially in winter. But I am beginning to wonder if something happens at RRA just before 6 AM that is generating hot air that is affecting the thermometer there. RRA was 7 degrees warmer than the Plantation Road area nearby early yesterday.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 31, 2012 @ 9:25 pm
Doug, thank you for clarifying!
So, I’m guessing that the 2009-2010 winter was just an aberration in the wide-scale pattern? That’s a shame.
Comment by Nick in the Elett Valley — January 31, 2012 @ 10:18 pm
Kris, Davis has been very reliable for me. I had the Weather Monitor II for 18 years that continued to work (even after it moved three times with me) until I replaced it last year. I now have the Pro2 wireless model. As Aaron mentioned, one of the great things about this product is the ability to place the sensors in different locations. This means a lot if you really want your readings to be as accurate as possible.
As for today in Goodview, we hit 68.5 at 3:28pm. Currently 53.6 which is amazingly enough warmer than North Myrtle Beach right now (51).
Comment by Brian — January 31, 2012 @ 10:21 pm
As the one who has been stressing the word “normal” referring to February temps, I’m not too surprised about the CPC maps going back to the white “N” zone. Averaging out several days, that will probably be about right.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 31, 2012 @ 10:46 pm
If Mike says he doesn’t see much potential for a storm around Feb 10-11, then I need to make a run to the store around Feb 8 considering his track record lately (haha, just messin with ya Mike!)
Comment by Flutie — January 31, 2012 @ 10:49 pm
Mike would love to be wrong, I’m sure.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 31, 2012 @ 10:57 pm
Nick, I for one think next winter will be another biggie. I say that strictly based on what has happened in previous decades. In the 1980s, there was a cluster of heavy snow years. In the 1990s, there was the March 1993 monster, 1994 had a series of ice storms (at least in Northern Virginia where I was), then the winter of 1996 with the early January monster plus a couple of other big snowfalls. Then a lengthy snow drought, but now 2009-10 has happened. If next winter is still another tame one, my theory is blown. I will be particularly (gosh, I was about to type “optimistic!”) confident if an El Nino develops.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 31, 2012 @ 11:00 pm
Ah, Flutie, that was what some of the younger fellas to whom I deliver mail would call “cold.” But clever.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 31, 2012 @ 11:02 pm
El Nino is such a double-edged sword. A lot of times it just overwhelms the pattern and we have a mild wet winter. In 2009-10, we still had tons of rain but so much cold air shoveled in that we also had a lot of snow, too. If the Arctic/North Atlantic patterns hadn’t been as strong as they were, that would have been another mild, wet winter.
I think on the whole “La Nada” – the middle ground between El Nino and La Nina — is the best territory for consistently solid winters here. None of it matters much, though, if the air patterns over the high latitudes don’t cooperate.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 31, 2012 @ 11:05 pm
Besides, as wd and I and to a lesser extent Kevin have been saying, a long way to go yet. This would really be something if suddenly everything falls into place and within two weeks we start getting snow. Not just one, either. Some of you snow lovers will be compared to fans who leave a sporting event early because your team was getting beaten decisively and to avoid the traffic, then suddenly your heroes start playing great and you return to the stadium. That’s OK. Kevin and even I will welcome you back, figuratively.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 31, 2012 @ 11:08 pm
Since starting Weather Journal in 2002, and the blog in 2005, I’ve gone through about four winters that had very low snow totals and meager weather patterns for snow about this time of winter. I’m used to February or early March producing something, often seemingly out of thin air. A stronger-than-typical Alberta clipper in 2007. One vigorous disturbance hitting the cold air punch perfectly (with no Greenland blocking to hold it in — it was 83 4 days after the snow!) in 2009. A Miller A climbing out of the Gulf to hit marginally cold air at the perfect time of day (early morning) in 2005. February/early March seem to work better for snow with very marginal setups than do December and January. That’s why, unless I see an obvious blazing warmup for weeks ahead, I’m not letting go of the chance of snow just because there isn’t a deep Arctic outbreak or perfect weather patterns like 2009-10 seemed to deliver on a weekly basis (and really, 2010-11 did without producing much). A period of highs in the upper 40s and lows in the mid-upper 20s on sunny days can beget a winter storm if the setup is right.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 31, 2012 @ 11:14 pm
GLC-Great Lakes Cutter. Name so by the old time GL Mariners. Legend has it that whenever these type storms had passed, it would freeze over the Lakes and the only way to get thru was with an Ice Cutter. Hence the name as folklore would have.
