2012.01.27
Some cold front, huh? 60 degrees possible on Saturday; middling chill arrives by Monday, for 1 day
Last weekend looked like it would be mild a few days before, but ended up cold and a little icy. This weekend looked like it would be cold a few days ago, but will end up mild — at least on Saturday afternoon. Despite the windy cold front that blew through early Friday, 60 is possible for Saturday in Roanoke. High temperaures in the 50s to low 60s will be widespread across our region, as downsloping westerly to southwesterly winds and sunshine combine to boost temperatures ahead of a reinforcing cold front that will arrive Saturday evening. Yet another reinforcing shot of cold air from Canada will arrive late Sunday after a not-so-cold day in the mid 40s to low 50s. We will finally have seasonably cold weather for Monday — highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s — before the temperature warms back up again for Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly again reaching the 60-degree mark.
You may see some discussion about a possible winter storm for late next week, but if that happens, it’s probably going to be somewhere to our northwest or northeast depending on the track of a likely-to-develop low-pressure system. That low will bring another cold front through that will lead to another shot of cold air and possibly some mountain snow showers. A lot of details remain to be worked out about the late-week storm, which could yet be a soaker for our region, or just splatter us with a few showers. Long-term, it does appear the core of warmest air will move westward into the western U.S., and that may allow a little bit more cold air to take hold beyond next weekend. I’m thinking seasonal kind of stuff, 40s highs/20s lows, not a big chill.
RSS feed 
Is this Louisiana rain about Thursday, the possible gulf system that would come our way as snow?
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e00p48iwbg_fill.gif
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — January 27, 2012 @ 9:08 pm
It will likely come our way — but it won’t be snow.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 27, 2012 @ 9:12 pm
Was I the only one that listened to Kevin today on the radio? I just wished it would have lasted more than 5 minutes.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — January 27, 2012 @ 9:18 pm
This is amazing, Rick (of Wytheville!!). Fellow Snow Hater Griggsy also finally remembered to listen in, too. Question is, did any snow lovers listen in, too? We hope so. He went over the same stuff he covered here on the blog and in the Weather Journal article of earlier this week, that indeed this is a quite warm and basically snowless winter, but it is not even close to challenging the winter of 1931-32 for warmth. Nice job, KM. And he also explained that back in the early 1930s they did not know about oscillations or El/La Ninos/Ninas, that those terms came about later.
Comment by Doug "Minion" Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 27, 2012 @ 9:36 pm
Thank you for your support!
Actually, El Nino has been known about for centuries, noted by the warm waters on the coast of Peru. (Apparently the concept of La Nina wasn’t as well known) But in general all these oscillations/indexes we talk so much about like NAO, AO, etc. have generally been defined in the last 50 years or so. (Though I just found out the North Atlantic Oscillation was first discovered in the 1920s)
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 27, 2012 @ 9:43 pm
Including tomorrow, I will have walked three of the last 4 days. My reward comes next week. Off on Monday, and the only day that I have to walk is Thursday, and it is the less strenuous of my two walking routes.
OH, by the way, the USPS finally let us letter carriers know that postage on first class letters has already gone up, by one cent to $0.45. Happened on anything that has a postmark after last Saturday. Post cards went up by $0.03.
If things change dramatically and somehow we do get snow on the 3rd or 4th, no biggie for me. I will be riding on both of those days.
Comment by Doug "Minion" Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 27, 2012 @ 9:44 pm
OK, you are right about El Nino and when it was first noticed/discovered, but I never heard the phrase mentioned in anyone’s weather forecasts until the late 1970s. That was another very strong El Nino, that caused huge mudslides and flooding in Southern California. True Anecdote … skip this if not interested about that El Nino. My uncle who lived in suburban New Jersey raved about the winter weather in San Diego (he had spent at least 4 to 6 weeks in the winters of 1976 and 1977 there), and “sweet-talked” my dad and mom into joining him and his wife in the San Diego area for …. January 1978. Colossal mistake. That was the first of two straight winters (I think) when Los Angeles and SD were ravaged by huge rains and very cool temps and wind. My parents were living out their last few years in Little Compton, RI, which is on the coast and south of Fall River, MA. Dad said that he might have been able to play more golf in coastal RI than he was able to in San Diego in the winter of 78. I’ll take that back ….. 1978 was when eastern New England was buried by two enormous snowfalls 19 days apart.