0Z GFS out and says to keep in touch. Feb. 5-6 event still there but all rain for Mid-Atlantic. But it now shows potential for 2 significant winter events for the eastern seaboard including VA on Feb. 10 & Feb 12.
Stay tuned, same bat time, same bat channel…
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 1, 2012 @ 12:19 am
Another quick note on the 0Z GFS & Sam, Doug & the SHA will love this, the temps go back to way above normal after Feb. 14, like 60s-70s for highs.
Makes ya wonder…
Say Good Night Gracie!
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 1, 2012 @ 12:25 am
Yesterday was a whopping 15* warmer than normal in ROA. January ended up at +4.8. In Blacksburg, yesterday was 12* on warm side, and month was +4.1.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 1, 2012 @ 6:11 am
Just to clarify there are two “Mike’s” on this blog now. The “Mike” that has commented on this thread is NOT me (Blacksburg Mike). I will change my name on here to “Blacksburg Mike” to help differntiate. Still appreciate the commment, Flutie, although that was not me that commented above. At any rate, I am starting to give up on this winter. Coldest forecasted high temp in next seven days (Feb. 1-7) in Blacksburg is 45 on Sunday! That may be “cooler” than it has been, but it is far from cold, and does not get me the least bit excited about a pattern change. As for the Feb. 10-11 storm, I am not buying it at all. It will be too warm, and the storm will move too quickly anyways to dump any appreciable snowfall.
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 1, 2012 @ 6:23 am
Well, I could be wrong about the following, but I bet the Punxsutawney Phil groundhog sees his shadow tomorrow morning, even if the town fathers have to jury-rig it with bright lights, which they might (will probably be rainy there). But instead of meaning “6 more weeks of winter,” this year it will mean, “6 weeks of winter …. FINALLY!” That may not be valid for SW Virginia, but who knows. My friend Bob Macintosh in western Mass., the one who was interviewed on a local tv station after his town got blasted with 21 inches of snow on Oct. 29th, told me a couple of days ago that he had two or three itsy snows since then, none more than an inch or so, no more than 4 inches total. Bare ground for several weeks. That means that his area received 5 times as much snow before Halloween this season than he received in the 3 months since then!! Maybe they will turn snowier ….
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 1, 2012 @ 7:07 am
Woke up this morning, and it was 46 degrees…with birds singing! More like a May 1st morning than February 1st. Some rain showers to the west combining with the sunrise to produce a pretty nice partial double rainbow to boot. This winter completely reminds me of those I grew up with in Virginia Beach…and I’m not so sure that’s a good thing. But maybe the elusive, infamous pattern change that always seemed on the horizon but just beyond the cusp of reality will swing by and stay a while.
Comment by Other John — February 1, 2012 @ 8:09 am
Thanks for your thoughts on a possible warm February, Cap and Kev. While I haven’t posted many comments this winter, I love getting my daily dose of weather chat on the blog and comment site. The predictions, ideas, history, and factoids always makes for good reading!
Comment by Sam Oakey — February 1, 2012 @ 8:22 am
Other John – it was an awesome rainbow here just before 9 am – a complete one. I got some pictures. Sunny here and not too bad outside – just need a light jacket or sweatshirt.
Comment by Doppler Carol — February 1, 2012 @ 9:16 am
Feb. 22, 2002: 5.3 inches of snow
Feb. 21, 2002 high: 53 degrees
Feb. 27-28, 2005: 7.5 inches of snow
Feb. 26 high: 49 degrees
Feb. 28-March 2, 2009: 9.4 inches of snow
Feb. 27 high: 55 degrees
These figures are for BLACKSBURG, not Roanoke. You don’t have to have a major Arctic outbreak in place for snow, especially late in the season. Just access to a decently cold air mass and a favorable storm track.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 1, 2012 @ 9:18 am
That said … it is whether we get the right storm track for snow (wrong track, for snow dislikers) that is questionable when I look at the next 10-14 days. Feb. 5-6 storm is going too far north. Feb. 10-12 storm, rather than being too warm, may have the opposite issue, going too far south and out to sea because of the placement of cold high pressure. All subject to change. Models very imprecise at this range.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 1, 2012 @ 9:37 am
2 of 3 major climate indicies — the Arctic Oscillation and Pacific-North American pattern — are now solidly in the direction of a colder pattern and likely to stay there for the foreseeable future. You can see that on the charts below with the bars below the 0 line for the AO and above that line for the PNA:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.mrf.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.mrf.gif
If the North Atlantic Oscillation were to switch hard negative to join them, I think snow fans would have an ending to remember for this very mild winter. If not, I think we get 2 weeks of coldish/near-normal temps and maybe a slushy snow or mixed event or 2, then back to mild or even outright warm.
Right now, it’s showing bars above the 0 bar into mid-month.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.mrf.gif
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 1, 2012 @ 9:55 am
I’m still a believer that we will get some snow this winter. I NEED at least 2 snow days from school before spring break LOL
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — February 1, 2012 @ 10:30 am
Maybe there is some hope for some colder weather! I would just be happy to have two weeks of days in low 40′s nights in 20′s and 2 good 3-5 inch snows!! Do you see this as a good possibily at least temperature wise??
Comment by Chris — February 1, 2012 @ 10:35 am
Without a major Arctic outbreak it’s hard to get highs to park in the low 40s every day for two weeks in February, at least for Roanoke, similar elevations and areas south and east. The sun angle and hours of sunlight are starting to increase just enough that a sunny day will usually push us closer to 50 even in a moderate strength cold air mass.
I think I said earlier that between Feb. 6 and 20, I was projecting more days with highs in the 40s than in the 50s or 30s. I’ll stick to that for now.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 1, 2012 @ 11:04 am
You know, I think I could get use to this stuff. When I can walk outside at 6 AM in my shorts to take mutt out and it’s 57.6 degrees, on the 1st of Feb., it ain’t hard atall. And got two pots of onions in also before daylight.
Comment by wdbrand — February 1, 2012 @ 12:26 pm
Look at Snowshoe weather. If you think this board is crying da blues, whatcha reckon the resort is doing?
Comment by wdbrand — February 1, 2012 @ 2:12 pm
This here weather right here is about snipe huntin weather, this aint winter time weather at all, wonder what is ale-ing ole mother nature? 55 degreese up here down here in ole Willis, Va. Starting to sprink a little too. I dont see it snowin next week though id like to see it happen, gotta get a little more cold though. hope yall are fairin alright in this here spring weather, haha! yall have a gooden
Comment by Richard Sampson in Willis, Va — February 1, 2012 @ 3:32 pm
Here we go again with the models…and one of them is going to have to give in this go around. All 4 major models go in completely different directions now. As I figured, this weekend’s event will be warm from DC south with all rain. The much more significant event for Feb. 11-12 is still there but 4 different scenarios. I think what we are seeing here is that the models are not depicting the correct solutions due to timing and data flaws which the Euro is prone to do. GFS is just as confusing and frustrating at the same time. In the meantime, enjoy the lovely spring conditions. OK, Mr. Groundhog, your turn.
wdbrand. Buddy of mine who works @ Snowshoe says it’s getting spring like conditions up there. Too warm to make snow. They may be closing down several trails after President’s Day holiday unless they can a cold snap or snow to return.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — February 1, 2012 @ 4:46 pm
Thanks for the info about the Davis weather stations. If I can find the the Davis pro 2 for 350 off eBay I may get it . Thanks again
Comment by Kris — February 1, 2012 @ 4:52 pm
Crazy weather. I came home to find that all of my spring bulbs have broke ground and one of my tulips is already busting open. This sucks.