Comment by Doug "Minion" Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 27, 2012 @ 9:54 pm
Thursday is Groundhog Day. I am going to predict that he WILL see his shadow. But that the interpretation will have a different meaning this year. Stay tuned … I will come out with the comment on Tuesday or Wednesday. And no stealing my idea!! Grrrrr. LOL
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 27, 2012 @ 10:06 pm
Kevin, I had good intentions of listening to you but the time got away from me. I really do want to hear what you say; curious to hear what you sound like. As I read comments from the bloggers, I have formed “pictures” of everyone in my head. But since we know what you look like then all that is left for me is to wonder about your voice and accent. I will let you know when I do – LOL
Wind has died down but it is still breezy but not blustery. Temps now at 32 F with the windchill saying 29 F here on the ridge. So you are saying it will warm up tomorrow, huh?
Comment by Doppler Carol — January 27, 2012 @ 10:16 pm
Doug, the CPC has apparently been tracking the El Nino and La Nina as far back as 1950……..maybe more. See slide #24.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — January 27, 2012 @ 10:20 pm
The time has settled at 4:30 p.m. Friday after some juggling around to start in December. So there’ll be other chances. A lot of the material ends up being sort of rehashed off the blog and column, but there are occasionally some new nuggets on there.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 27, 2012 @ 10:23 pm
Doug, you should have recieved a message from a fellow letter carrier at work today
Comment by Shanon "Nurse Snow" — January 27, 2012 @ 10:53 pm
Nurse Snow, was it a female letter carrier?? I could have crowned her ….. I was ticked off at the comment. Unless you passed it along to someone else, and what she was reporting was different from what you said.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 27, 2012 @ 11:40 pm
CPC may have been tracking El and La for many years …. but I stand by what I said. I don’t ever remember any weatherman or lady mentioning it until the late 1970s. How about you, wd? I think you once mentioned you have many decades in the rear view mirror, like me. Do you ever remember it being mentioned during the 1960s or early 70s?
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 27, 2012 @ 11:43 pm
1950 is considered the start of the modern era for lots of weather data tracking — El Nino/La Nina and tornadoes come to mind. It seemed to me that El Nino really became something TV weathermen talked about a lot in the 1980s — seemed to get blamed for everything. I don’t remember being too aware of La Nina until the 1990s.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 27, 2012 @ 11:49 pm
Oh, and Doppler Carol and anyone else wondering what Kevin’s voice sounds like, I think it comes across as much more high-pitched over the radio than what it sounds like in person. I have met him on at least 4 occasions, and he does not have a high-pitched voice. As I was listening to him this afternoon, I was wondering …. did he inhale some helium? For a moment or two, I wondered if it was someone else pinch-hitting for him. And Kevin is pretty tall, too, FYI. over 6 feet, I think. I am not …. 5-9.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 27, 2012 @ 11:49 pm
I’m 6-3. Fred Echols, the WVTF announcer interviewing me, is even taller.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 27, 2012 @ 11:55 pm
… that’s my falsetto Bee Gees voice I haul out just for radio …
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 28, 2012 @ 12:01 am
My word!! Kevin Myatt cracks a joke!! And a ggod one, too. 32.5 degrees here right now, Barry Gibb Myatt. ….. I wonder if some of our younger bloggers do not have the foggiest idea who the Bee Gees are/were.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 28, 2012 @ 5:54 am
Ok, I guess I was not the only one that thought Kevin’s voice did not match his photograph, but that is just a visual perception of mine…..whatever that is worth…..about 1 cent. As long as we’re giving stats………I’m 6-3 too. Bye, gotta go hunting in the dark.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — January 28, 2012 @ 6:25 am
For what it’s worth the 6z GFS shows Bastardi’s storm for next weekend. Don’t get too excited.
Comment by Ice storm lover — January 28, 2012 @ 7:26 am
Thick frost up here on the ridge and 28 F. Calm winds for now. Waiting on today’s warm up.
So 6-3 huh? From your picture I was thinking 5-10. Now I will really have to listen to WVTF to hear that BeeGees voice!
Comment by Doppler Carol — January 28, 2012 @ 8:34 am
Morning all. I keep missing the radio spots of Kevin. I had some minor surgery so I was offline for a few days. Tall Man Kevin – way before the weather blog, your hiking columns introduced me to some great trails in the area – I have a printout of the Bottom Creek Gorge dated July 2000. It’s a pain to get to from Hokieburg…darn those mountains in the way, but it’s a hike I have gone back to several times. The trail is rich in history and archaeological resources and I learned more about the community in an article in the Smithfield Review, 1999. I’ve been to Rock Castle Gorge, with the intention of staying overnight until the ranger said they had alot of bear problems in that area (June=berries everywhere). But I day-hiked it and saw the CCC camp remains and the Austin house. I want to go back. I went to Falls Ridge Preserve…interesting but there was something creepy about it too so I haven’t wanted to go back there.
Comment by HokieTrax — January 28, 2012 @ 10:32 am
Actually Mark Taylor did the Falls Ridge hike column. So I can’t blame you for sending me on a creepy hike.
Comment by HokieTrax — January 28, 2012 @ 10:43 am
29 this Morning up to 43 already,forcasting highs in the low to mid 50`s.A great day to be outside!
Comment by Mike in Marshall — January 28, 2012 @ 11:03 am
I think we all know the Old Farmers Almanac is for entertainment use only and that’s why we had stuff like this for our current weekend here in SW VA.
Jan 27-31: Snow showers, cold.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — January 28, 2012 @ 11:14 am
………and the same Old Farmers Almanac says that February will be 5 degrees below normal. Bet not.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — January 28, 2012 @ 11:16 am
ISL…FYI, If the Bastardi Family says a snow storm is coming, then it is coming. So batten down the hatches, buy milk & bread, it’s coming!!!!
Just kidding people! NO SNOW FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS, maybe not the rest of this winter.
Comment by Captain Glen Bastardi — January 28, 2012 @ 11:36 am
Glen, so is my ski trip in two weeks likely to be a washout?
Comment by John from Ruckersville — January 28, 2012 @ 1:25 pm
I am aware captain, I just thought I’d mention it simply because Bastardi can now claim it showed up on the model and thus it wasn’t his fault.
12z GFS has a double barreled low that would still bring some ice. Skeptical I still am…
Comment by ice storm lover — January 28, 2012 @ 2:23 pm
John: Of all the times all winter to go, so far, 2 weeks may work out to be about the best yet. If the normal cold happens, Snowshoe will probably be well below freezing for snowmaking and maybe have some upslope squalls.
I will say this, for what it’s worth: I wrote very publicly at the start of December that I just wasn’t feeling it this winter, despite some indicators that seemed to point to decent winter potential. That proved to be a good hunch. It just didn’t seem like it was heading the right way for that in November to me. By the same token, I’m kinda feeling that we’ll get a bit of winter action in February, maybe something like the 10th-24th time frame. Just a hunch with only barebones, very thin factual support right now. I’m not expecting a 1959-60 style late winter onslaught on a 1993-style superstorm. Just a couple or 3 periods of some white and at least normal type temps.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 28, 2012 @ 3:13 pm
John from Ruckersville…NO! Ski-Trip is still on man! Snowshoe will have snow & plenty of it. It maybe 60 here, but it’s usually 30 there. They have been making snow nightly & are up to 54 trails open. Cupp is open top to bottom & Upper Shay’s is open too. So, please don’t cancel you ski trip. Wet granular snow is better than no snow at all.