Comment by Nate — February 1, 2012 @ 5:26 pm
Quags, your 4:46 comment. I know many folks here love your posting stuff about the models, and you certainly know all about them. You are definitely an expert on them. But February 10 is 8 days away, and the 12th is 10 days out. For those who are religious, (and I personally know one person here who comments a lot who is) God created the world in 7 days. :>) :>) Please keep us posted about what the models are saying about the 10th-12th timeframe. But how about skipping tomorrow and doing it on Friday unless there is a major change? I bet I am going to be rebuked by Kevin immediately.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 1, 2012 @ 5:52 pm
Kevin, hats off for about the 500th time, this time for your 9:18 comment. Great research, and very impressive findings. Would you say that there are more instances of such snowstorms from mid-February on than during the heart of winter?
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 1, 2012 @ 6:24 pm
Channel 7 gave some rain totals from spots much further WSW than Roanoke. Marion has already had 0.59 inches as of 6:00, and Saltville had 0.52 during the 5:20 weathercast. The luckies. Good for them. How about you, Rick of Wytheville? Have you had at least 3/10ths of an inch already? We Roanokers could use at least 1/2 inch. And I would like more. The timing of this event is terrific again. Gonna happen overnight and very early, then stop (probably) tomorrow before we letter carriers become “streetwalkers!”
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 1, 2012 @ 6:29 pm
I’m not sure I would say there are more snowstorms in that period. But it does seem there are more instances of medium-large snow events occurring with much less textbook setups from about mid February onward.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 1, 2012 @ 6:32 pm
I’ll post this for the snow lovers to feel a little Valentine’s swoon — the 12Z GFS for Feb 16 linked below:
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/01/12ZGFShr3480201.gif
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 1, 2012 @ 6:33 pm
And Sam Oakey, my MVP, you are making me nervous. Your good comment today is your 3rd comment in the past week or so. As we discussed privately, you have been MIA from this blog for most of this winter, and the snows have also been MIA. Get off the blog!!! ……………. Just kidding. LOL LOL
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 1, 2012 @ 6:37 pm
Cap’t, here is how I’m going to do the rest of the season. Up at usual time of 5 AM. Ready at 6:44 AM to see what the hairy varmit has to say. My forecast after I consulltate wid Mr. Phil. And iffen he has a solid black wooly worm ridin on his back, lookout.
Comment by wdbrand — February 1, 2012 @ 6:42 pm
Kevin, can you say what that map means for those of us who don’t know how to read it? I can tell there’s precipitation over us but that’s about all I can read.
Comment by Jennifer — February 1, 2012 @ 6:43 pm
Everything west of the blue line on the map would be snow, and the low is ideally positioned for a major winter storm. Linking again below:
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/01/12ZGFShr3480201.gif
It won’t happen exactly this way, of course, being 15 days away. Today’s GFS runs do show quite a bit of wintry potential Feb. 9-18 IF they are in the ballpark.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 1, 2012 @ 6:58 pm
Right now, it looks like the next true Arctic front in this pattern re-alignment (not calling it a “change” or “shift” since it’s more of a gradual ongoing thing rather than flipping a switch like it has been sometimes in the past) arrives late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Cold fronts before then will be Pacific/Canadian origin and only incrementally reduce temperatures.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — February 1, 2012 @ 7:01 pm
NWS forecast for next Weds. 2/8 has high temp of 41, which would jive with your call, Kevin, for the colder weather arriving next Weds. This snow lover sure hopes you are right, and you have given us hope with your observation about 50 degree days in the past followed by significant snow storms. I am just guarded now, after being burned badly. Also, thanks for the eye candy on the GFS for Feb. 16th. I love the models in fantasy land!
Comment by Blacksburg Mike — February 1, 2012 @ 7:39 pm
Nate, I got a kick out of your 5:26 comment, especially the last two words. And for any cold weather lover (or just any concerned gardener, I guess), my reply to you is “Yeah …… and it doesn’t even feel good.” ……….. That was (my attempt at) a joke. Reincarnation of something that Bob Macintosh’s brother Alan said almost 50 years ago that got all of us laughing.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 1, 2012 @ 8:02 pm
The comments about the Feb. 16th GFS (possibly) big snowstorm. At least the 16th is a federal holiday. But the timing of that could spell huge trouble for me. I am scheduled to deliver 24017′s biggest walking route on the 17th. SAM!!! STAY OFF THE BLOG!!!
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — February 1, 2012 @ 8:07 pm