BTW, had the pleasure the other week to stop by the Blue Ridge Cafe for lunch. Good eats! Came in handy before going to Barboursville Winery for some tastings. Wife cleaned them out & bought 2 cases.
ISL…glad you mentioned it. I needed a good laugh…lol! Bastardi always amazes me but I feel sorry for him & all the Mets out there that are taking on the chin when Mother Nature decides otherwise. It is my sincere hope that there just might be a HUGE SUPER STORM OF THE CENTURY BIG UN to make him look good for once. poor ol’ Joe B has taken a rough beating for the team this year like my Steelers did.
Comment by Captain Glen Quagmire — January 28, 2012 @ 3:59 pm
I’ll continue to listen to the VTF Friday weather show as long as our Arkansas Wonder will keep showcasing that great southern accent with words like “satellite” and “lightning”! I too, wish it was more than five minutes.
Comment by Sam Oakey — January 28, 2012 @ 4:38 pm
Funny you mentioned BlueRidge Cafe, we are headed there for dinner. My parents are up for a visit from Giles and they love that place. We are just setting here talking about the winter that wasnt. They also believe just as Kevin does that February may hold some surprises for us. I just want to see one big snow before the grass on the golf course gets cranking again!
Comment by jared french — January 28, 2012 @ 4:59 pm
Here’s something for John of Ruckersville to consider: CPC map (computer generated today, but similar to recent versions) for Feb. 5-11 really starts pulling the warm air back to the west and puts all of our region squarely in “N” — equal chances of warm, cold and normal. Two out of three of those would be very good for you headed to Snowshoe.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 28, 2012 @ 5:06 pm
Sam: You would find this humorous, knowing your interests. Also pertains to HokieTrax’s 10:32 a.m. comment (which I’m very much appreciative of!). A decade or so ago when I was writing about hiking a lot, I told someone I was a “hiking columnist” and they thought I said I was a “hockey columnist” because of the way I said “hiking” in my Arkansas drawl.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 28, 2012 @ 5:12 pm
No 60 for Roanoke today … only 56 for a high. No 50 for Blacksburg … only 48. Clouds and the early arrival of the cold front cut the warmth off just a bit.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 28, 2012 @ 5:31 pm
If the 12Z GFS is right about the cold-air damming high — there might be some shot at wintry precipitation next weekend. Big IF, those highs are hard to pinpoint until within about 72 hours before an event.
Overrunning moisture into cold-air damming — it’s the best shot for a winter storm without a wholesale pattern flip. We had a taste of it last weekend.
The link below is the 12Z GFS for next Sunday morning — the H over northern Vermont is well-placed for cold-air damming, which shows up well as the 0C 850-mb blue curving line right through our regoin.
http://blogs.roanoke.com/weatherjournal/files/2012/01/12ZGFS192hr0128.gif
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 28, 2012 @ 5:58 pm
That looks like a sleet/freezing rain event waiting to happen.
Comment by Brandon R. — January 28, 2012 @ 6:42 pm
The way the La Nina is weaking, I’m thinking early March is going to be the best time to see snow this “winter”.
Comment by Rick in Wytheville — January 28, 2012 @ 7:05 pm
DGEX also has super cold air damming for next Sunday, though I think it would be more ice than snow (the DGEX has 6-10 inches). Then again, it’s the DGEX, so just take it for what’s it worth. Which isn’t much.
Comment by ice storm lover — January 28, 2012 @ 7:08 pm
I will say this Captain, I do think Bastardi is right about Global Warming, but that’s pretty much it.
I see what everyone else says, then I sort of do my own little research. Weather has always been a hobby of mine, though of course I’m not that educated as they are.
Comment by ice storm lover — January 28, 2012 @ 7:10 pm
Yeah that’s why I said “wintry precipitation” and not snow. Snow, even a sizeable amount, would be possible if the cold air were deep enough for long enough, but sleet and freezing rain figure into cold-air damming events more often than not, even if there is several inches of snow on the front end.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 28, 2012 @ 7:22 pm
Finished splittinup my woodpile today. My forecast: It will last til plantin time or it won’t. You heard it here first.
Comment by wdbrand — January 28, 2012 @ 7:30 pm
I don’t think we saw 50F up here on the ridge today. I did see 49 F in Christiansburg this afternoon. Outside right now, it is 31 and the windchill says it’s 27 F.
So wdbrand – you finished splittin. Good for you. I have a feeling that late February and into March we may be putting a big dent in our wood piles.
Comment by Doppler Carol — January 28, 2012 @ 8:37 pm
At this point in this winter I’m ready for some hype! Even if it doesn’t happen. Just something to get excited about!
Comment by Bedford snowman — January 28, 2012 @ 10:25 pm
Hype would be this:
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TO BE PARALYZED BY MAJOR WINTER STORM NEXT WEEKEND
What you’ll get here is this:
There’s a forecast model showing some cold-air damming that might cause some snow or ice or mix. But it probably won’t happen.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 28, 2012 @ 10:28 pm
HE’S ALIVE!! Sam Oakey, that is. LOL Even though his business is “dead” and people are “dying” to meet him … Very “grave” business. Great to hear from you, Mr. Vice President.
I did not get all that much sleep the last two nights, and my body let me know it late in the route this afternoon. Weather was excellent, for me that is, and considering that it is Jan. 28th. It was “shed the outer clothing” type of day. Started out with both a sweater and light jacket on plus a wool stocking cap. Light jacket came off about 10:30, in another hour I switched the light jacket for the sweater and switched hats to the baseball cap style. That was fine until the sun disappeared for about an hour and the wind picked up and decided to go back to the stocking cap. Had just started the next-to-last loop and suddenly the wind died and the sun re-appeared, and my head started sweating. Back to baseball cap for the last loop.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 28, 2012 @ 10:44 pm
I love this blog!!! Thanks Kevin!!!! I read it every day!!! Usually a few times a day!!!! You’all are the best!!!!!
Comment by Jamie — January 28, 2012 @ 10:49 pm
Rick, for what were you hunting? Any luck? “Good” luck, that is. I bet you had heavy frost down your way at that hour, unless you had more of a breeze than lower elevations of Roanoke. I had no frost here, but there was a little on the postal trucks. My dad went deer hunting for decades in central Maine during the week before Thanksgiving, and he surprised little Dougie once when he came back, because he said that there was two inches of snow on the ground for the first 3 days they were there. I said that I bet that made the hunting difficult, trudging around in snow, but he said “Nope. It made it terrific. You could track them much easier.” I think they came home with two deer that time, a rarity.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 28, 2012 @ 10:57 pm
Hey, cold-weather lovers, listen up! Good news. The AO becomes substantially negative for 7 of the ten days starting with Groundhog Day (the 14-day forecast on the AO page of CPC). In fact, it is quite negative right now, but will be headed back upwards for the next few days. Will it be enough to push the very cold temps in northern Canada down into the eastern USA? Even the Weather Channel thinks so, starting next weekend. Saw that this early morning.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 28, 2012 @ 11:11 pm
There’s another factor involved in getting the cold air southward — not the NAO. Will be discussing that in blog post soon.
Comment by Kevin Myatt — January 28, 2012 @ 11:12 pm
From the Blacksburg area earlier today: Sounds from a tree. CRACK!! …… CRASH!!!! …. “OUCH!!”
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 28, 2012 @ 11:13 pm
Yeah, I just checked the NAO page, Barry Gibb Myatt, and I see what you mean. I will leave the details for you and your next thread. The NAO …. you either love it or hate it. The last two winters the cold weather lovers loved it … but definitely NOT this winter. Of course my feelings are the exact opposite. “Good NAO, nice NAO.” Now if you will really make the ancient letter carrier with the scraggly beard happy and become very negative starting in late May and continuing through August, causing a cool summer, I will REALLY be happy.
Comment by Doug Griggs of SW Roanoke County — January 28, 2012 @ 11:30 pm